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翠鸟科
gipa69 ha scritto:The bull market appears to have peaked and a major correction in global bonds and equities is looking more likely, say panelists
Anthony: What would be the likely magnitude of a correction in terms of percentage fall?
Mark: A severe market correction could range between 20 per cent and 70 per cent.
William: That is impossible to say. It depends on the reason for the reaction and will vary from market to market. Ten per cent is hardly a correction; 25 per cent does not seem unreasonable; 50 per cent seems far too great unless we have a true crash, especially as we had one like that in 2001-3.
Christopher: If credit spreads blow, a bear market would ensue which would mean 50 per cent-plus corrections. Otherwise, corrections are likely to be limited to 10-15 per cent.
Marc: Once the shares of Goldman Sachs are down by 20 per cent from their peak the phones at the Fed and at (US Treasury Secretary) Hank Paulson's office will ring asking them to cut interest rates to support the asset markets. So, who knows? But in real terms (in gold terms) US financial assets will be 'toast' for a long time.
Anthony: Thank you all, as ever, for a very stimulating discussion and we look forward to welcoming you back - before or after the 'crash'.
stica ....
e adesso che devo uscire dallo short, pare la beffa sopra al danno
