Giappone

[risparmier]

02 Dec 2010

Goldman Sachs' renowned global economics, commodities and strategy team has published five of its top trades for 2011, recommending long positions in US large-cap commercial banks and a Japanese equity index ... In a separate note today it published themes for next year, but these are the specific trades the bank thinks will make the money.

....

Short $/Chinese Yuan via two-year non-deliverable forwards, currently at 6.41, for an expected return of 6%
....
• Long US Large-Cap Commercial Banks (via the BKX index). Currently at 44.8, with a target of 57, expected return +25%
The improved US economic outlook in 2011 and 2012 is "one of the most important shifts in our global macro view", the bank says. The report recommends going long US banks via the BKX index, or alternatively the KBE exchange-traded fund, as an attractive way to gain exposure to "a more constructive domestic US story."
• Long US High Yield, selling protection on the CDX 15 index (a CDS index), Currently at 528, with a target of 450, expected return of 8.7%
Goldman Sachs also recommends going long the high-yield corporate bond market by selling protection on the CDX HY index.

• Long Nikkei 225 (NKY) – at 9988, target 12,000, expected return +20%
While the Japanese equity market index has underpeformed against rival developed markets for the latter part of the year, Goldman Sachs points out the market has a significant beta to the global industrial cycle. Goldman expects high beta to a reaccelerating global cycle, real GDP growth and easy fiscal policy domestically to combine and secure outperformance.
...

Goldman Sachs' top trades for 2011

 

[risparmier]

giovedì 6 gennaio 2011 08:10

Il Nikkei ha chiuso in rialzo dell'1,44% toccando un massimo a otto mesi, trascinato dal balzo del dollaro sullo yen che ha favorito gli esportatori in particolare.
Il biglietto verde è tornato infatti a scambiare sopra gli 83 yen, rafforzato dal dato a sorpresa positivo degli occupati Usa nel settore privato diffuso ieri, segnale di una ripresa dell'economia americana.
"I mercati ora aspetteranno per il dato occupati di venerdì per avere la conferma del trend positivo. Gli investitori tuttavia in un secondo momento si concentreranno sull'impatto che i dati Usa avranno sul cambio dollaro/yen", ha detto Hiroaki Osakabe, gestore fondi per Chibagin Asset Management.

.....

Borsa Tokyo, Nikkei a massimo otto mesi su scia dati Usa | Business | Reuters

 

[gipa69]

FT Alphaville Japan: land of rising contrasts

 

[risparmier]

Jan 27, 2011 1:00 AM GMT+0100

Japan’s export growth accelerated for a second month in December, signaling the nation’s recovery will gain traction as global demand picks up.
Overseas shipments rose 13.0 percent in December from a year earlier, from November’s 9.1 percent gain, the Finance Ministry said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 9.3 percent gain.

Signs of faster growth in the U.S. and China, the destination of more than a fifth of Japanese exports, indicate that overseas demand may propel the economy’s expansion into 2011. A global revival may also help Japan withstand a yen appreciation that has threatened exporters’ earnings.
“Global demand, particularly in the U.S. and China, is recovering, which is a good sign for Japan’s export-led recovery,” Susumu Kato , chief economist for Japan in Tokyo at Credit Agricole CIB and CLSA, said before the report. “Japan temporarily contracted in the fourth quarter, but the economy will likely return to a moderate recovery path this quarter, supported by exports.”


The Bank of Japan raised its growth forecast for the year through March and predicted faster inflation as strength in overseas demand bolsters exports and pushes up commodity prices. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on Jan. 25 that “the economy will probably emerge from its slump soon and return to a moderate recovery path,” after the bank boosted its economic expansion projection to 3.3 percent from 2.1 percent.
....
The Japanese currency has climbed more than 9 percent in the past year.
Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest automaker, may move more production outside of Japan if the strength of the yen weighs on its profits.
Relocating factories “is not something I want to do,” President Akio Toyoda said in a statement on the company’s website on Jan. 14. “If we are simply unable to make a profit, however, we may be forced to move our production elsewhere.”
...

Japan?s Export Growth Accelerated for Second Month - Bloomberg


http://translate.google.it/

 

[risparmier]

Jan 28, 2011

After being on negative watch for almost a year, Japan received its first debt downgrade since 2002 on Thursday, but leading Japan equity manager Paul Chesson of Invesco, thinks it is of little significance as the country's stockmarket remains cheap and its economic recovery remains on track.
.....

Japan downgrade will not derail recovery, says Invesco star - Citywire

 

[big_boom]

giovedì 6 gennaio 2011 08:10

Il Nikkei ha chiuso in rialzo dell'1,44% toccando un massimo a otto mesi, trascinato dal balzo del dollaro sullo yen che ha favorito gli esportatori in particolare.
Il biglietto verde è tornato infatti a scambiare sopra gli 83 yen, rafforzato dal dato a sorpresa positivo degli occupati Usa nel settore privato diffuso ieri, segnale di una ripresa dell'economia americana.
"I mercati ora aspetteranno per il dato occupati di venerdì per avere la conferma del trend positivo. Gli investitori tuttavia in un secondo momento si concentreranno sull'impatto che i dati Usa avranno sul cambio dollaro/yen", ha detto Hiroaki Osakabe, gestore fondi per Chibagin Asset Management.

.....

Borsa Tokyo, Nikkei a massimo otto mesi su scia dati Usa | Business | Reuters

gia' e quando stava a 100 con il dollaro il nikkei era sotto i 9.000

ma voi ci credete veramente a questa motivazioni

la realta' e che i jappan aspettano il dj sotto certi valori e si tengono piu' di 1.000 punti di spazio il resto sono quazzate

 

[risparmier]

Feb. 02, 2011 at 12:49

Investors who have been around the block a bit will argue that a Japanese fund manager tipping a long overdue rally in the Japanese stock market is as traditional a start to the calendar year as New Year’s Eve-induced hangovers or futile resolutions.
Such calls to arms are usually wrapped in well-worn clichés about rising suns and false dawns. Well, I am not going to disappoint the cynics, although I will hopefully skimp on the hackneyed imagery. We are very upbeat on the prospects for the Japanese market in 2011.
Remarkably low valuations – the lowest in developed markets – clear evidence of strong earnings growth, growing dividends and stock buybacks and the increasing prospect for M&A activity collectively make a powerful case for investors initiating or topping up their exposure to Japan this year.

We believe a long-awaited bull market in Japanese equities could be well under way already. The Japanese market, as represented by the Topix Index, is up almost 14% in sterling terms (almost 16% in yen terms) since the start of November, although typically with Japan, this has been widely overlooked by many financial commentators.
This move may partly reveal an increasing confidence in the global economic recovery reflected in strong stock market performances across the developed world in December, but it also suggests to us that investors may now be beginning to appreciate the substantial opportunity offered by the Japanese market.
Concerns bordering on obsession over the strength of the yen dominated investor sentiment for much of 2010, but a weakening in the yen and the realisation that it is not a one-way upward bet has seemingly enabled investors to focus on the compelling buy case for Japan.
Investors have arguably turned their attention from macro to micro, heeding the positive earnings story
that is unfolding in Japan, with results during the recent interim earnings season proving to be extremely impressive. According to the Nikkei newspaper, pre-tax profits were 2.4 times higher than in the first half of last year, compared to companies’ forecasts of a 70% increase.
This strong earnings performance does not come at the expense of full valuations. The Japanese market trades at book value and on a price/earnings ratio of around 15, while single-digit earnings multiples are no longer unusual in Japan.
Adding to our optimism is evidence that corporate Japan is recognising the value in the market, with companies being prepared to use their strong balance sheets to take advantage of extremely low valuations.
Over recent weeks, we have noticed a sharp increase in stock buybacks from some of the small and mid cap companies and takeover activity seems to be picking up again. In fact, 92 listed companies were bid for in 2010, at an average premium of over 30%.
Many potential takeover targets are subsidiaries of other listed companies. These companies should never have been listed in the first place and, now that their parents have cash, it makes sense for them to sort out their corporate structure by acquiring these undervalued businesses.

In any other market these stock prices would already incorporate a bid premium; the opportunity in Japan is that investors still think M&A is rare and so they do not.

....

Japan: This time I'm really bullish, says veteran manager McGlashan - Citywire

Japan: This time I'm really bullish, says veteran manager McGlashan - Citywire

 

[risparmier]

Feb. 7, 2011, 12:00 a.m. EST

Markets are up. The economy’s improving. Everyone’s happy again.
But one high-flying fund manager is striking a note of caution.
International Value Advisers’ Charles de Vaulx, whose mutual funds are about to close their doors to new clients, is holding a lot of his portfolio in cash right now — a hefty 16% of IVA Worldwide and a remarkable 21% of IVA International.
When I asked him what assets he likes in these markets, de Vaulx said it would be better to list all those he doesn’t.

“People should not own bonds,” he said, “especially not Treasury bonds.” .... He believes government borrowing is likely to unleash inflation, and bondholders are being little compensated for the danger.
....
Among stock markets, de Vaulx commented, “avoid emerging markets like the plague.” They’ve risen too far. And “avoid most commodities … with the exception of oil and natural gas.”
De Vaulx is even edgy about gold. He has been holding some gold in his portfolios for years, but recently cut it from 6.1% to 4.5% of the fund. The reason? It wasn’t behaving like gold anymore, he said. It was rising along with everything else.
The classic reason to own gold is because it isn’t correlated to your other investments. De Vaulx warns that it may face headwinds if real interest rates — in other words, interest rates minus inflation — rise.
...........
Think big in America, and think small in Japan.
In the United States, he said, go for the big company stocks. “It’s a bifurcated market. Never have large-cap, quality stocks been as cheap, in relative terms, compared with small caps and midcaps.”
...

Meanwhile, he continued, go for small caps in Japan. They’re cheaper than the big caps — and Japan is cheap overall.
“Japan is dirt cheap as a market,” de Vaulx said, the cheapest major market anywhere. But “it’s cheap for a reason. Companies don’t care about their shareholders.” Things are changing very slowly. But investors who buy very cheap stocks take on fewer risks. Many companies there are sitting on huge piles of cash too.
IVA Worldwide has about 15% of the portfolio in Japan, and IVA International about 27%. One simple way to invest in the entire Japanese market is through the iShares MSCI Japan Index exchange-traded fund , which I own. Or you could try the Japan Equity Fund (JEQ 6.42) , a closed-end fund that currently trades at an inviting 9% discount to its underlying net asset value.
Someone who wants to invest in Japanese small caps can just buy the SPDR Russell/Nomura Small Cap Japan exchange-traded fund ...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/avoid-gold-and-emerging-markets-2011-02-07?pagenumber=1

 

[risparmier]

Tue Feb 8, 2011 1:49am EST


* Toyota earnings better than expected
* 60% of Nikkei firms meet or beat expectations
* Nikkei hits 9-mth high at one point
* Shift in focus to developed markets boosts
Tokyo , Feb 8 - Japan's Nikkei average hit a newnine-month peak on Tuesday, extending gains for a third straightday as investors pile into riskier assets in developed economieson hopes for a steady economic recovery. Japan, the best-performing Asian market this year with a gainof around 4 percent, has benefited from a shift into developedmarkets and strong earnings for October-December. Thomson Reuters Starmine data shows 61 percent of Nikkei 225firms that have released their results have met or beatenanalysts' expectations for the latest quarter. The data wascollected before the market closed. Toyota Motor Corp's (7203.T) earnings released after the bellwere better than analysts expected. It reported a 47.6 percentdrop in quarterly profit, hit by slumping Japanese car sales anda firm yen, but lifted its annual operating profit forecast to550 billion yen ($6.68 billion) from a cautious 380 billion yen,as profit for the first nine months topped the original figure.
A survey of 23 analysts by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S forecastannual operating profit of 489 billion yen for Toyota.
For October-December, Toyota's operating profit was 99.07billion yen, down from 189.1 billion yen a year earlier andbeating an average estimate of 70.6 billion yen in a poll of nineanalysts by Reuters.
"Some market participants had expected the company would keepits full-year forecasts so the news is a positive surprise," saidYumi Nishimura, a senior market analyst at Daiwa SecuritiesCapital Markets, adding that Toyota's results will likely boostinvestor sentiment for Japanese stocks on Wednesday. The Nikkei's advance has also been helped by weakness inChinese mainland markets, which have been jittery about the riskof further monetary tightening and reopen on Wednesday after theweeklong Lunar New Year holiday.
"The performance of all emerging markets, including Brazil,India, Indonesia and China has been very weak this year and theshift of market focus to developed economies with lowerinflationary risk is helping Tokyo stocks," said Norihiro Fujito,a senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan StanleySecurities. The benchmark Nikkei .N225 ended up 0.4 percent or 43.94points at 10,635.98. It rose as high as 10,648.80, its highestsince May 6.
The broader Topix added 0.4 percent to 944.00. The Nikkei has gained 4.0 percent so far in 2011
.....

Nikkei at 9-mth high, Toyota to lift market mood | Reuters

 

[quicksilver]

Giappone, prossimo bilancio non fattore chiave per rating- Fitch

Reuters - 16/02/2011 13:54:39

TOKYO, 16 febbraio (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings ha detto che il dibattito in Giappone sul bilancio del prossimo anno fiscale e sulla riforma del welfare non sono elementi chiave per il rating sovrano del Paese, ma il governo deve mettere a punto piani di riforma fiscale prima che i risparmi interni si riducano.

Il primo ministro Naoto Kan sta cercando di ottenere sostegno per la sua politica dai partiti di opposizione in un parlamento diviso. Ma se da una parte la disputa politica è una preoccupazione, dall'altra è troppo presto per dire che il processo politico sia del tutto guastato, ha detto Andrew Colquhoun, direttore di Fitcf per l'area Asia-Pacifico, a Reuters in un'intervista.

Fitch ha confermato il rating 'AA-' sul Giappone con un outlook stabile, sostenuto dalla capacità del paese di finanziare il suo debito a bassi rendimenti con alla base un grande risparmio interno.

Nel medio termine, il risparmio domestico potrebbe diminuire a causa dell'allungamneto della vita della popolazione, quindi il Giappone deve agire prima sulla portata del suo debito, secondo Fitch.

"Non sarebbe un segnale positivo per la qualità della politica di bilancio" ha detto Colquhoun rispondendo alla domanda circa la possibilità che il governo non sia in grado di superare il budget il prossimo anno fiscale.

"Detto questo, io non lo vedo come un un fattore determinante per il rating. Considerazioni più a medio termine sono piuttosto ciò che stiamo guardando".

Il mese scorso, Standard & Poor's ha tagliato il rating del Giappone di un notch a 'AA-', tre livelli sotto il grado superiore, dicendo a Tokyo mancava un piano coerente per affrontare la crescita del debito.

Il rating di S&P's dopo il downgrade corrisponde a un livello di un notch più basso di quello di Moody's Investors Service, ma è allo stesso livello di Fitch.