Macroeconomia Crisi finanziaria e sviluppi (1 Viewer)

yellow

Forumer attivo
qui c'è un'articolo interessante in merito....anche negli usa si chiedono se Bernanke ci è o ci fa....
Al momento giusto combatterà l'inflazione? Nel mentre tiene i tassi a zero e sparge banconote come i Suoi datori di lavoro chiedono;)

Ah saperlo:)

Comunque Lui ha un passato recente non molto rassicurante sul tema,
visto che era considerato un pupillo di A.Greenspan,
ed esordì :eek:parlando di lanciare dollari con l'elicottero.

PS. Ad onor del vero si è ritrovato in una situazione
in cui non aveva altra scelta.

Vedremo con l'evolversi della situazione
( che rimane caotica, nella quale potremmo andare :eek:dalla Deflazione :eek:all'Iperinflazione,
quest'ultima parrebbe più probabile visto l'innesco,
ma siamo ancora nel campo delle ;) illazioni )
 

TheLondoner

Forumer storico
Ah saperlo:)

Comunque Lui ha un passato recente non molto rassicurante sul tema,
visto che era considerato un pupillo di A.Greenspan,
ed esordì :eek:parlando di lanciare dollari con l'elicottero.

PS. Ad onor del vero si è ritrovato in una situazione
in cui non aveva altra scelta.

Vedremo con l'evolversi della situazione
( che rimane caotica, nella quale potremmo andare :eek:dalla Deflazione :eek:all'Iperinflazione,
quest'ultima parrebbe più probabile visto l'innesco,
ma siamo ancora nel campo delle ;) illazioni )

in effetti la coppia Obama + Bernanke non è molto rassicurante...la deflazione credo sia solo uno spauracchio per tenere quasi a zero i tassi di rifinanziamento del sistema...
In pratica le banche ora accumulano cash che poi reimmetteranno nel sistema creditizio quando i tassi saranno a bel altri livelli.
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Lo stato Russo garantisce fino al 50% dei loans bancari contratti da aziende ritenute strategiche (ma inefficienti nella gestione del capitale).

Se la crisi finisse per rivelarsi di lunga durata, occorrerà verificare che per questa via non si deteriori piuttosto il merito di credito dell'emittente sovrano.

Fitch: State Guarantees May Help Russian Corporates in Debt Refinancing but Carry Risks
21 Jul 2009 1:00 AM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-Moscow/London-21 July 2009: Fitch Ratings says state guarantees to strategically important Russian companies to cover up to 50% of the loan amount could aid debt restructuring efforts and be a factor in supporting their creditworthiness in the short-to-medium term. However, it remains to be seen if the new rules of issuing state guarantees would appeal to the broad banking community.

In Fitch's view, state guarantees could have a positive impact on the beneficiary's Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and/or the ratings of issuer's debt instruments. In assessing such effects Fitch will consider several factors such as the individual credit profile of the issuer, strength of the linkage between the issuer and Russian state, terms and conditions of guarantees, guarantee validity and enforceability, and the proportion of debt covered by guarantees.

"Fitch believes that the government's main motivations for offering state support to enterprises, including that of providing state guarantees, is to protect the country's industrial base and labour-intensive industries, in particular," says Sergei Grishunin, Director in Fitch's Corporates team.

The government intends for companies receiving state guarantees to service their debt out of their own resources, thereby avoiding the need for the Russian state to use its cash to finance the corporate sector.

Although explicit state support may help companies gain access to cheaper and longer-term financing in the current difficult financial markets, Fitch questions the long-term impact this may have on the health of some companies and the wider economy.

"Although the provision of state guarantees to socially important but operationally ineffective companies may support employment and the economy in the short-term, ultimately it will increase government expenditure," adds Grishunin.

Given that state guarantees have not been accepted by domestic banks, Fitch says it remains to be seen if the amended state guarantee mechanism will be recognised by lenders, particularly non-government controlled banks.

As only a portion (up to 50%) of the loan can be covered by guarantees, banks will continue to be exposed to significant credit risks. In addition, creditors may be deterred by potential legal and operating challenges as the new mechanism has never been tested in practice.

Russian government officials recently said that the government has already received requests for state guarantees totalling RUB215bn. Fitch expects industries such as car manufacturing, machinery and equipment producers, chemical, transportation and infrastructure to be the majority of state aid recipients, while oil and gas or metals and mining companies are less likely to apply for state guarantee.

On 7 July 2009 the Russian government approved RUB20bn (USD634m) of state guarantees to be provided to the Russian car maker, OAO GAZ Group (GAZ). The guarantees, which are expected to be finalized by 1 August 2009, will back GAZ's unsecured loans and help the company service its RUB44.8bn (USD1.4bn) credit portfolio. Other Russian companies in line for state aid are chemical producer Kazanorgsintez for a total amount of RUB15bn, truck maker KAMAZ for RUB4.6bn, auto group Sollers forRUB5bn, and Vnukovo airport in Moscow for RUB2bn.



The amount of state guarantees for each loan may vary between RUB150m and RUB10bn per company. The term of the loans qualifying for state guarantees may range between six months and five years. The total amount of state guarantees in 2009 is limited to RUB300bn.



Unlike "state comfort letters" which represents an intention, but not obligation, of the state to repay the debt of an insolvent company, state guarantee is an obligation of the state to repay the overdue debt of the issuer if the conditions of state guarantee are being met.



Such repayment should be made within 30 days of presenting the guarantee to the state
 

stockuccio

Guest
nel silenzio generale dei media, un report dettagliato sulla pesantissima situazione della regione locomotiva del Paese http://milanointernazionale.it/2009/07/25/diario-della-crisi-in-lombardia-25-luglio/

anche zerohedge si da all'analisi http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/The End Of The End Of The Recession_0.pdf

nell'ultimo post di Mazzalai monta l'onda dello scandalo dell'high frequency trading .... con tutti gli annessi e connessi come il russo rubacodici, o i 21 miliardi di utili generati per i pochi eletti secondo la Tabb Group ... certo che Nouriel che elogia Bernacca è dura da digerire, le pressioni che subisce devono essere pesantine :)
in ogni caso pare che 'settembre verrà presentato un disegno di legge per vietare il HFT'
 

stockuccio

Guest
secondo il FT il FMI solo per le carte di credito si aspetta circa 120 miliardi di euro di perdite in Europa e circa 260 miliardi di dollari di perdite in USA




Europe braced for rising credit card defaults

By Jane Croft and Megan Murphy in London and Francesco Guerrera in New York
Published: July 26 2009 21:09 | Last updated: July 26 2009 21:09



Lenders in Europe bracing themselves for a rising wave of consumer debt defaults as the credit card crisis that has caused billions of dollars in losses among US banks spreads across the Atlantic.
The International Monetary Fund estimates that of US consumer debt totalling $1,914bn, about 14 per cent will turn sour.
It expects that 7 per cent of the $2,467bn of consumer debt in Europe will be lost, with much of that falling in the UK, the continent’s biggest nation of credit card borrowers.
National Debtline of the UK said that the number of calls it had received from UK consumers worried about loans, credit cards and mortgage arrears had reached 41,000 in May – double the 20,000 calls it had received in May 2008. It added that the number of calls showed no sign of abating.
In the US, credit card defaults have been rising for months as a spike in unemployment and the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression took their toll on overstretched consumers.
Banks such as Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo and credit card issuers such as American Express have suffered billions of dollars in losses in their credit card portfolios and have warned of more to come.
The rate of US credit card losses has overtaken the rate of unemployment in recent months – a highly unusual occurrence that makes it more difficult for card issuers to forecast future losses.
In the UK, the latest credit card indices from Moody’s, the ratings agency, show that annualised charge-off rates have risen from 6.4 per cent of loans in May 2008 to 9.37 per cent in May 2009. In the US, that rate is above 10 per cent.
Analysts expect further defaults as UK unemployment rises and personal insolvencies, which reached 29,774 in the first quarter of the year, continue to increase.
The falling UK housing market and more stringent lending requirements by banks has also meant that indebted consumers can now no longer rely on withdrawing equity from their homes to pay off other debts such as credit cards or unsecured loans.
Jonathan Pierce, analyst at Credit Suisse, said in a recent note that UK credit card securitisation had suffered “a very sharp rise in arrears to a level well beyond the previous peak seen in 2006”.
UK banks, which begin reporting their first-half results next week, have already warned that they faced a sharp increase in credit card debts, although this is relatively small in the context of writedowns in other areas such as commercial lending.
Barclays, the UK’s biggest credit card lender with 11.7m UK customers through Barclaycard, said in May that UK credit card delinquencies had increased in the first quarter of the year, reflecting adverse economic conditions and rising unemployment.
As a result it had been reducing credit limits and tightening approval rates for new credit cards which were running at less than 50 per cent in March.
Lloyds Banking Group also said in May it had seen impairments rise in both secured and unsecured lending. Lloyds will have to absorb any future losses on credit cards itself as it has not been able to include credit card loans among the £260bn of toxic assets it has insured with the UK government.
With UK trends tending to trail the US by six months, analysts will be in particular watching the reporting season closely for any signs that default rates on UK securitised credit card debt is rising.
The severity of the financial crisis coupled with rising unemployment on both sides of the Atlantic have stoked fears of a substantially higher default rate in the coming months.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009




http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/02db48fa-7a11-11de-b86f-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss








buono a sapersi, vicenda Risanamento ... 'E’ vero o non è vero, che le banche comunque non rinnegano la linea che le ha sin qui comunemente ispirate verso Risanamento, tanto che nella loro prima trimestrale 2009 nessuna di esse (e comunque non le maggiori, Intesa e Unicredit che si dividono più del 50% dei 3 miliardi di sposizione) aveva accantonato un solo euro in vista delle perdite ormai evidenti, tanto evidenti da aver indotto la Procura a constatare la mancata continuità aziendale, eppure tanto negate ancor oggi da indurre le banche a confemare Zunino al 30% del capitale di Risanamento, anche al termine dell’aumento di capitale e in costanza di concordato?' ... http://www.chicago-blog.it/index.php/2009/07/risanamento-il-silenzio-degli-indecenti/
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Deutsche bank....


  • JULY 28, 2009, 6:43 A.M. ET
2nd UPDATE: Deutsche Bank 2Q Net Pft +68%; Loan Provisions Up

(Adds detail on provisions and analyst comment.)
By William Launder and Madeleine Nissen
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--Deutsche Bank AG (DB) Tuesday posted a better-than-forecast rise in net profit, as it became the latest global financial giant to get a boost from its investment banking operations, but the deteriorating economy forced it to sharply increase provisions for bad loans and its asset quality remained worrisome.

Germany's largest bank by market capitalization, said net profit surged 68% to EUR1.09 billion up from EUR649 million a year earlier, helped by a return to a profit in its trading results after a loss a year earlier. The net profit beat analyst expectations of EUR955 million.

However, bad-loan provisions rose to EUR1 billion from EUR135 million a year earlier, helping to push the shares down.
At 1017 GMT, they were off EUR4.30, or 8.3%, at EUR47.75, while the German market was down 0.1%.

Included in the bad-loan provision were EUR433 million in charges on two unamed counterparties. The provision for bad loans in Deutsche Bank's private and business clients segment increased 51% to EUR217 million in large part because of deterioration to the bank's loan book in Spain's ailing economy.

"The biggest concern now is the loan book," Dirk Becker of Kepler Capital Markets wrote. "Considering that we are all still in the recession, this could lead to further problems in the coming quarters."

Deutsche Bank, which has weathered the financial crisis better than other major German banks, didn't provide an outlook for the full year. Chief Executive Josef Ackermann did say, however, that the bank's business model positioned it well to "take full advantage of opportunities, as and when business conditions improve."

Still, the nature of the profit rise disappointed some analysts. The gain was largely driven by EUR2.61 billion in trading profit, which benefited in particular from growth in interest-rate trading, money markets and debt trading in emerging markets. Analysts often see trading profit as less stable, given the potential turbulence in markets.

Analysts had expected a EUR1.9 billion trading profit, after a EUR475 million trading loss a year earlier.

The trading gains were offset by EUR1.4 billion in "specific charges," including legal settlements and severance payments.

Markdowns fell significantly to EUR108 million during the quarter from EUR2.1 billion in the year-ago period, in part as Deutsche Bank benefited from an easing of accounting standards.

Despite the drop in write-downs, Deutsche Bank remains burdened by so-called "level 3 assets," the value of which is based on management assumptions and can't be determined using market prices or risk models. Level 3 assets totaled EUR64 billion at the end of the quarter, even after a 20% reduction from the end of the first quarter.

"These are adequate results, but after the U.S. investment banks and Credit Suisse have reported they are not a great surprise," Helvea analyst Peter Thorne wrote. The net profit was helped by EUR234 million in gains on derivative trades linked to Deutsche Bank's stake buy in Deutsche Postbank AG (DPB.XE), Thorne noted.

After accounting for a number of capital gains, impairments and other charges, Kepler analyst Becker said he considered the earnings below expectations. "We believe Deutsche Bank has now run its course after almost reaching book value," he wrote, placing his buy rating under review.

Net commission income for the quarter was EUR2.24 billion, down from EUR2.56 billion but beating analyst expectations of EUR2.14 billion. Net interest income fell to EUR2.76 billion from EUR2.95 billion and was below analyst expectations of EUR3.35 billion.

Although profits were driven by investment banking, CEO Ackermann reiterated that the bank continued taking steps to limit risks and shore up its capital and liquidity.

Deutsche Bank's balance sheet has been reduced 31% since the end of June 2008, as calculated using U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, it said.

The Tier 1 capital ratio, which analysts consider a key indicator of a bank's health, increased to 11% in the quarter from 9.3% a year earlier. Return on equity, or the amount of net profit returned as a percentage of shareholders equity, increased to 12.8% from 7.6%.

Deutsche Bank has raised about 80% of its total EUR16 billion in funding for the year, it said.

Revenue for the quarter rose to EUR7.94 billion from EUR5.43 billion. Pretax profit jumped to EUR1.32 billion from EUR642 million
 

yellow

Forumer attivo
Treasury 10 anni USA puntano ancora verso quota 3,70%circa.

L'Istituto di ricerca Macroeconomica ECRI,
riafferma e rafforza tramite i propri indicatori,
che la recessione negli USA
è oramai finita,
e si attende una vivace ripresa economica per fine anno,
escludendo lo scenario di double dip
( ;) per quest'anno ) :


WLI Growth at Fresh 5-year High
Reuters

July 24, 2009


A gauge of future U.S. economic growth edged higher in the latest week, while its measure of annual growth continued to stride at five-year highs, feeding hopes that a smooth recovery is due this year, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 118.4 in the week to July 17 from 118.1 the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate jumped to a fresh five-year high of 7.7 percent from 7.0 percent one week ago.

It was the index's highest yearly growth rate reading since the week ended May 7, 2004, when it stood at 7.8 percent.

"With WLI growth climbing to a new five-year high, it is reaffirming that the end of recession is at hand and that the U.S. economy is poised for recovery in short order," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The weekly index rose due to higher stock and commodity prices, said Achuthan

No 'double-dip' into negative growth at year-end
CNBC

July 24, 2009

Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI, appeared on CNBC this morning and reaffirmed ECRI's April forecast that the recession would end this summer. He also rejected the scenario of a double-dip back down into negative growth at the end of the year.

 

paologorgo

Chapter 11
At the start of the second quarter, the consensus estimate was that S&P 500 earnings versus Q2 '07 would be down 31.3%. As shown below, this estimate trended downward to a low of -35.1% on May 15th, picked back up again through the end of May, and then dropped to -35.2% on July 10th just when earnings season was beginning. One of the reasons the market has done so well this earnings season is because actual earnings growth has come in better than expected. Fifty percent of the S&P 500 has reported second quarter numbers, and the collective change in earnings from Q2 '07 to Q2 '08 has been -24.8%. This is a negative number, but compared to the estimates, it's a positive.
click to enlarge



http://seekingalpha.com/article/152174-q2-earnings-growth-vs-estimates
 

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