COMMODITIES ... solo per pochi pazzi !!!

[solospread]

Scusa una domanda Ditro
piu una scadenza è lunga maggiore è la backwardation o dipende oltre che da questo anche dal grado di aspettativa sui prezzi futuri?
Se un future quota a contango significa che le aspettative future sono per un calo del sottostante?
Grazie per la risposta

 

[aldiladellaldiqua]

up

 

[ditropan]

Scusa una domanda Ditro
piu una scadenza è lunga maggiore è la backwardation o dipende oltre che da questo anche dal grado di aspettativa sui prezzi futuri?
Se un future quota a contango significa che le aspettative future sono per un calo del sottostante?
Grazie per la risposta

Dipende da :

- caratteristica del future (alcuni come rame e petrolio sono tipicamente in backwardation, altri come i grains hanno caratteristica di essere tipicamente in contango)
- trend in atto (se mi parte un toro forte sulla soia per esempio tu vedi come questa materia che è tipicamente in contango si trasforma in backwardation, viceversa su di un petrolio che materia back. adesso se vai a vedee che siamo in contango fino alla scadenza di settembre 2005 !!! )
- aspettative future (... riprendo il caso del perolio, vuol dire che ora le aspettative sono per una discesa futura).




.... se un future che è tipicamente in contango si trasforma in back. vuol dire che cè un toro forte come un palazzo !!!

... se su di un future che è tipicamente in back. aumenta il suo back sempre di più allora signi fica che siamo in toro .

... se il future back. diventa contango significa che le aspettative future sono per un ribasso.

.. se un future contango aumenta ancora il suo contango le aspettative future sono per una scarsità dello stesso.

 

[solospread]

Scusa una domanda Ditro
piu una scadenza è lunga maggiore è la backwardation o dipende oltre che da questo anche dal grado di aspettativa sui prezzi futuri?
Se un future quota a contango significa che le aspettative future sono per un calo del sottostante?
Grazie per la risposta

Dipende da :

- caratteristica del future (alcuni come rame e petrolio sono tipicamente in backwardation, altri come i grains hanno caratteristica di essere tipicamente in contango)
- trend in atto (se mi parte un toro forte sulla soia per esempio tu vedi come questa materia che è tipicamente in contango si trasforma in backwardation, viceversa su di un petrolio che materia back. adesso se
vai a vedee che siamo in contango fino alla scadenza di settembre
2005 !!! )
- aspettative future (... riprendo il caso del perolio, vuol dire che ora le aspettative sono per una discesa futura).




.... se un future che è tipicamente in contango si trasforma in back. vuol dire che cè un toro forte come un palazzo !!!

... se su di un future che è tipicamente in back. aumenta il suo back sempre di più allora signi fica che siamo in toro .

... se il future back. diventa contango significa che le aspettative future sono per un ribasso.

.. se un future contango aumenta ancora il suo contango le aspettative future sono per una scarsità dello stesso.

Ti ringrazio per la risposta che è stata molto esaudiente e che conferma che per guadagnare anche nello SPREAD bisogna indovinare dove andranno a parare i prezzi. Pensavo erroneamente che i future sulle materie prime funzionassero un po come i covered con il tempo di decadenza che si mangia il prezzo. Se fosse stato cosi i future con scdenza piu lunga avrebbero avuto una backwardation piu alta e bastava mettersi lunghi su scadenza lunga e corti su scadenza corta sullo stessso sottostante e si guadagnava in tutte le salse. Troppo bello per essere vero
Questo funziona sui future azionari però lo spread è troppo piccolo per poter guadagnare.
Ciao e grazie ancora

 

[Fleursdumal]

Sulla soia i fondi si stanno coprendo anche perchè si sta aggiungendo ai prezzi un risk premium : il tempo nel sud del Brasile è caldo e secco e sta facendo sorgere qualche preoccupazione sull'impatto che avrà sul raccolto.

Dovremmo chiedere a Mattia costanti aggiornamenti sulle variazioni climatiche in quelle regioni, specie cos'è avvenuto in questo ponte di tre giorni , e come va l'epidemia che ha colpito aranceti e coltivazioni soia

 

[ditropan]

chiuso tutto il grano luglio ... chiusa pure questa scala per ora.


incrementato short soia, tengo in portafoglio il long sul corn ... e domani vediamo se mi becco un'altra sventola con il rapporto dell'USDA!!!

 

[ditropan]

no, non li trasformano in ATM, sono ineseguiti e basta, mentre gli ATM li accetta, sono vergognosi!

... alla fine ho fatto un'ordine telefonico e glie l'ho pure detto che cazzarola è passato tutto venerdì ed il we e che questo problema doveva essere già risolto.


... chiusi gli ultimi 3 long sul grano luglio a 347 ... mi sono preso un'altro shortino sulla soia a 621.

... e domani vediamo che combinano stì pazzi dopo il rapporto USDA.

Io dalle info sul tempo in brasile non vedo tutto stò grande casino che stanno facendo sul pit della soia al CBOT.

... e comunque dagli ultimi dati che ho in possesso quest'anno in brasile raccolto record di 61.408.900 di tonellate.


totale anno 2004/2005 -> 62.976.200 tonellate
consumo interno -> 35.000.000 ton.
export -> 22.100.000 ton.

eccedenza storica di -> 5.876.200 ton.


... fate vobis su che gambe si regge questo rally ...

 

[ditropan]

Giorno .... aggiornamento sulle granaglie ....


CBOT Mkt News: Psychology

Posted By: Roger Wright <Send E-Mail>
Date: Friday, March 11, 2005 at 8:28 a.m.

Overnight, wheat is mixed, corn and beans are slightly higher.

Spot ethanol prices continue lower with prices down nearly 18 cents a gallon since last half of February. With everything oil related going higher since mid-February, the lower ethanol is an indirect plus for corn demand.

F C Stone reported last night:

"The soybean trade would generally agree that last year Brazilian yields were cut approximately 8.3% due to rust. This would be equal to a 3.3 bu/acre yield decline in the U.S. In our new crop matrix, a 37 yield with USDA's aggressive/optimistic new crop demand projection, would find US stocks declining sharply to 155 million bushels resulting a relatively tight carryout to use ratio of 5.3% which historically could support November futures near 7.00. Apparently this type of possible production threat continues to entice additional pre-summer speculative fund buying with funds flush with new investable funds."

And:

"A wire story quoting Rio Grande do Sul State Ag Department suggesting that RGDS state bean production this year may be no larger than 3.3 million mt. This would be a sharp drop from last year's already drought reduced 5.4 million mt production level. This would imply a statewide yield of no more than 12 bu/acre. This small crop might suggest a total Brazilian crop no larger than 54 to 55 million mt versus USDA's estimate today at 59 million mt. USDA did however estimate Brazil production at a relatively benign 59 million mt Thursday morning, down 4 million mt from the February estimate. Last year USDA dropped March Brazil crop only 1.5 million mt, but then went on to drop Brazil an additional 7 million mt by May."

The USDA reduced Brazil's corn crop 2 million mt, but increased Argentina's and China's corn crop by 2 million mt each along with the South African corn production increase of 1.3 million mt. With world demand only up 7 million bushels, the world corn carryout rose 187 million bushels on yesterday's S&D.

The bean and wheat markets are not and have not been trading the current fundamentals. The technical trend is up and the funds are controlling the markets. The key to success in pricing your futures trades and farm production has to be based upon what the funds are going to do; note: the funds are buying.

The CBOT market psychology is bullish. When the psychology is bullish, bearish news is neutral, neutral news is positive, and bullish news creates a stupid buying euphoria. When bearish news is released, one must looks at and ask the question, "How will the market make this news bullish?"

Yesterday morning was classic example: bearish corn news, bearish wheat news, and the bean news was not nearly as bullish as expected (no Chinese bean import increase, the cut in Brazil's bean production was 1 million mt less than expected, the US crush was reduced 5 million bushels, no cut in Argentina bean production), yet old bans made new highs for move after opening lower and that pulled corn and wheat smartly higher with new wheat making new highs for the move.

Why did beans rally after a lower opening? As I said yesterday morning, the market put a positive spin on the news, namely, on future S&D's, the USDA will reduce the Brazilian bean crop and increase Chinese bean imports.

Ukraine reportedly will have to replant 10% of its winter wheat to spring wheat or other crops.











CBOT Market Info

Posted By: Roger Wright <Send E-Mail>
Date: Monday, March 14, 2005 at 8:37 a.m.

Corn, wheat and beans were slightly lower in the overnight trade, which profit taking is to be fully expected given the break away rally on Friday.

The higher the prices go, the more volatile they will become. There will be days when the beans will trade 15 cents lower and close higher. There will be days when they open higher and close 20 cents lower. Any thing can happen.

BUT: the spec funds will be buyers on the breaks and do not forget it... the only question is how far will any given break go before the funds start buying? That will the case today... I am not necessarily predicting a higher close, in fact, we could close the beans down 20 cents, corn down 5 and wheat down 10 today and then expect the specs to buy tomorrow after a lower opening. But the specs will be buying all breaks.

The stock market is showing the effects of higher crude oil prices and selling momentum is growing there. Higher energy prices mean inflation. Inflation means higher commodity prices (eventually). The CRB (index of common commodity prices) was near a 20 year high a few weeks ago...

The fundamentals will continue to argue the effects of weather on beans crops in South America and ascertain the rust damage on final yields, but the spin will be those crops will be getting smaller and not bigger.

 

[ditropan]

giorno ....


CBOT Mkt Info: Focus on Corn

Posted By: Roger Wright <Send E-Mail>
Date: Tuesday, March 29, 2005 at 9:07 a.m.

December 2005 corn contract low was made January 18th at $2.26 3/4 and matched on February 9th. The recent rally carried December corn to $2.49 1/2 on March 15th. The last three days have seen December corn make lows of $2.32 1/2, $2.32 3/4, and $2.32 1/2. Yesterday's close was $2.34 3/4, up one cent.

The market expects increased corn acres over a year ago on Thursday morning's planting intentions. Corn exports are slow and continue to lag behind projections most weeks. South Korea's Food and Drug Administration reported they are investigating imports of US corn to determine if imports are contaminated by unapproved GMO material. South Korea has decided to require a certificate for future imports of food grade corn from the US that the cargo does not contain Bt10.

USDA's stated animal numbers are up less than 1% over a year ago, but their current annual corn feed use estimate is up 4.4% from last year.

There are many negatives in the corn market. However, I am bullish corn.

Ethanol corn usage continues to expand faster than the USDA projects. I am certain there are more livestock numbers than the USDA has stated and the profit in all livestock sectors is very strong, encouraging expansion. Slowly but surely, China is selling less corn every year. The trend yield for 2005 of 145.6 for the 2005 crop and this yield level has only been attainted one time in history (last year). This is an El Nino year and the biggest threat to the corn crop in an El Nino year is getting the crop planted in a timely manner. It has been wet in the Corn Belt this winter, typical El Nino. South American corn and bean crops continue to shrink.

The market wants to be bullish. Money is coming into the futures markets from bonds and stocks. Corn, proportionately, is by far the cheapest grain or oil seed commodity. The dollar has been in an uptrend for a month. As soon as the market believes the uptrend will continue, buying US grains will be strong to get US products bought before the dollar gets stronger (1979 the strongest rate increase for the dollar and our record export corn year at 2433 million bushels).

December 2005 corn futures usually trade lower in February. This year, it rallied 13 1/4 cents.

The last year December corn was rallied in February was last year when December corn made a contract high of $3.41 in April. Prior to 2004 the most recent February rallies in December corn were in 1994, 1995, 1996 and 1997. The contract highs in those years went on the be $2.77, $3.45, $3.89, and $2.98 respectively. In 1990, a February rally in December corn was followed by a contract high of $2.96 in July. In 1988, a February rally was followed by a rally to $3.83 in June.

The wild card is Mount St. Helen's volcano, which will possibly erupt in the near future. It's eruption in May 1980 was the cause of the Corn Belt drought west of Ohio in 1980.

With the market expecting slow corn usage and increased acreage Thursday morning, the corn futures will probably struggle today and tomorrow. I expect that the best time to get long corn will be long the December contract either just before Thursday or just after Thursday reports. If I was going to do it, I would place an order to buy December corn at $2.32 1/2 to $2.33 with a sell stop at $2.24 1/2, below the contract low of $2.26 and 1/2.

The average trade guess for corn acreage to be 82.3 million, up 1.45 million acres from 2004. More and more traders are contemplating the possibility of more bean and less corn acres than earlier expected. The trade has a strong historical tendency to overestimate corn acreage in the March report. Average trade guess for corn stocks in Thursday's report at 6721. This implies the trade looking for second quarter corn feed use up about 4.5% from a year ago.

Weekly corn export inspections yesterday were 29.6 million bushels compared to 33.1 last year. Cumulative US corn export inspections down 10% from a year ago with USDA forecasting an annual
decline of 3%. Trade expects further downward export revisions in USDA export forecast in upcoming supply demand reports.

China reportedly exported only 120,000 tons of corn in February versus 440,000 tons last year. Domestic China corn prices reported higher.

Brazil's total corn imports could be 5 million mt in 2005 after their recent drought. USDA only estimating 500,000 tons of imports currently.

The average trade guess for soybean acreage is to be down 1.9 million from last year at 73.6 million acres. Average trade guess for March bean stocks at 1425. Weekly bean export inspections were 16.8 million compared to 12.7 million a year ago.

Weekly US export inspections were 20.5 million compared to 23.6 a year ago. Cumulative US export inspections down 7% from year ago with USDA forecasting annual exports down 10%.

Wire services report numerous problems plaguing Russian agriculture. Almost 50% of Russian farms reported insolvent. A lack of rapid movement to private land ownership is slowing agricultural investment. One-third of farm production lost before it can reach the buyer after harvest. Russian agriculture is lacking adequate investment to expand animal numbers and grain production. Meanwhile, partial access to EU subsidies will continue to balloon Eastern European production while Russian production lags behind, but could eventually expand to help satisfy a growing world wheat market.

Overnight, corn is mixed, wheat is fractionally lower and beans are mixed to mostly lower.

 

[Fleursdumal]

ottima sta dritta sul vulcano di monte Sant'Elena