Macroeconomia Crisi finanziaria e sviluppi

Segnali :(negativi nelle ultime settimane dall'indice dei noli marittimi che dopo aver varcato quota 2000 è indietreggiato :( :http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=bdiy&exch=IND&x=15&y=11

D'altra parte un indicatore industrialmente importante come il Rame,
è in " relativa " salute :http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602013&sid=aIW.CQikILlk&refer=commodity_futures

Sembrerebbe la Cina, che, visti i prezzi particolarmente bassi, ne stà facendo incetta...
Comunque il rame dovrebbe essere l' anticipatore per eccellenza... ma mi sà che stavolta..
 
un pò di terrorismo ... c'è anche GE tra i declassati ... marasma previsto per novembre


Moody's downgraded $1.76 trln U.S. corp debt in Q1
Wed Apr 1, 2009 5:49pm EDT


NEW YORK, April 1 (Reuters) - Corporate America's credit quality collapsed in the first quarter, with Moody's Investors Service downgrading an estimated $1.76 trillion of debt, a record high, the rating agency said on Wednesday.

The downgrades included a record number to the lowest rating categories, signaling the approach of the worst defaults since at least World War Two, Moody's chief economist John Lonski said in an interview.

"These are numbers that just underscore how risky both the financial and economic environment remain," Lonski said.

The downgrades reflect how badly corporate balance sheets have been hurt by the slump in consumer spending amid the deepest economic contraction since 1982.

"Business sales and profits fell off the table in general during the final quarter of last year and have continued to deteriorate in the first quarter in 2009," Lonski said.

U.S. corporate profits plunged a record $120.1 billion in the fourth quarter, depressed by tumbling consumer spending and exports.

Downgrades of investment-grade companies shot up by 153 percent from the year-ago quarter to a record 96, while downgrades of junk-rated companies surged by 147 percent to 287.

The rating downgrades were led by industries with exposure to the ailing housing industry, including homebuilders, mortgage insurers and major money center banks. Some 70 of the quarter's downgrades were housing related.

"The most prominent new driving force behind credit rating reductions would be deterioration of commercial real estate," Lonski said. That is taking a toll on regional banks and companies that manufacture equipment and material used in construction, he said.

The downgrades included one of the largest on record, $326 billion of bonds and preferred shares of General Electric Co (GE.N) and its units. Other major borrowers downgraded included Ford Motor Co (F.N), Citigroup (C.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N).

In addition to housing, sectors under rating pressure included automakers and auto parts suppliers, media companies, casinos and retailers.

Among the downgrades were 22 fallen angels, or companies cut to junk status. In addition, 82 ratings were downgraded to the lowest categories, Caa3 or lower. That means that the U.S. high-yield default rate, which stood at 5.7 percent in February, is destined to climb sharply in short order, Lonski said.

Moody's has forecast that the U.S. default rate will peak around 14.5 percent in November. (Reporting by Dena Aubin; Editing by Leslie Adler) ([email protected]; +1-646-223-6325; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]))
 
non hai un pezzetto di terra da metterci una pala eolica ?... faccio per dire



c'è chi fa -40% (il mercato auto USA) e chi fa +40% ... l'Europa non è messa come gli USA ... sorry

Mercato automobilistico in decisa ripresa in Germania. Secondo i dati prodotti da Vdik - l'associazione tedesca dei produttori d'auto - infatti, le immatricolazioni di auto in quello che è considerato il più grande mercato europeo, sono balzate a marzo del 40%, raggiungendo le 401 mila unità, grazie agli incentivi introdotti dal Governo.
Il Governo di Berlino starebbe così pensando di prorogare le agevolazioni che prevedono uno sconto fino a 2.500 euro per i proprietari di vecchie auto che ne acquistano una nuova.
 
non potrei far altro che ripetere il mio commento del post 913 ...
il 'deeply concerned' di Levitt per il falso in bilancio introdotto come legge in USA mi pare sempre troppo poco
sapere in anticipo che il bilancio che ti appresti a leggere per capire se è il caso di investire o meno è FALSO dovrebbe far riflettere gli investitori 'normali'

sto seguendo la 'diretta' sul G20 di Repubblica ... ma purtroppo mancano i pettegolezzi piccanti http://www.repubblica.it/2009/04/dirette/sezioni/economia/g-20/g-20/index.html
 
Bankruptcy Is Vital to Capitalism

Già il titolo è tutto un programma......


Da leggere tutto d'un fiato...domandosi perchè, il fiato, non l' abbia trattenuto 20 minuti (ma anche 10 sarebbero stati sufficienti per impedire all' autore di scrivere :D)

America is relearning an old lesson: Failure and bankruptcy are essential to capitalism.

Bankruptcy is an orderly way to give an overburdened debtor a fresh start and to decide which creditors get paid back and which don't. As Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz teaches: Bankruptcy is a way to cope with those times when markets fail to allocate capital wisely and monitor its use.

In good times, bankruptcy is a way to encourage risk-taking. After all, an economy in which everyone fears trying something that might fail is a stagnant one. But the roots of modern American business bankruptcy date to bad times like today
At the end of the 19th century, nearly 20% of the railroad track belonged to insolvent railroads, says David Skeel, a University of Pennsylvania law professor who has written a history of bankruptcy. With state governments unable to deal with railroads that stretched beyond their borders, and Congress hamstrung by a narrow interpretation of the Constitution, creditors turned to courts. Judges fashioned an approach to divvy up assets among creditors that was codified in an 1898 law, the spirit of which survives today.

General Motors and Chrysler are 21st century analogs of 19th century railroads. They cannot pay their debts; the only issue now is how, not whether, their creditors take a hit. The only difference between GM today and GM in bankruptcy court is that the president and his appointees are making the decisions, instead of a bankruptcy judge constrained by federal law.

Avoiding bankruptcy requires consent of creditors. "In theory, you can do a full bankruptcy through agreement among the parties, but that usually doesn't work," says David Moss, a Harvard Business School professor. "You usually have at least one holdout," in this case GM's bondholders. New Deal changes to the law made cutting deals harder. The view was that an open process with clear rules was more likely to produce a fair result, not one that favored Wall Street types.

With that view in mind, President Barack Obama's critics say the government has no business picking GM's chief executive and apportioning losses among auto workers, pensioners, suppliers and lenders. They fear "politics" will produce unfair or unwise decisions, such as protecting lenders and workers in the domestic auto industry at taxpayer expense while lenders and workers in less politically salient industries suffer.

But sometimes "politics" is just another word for "democracy." The people are having a hard time understanding why big banks and insurers get bailouts and GM gets bankruptcy. It's hard to convince laid-off auto workers that banks and their credit are the vital circulatory system of the U.S. economy, more important than any one industry, even one as large as domestic auto makers. Mr. Obama knows he almost certainly will need more taxpayer money to resuscitate the nation's banks; that won't be popular. If making a very public effort to avoid bankruptcy fails, he will say: I tried, but it just couldn't be done. That may help him get Congress to approve money for the banks.

What about big financial houses, though? Why can't they go through bankruptcy the way Macy's and Delta Air Lines did? One reason is that a retailer or airline can shed debts and then operate stores and airplanes. Financial institutions have nothing so tangible: They basically have their names, their people and their ability to borrow a lot of money short term. All of that can vanish instantly while a judge ponders the matter. So the U.S. devised a bankruptcy substitute for banks: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. does the deed quickly without a judge.

The Treasury and the Federal Reserve want a similar pseudo-bankruptcy process for big financial institutions to avoid the problems of Lehman Brothers (whose bankruptcy coincided with a bad turn in the crisis and some say caused it) and American International Group (which didn't go into bankruptcy, at substantial cost to taxpayers). They want better choices next time, and they don't think conventional bankruptcy is practical.

Not everyone sees it that way. "The usual reaction if one mentions bankruptcy as a mechanism for addressing a financial institution's default is incredulity," Mr. Skeel and Northwestern University's Kenneth Ayotte wrote recently. "Those who favor the rescue of financial institutions...treat bankruptcy as anathema. Everyone seems to argue that nothing good can come from bankruptcy." They disagree, and would tweak bankruptcy laws to deal with the peculiarities of finance so the rules are clear to all -- and the Treasury secretary and Fed chairman have less discretion.

Bankruptcy is not a death sentence. It's more like an organ transplant. It can save a company's life, but sometimes the patient dies. Bankruptcy is unpleasant and should never be so easy that it encourages foolishness. Headline-making bankruptcies of several brand-name companies at a moment of severe economic crisis can so undermine confidence in the economy that avoiding them makes sense.

But bankruptcy, or some other orderly process to share the pain, is the only way to prevent mistakes and debts of the past from hobbling an economy's future
 
che dire ... altri 5000 miliardi ... nella lista dei paradisi che diramerà l'OCSE spererei di trovarci anche il delaware .... buone intenzioni ci sono, come i mega stipendi ... bisognerà vedere in concreto ... tra le buone intenzioni NON metto il FASB ... le banche valutano a 90/95 monnezza varia http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/ridiculous-marks-of-toxic-assets.html

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/willie040109.html ... uno stralcio ...

Last week, China was highlighted at turning the global USDollar tables. They have begun to displace the US$ within their domestic banking system, in favor of the Chinese yuan. Actually, they will soon be issuing Chinese Govt debt securities denominated in yuan currency. Doing so involves wave after wave of conversion of USTBond securities into cash, then conversion further in to Yuan Debt securities, which still need a new name. How about Dragon Bonds for a name??? The Chinese will then wear and presumably use the great currency boot, since all economies that wish to purchase Chinese products must purchase Chinese Govt bonds!!!

The Chinese are also leading a movement to create an Emergency Fund for the Assn of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), one which will assist in defense of any hotmoney attacks against a smaller Asian nation. In 1997, the Asian Meltdown was triggered by hotmoney attacks waged against Thailand and South Korea. My personal belief is that the Emergency Fund will blossom into a pan-Asian Regional Bond Fund for economic development. The Asian-only fund will essentially serve as a gigantic regional savings account, free from Western control and pressures, independent from Western currency risk, and operate as a regional economic development fund.

The latest big currency news is between the central banks of China and Argentina. They reached an agreement for a three-year, $10 billion currency swap, disclosed by the Chinese Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan. One can rest assured that their USTreasury Bonds will supply the funds. The move follows swap accords between China and Indonesia, South Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Belarus. The agreement broadens Argentina's access to foreign currency reserves in order to achieve stability. Argentina was excluded last autumn 2008 from the USDollar Swap Facility program created by the USFed for emerging markets, which were designed to aid Brazil and Mexico. Watch Venezuela and Iran be next for Chinese swap stations. One can conclude that China is expanding its stations globally for creating the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency in competition with the USDollar.
 

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