Macroeconomia Crisi finanziaria e sviluppi

piccolo OT
beh ...la caduta delle lettere spedite/consegnate è anche attribuibile alla diffusione delle email (Se devi scrivere ad un amico gli mandi una mail, se vuoi scrivere una lettera d'amore la consegni di persona o dai 5 euro in mano a qualcuno e sei sicuro che Le arriva ;) ) e della posta certificata....
 
Qualche indicatore anticipatore per una prossima schiarita

( N.B che probabilmente i mercati finanziari hanno anticipato e forse ampiamente prezzato ) :

Secondo il prestigioso Istituto di ricerca macroeconomica ECRI,

la ripresa economica degli U.S.A è,

in base ;)al Weekly Leading Index prossima a manifestarsi entro pochi mesi.

WLI Growth at 25-Week High

Reuters
April 17, 2009
(Reuters) -

NEW YORK, A weekly measure of U.S. future economic growth slipped, while its annualized growth rate climbed to levels last seen in October 2008, indicating ;)that economic recovery is probable in the coming months, a research group said Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 107.2 for the week ending April 10 from 107.4, which was revised lower from 107.9.

But the index's annualized growth rate -- which has seen nearly a six-month upswing -- rose to negative 19.7 percent from the prior week's rate of negative 20.9 percent, revised lower from negative 20.6 percent.

It was the highest yearly growth reading since the week of Oct. 17, 2008, when the rate plunged to a 33-year low of minus 17.1 percent, according to ECRI data.

:up:"With the upturn in Weekly Leading Index growth continuing for over five months now, growth in U.S. economic activity will begin to improve in short order," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The weekly index level fell because of higher interest rates and weaker housing activity and was partly offset by higher commodity prices, Achuthan said.
 
di Crack sistemici ... credo non ve ne sia più spazio.....

mi ricorda i bei tempi del pre-Lehman .... non vedo perché non possa succedere

stress test ... tanto per stressarsi un altro pochino ... http://turnerradionetwork.blogspot.com/2009/04/leaked-bank-stress-test-reults.html

SUNDAY, APRIL 19, 2009
LEAKED! Bank Stress Test Reults !
The Turner Radio Network has obtained "stress test" results for the top 19 Banks in the USA.

The stress tests were conducted to determine how well, if at all, the top 19 banks in the USA could withstand further or future economic hardship.

When the tests were completed, regulators within the Treasury and inside the Federal Reserve began bickering with each other as to whether or not the test results should be made public. That bickering continues to this very day as evidenced by this "main stream media" report.

The Turner Radio Network has obtained the stress test results. They are very bad. The most salient points from the stress tests appear below.

1) Of the top nineteen (19) banks in the nation, sixteen (16) are already technically insolvent.

2) Of the 16 banks that are already technically insolvent, not even one can withstand any disruption of cash flow at all or any further deterioration in non-paying loans.

3) If any two of the 16 insolvent banks go under, they will totally wipe out all remaining FDIC insurance funding.

4) Of the top 19 banks in the nation, the top five (5) largest banks are under capitalized so dangerously, there is serious doubt about their ability to continue as ongoing businesses.

5) Five large U.S. banks have credit exposure related to their derivatives trading that exceeds their capital, with four in particular - JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, HSBC Bank America and Citibank - taking especially large risks.

6) Bank of America`s total credit exposure to derivatives was 179 percent of its risk-based capital; Citibank`s was 278 percent; JPMorgan Chase`s, 382 percent; and HSBC America`s, 550 percent. It gets even worse: Goldman Sachs began reporting as a commercial bank, revealing an alarming total credit exposure of 1,056 percent, or more than ten times its capital!

7) Not only are there serious questions about whether or not JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs,Citibank, Wells Fargo, Sun Trust Bank, HSBC Bank USA, can continue in business, more than 1,800 regional and smaller institutions are at risk of failure despite government bailouts!

The debt crisis is much greater than the government has reported. The FDIC`s "Problem List" of troubled banks includes 252 institutions with assets of $159 billion. 1,816 banks and thrifts are at risk of failure, with total assets of $4.67 trillion, compared to 1,568 institutions, with $2.32 trillion in total assets in prior quarter.

Put bluntly, the entire US Banking System is in complete and total collapse.

More details as they become available. . . . . .


UPDATE 0147 HRS EDT Monday, April 20, 2009 --

For those who may be skeptical about the veracity of the stress test report above, be reminded that only last Sunday, April 12, this radio network obtained and published a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Memo outlining their concerns that returning US military vets posed a domestic security threat as "right wing extremists." That memo, available here, is marked "FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY" and contained strict warnings that it was not to be released to the public or to the media. We obtained it and published it days before other media outlets.

That DHS report appeared on this blog at least two full days before the story was picked up by The Washington Times, and virtually every other US media outlet.

Details of certain aspects of the stress test reported above have now been CONFIRMED through REUTERS News service when they disclosed the risk-capital percentages publicly on April 6, 2009 at this link

Further, todays Wall Street Journal (April 20, 2009) is confirming at this link that lending by the largest banks has DECREASED 23% since the government began the T.A.R.P. program, causing many in Congress to ask where the money has actually been going. Apparently, it has been going into propping-up the failing banks instead of out in loans to the public.

Additional details and proofs are forthcoming. . . . . continue to check back on this developing story.
 
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( N.B che probabilmente i mercati finanziari hanno anticipato e forse ampiamente prezzato ) :
...

forse volevi dire che Obama ha anticipato ... dubito ci sia una corsa agli acquisti da parte di altri :) ... almeno i cinesi questa volta non sono di sicuro
 
vedi Metatarso ... il gioco è bello quando dura poco ... altrimenti si finisce a giocare da soli :D:D
 
Bè una ventata di ottimismo primaverile mi sembra che ci sia in giro, tremonti, l'ocse, perfino la marcegaglia...
sono rimasti negativi roubini, i francesi di leap, mazzalai e stockuccio.
Io pure anche se sono ignorante in materia, ma mi sembra che la crisi del millennio si sia sgonfiata troppo in fretta oppure magari si sta solo prendendo una pausa? vedremo nei prox mesi
 
Chiaritemi una cosa perchè io non ci capisco molto.
Se dovessero avere ragione tutte le cassandre (non è una critica ,ma solo una constatazione)che postano in questo thread le valute dovrebbero essere disintegrate dall'inflazione e l'oro partire a razzo verso le vette.
La view corrente di molti,invece sembra una situazione tecnica molto critica per l'oro, con forte indirizzo al ribasso.
Non sarà che la marea di carta buttata sul mercato verrà assorbita dalla perdita di valore delle varie classi di asset (mi spiace ma non so dirlo meglio di così).

Io un paio di anni fà avevo preso un po' di oro e ne sono stato contento; ora a naso,mi sembra una situazione da inflazione iper-galoppante e quasi ,quasi ne prenderei ancora.

Qualcuno ha una visione d'insieme del quadro che possa chiarirmi le idee e dirmi se mi sbaglio di grosso o meno?
In una crisi del genere l'oro può essere un argine di difesa o è solo un immobilizzo inutile?
thanks to everybody.
 

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