Natural gas futures may rise on speculation inventories will stay below year-ago levels as cooler weather begins to boost demand, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
Nine of 20 analysts, or 45 percent, forecast gas futures will rise on the New York Mercantile Exchange through Sept. 24. Eight, or 40 percent, predicted prices will fall and three said there would be little change. Last week, 39 percent of participants said gas would fall.
Prices have risen 7.6 percent from a year ago as a hot summer and stronger industrial gas demand created a year-on-year stockpile deficit. U.S. supplies totaled 3.267 trillion cubic feet as of Sept. 10, 5.3 percent below levels a year earlier, according to the Energy Department.
“It looks as though the natural gas market has established an important seasonal low,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “With storage more than 5 percent below year-ago levels, we could see a rally into mid-October like the one we saw a year ago.”
Natural gas for October delivery rose 17.9 cents, or 4.6 percent, to $4.062 per million British thermal units in the first four days of this week on the New York exchange.
Colder-than-normal weather is likely in the central and western U.S. this winter, according to Joe Bastardi, a forecaster with AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. Temperatures in Detroit, Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis will be about a degree cooler than average, Bastardi wrote in a note to clients.
About 53 percent of U.S. households use gas for heating.
Price Forecast
The Energy Department cut its gas price estimate in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on Sept. 8. Henry Hub spot prices will average $4.54 per million Btu this year, down 3.2 percent from last month’s estimate of $4.69.
Spot prices at Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana, rose 2.9 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $4.09 per million Btu today on the Intercontinental Exchange.
The gas survey has correctly forecast the direction of prices 48 percent of the time since its June 2004 introduction.
Bloomberg’s survey of natural-gas analysts and traders asks for an assessment of whether Nymex natural-gas futures will probably rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming week. This week’s results were:
RISE FALL NEUTRAL
9 8 3
...il tuo scenario necessita di un ciclo di espansione economica,...tutto il contrario di quello che penso io....al momento vedo molto piu' vicino il double dip....ma rispetto la tua wiew
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