Bund, Tbond e la matrixiana allo yen vm18 (4 lettori)

[gipa69]

ABN Amro - Global FX Daily

Weekly CFTC/IMM statistics signal a reduction in the carry trade:

The report shows IMM non-commercial or speculative positions from Tuesday 07 August. The report showed a further reduction of interest in FX carry trades. Carry trades in JPY, CHF, AUD, MXN and CHF were all reduced in what appears to be a further step away from risk following the prior week’s big de-leveraging of speculative positioning in FX and other asset classes.

As a consequence, the IMM’s concentration of speculative positions in EUR-USD has grown more extreme, with 32 percent of the IMM’s speculative bets concentrated in EUR-USD. Speculative open interest fell another $1bn to $76bn, which is a 4-month low.

On overnight events and the outlook for continued risk reduction:

In Asian FX, yuan weakened versus USD in part due to remarks by an unnamed PBoC official noting how USD assets formed an important part of China’s foreign exchange reserves, as “the dollar enjoys a major position in the international monetary system.” Meanwhile, China’s CPI soared to the highest level in 10 years. CPI rose 5.6% y/y in July fuelling speculation that interest rates may need to be raised for a fourth time this year. There does seem to be an overall sentiment in the market that the credit problems from last week may worsen before they get can better. The risk of further risk reduction continues to drive currency markets, and thus larger corrections in high yield currencies are likely and the rebound in JPY is likely to continue.

Barclays Capital - Global FX Daily

Barclays also expects current market uncertainty to persist. However, unlike UBS and ING, Barclays’ view is that the USD is unlikely to benefit from continued market turbulence:

Prior to the money market issues of last week, a sequence of monetary policy pronouncements by major central banks suggested broad agreement that prospects were reasonably bright. Following the turbulence at the end of last week though, it is difficult to know quite how policy makers are likely to respond, which is adding to an already extremely uncertain picture. We think that financial market concerns will probably persists, in the short run at least, and that investors are likely to continue to move towards more defensive positions in their portfolios in the near term. As discussed in the FX Weekly Brief, the relationship between equities and exchages rates suggests that the NZD, AUD and NOK are the most vulnerable to continued equity weakness, whereas the JPY and CHF will be the obvious beneficiaries of risk reduction. The USD however is unlikely to appreciate if market turbulence continues. In fact, we think it is vulnerable to growing risk of increased home bias and the possibility that the fallout of the subprime problem will further delay the recovery of the US housing market.

Dresdner Kleinwort - FX Compass

Looking to the week ahead, DK expects economic fundamentals to remain in the back seat:

With the VIX trading at a 4Y high, the S&P 500’s market cap down USD 1.14trn since July 19 and the market pricing in a significant risk of an inter-meeting Fed rate cut, interest in economic fundamentals will be limited this week.

Nevertheless, if today’s US retail sales were to disappoint, investors would immediately see this as a proof that unfolding events in the housing market are finally hitting consumer spending; more risk aversion could be the result.

However, market interest may focus even more on the NAHB index and housing starts (Wed/Thurs) with USD risks being once again asymmetrically biased to the downside as positive data surprises will most likely be ignored.

Wednesday’s US inflation data should neither be a much of a factor for the USD sentiment even if CPI was to surprise to the upside. In the past high inflation has never been an argument for the Fed to delay rate cuts if needed.

While this leaves some upside risks to EUR/USD, the discussion whether the ECB will hike rates in September is in full swing with the market revising expectations for a 25bp hike to 50% from 90% at the start of last week. Any signs that EU13 growth momentum is slowing would only support such revisions although we suspect that in the current environment this will not affect the EUR crosses.

UBS - Morning Advisor Europe

Looking for safe haven/risk reduction flows to benefit the USD:

… weakness in credit conditions amongst financial institutions globally cannot be ignored. Further news of large exposures to subprime derivates and other non-performing asset-backed securities are likely, keeping money-market rates high and central banks will be ready to step in to restore order. Although our FX Risk Index has remained in extreme risk-averse territory for some time now the lack of carry unwinding beyond key levels and the stagnation in safe-havens despite equity market volatility suggest investors are not willing to bail out on growth yet. The erosion in home bias, especially in the US, over the last few years has allowed unprecedented amounts of funds to be invested in overseas assets to capture growth in both emerging markets, and recovering economics such as Japan and the Eurozone. The reversal in benign conditions has been sudden which may explain significant investor scepticism and lack of liquidation and repatriation. However, we believe last week’s events set the stage for a brisk-paced decline in overseas holdings by US investors, especially now that portfolios will be under greater scrutiny when access to credit is being sought. In addition, if signs of damage in the real economy across G10 emerge at a time when certain developing economies are showing signs overheating, broader demand for high-quality US assets as a safe haven can only increase from current levels.

 

[ronumaar]

Un chart interessante...

Sembrerebbe che non c'è poi tantaaaa paura in giro, tutte queste cadute-rimbalzi rapidi di questi anni stanno dando il risultato voluto dalle mani forti... ociooooo!!!!!

Saludos,

Roberto[/graf]

 

[Fleursdumal]

Good aft'noon a tout les bondaroles

sempre più internazionali hola roberto

qui continuano le iniezioni tutto ciò è molto sconcertante piuttosto e anzichenò

 

[gipa69]

AP
Consumer Retail Spending Up Last Month
Monday August 13, 8:45 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Consumers Head to the Malls to Buy Clothes, Furniture and Electronics Products


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumers went shopping for clothes, furniture and electronics products last month, helping give a modest boost to retail sales despite continued weakness in the demand for new cars.

The Commerce Department reported Monday that retail sales edged up 0.3 percent in July after having plunged by 0.7 percent in June, the worst showing in 16 months.

Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of total economic activity, is being watched carefully now. The fear is that the recent turmoil in financial markets combined with slumping home prices will make Americans more hesitant to spend in the months ahead, raising the threat of a possible recession.

Wall Street suffered through some stomach-churning days last week because of worries about how credit problems that began in the market for subprime mortgages might spread to other types of loans. The Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world sought to calm investor fears by injecting billions of dollars into the banking system in an effort to keep short-term interest rates from rising.

The 0.3 percent rise in overall retail sales last month was slightly better than the 0.2 percent gain that had been expected. It was driven by increased demand for electronics gear and appliances, furniture and clothing. These increases helped to offset a 0.3 percent slump in sales at auto dealerships which followed an even bigger 2.9 percent drop in June.

Consumers have been the standout performers during the current economic expansion but there are indications that their spending spree could be slowing in the face of a spike in gasoline prices in the spring and a two-year slump in housing which has sent home prices down in many formerly red-hot markets, making homeowners feel less wealthy and less inclined to spend on other items.

For the April-June quarter, consumer spending rose at an annual rate of just 1.3 percent, the weakest showing since late 2005 when the country was being battered by the impact of the Gulf Coast hurricanes.

Even with the slowdown in consumer demand, the overall economy rebounded to an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the second quarter following growth at a barely discernible 0.6 percent in the first three months of this year.

Analysts are looking for economic growth to come it at a pace of around 2.5 percent in the second half of this year.

The 0.3 percent rise in retail sales would have been a slightly higher 0.4 percent increase if it had not been for a big 0.8 percent fall in sales at service stations, reflecting a drop in gasoline prices after a spike this spring.

The 0.3 percent rise in retail sales was a bit of a surprise given reports last week from the nation's big retail chains reported generally disappointing results in July.

 

[Fleursdumal]

The return of 1998. Maybe; maybe not

The urge, in a time of suspected crisis, to draw comparison with history is a strong one. No matter how bad things are, the idea that we’ve been there before and come out the other end, is a potent security blanket in times of strife.

In fact, everyone seems obsessed with 1998. And the trouble with comparisons is that, like statistics, the results very much depend how you cut them.

Nouriel Roubini made waves with his assertion last week that the current situation is “much worse” than the 1998 crisis surrounding LTCM. In a nutshell, he argues that in tipping over from illiquidity into the realms of insolvency this episode will have further-reaching, real effects than its 1990s semi-equivalent.

The European portfolio strategy team at Goldman Sachs instead have homed in on the place of the banks in the two crises.

In the summer of 1998, says Goldman, banks shed 40 per cent of their value after peaking in mid-July, while the overall market lost 20 per cent. This time round, as of Thursday, the banks are down 3 per cent, with the overall market up 2 per cent.

In general, equity market performance was quite strong in the months leading up to the Russian debt default and LTCM crisis, and the market was up 32% through the peak on July 15, 1998. Bank stocks performed even better, returning 37%.

In contrast, say Goldman, in this run-up bank performance and that of the market has been more moderate. Indeed, over the course of this year banks have experienced a “gradual drift of underperformance.”

Banks’ earnings multiples peaked at 19.5 times before the 1998 crisis. Currently trading bat 10.4 times NTM earnings , the banks are already lower than the trough reached in October 1998, point out Goldman, with accompanying graph.



From another corner of the Goldman empire comes more on the 1998/2007 parallels. In Monday’s daily note, GS economists Peter Berezin and Binit Patel, run through the similarities:

* markets roiled by the collapse of several financial companies
* a ripple effect from a “contained” problem
* uncertainty about how deep the problems go and which institutions have the most exposure
* credit markets racked with liquidity issues, causing equity markets to swoon
* a flight to quality
* a dramatic pick-up in volatility

But they also notes the differences. The backdrop for 2007 is that of a more robust nature in terms of the emerging economies markets. He writes:Their robust demand for exports has prevented a deeper slowdown in the US while their collective status as net creditors has helped finance the US current account deficit. Thus, emerging markets now appear to be part of the solution, and not part of the problem.

In contrast, the US economy was arguably on a stronger footing in 1998, with the housing market now looking in dire straights.

More fundamentally, the source of the problems in the US are largely emanating from the US, whereas in 1998 they were largely emanating from the EM sphere.

The lessons, say Goldman, are to avoid the kind of complacency with which market participants greeted the 1990s problems in Asia, but to remain optimistic for a longer-term recovery. The generally favourable backdrop, healthy corporate balance sheets, and strong profits give good reason for that.

In the meantime:

The constant dribble of news about who may be exposed to what is likely to keep the market on edge and volatility at elevated levels. Longer term, the issue will center on whether the repricing of risk that we are seeing will create a credit crunch that will squeeze cap ex spending and in the US, further undermine the struggling housing market.

 

[gipa69]

mmmhhhhhh...... settore energy molto forte.......

 

[Fleursdumal]

specie il natural gas
dopo tanta droga sfido io che gli indici son rinco

 

[ronumaar]

Hola bandoleros!!

Seguono le legnate nel bancario... mamma mia!

Alla fine tireranno davvero el dinero dagli elicotteri..

Anche le small cap tornano a sottoperformare

 

[Fernando'S]

copio e incollo .......è di un amico bravo
e sono d'accordo

......è il più grosso o uno dei più grossi operatori nel settore dei mutui subprime, e a giudicare da quello che sta facendo il suo Chairman (esercita le stock options e rivende immediatamente le azioni esercitate sul mercato) non deve avere molta fiducia in una soluzione breve del problema
ergo fino a che Countrywide non fa un bel botto in giù si shorta ad ogni rimbalzo degli indici.
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/25191.htm

 

[gipa69]

seduta pressochè piatta con i massimi di giornata raggiunti con le news sulle vendite retail e poi un lento declino fino alla chiusura.
Seduta molto correlata al cross Yen che ha manifestato ulteriore forza segno di ulteriori chiusure carry sebbene il supporto intorno ai 160 abbia tenuto.

Sul finale l'energy ha perso forza causa la discreta forza del dollaro (rimpatrio di capitali?)

Personalmente sul breve vedo ancora la possibilità che il recupero si sviluppi con maggiore forza sebbene ora entriamo nel periodo in cui pochi operatori dettano il ritmo del mercato e quindi i reverse violenti sono alquanto probabili.

L'incertezza dell'impatto della crisi finanziaria rimane per cui nuova debolezza è da tenere in conto dopo questo possibile rimbalzo.