Macroeconomia Crisi finanziaria e sviluppi

[Imark]

premesso che io non ci capisco proprio una mazza,in particolare di w.s. (qui siete proprio dei maestri)

devo ammettere che SE le cose si raddrizzano ,nei tre-cinque anni è fattibile
ragionandoci un attimo poi..in effetti ,.lui ha un mancato rendimento,a questi tassi del dollaro,ridicolo

pero`sottolineo,anche se è banale,
che A ME ha stupito ,allora,che entrasse in QUEL MOMENTO,quindi:
.o c`era sotto qualche operazione di immagine (che pero`ha avuto effetto risibile),come qualcuno diceva piu`sopra
. a anche lui è UMANO e ha fatto una valutazione,diciamo almeno
tempisticamente non corretta

Diciamo pure che gli capita abbastanza di frequente... preciso: scelte giuste con timing troppo avanzato...

 

[Imark]

Fitch annuncia un taglio del capex delle società manufatturiere pari al 21% in europa occidentale e molto più drastico in altre aree della regione EMEA (Europa, Medio Oriente e Africa), come la Russia e i paesi ex CIS.

Poiché il capex è pari al 11-12% del PIL nella parte più sviluppata dell'Europa, questo solo fattore porta a stimare un calo medio del PIL europeo nell'ordine di oltre 2%.

Allego il report, in inglese.

Fitch: EMEA Industrial Companies Cut 2009 Capex by 29% to Support Credit Profiles

06 Feb 2009 5:31 AM (EST)

Fitch Ratings-London-06 February 2009: In a new report published today, Fitch Ratings says that EMEA industrial companies are using the scaling back of capital expenditure (capex) plans as the main tool to protect their credit profiles from the recessionary effects of rapidly eroding profitability and cash generation.

"Expected capex in 2009 will be substantially lower than the equivalent spent year on year in 2008 (-29%) and 2007 (-23%). In aggregate, the cut-back on plans made as recently as the middle of 2008 amounts to up to EUR36bn - one-third of the originally expected total of EUR107bn," says Moncia Insoll, Head of EMEA Industrials, Fitch Ratings.

This will have a negative impact on GDP, as business investment typically accounts for around 11-12% in developed Europe. While this is dwarfed by consumer spending, which makes up some 60% of GDP, business capex is more volatile and hence can have an important amplifying effect on the economic cycle. Fitch's Sovereign Group's latest global economic outlook (published on 4 November 2008) incorporates a decline in business investment across Europe, noting that Euro area GDP growth prospects have deteriorated sharply, and that the outlook for investment has darkened.

"The decline in business investment suggested by this bottom up review of corporate investment intentions implies further downside risk to our forecast for GDP in the Euro area, says Brian Coulton, Head of EMEA Sovereign Ratings and Global Economics, Fitch Ratings. "Lower business investment is set to amplify and prolong the decline in private demand that has so far been driven by consumer expenditure and residential investment," he added.

The contraction is, as expected, most notable for the more cyclical industries, i.e. construction & property and basic materials. Such behaviour is normal in a downturn, although the magnitude of current cut-backs exceeds that seen in prior recessions. From a regional perspective, companies domiciled in Russia/CIS are planning the sharpest cuts, in line with the inherently more volatile developments of emerging markets. Companies domiciled in developed Europe are expecting to reduce capex by around 21%.

Major companies, especially in the investment grade universe, are presently undertaking capex cuts mainly on a voluntary basis. Hence, from a macro economic perspective, there is a possible deferred upside to GDP to the extent firms rejuvenate delayed plans once they believe demand is recovering. However, where investment is curtailed due to lack of finance, the deferred positive effect is more uncertain. This may be the case for small and medium-sized enterprises who are suffering from the reduced availability of bank funding. Fitch reviewed the individual plans for 2009 of 86 industrial corporates domiciled in Europe (including Russia and the CIS), the Middle East and Africa.

Furthermore, the agency's top-down assessments of capex plans by other corporate sectors, including the capital intensive energy and telecommunications industries, indicate that the findings for the industrials sphere are broadly representative of the wider economy. The report, entitled "EMEA Industrial Capital Expenditure Cut-backs: Supporting Corporate Credit Profiles but Exacerbating Economic Slowdown" is available on the agency's public website, www.fitchratings.com

 

[ZYGMUNT]

Bank of France’s Governor Noyer Says Recession May Be Brief
By Gregory Viscusi

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The world’s major economies could emerge from recession by the end of this year, boosted by low commodity prices, reduced interest rates and government stimulus packages, said European Central Bank Governing Council member Christian Noyer.

“Several factors make us think it’s not unrealistic to imagine pulling out of recession by the end of the year,” Noyer, who is governor of the Bank of France, said in an interview with France Culture radio.

Noyer also defended French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s response to the economic crisis, described French banks as “largely healthy” and said it’s “unthinkable” that any of the euro zone’s 16 members would abandon the single currency.

Noyer said Sarkozy was right to focus economic stimulus measures on investment, and not on boosting salaries, as unions and opposition parties have suggested.

“Investment has a very good transmission effect, it puts people back to work,” he said. “If you raise salaries, the extra money might just be saved, which does nothing to stimulate.”

He also said the French government’s plan to bring forward planned public works projects means work can get started right away, and that “it won’t create a hard core of permanent spending.”

Noyer said that while governments are right to let their budget deficits grow to stimulate the economy, “to maintain confidence they should explain how they plan to return to balanced budgets.”

He said there was no sign that France’s largest banks are restricting credit, and that loans to companies were running about 9 to 10 percent above their levels last year.

‘Problems to Resolve’

“French banks are affected by the crisis because the world banking system is interdependent, but it’s not the heart of their activities that’s affected,” he said.

Some countries in the euro zone, including Ireland, Spain and Greece, “had problems to resolve, and their governments are aware and working on it,” he told the radio station.

The recent decision by Standard & Poor’s to strip Spanish government debt of its top notch rating “was the equivalent of going from a 20/20 to 19/20,” he said, referring to the French school grading system.

Withdrawing from the common currency “would be dramatic and no one is even thinking about it,” he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aXcYcpdeiuZU&refer=economy

beh, se lo dice lui..
in questi casi sono d'accordo con Tremonti : meglio che certi personaggi tacciano

 

[paologorgo]

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner warned U.S. House Democrats on Saturday that the U.S. financial system remains "badly damaged," but that the Obama administration planned to act both quickly and aggressively to deal with the crisis, according to one lawmaker present.
"He did say that some institutions are so frail that they would not survive," said Rep. Brad Miller, a Democrat from North Carolina and a member of the House Financial Services Committee.
Geithner spoke at the House Democrat's three-day policy retreat in Williamsburg, Va., on Saturday. Miller said the secretary did not offer specific details about the Treasury's plan to use the second $350 billion of the financial rescue package, which is scheduled to be announced midday Monday in a much-anticipated speech by Geithner. His opening remarks were perhaps 10 minutes, Miller said, and the speech was delayed five or 10 minutes while Geithner spoke to President Barack Obama.
Instead of offering specifics, Geithner used the opportunity to discuss his own background as well as the challenges facing the U.S. economy. Miller said Geithner used the phrase "badly damaged" to describe the financial system and stressed the need to address the issue in one major policy push.
"He said it's clearly going to get worse but we have to act to prevent it from getting much worse," Miller said.
Geithner used the opportunity to address the widespread anger about the Treasury's use of the first $350 billion of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, calling it "justified," according to Miller. That acknowledgment, along with Geithner's recounting of his own life story to open his speech, reassured lawmakers that he can see beyond Wall Street's interests and deal with the economic plight of average Americans, the House Democrat said.
"The concern has been that the Obama economic team has been breathing rarefied air for so long that they've forgotten how ordinary Americans think," Miller said.
Regarding the administration's plan to use the second half of the TARP funds, Miller said Geithner's comments suggested the details were still being finalized. He did acknowledge that a portion of the plan will be used to stem foreclosures, including what Geithner called "careful bankruptcy reform."
Miller, who has sponsored legislation opposed by the financial services industry to allow bankruptcy judges to rework the terms of mortgage loans, said he would wait to see what "careful" means, but that he was glad that the administration is committed to dealing with foreclosures.
The speech made it clear, Miller said, that the financial system remains fragile.
"I don't think we know yet how bad the industry's insolvency problem is," Miller said. "If we had regulators go in and examine the books like we did at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a great number of our systemically important financial institutions could be insolvent."

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090207-700587.html

 

[troppidebiti]

GERMANIA: RESPINTE DIMISSIONI MINISTRO ECONOMIA GLOS

Il governatore e leader del partito cristiano-sociale (Csu), Horst Seehofer, ha respinto a strettissimo giro di posta la richiesta di dimissioni presentatagli dal suo compagno di partito e ministro federale dell'Economia, Michael Glos. "Ho telefonato a Glos per confermargli la mia fiducia e per comunicargli che non accolgo la sua richiesta", ha spiegato Seehofer. Il ministro, che aveva motivato l'intenzione di abbandonare il suo dicastero con il suo desiderio di far largo ai giovani, portando come motivo determinante la sua eta' di 65 anni, rimarra' dunque in carica fino al 27 settembre, giorno in cui si svolgeranno le elezioni politiche. Il colpo di scena di oggi non sembra tuttavia fatto per far aumentare l'adesione degli elettori bavaresi alla Csu, che nelle elezioni del settembre scorso ha subito un pesantissima batosta, perdendo dopo piu' di 40 anni la maggioranza assoluta nel parlamento bavarese, con un crollo del 17,3 per cento. Se le elezioni europee dovessero confermare questo forte distacco della base elettorale nei confronti della Csu, la prima a subirne un danno rilevante sarebbe Angela Merkel, che vedrebbe messe fortemente a rischio le speranze di rielezione nel voto di settembre. L'ultimo sondaggio effettuato ieri dalla prima rete televisiva pubblica Ard ha messo in evidenza un improvviso crollo di tre punti, che ha fatto scendere la Cdu/Csu al 34 per cento. L'unico motivo di consolazione per la Merkel e' che il partito socialdemocratico continua a non andare piu' in la' del 25 per cento, ma da qui a fine settembre potrebbero ancora succedere molte cose e la forbice del distacco tra Cdu/Csu e Spd potrebbe restringersi parecchio. Un'incognita incalcolabile potrebbe anche essere il comportamento degli elettori cattolici in seguito alle critiche formulate nei giorni scorsi dalla Merkel a Benedetto XVI, con la richiesta di fare chiarezza sull'atteggiamento della Chiesa nei riguardi dell'Olocausto. Diversi esponenti della Cdu e della Csu avevano apertamente criticato il cancelliere, mentre il quotidiano conservatore 'Die Welt' ha scritto che la Merkel potrebbe pagare un prezzo elettorale per la critica espressa in maniera cosi' aperta.






poche volte ho sentito di dimissioni del ministro dell' economia tedesco BAH....il mondo cambia....tra l' altro le dimissioni sono state rifiutate

 

[stockuccio]

tutti cercano di far bere il cavallo .... tutte le manovre messe in atto ovunque sembrano sempre più tentativi inutili di salvare un insalvabile sistema ... siamo forse troppi al mondo (non auspico mica stragi beninteso)
economia solidale, social business, equità distributiva, finanza etica, e chi più ne ha più ne metta ... questi mi sembrano i temi sui quali bisognerebbe ci fosse il confronto nel mondo ...
riporto l'ultimo periodo tratto dalll'ultimo post di Mazzalai ...
' Amartya Sen ad esempio ha un' immagine della vita dell’uomo come due fiumi, l'essere e il fare che confluiscono in un'unico oceano, lo stile di vita, un particolare stile di vita. Quindi il benessere non è solo avere, non solo in funzione del reddito o del patrimonio ma principalmente significa essere libero di realizzare la propria essenza, una libertà che non può essere tale se il suo stato sociale ed economico è un insieme di privazioni, di ingiustizie, di mancanza di equità.
Essere o non essere, questo in fondo è il problema!'

 

[lorenzo63]

Diciamo pure che gli capita abbastanza di frequente... preciso: scelte giuste con timing troppo avanzato...

Ricordo qualche anno addietro (5/6-10? boh!) quando puntando sul rialzo dei corsi dell 'argento era diventato praticamente proprietario al 90% dell' argento mondiale ... se nn mi ricordo male nn fu un successo..
e comunque è vero : riandando ai suoi acquisti, scelte giuste ma sempre prima..

 

[yellow]

Ricordo qualche anno addietro (5/6-10? boh!) quando puntando sul rialzo dei corsi dell 'argento era diventato praticamente proprietario al 90% dell' argento mondiale ... se nn mi ricordo male nn fu un successo..
e comunque è vero : riandando ai suoi acquisti, scelte giuste ma sempre prima..

La grande speculazione sull'argento la fecero due ( credo ) fratelli canadesi, che praticamente si arenarono.

 

[yellow]

Bank of France’s Governor Noyer Says Recession May Be Brief
By Gregory Viscusi

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The world’s major economies could emerge from recession by the end of this year, boosted by low commodity prices, reduced interest rates and government stimulus packages, said European Central Bank Governing Council member Christian Noyer.

“Several factors make us think it’s not unrealistic to imagine pulling out of recession by the end of the year,” Noyer, who is governor of the Bank of France, said in an interview with France Culture radio.

Noyer also defended French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s response to the economic crisis, described French banks as “largely healthy” and said it’s “unthinkable” that any of the euro zone’s 16 members would abandon the single currency.

Noyer said Sarkozy was right to focus economic stimulus measures on investment, and not on boosting salaries, as unions and opposition parties have suggested.

“Investment has a very good transmission effect, it puts people back to work,” he said. “If you raise salaries, the extra money might just be saved, which does nothing to stimulate.”

He also said the French government’s plan to bring forward planned public works projects means work can get started right away, and that “it won’t create a hard core of permanent spending.”

Noyer said that while governments are right to let their budget deficits grow to stimulate the economy, “to maintain confidence they should explain how they plan to return to balanced budgets.”

He said there was no sign that France’s largest banks are restricting credit, and that loans to companies were running about 9 to 10 percent above their levels last year.

‘Problems to Resolve’

“French banks are affected by the crisis because the world banking system is interdependent, but it’s not the heart of their activities that’s affected,” he said.

Some countries in the euro zone, including Ireland, Spain and Greece, “had problems to resolve, and their governments are aware and working on it,” he told the radio station.

The recent decision by Standard & Poor’s to strip Spanish government debt of its top notch rating “was the equivalent of going from a 20/20 to 19/20,” he said, referring to the French school grading system.

Withdrawing from the common currency “would be dramatic and no one is even thinking about it,” he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aXcYcpdeiuZU&refer=economy

Questa volta rischia di prenderci/azzeccarla la prognosi,
poichè se le quotazioni dell'oil e delle altre materie prime
( tipo gas-metalli etc. etc.) permangono sugli attuali livelli o addirittura
si inclinassero ( strategist Morgan Stanley vedono l'Oil ancora depresso ),
questo comporterebbe/porterebbe un non indifferente beneficio DIRETTO
ed immediato sulle tasche dei consumatori,
delle aziende produttrici/indotto etc. etc.

In pratica sarebbe come una robusta manovra finanziaria a favore dell'intera platea europea, e l'italia essendo fortemente/totalmente dipendente di tali approvigionamenti ne beneficierebbe anche più di altre.

Peccato che la zavorra e l'incapacità della classe politica italiana
annacqui tali vantaggi in misura significativa.

 

[Capirex85]

???????? ma allora perchè ha messo 4 mld di $ in ottobre in GE?

Perchè quelle sono preferred stock, non common stock. La scommessa principale è sulla sopravvivenza di GE.

Perchè con la Berkshire deve investire decine di miliardi di dollari e non può usare una strategia di investimento che userebbe se dovesse investire qualche milione di dollari.