Bund, Tbond e la matrixiana allo yen vm18 (3 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione gipa69
- Data di Inizio
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
QuickS ha scritto:Gipa sono troppi
ma tu come fai a mantenere la lucidita con tutta la roba che leggi?
cioè alla fine troppi report non disorientano?
ma mica ho postato tutto quello che leggo......cmq l'importante è essere veloci ad estrapolare quello che serve ed in questo mi aiuta il fatto che l'inglese l'ho imparato leggendo ed ascoltando materia finanziaria, in questo modo ho imparato a scindere ciò che serve da ciò che non serve anche se qualche volta succede di leggere fuffa (e anche tra quello postato non sempre c'è roba interessante).
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Appendice
All'analisi di ieri sera manca una appendice economica:
sebbene il focus degli investitori sia tutto sulla crisi finanziaria ed al momento i futures USA propendono per la teoria del rimbalzo occorre tenere presente che il focus delle banche Centrali è sui rischi inflazionistici.
Il prezzo delle commodities sta rimbalzando insieme ad i mercati e questo pone dei timori sulla crescita che i dati dell'inflazione Cinese sembrano confermare.
L'inflazione dalla Cina è sicuramente un dato da monitorare con grande attenzione essendo la Cina il più grande esportatore del mondo il rischio che esporti anche inflazione si fa sempre più elevato sebbene al momento le pressioni inflazionistiche sono tutte legate al settore alimentare mentre l'inflazione ex-food è ancora negativa.
Ma se avvenisse trasmissione, le pressioni inflazionistiche globali crescerebbero con conseguenze sui tassi e quindi sulla situazione economica globale.
All'analisi di ieri sera manca una appendice economica:
sebbene il focus degli investitori sia tutto sulla crisi finanziaria ed al momento i futures USA propendono per la teoria del rimbalzo occorre tenere presente che il focus delle banche Centrali è sui rischi inflazionistici.
Il prezzo delle commodities sta rimbalzando insieme ad i mercati e questo pone dei timori sulla crescita che i dati dell'inflazione Cinese sembrano confermare.
L'inflazione dalla Cina è sicuramente un dato da monitorare con grande attenzione essendo la Cina il più grande esportatore del mondo il rischio che esporti anche inflazione si fa sempre più elevato sebbene al momento le pressioni inflazionistiche sono tutte legate al settore alimentare mentre l'inflazione ex-food è ancora negativa.
Ma se avvenisse trasmissione, le pressioni inflazionistiche globali crescerebbero con conseguenze sui tassi e quindi sulla situazione economica globale.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
China's Inflation Rate Jumps to Highest in 10 Years (Update3)
By Nipa Piboontanasawat
A butcher in Guangzhou Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Inflation in China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, accelerated to the highest level in more than 10 years, fueling speculation that the government may raise interest rates for a fourth time in 2007.
Consumer prices jumped 5.6 percent in July from a year earlier, after gaining 4.4 percent in June, the National Bureau of Statistics said today. That beat the 4.6 percent median estimate of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Food costs climbed 15.4 percent after a shortage of pigs pushed up meat prices and bad weather destroyed crops. The central bank is concerned that food inflation will spread, overheating an economy forecast to contribute more to global growth than the U.S. this year.
``It's still mainly a food-price phenomenon, but the central bank will continue to be worried,'' said Huang Yiping, chief Asia economist at Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong. ``We expect another interest-rate hike this year and one more increase in the reserve ratio for banks.''
The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond rose 0.03 percentage point to 4.34 percent at 12:23 p.m. in Shanghai. The benchmark CSI 300 Index of stocks rose 0.5 percent.
The official China Securities Journal said last week that the inflation rate would probably be 5.6 percent, citing unidentified people. The central bank said on Aug. 8 that consumer-price gains aren't solely from ``temporary factors.''
Interest-Rate Increase
China's economy, the world's fourth largest, expanded 11.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace in more than 12 years, on exports and investment. Cash from record overseas sales raises inflation risks.
``With this massive headline number, plus evidence of heightening concern of the central bank, the chances of another rate hike soon are very high,'' said Stephen Green, senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai.
The 3.5 percent rate for the first seven months is above the central bank's target ceiling for the year of 3 percent.
Economists are split on the risk posed by consumer prices.
Liang Hong, at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Hong Kong, has said inflation is entering a ``perilous zone'' and today predicted ``decisive tightening measures.''
``China's inflation is getting out of control and the government is behind the curve,'' Tao Dong, chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse Group in Hong Kong, said in a July 30 note.
Others say the jump in prices is temporary and contained. Non-food inflation slowed to 0.9 percent in July from at least 1 percent in each of the previous five months.
Meat, Eggs
Inflation remains almost entirely food-driven and is likely to drop rapidly ``once supply disruptions have worked themselves out,'' Julian Jessop and Mark Williams, economists at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, wrote in a note.
Food accounts for a third of the consumer-price index. Meat costs surged 45 percent last month from a year earlier and egg prices climbed 31 percent.
China may use administrative measures such as food-price regulation rather than monetary-policy tools, to curb inflation, said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong.
Central banks globally are battling inflation as surging world growth forces up food and commodity prices.
Australia's central bank today raised its inflation forecast for this year to 3 percent from 2.5 percent, a week after increasing the benchmark interest rate to an 11-year high.
U.S. Inflation
Consumer prices rose 2.7 percent in the U.S. in June from a year earlier and 2.4 percent in the U.K. In India, the inflation rate was 4.45 percent in the last week of July.
Besides raising the benchmark one-year lending rate to 6.84 percent, the People's Bank of China has ordered commercial banks to set aside larger reserves on six occasions this year.
Wage gains, energy costs and expectations of price increases have broadened inflation pressures, the central bank said last week.
The central government has told officials in regions where inflation has surged to refrain from raising prices this year. It's ordered investigations into price-fixing by food producers, wholesalers and retailers after complaints about instant-noodle and fast-food costs.
The government may be balancing higher food costs and the risk of increased expectations for inflation against the benefit of improved farmers' incomes, according to Capital Economics.
Tiananmen Square
``This is a delicate calculation: high inflation fueled the anger which culminated in the 1989 Tiananmen protests,'' wrote Williams and Jessop. The army sent tanks and soldiers to clear democracy protestors from Tiananmen Square in Beijing on June 4, 1989, killing as many as 1,000 people, by some accounts.
Inflation has outstripped returns on bank savings. That has encouraged households to switch money to a stock market that the government is trying to cool.
Household savings fell in July by 9.1 billion yuan ($1.2 billion) from the previous month. The CSI 300 Index has climbed 133 percent this year.
China will overtake the U.S. this year as the largest contributor to global growth, according to the International Monetary Fund. The IMF forecasts the nation will account for 15.6 percent of the expansion, versus 15.4 percent for the U.S.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at [email protected]
Last Updated: August 13, 2007 01:07 EDT
By Nipa Piboontanasawat
A butcher in Guangzhou Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Inflation in China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, accelerated to the highest level in more than 10 years, fueling speculation that the government may raise interest rates for a fourth time in 2007.
Consumer prices jumped 5.6 percent in July from a year earlier, after gaining 4.4 percent in June, the National Bureau of Statistics said today. That beat the 4.6 percent median estimate of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Food costs climbed 15.4 percent after a shortage of pigs pushed up meat prices and bad weather destroyed crops. The central bank is concerned that food inflation will spread, overheating an economy forecast to contribute more to global growth than the U.S. this year.
``It's still mainly a food-price phenomenon, but the central bank will continue to be worried,'' said Huang Yiping, chief Asia economist at Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong. ``We expect another interest-rate hike this year and one more increase in the reserve ratio for banks.''
The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond rose 0.03 percentage point to 4.34 percent at 12:23 p.m. in Shanghai. The benchmark CSI 300 Index of stocks rose 0.5 percent.
The official China Securities Journal said last week that the inflation rate would probably be 5.6 percent, citing unidentified people. The central bank said on Aug. 8 that consumer-price gains aren't solely from ``temporary factors.''
Interest-Rate Increase
China's economy, the world's fourth largest, expanded 11.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace in more than 12 years, on exports and investment. Cash from record overseas sales raises inflation risks.
``With this massive headline number, plus evidence of heightening concern of the central bank, the chances of another rate hike soon are very high,'' said Stephen Green, senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai.
The 3.5 percent rate for the first seven months is above the central bank's target ceiling for the year of 3 percent.
Economists are split on the risk posed by consumer prices.
Liang Hong, at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Hong Kong, has said inflation is entering a ``perilous zone'' and today predicted ``decisive tightening measures.''
``China's inflation is getting out of control and the government is behind the curve,'' Tao Dong, chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse Group in Hong Kong, said in a July 30 note.
Others say the jump in prices is temporary and contained. Non-food inflation slowed to 0.9 percent in July from at least 1 percent in each of the previous five months.
Meat, Eggs
Inflation remains almost entirely food-driven and is likely to drop rapidly ``once supply disruptions have worked themselves out,'' Julian Jessop and Mark Williams, economists at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, wrote in a note.
Food accounts for a third of the consumer-price index. Meat costs surged 45 percent last month from a year earlier and egg prices climbed 31 percent.
China may use administrative measures such as food-price regulation rather than monetary-policy tools, to curb inflation, said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong.
Central banks globally are battling inflation as surging world growth forces up food and commodity prices.
Australia's central bank today raised its inflation forecast for this year to 3 percent from 2.5 percent, a week after increasing the benchmark interest rate to an 11-year high.
U.S. Inflation
Consumer prices rose 2.7 percent in the U.S. in June from a year earlier and 2.4 percent in the U.K. In India, the inflation rate was 4.45 percent in the last week of July.
Besides raising the benchmark one-year lending rate to 6.84 percent, the People's Bank of China has ordered commercial banks to set aside larger reserves on six occasions this year.
Wage gains, energy costs and expectations of price increases have broadened inflation pressures, the central bank said last week.
The central government has told officials in regions where inflation has surged to refrain from raising prices this year. It's ordered investigations into price-fixing by food producers, wholesalers and retailers after complaints about instant-noodle and fast-food costs.
The government may be balancing higher food costs and the risk of increased expectations for inflation against the benefit of improved farmers' incomes, according to Capital Economics.
Tiananmen Square
``This is a delicate calculation: high inflation fueled the anger which culminated in the 1989 Tiananmen protests,'' wrote Williams and Jessop. The army sent tanks and soldiers to clear democracy protestors from Tiananmen Square in Beijing on June 4, 1989, killing as many as 1,000 people, by some accounts.
Inflation has outstripped returns on bank savings. That has encouraged households to switch money to a stock market that the government is trying to cool.
Household savings fell in July by 9.1 billion yuan ($1.2 billion) from the previous month. The CSI 300 Index has climbed 133 percent this year.
China will overtake the U.S. this year as the largest contributor to global growth, according to the International Monetary Fund. The IMF forecasts the nation will account for 15.6 percent of the expansion, versus 15.4 percent for the U.S.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at [email protected]
Last Updated: August 13, 2007 01:07 EDT
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Invece l'economia Giapponese sembrerebbe in rallentamento (come anche quelle europee daltronde.
carry resurge?
Japan's GDP Growth Slows, Reducing Rate-Rise Chance (Update5)
By Lily Nonomiya
Tokyo's skyline. Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economic growth slowed more than economists expected in the second quarter, making it less likely the central bank will raise interest rates next week after a global credit crunch.
The world's second-largest economy expanded at a 0.5 percent annualized rate in the three months ended June 30 from a revised 3.2 percent in the first quarter, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for 0.9 percent growth.
The report is the last main economic indicator before the central bank's Aug. 22-23 meeting to decide whether to raise the key overnight lending rate from 0.5 percent, the lowest among major economies. Investors already pared bets of a rate increase last week after global overnight interest rates surged because of rising losses linked to U.S. subprime mortgages, prompting central banks to inject cash into their financial systems.
``This won't encourage the Bank of Japan to go ahead with a rate hike in August, especially with the turmoil in the markets,'' said Takashi Omori, chief economist at UBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. ``September is very likely, unless there is further turmoil.''
The yen traded at 118.30 per dollar at 12:02 p.m. in Tokyo, from 118.27 before the report. The yield on Japan's benchmark 10-year bond climbed half a basis point to 1.72 percent. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.5 percent.
Market Turmoil
The Bank of Japan pumped 600 billion yen ($5.1 billion) into the financial system today after adding 1 trillion yen on Aug. 10. Central banks in the U.S., Europe, Japan, Australia and Canada added $136 billion last week to avert a credit shortage.
Investors see a 27 percent chance of rate increase next week, down from as high as 75 percent on Aug. 9, according to Credit Suisse Group calculations based on interest payments.
Tomoko Fujii, a senior economist and strategist in Tokyo at Bank of America N.A., pushed back her rate forecast from August to September last week because of the market turmoil. Waiting until the Sept. 18-19 board meeting will allow the bank to fully gauge the effect of the subprime issue on markets, Fujii said.
The economy grew 0.3 percent in nominal terms, which don't take into account price changes, the Cabinet Office said, faster than the 0.2 percent expected by economists.
GDP Deflator
The GDP deflator, a broad measure of price changes, fell 0.3 percent from the same period a year earlier, less than analysts' predictions of a 0.4 percent drop. The domestic demand deflator, regarded by economists as key measure of price trends, rose 0.2 percent, the third increase in the past nine years.
``The fact that the domestic demand deflator is positive is reassuring as it shows the economy is making progress toward emerging from deflation,'' said Junko Nishioka, an economist at ABN Amro Securities in Tokyo.
Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota said the end of deflation remains ``in sight.''
``Japan's economic recovery will continue, driven by domestic demand,'' Ota told reporters in Tokyo.
Consumer spending rose 0.4 percent and capital investment climbed 1.2 percent, both matching economists' expectations.
Consumers, whose spending accounts for more than half of the economy, are losing the incentive to spend because of falling wages and higher taxes. Household sentiment fell to a two-year low in July and wages slumped for a seventh month, the longest losing streak in three years.
Tax Burden
``Tax-burden increases are weighing on sentiment, so any rebound in spending is going to be limited,'' said Junichi Makino, a senior economist at Daiwa Research Institute in Tokyo. ``Consumers aren't going to be able to drive growth, meaning exports and companies will need to step up.''
Falling wages are reducing inflationary pressure. Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.1 percent in June from a year earlier, a fifth monthly drop.
Reports in the past month suggest consumer spending will wane, increasing the burden on exporters and manufacturers to drive the economy's expansion.
Machinery orders, a key gauge of companies' investment plans, are forecast to climb this quarter and production reversed a three-month slump in June, helped by the fastest export growth in five months.
Companies are planning to increase spending at the quickest pace since 1990, a survey showed this month. Expanding business investment signals companies are confident in the outlook for demand and may increase production and hiring. Japan's unemployment rate fell to a nine-year low of 3.7 percent in June.
Sharp, Komatsu
Sharp Corp. and construction equipment maker Komatsu Ltd. will boost spending on factories and equipment. Toyota Motor Corp., Japan's largest automaker, said it had record profits in the period ended June 30.
The contribution to GDP from net exports -- or the difference between exports and imports -- was unchanged. Economists expected a 0.1 percentage point detraction.
Exports gained 0.9 percent, more than the 0.6 percent expected. Imports rose 0.8 percent, less than analysts' 1.6 percent prediction.
A separate report today showed Japan's current account surplus, the broadest measure of trade, widened 48 percent to 1.52 trillion yen in June from a year earlier.
Companies reduced inventories in the quarter, subtracting 0.1 percentage point from growth. Economists expected the inventory contribution to GDP to be unchanged.
Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui has signaled he won't be deterred by a weak GDP report. The bank expects growth to slow in the second quarter and that won't determine the outcome of the August policy meeting, he said on July 12.
To contact the reporter on this story: Lily Nonomiya in Tokyo at [email protected]
Last Updated: August 12, 2007 23:08 EDT
carry resurge?
Japan's GDP Growth Slows, Reducing Rate-Rise Chance (Update5)
By Lily Nonomiya
Tokyo's skyline. Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economic growth slowed more than economists expected in the second quarter, making it less likely the central bank will raise interest rates next week after a global credit crunch.
The world's second-largest economy expanded at a 0.5 percent annualized rate in the three months ended June 30 from a revised 3.2 percent in the first quarter, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for 0.9 percent growth.
The report is the last main economic indicator before the central bank's Aug. 22-23 meeting to decide whether to raise the key overnight lending rate from 0.5 percent, the lowest among major economies. Investors already pared bets of a rate increase last week after global overnight interest rates surged because of rising losses linked to U.S. subprime mortgages, prompting central banks to inject cash into their financial systems.
``This won't encourage the Bank of Japan to go ahead with a rate hike in August, especially with the turmoil in the markets,'' said Takashi Omori, chief economist at UBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. ``September is very likely, unless there is further turmoil.''
The yen traded at 118.30 per dollar at 12:02 p.m. in Tokyo, from 118.27 before the report. The yield on Japan's benchmark 10-year bond climbed half a basis point to 1.72 percent. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.5 percent.
Market Turmoil
The Bank of Japan pumped 600 billion yen ($5.1 billion) into the financial system today after adding 1 trillion yen on Aug. 10. Central banks in the U.S., Europe, Japan, Australia and Canada added $136 billion last week to avert a credit shortage.
Investors see a 27 percent chance of rate increase next week, down from as high as 75 percent on Aug. 9, according to Credit Suisse Group calculations based on interest payments.
Tomoko Fujii, a senior economist and strategist in Tokyo at Bank of America N.A., pushed back her rate forecast from August to September last week because of the market turmoil. Waiting until the Sept. 18-19 board meeting will allow the bank to fully gauge the effect of the subprime issue on markets, Fujii said.
The economy grew 0.3 percent in nominal terms, which don't take into account price changes, the Cabinet Office said, faster than the 0.2 percent expected by economists.
GDP Deflator
The GDP deflator, a broad measure of price changes, fell 0.3 percent from the same period a year earlier, less than analysts' predictions of a 0.4 percent drop. The domestic demand deflator, regarded by economists as key measure of price trends, rose 0.2 percent, the third increase in the past nine years.
``The fact that the domestic demand deflator is positive is reassuring as it shows the economy is making progress toward emerging from deflation,'' said Junko Nishioka, an economist at ABN Amro Securities in Tokyo.
Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota said the end of deflation remains ``in sight.''
``Japan's economic recovery will continue, driven by domestic demand,'' Ota told reporters in Tokyo.
Consumer spending rose 0.4 percent and capital investment climbed 1.2 percent, both matching economists' expectations.
Consumers, whose spending accounts for more than half of the economy, are losing the incentive to spend because of falling wages and higher taxes. Household sentiment fell to a two-year low in July and wages slumped for a seventh month, the longest losing streak in three years.
Tax Burden
``Tax-burden increases are weighing on sentiment, so any rebound in spending is going to be limited,'' said Junichi Makino, a senior economist at Daiwa Research Institute in Tokyo. ``Consumers aren't going to be able to drive growth, meaning exports and companies will need to step up.''
Falling wages are reducing inflationary pressure. Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.1 percent in June from a year earlier, a fifth monthly drop.
Reports in the past month suggest consumer spending will wane, increasing the burden on exporters and manufacturers to drive the economy's expansion.
Machinery orders, a key gauge of companies' investment plans, are forecast to climb this quarter and production reversed a three-month slump in June, helped by the fastest export growth in five months.
Companies are planning to increase spending at the quickest pace since 1990, a survey showed this month. Expanding business investment signals companies are confident in the outlook for demand and may increase production and hiring. Japan's unemployment rate fell to a nine-year low of 3.7 percent in June.
Sharp, Komatsu
Sharp Corp. and construction equipment maker Komatsu Ltd. will boost spending on factories and equipment. Toyota Motor Corp., Japan's largest automaker, said it had record profits in the period ended June 30.
The contribution to GDP from net exports -- or the difference between exports and imports -- was unchanged. Economists expected a 0.1 percentage point detraction.
Exports gained 0.9 percent, more than the 0.6 percent expected. Imports rose 0.8 percent, less than analysts' 1.6 percent prediction.
A separate report today showed Japan's current account surplus, the broadest measure of trade, widened 48 percent to 1.52 trillion yen in June from a year earlier.
Companies reduced inventories in the quarter, subtracting 0.1 percentage point from growth. Economists expected the inventory contribution to GDP to be unchanged.
Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui has signaled he won't be deterred by a weak GDP report. The bank expects growth to slow in the second quarter and that won't determine the outcome of the August policy meeting, he said on July 12.
To contact the reporter on this story: Lily Nonomiya in Tokyo at [email protected]
Last Updated: August 12, 2007 23:08 EDT
feliceanima
Forumer attivo
Gipa praticamente ci stai dicendo che le Banche Centrali non potranno abbassare il costo del denaro in presenza di forze inflazionistiche e questo un elemento controproducente per poter aiutare la macchina economica
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
ronumaar
Nuovo forumer
BCE
Buongiorno Banda,
vi seguo sempre dalle Ramblas de Barcelona, dove vivo da 15 anni.
Complimenti per il grande 3d ed ecco la mia piccola goccia, un articolo che credo interessante per spiegare ai non addetti ai lavori (come me) perché tutto questo dineros dalla BCE.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/IH11Dk01.html
In pratica, dato che in Europa siamo vecchi, risparmiatori e poco coraggiosi, le nostre banche europee, per ingrossare il business, hanno comprato i mutui spazzature che gli americans vendono ai mexicanos!! E i cocci, chi li paga?
Saludos!!
Roberto
Buongiorno Banda,
vi seguo sempre dalle Ramblas de Barcelona, dove vivo da 15 anni.
Complimenti per il grande 3d ed ecco la mia piccola goccia, un articolo che credo interessante per spiegare ai non addetti ai lavori (come me) perché tutto questo dineros dalla BCE.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/IH11Dk01.html
In pratica, dato che in Europa siamo vecchi, risparmiatori e poco coraggiosi, le nostre banche europee, per ingrossare il business, hanno comprato i mutui spazzature che gli americans vendono ai mexicanos!! E i cocci, chi li paga?
Saludos!!
Roberto
