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INO Evening Markets
INO.com - Wednesday at 4:34 PM
The STOCK INDEXES
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The NASDAQ Composite index closed higher on Wednesday with volume at its highest level since June. Upbeat economic and corporate reports underpinned today's rally as the NASDAQ Composite index extending Tuesday's breakout above weekly resistance crossing at 1827.90. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. If this summer's rally continues, weekly resistance crossing at 1946.23 is the next likely upside target later this summer. Momentum indicators are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The NASDAQ Composite Index closed up 11.42 points at 1852.90.
The September S&P 500 index closed higher on Wednesday as it extended yesterday's breakout above the upper boundary of this summer's trading range crossing at 1015.60. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. If this week's rally continues, weekly resistance crossing at 1108 is the next target. Momentum indicators are overbought but remain bullish hinting that additional gains are possible. The September S&P 500 Index closed up 5.00 points at 1027.10.
The Dow closed higher on Thursday extending yesterday's breakout above August's high at 9499. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. Momentum indicators turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's rally was supported by friendly economic and corporate reports, as the door is open for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 10,011 later this year. The Dow closed up 45 points at 9568.
INTEREST RATES
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September bonds posted an inside day with a slightly lower close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. However; stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that the correction in time might be coming to an end. Closes below last week's low at 105-14 would open the door for a test of August's low at 103-27 later this month. From a broader perspective, September bonds need to close above August's high at 109-05 or below 103-27 to confirm a breakout of last month's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.
The CRB INDEX
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The CRB index closed higher on Wednesday due to short covering, which left yesterday's huge key reversal down unconfirmed. Despite today's rebound the CRB index remains below May's high crossing at 242.16. Today's rebound was due to strength in grains, cattle, precious metals, fiber and energies. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and have turned bearish signaling that a top is in or is near. Closes below last week's low crossing at 240.14 would confirm that a top has been posted.
ENERGY MARKETS
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The energy markets closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as they consolidated some of Tuesday's huge losses following the Labor Day weekend.
October crude oil closed slightly higher due to short covering on Wednesday but remains below August's low crossing at 30.10. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. If October extends Tuesday's breakout below August's low at 30.10, a test of the late-July low crossing at 29.18 is possible later this week. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during the first half of September.
October heating oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of yesterday's loss but remains below August's low crossing at 79.00. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Today's low spiked below July's low crossing at 76.70. Closes below this support level could lead to additional weakness and a possible test of June's low at 74.40 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible during the first half of September.
October unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday due to spillover selling following Tuesday's sharp decline and low-range close, which led to a breakout below August's low at 87.15. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday as the door is open for a possible test of the late-July low crossing at 81.20 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
October Henry Hub natural closed slightly higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates above the late-July low crossing at 4.62. Closes below 4.62 would confirm a downside breakout of the late-summer trading range while opening the door for a test of January's gap crossing at 4.44 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's upper-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday.
CURRENCIES
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The September Dollar closed lower on Wednesday and below the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 98.91. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening on Thursday. Closes above last week's high crossing at 99.57 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of the 75% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 100.45. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.65 would confirm that a short-term top has likely been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top is in or is near.
The September Euro closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday leaving yesterday's key reversal down unconfirmed. Despite today's rebound, September remains below the 62% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 109.80. Closes below last week's low at 107.86 would renew this summer's decline while opening the door for a possible test of April's low crossing at 105.06 later this month. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.849 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at .7091. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. Closes below last week's low at .7010 would renew August's decline and could lead to a test of weekly support crossing at .6941. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .7203 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low is in or is near.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday and is testing trading range resistance crossing at .7254. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. Closes above .7254 or below .7027 are needed to confirm a breakout of the late-summer trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday extending yesterday's breakout above July's high crossing at .8590. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. Closes above the late-May high crossing at .8640 could lead to a test of the contract high crossing at .8725 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are still possible. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .8540 and then last week's low at .8477 would confirm that a top has likely been posted.
PRECIOUS METALS
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December gold closed slightly higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates below May's high crossing at 377. If this summer's rally continues, weekly resistance crossing at 391 is December's next upside target later this summer. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 370.20 and then broken resistance marked by July's high at 369.70 would signal that a double top has likely been posted.
December silver posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Tuesday's loss. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. However, closes below support marked by the 40-day moving average crossing at 4.987 would greatly increase the odds that a double top with July's high was posted with last week's high. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
December copper closed sharply higher on Wednesday breaking out above July's high crossing at 82.60 and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. Multiple closes above July's high would confirm today's breakout thereby opening the door for a test of weekly resistance crossing at 85.60 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
GRAINS
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December corn closed above last week's high crossing at 2.43 on Wednesday thereby renewing the late-summer rally. Yesterday's crop conditions report showed a decline of 4% in the good to excellent, which now stands at 46%. Additional support came from extended weather forecast calling for continued dryness across much of the western Corn Belt into next week. F.C. Stone released its latest crop estimate of 9.867 billion bushels and R.J. O'Brien released its corn crop estimate of 9.759 billion bushels. Both estimates are well below the USDA's August estimate of 10.064 billion bushels. Today's rally also led to a close above fib resistance crossing at 2.41 3/4 as the door is open for a test of June's high crossing at 2.47 1/2 and possibly the contract high at 2.53 later this month. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. Closes below 2.30 1/2 would greatly increase the odds that a pre-harvest top has been posted.
December wheat closed lower on Wednesday despite a fresh export deal with Egypt and strength in corn and soybeans. However, talk of a record crop out of Australia continues to hang over the market and is limiting near-term upside potential in the market. Closes above last week's high crossing at 3.82 are needed to trigger additional short covering gains that could lead to a test of broken trendline support crossing near 3.95 later this month. Closes below support marked by the 38% retracement level of this summer's rally crossing at 3.66 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early-September that could lead to a test of the 50% retracement level crossing at 3.55 3/4 later this year. Stochastics remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
December Kansas City Wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.75. Closes below the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 3.68 1/4 would resume the decline off August's high and could lead to a test of the 50% retracement level of this summer's rally crossing near 3.57 1/2 later this summer. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
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November soybeans closed higher on Wednesday due to short covering and filled yesterday's gap at 5.83 1/2 before a late-day sell off tempered some of today's gains. Tuesday's decline in the crop conditions report along with extended weather forecast calling for the western part of the soybean belt to remain dry into next week provided much of today's support. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Closes below yesterday's low at 5369 1/2 would open the door for a test of the 38% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 5.62 3/4 then gap support at 5.50 later this month. Closes above June's high at 5.88 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
December soybean meal closed higher due to short covering and above broken resistance crossing at 179.50 but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 182.40. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday as the door remains open for sideways to lower prices into the first half of September and could lead to a test of Aug.'s gap at 171.90 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
December soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday but remains below the 50% retracement level of this summer's decline crossing at 20.88. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. If this month's rally continues, a test of the 62% retracement crossing at 21.35 is possible later this summer. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 20.24 would greatly increase the odds that this month's correction has come to an end.
LIVESTOCK
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October hogs closed above the 50% retracement level of this summer's decline crossing at 55.18 on Wednesday opening the door for a test of the 62% retracement level crossing at 56.22 possibly on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. Close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.68 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
February bellies closed lower on Wednesday however, the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought however, the daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 82.42 would greatly increase the odds that a short-term top has been posted.
October cattle closed limit up on Wednesday breaking out above monthly resistance crossing at 83.60. The limit up close sets the stage for a firmer opening on Thursday as October cattle are trading in new uncharted territory for that contract. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain bullish along with the daily ADX signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.84 could trigger a round of profit taking.
October Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above the previous all-time high posted in 1979 at 95.15. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. Closes below last week's low crossing at 91.70 would confirm that a top has been posted. Stochastics and RSI are diverging while the daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
FOOD & FIBER
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December coffee posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidates below the 40-day moving average crossing at 64.16. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 40-day moving average are needed to confirm that December has posted a bottom.
December cocoa closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1676 signaling that a short-term top has likely been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday although I would not rule out a corrective bounce tomorrow. Closes above the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1746 would renew this summer's rally and could lead to a test of the 50% retracement level at 1850 later this year. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning bearish hinting that a top might be in or is near.
October sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extended last week's breakout below the 75% retracement level crossing at 634. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. If this month's decline continues, a test of June's low at 602 is possible later this summer. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a low might be near. Closes above last week's high at 674 would temper the bearish outlook in the market.
December cotton posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it extended last Friday's breakout above the 40-day moving average crossing at 58.94. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Thursday. If the rally continues, fib resistance crossing at 60.24 is a possible target later this summer. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term.
