E' meglio che si guardi il grafico al link presente nel testo .......
LONDON, June 10 (IFR) - A combination of liquidity, duration and inflation risk
premiums has turned around to help global bond yields move higher. Eurozone
yields have been leading the charge higher, largely due to a turnaround in
excessive ECB QE expectations. With 10yr Bunds having firmly breached the 1.00%
level, the question now is what happens next.
Technically there will be a lot of focus on the 10yr Bund yields around the
1.12/1.125% level, which acted as support during 2012/13 andthen shifted to
resistance late last year (see
http://link.reuters.com/dys84w). A break here
would certainly help to pressure more structural longs, who had been hoping to
invest in an asset with lower volatility and predictable yield.
The degree ofpain should not be overestimated, though, as many of these buyers
will be buy-and-hold types. But for those not in this camp, it will be a
difficult end to the half-year and quarter given the recent price action.
Multi-asset managers will have theluxury of taking some profit on their equity
holdings to help compensate for the dismal returns on bonds. We are likely to
see volatility remain a feature for both equities and bonds heading into
quarter-end.
A roadmap that could provide a usefulguide is the lesson from the early months
of Fed and BoE QE. After QE was announced by the Fed and BoE in March 2009,
yields on 10yr Treasuries and Gilts moved higher by 80-100bp in the following
three months. And indeed we were surprised that 10yrBunds did not follow a
similar pattern after the ECB QE announcement in January.
While 10yr Bund yields are up some 100bp from their April lows, some 45bp of
this move was largely a reversal of excessive optimism over the impact of QE. If
Bunds are to follow the pattern of Treasuries and Gilts back in 2009, then we
could be looking at a further 15-45bp upside on 10yr yields. For a chart of 10yr