Comunque quelli che ironizzavano sul fatto che la strada scelta avrebbe creato dei problemi avevano proprio capito tutto...
For the
third time in as many months, Goldman Sachs has cut the probability that the US economy will enter a recession in the next year.
In a note titled "soft landing summer" released Monday, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said there was a 15% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, down from an earlier forecast of 20%.
"The continued positive inflation and labor market news has led us to cut our estimated 12-month US recession probability," Hatizus wrote.
Goldman Sachs notes its forecast is significantly below Bloomberg's consensus forecast for a 60% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. After
a summer of stronger than expected economic data, Hatzius and Goldman Sachs still see the US economy growing at a 2% annual pace on average through the end of 2024.
Goldman Sachs has lowered its recession forecast as strong than expected economic data has headlined 2023.
Underlying movements in the labor market could keep the economy growing, per Hatzius. Hatzius highlighted that while monthly jobs reports have shown signs of a cooling labor market, the US economy is still adding jobs and wages are increasing, both positives for economic growth projections. The recent August jobs report showed the
US economy added 187,000 jobs while average hourly earnings rose 4.3% and the unemployment rate increased to 3.8%, its highest level in 18 months.
Hatzius noted that the 0.3 percentage point uptick in unemployment was unconcerning, as it largely reflected more
workers coming back to the labor force. This, overtime, could support consumer spending, thus helping the US skirt a recession.
Male ma non malissimo.