Invece l'economia Giapponese sembrerebbe in rallentamento (come anche quelle europee daltronde.
carry resurge?
Japan's GDP Growth Slows, Reducing Rate-Rise Chance (Update5)
By Lily Nonomiya
Tokyo's skyline. Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economic growth slowed more than economists expected in the second quarter, making it less likely the central bank will raise interest rates next week after a global credit crunch.
The world's second-largest economy expanded at a 0.5 percent annualized rate in the three months ended June 30 from a revised 3.2 percent in the first quarter, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for 0.9 percent growth.
The report is the last main economic indicator before the central bank's Aug. 22-23 meeting to decide whether to raise the key overnight lending rate from 0.5 percent, the lowest among major economies. Investors already pared bets of a rate increase last week after global overnight interest rates surged because of rising losses linked to U.S. subprime mortgages, prompting central banks to inject cash into their financial systems.
``This won't encourage the Bank of Japan to go ahead with a rate hike in August, especially with the turmoil in the markets,'' said Takashi Omori, chief economist at UBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. ``September is very likely, unless there is further turmoil.''
The yen traded at 118.30 per dollar at 12:02 p.m. in Tokyo, from 118.27 before the report. The yield on Japan's benchmark 10-year bond climbed half a basis point to 1.72 percent. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.5 percent.
Market Turmoil
The Bank of Japan pumped 600 billion yen ($5.1 billion) into the financial system today after adding 1 trillion yen on Aug. 10. Central banks in the U.S., Europe, Japan, Australia and Canada added $136 billion last week to avert a credit shortage.
Investors see a 27 percent chance of rate increase next week, down from as high as 75 percent on Aug. 9, according to Credit Suisse Group calculations based on interest payments.
Tomoko Fujii, a senior economist and strategist in Tokyo at Bank of America N.A., pushed back her rate forecast from August to September last week because of the market turmoil. Waiting until the Sept. 18-19 board meeting will allow the bank to fully gauge the effect of the subprime issue on markets, Fujii said.
The economy grew 0.3 percent in nominal terms, which don't take into account price changes, the Cabinet Office said, faster than the 0.2 percent expected by economists.
GDP Deflator
The GDP deflator, a broad measure of price changes, fell 0.3 percent from the same period a year earlier, less than analysts' predictions of a 0.4 percent drop. The domestic demand deflator, regarded by economists as key measure of price trends, rose 0.2 percent, the third increase in the past nine years.
``The fact that the domestic demand deflator is positive is reassuring as it shows the economy is making progress toward emerging from deflation,'' said Junko Nishioka, an economist at ABN Amro Securities in Tokyo.
Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota said the end of deflation remains ``in sight.''
``Japan's economic recovery will continue, driven by domestic demand,'' Ota told reporters in Tokyo.
Consumer spending rose 0.4 percent and capital investment climbed 1.2 percent, both matching economists' expectations.
Consumers, whose spending accounts for more than half of the economy, are losing the incentive to spend because of falling wages and higher taxes. Household sentiment fell to a two-year low in July and wages slumped for a seventh month, the longest losing streak in three years.
Tax Burden
``Tax-burden increases are weighing on sentiment, so any rebound in spending is going to be limited,'' said Junichi Makino, a senior economist at Daiwa Research Institute in Tokyo. ``Consumers aren't going to be able to drive growth, meaning exports and companies will need to step up.''
Falling wages are reducing inflationary pressure. Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.1 percent in June from a year earlier, a fifth monthly drop.
Reports in the past month suggest consumer spending will wane, increasing the burden on exporters and manufacturers to drive the economy's expansion.
Machinery orders, a key gauge of companies' investment plans, are forecast to climb this quarter and production reversed a three-month slump in June, helped by the fastest export growth in five months.
Companies are planning to increase spending at the quickest pace since 1990, a survey showed this month. Expanding business investment signals companies are confident in the outlook for demand and may increase production and hiring. Japan's unemployment rate fell to a nine-year low of 3.7 percent in June.
Sharp, Komatsu
Sharp Corp. and construction equipment maker Komatsu Ltd. will boost spending on factories and equipment. Toyota Motor Corp., Japan's largest automaker, said it had record profits in the period ended June 30.
The contribution to GDP from net exports -- or the difference between exports and imports -- was unchanged. Economists expected a 0.1 percentage point detraction.
Exports gained 0.9 percent, more than the 0.6 percent expected. Imports rose 0.8 percent, less than analysts' 1.6 percent prediction.
A separate report today showed Japan's current account surplus, the broadest measure of trade, widened 48 percent to 1.52 trillion yen in June from a year earlier.
Companies reduced inventories in the quarter, subtracting 0.1 percentage point from growth. Economists expected the inventory contribution to GDP to be unchanged.
Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui has signaled he won't be deterred by a weak GDP report. The bank expects growth to slow in the second quarter and that won't determine the outcome of the August policy meeting, he said on July 12.
To contact the reporter on this story: Lily Nonomiya in Tokyo at
[email protected]
Last Updated: August 12, 2007 23:08 EDT