amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
Mi consolo anche perchè il guadagno sarebbe stato il corrispondente di un cartone di free way cola al LIDL.
Portafogli e Strategie (investimento) Goodbye, Great Bond Bull Market?
Mi consolo anche perchè il guadagno sarebbe stato il corrispondente di un cartone di free way cola al LIDL.
ferdo
Utente Senior
Future tbond
apelle
Banned
ah, ok, io e panfilo stavamo seguendo il dj
gli stessi movimenti si vedono su ftbond e fbund
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
Io t-note 10 yr (sul 30 solo strategico, non tattico) e 2 Yr.
Ferdo , chiudiamo lo short sul Dollaro o ci fidiamo del tuo collega Silvio di IO ?
ferdo
Utente Senior
Ultima modifica:
9/15
Forumer storico
Siete short sul dollaro? Io sono ancora long (per poco), guardavo pure io, 1.28 mi sembra livello importante...
Ultima modifica:
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
view di JPM sul FOMC
Abstract: Today's FOMC meeting was a mixed bag: the post-meeting statement was dovish, with its retention of the "considerable time" language, while the Committee forecasts were hawkish, as they featured a noticeable move up in the interest rate projections (dots) for 2015 and 2016, and new 2017 dots that were at the upper end of expectations. We think the overall developments were modestly hawkish, on net, though that's debatable. What seems less debatable is that the message was a little confusing. Given the revised dots, it seems that most on the Committee foresee an appreciable number of rate hikes next year, and for many (not just the uber-hawks) that means a first hike in the first half of the year. This seems at odds with "considerable time" being retained on into the fourth quarter of this year. Arguably this circle was squared by Yellen in her press conference, where she downplayed the importance of the phrase, and insisted that policy is unequivocally data-dependent. Perhaps the simplest reason this language was retained may be caution about a market over-reaction, particularly at a meeting when revised exit principles are being introduced (more below) and new, higher, dots are being published. At any rate, the tension between transparency and collegiality is still evident in the dots/statement disconnect.
Turning to the details, the statement was little changed. One of the very few changes was a slightly more dovish description of inflation, which is now "running below" the Fed's target, rather than moving "somewhat closer" to that target. Beyond that there were very few changes, and most notably, no change to the interest rate forward guidance. This led to another dissent, this time by Dallas' Fisher, who joined Philadelphia's Plosser in objecting to the current forward guidance.
The economic forecasts (table below) had only a few minor changes: growth and unemployment a little lower, inflation about unchanged. The change in the interest rate forecasts, however, was more striking. The median dot in 2015 and 2016 was up 25 and 27.5 basis points, respectively. A similar result holds no matter how you slice and dice the dots. Moreover, the presentation of the "dot plot" now rounds to the nearest 0.125%-point, instead of the nearest 0.25%, as was previously the case. That might normally be expected to bias the new dots lower (for example, someone who foresaw a 0.75-1.0% target range at the end of 2015 formerly was counted as 1.0%, and is now counted as 0.875%) and so the upward revision to the dots may be slightly higher than they first appear. Today also saw the first publication of the Committee's 2017 interest rate forecast, and the median projection was 3.75%, the same as the median view of the neutral funds rate. This is in line with our expectations (link here) which, judging by the reaction we received, seemed to be at the upper end of expectations. In her press conference Yellen characterized the projections as relatively little changed, which may well be the case for this meeting, but since last September the median projection for 2016 has increased from 2.00% to 2.88%.
Finally, the Committee released revised exit principles to accompany today's statement. This document gave a broad outline of the exit strategy, but left many of the operational details unspecified. This outline was very much in keeping with the sentiment in the last few FOMC minutes. Of note was the clear hesitation to rely too heavily on the overnight repo facility, which will be used "only to the extent necessary." Consistent with this, the terms of the repo facility were revised today: while the per-counterparty cap was increased, the Fed also introduced -- for the first time -- a limit to the overall size of the facility ($300bn). The document also made explicit the view that the Committee does not anticipate asset sales in the future: a point that had previously been communicated, though with somewhat less definitiveness.
Abstract: Today's FOMC meeting was a mixed bag: the post-meeting statement was dovish, with its retention of the "considerable time" language, while the Committee forecasts were hawkish, as they featured a noticeable move up in the interest rate projections (dots) for 2015 and 2016, and new 2017 dots that were at the upper end of expectations. We think the overall developments were modestly hawkish, on net, though that's debatable. What seems less debatable is that the message was a little confusing. Given the revised dots, it seems that most on the Committee foresee an appreciable number of rate hikes next year, and for many (not just the uber-hawks) that means a first hike in the first half of the year. This seems at odds with "considerable time" being retained on into the fourth quarter of this year. Arguably this circle was squared by Yellen in her press conference, where she downplayed the importance of the phrase, and insisted that policy is unequivocally data-dependent. Perhaps the simplest reason this language was retained may be caution about a market over-reaction, particularly at a meeting when revised exit principles are being introduced (more below) and new, higher, dots are being published. At any rate, the tension between transparency and collegiality is still evident in the dots/statement disconnect.
Turning to the details, the statement was little changed. One of the very few changes was a slightly more dovish description of inflation, which is now "running below" the Fed's target, rather than moving "somewhat closer" to that target. Beyond that there were very few changes, and most notably, no change to the interest rate forward guidance. This led to another dissent, this time by Dallas' Fisher, who joined Philadelphia's Plosser in objecting to the current forward guidance.
The economic forecasts (table below) had only a few minor changes: growth and unemployment a little lower, inflation about unchanged. The change in the interest rate forecasts, however, was more striking. The median dot in 2015 and 2016 was up 25 and 27.5 basis points, respectively. A similar result holds no matter how you slice and dice the dots. Moreover, the presentation of the "dot plot" now rounds to the nearest 0.125%-point, instead of the nearest 0.25%, as was previously the case. That might normally be expected to bias the new dots lower (for example, someone who foresaw a 0.75-1.0% target range at the end of 2015 formerly was counted as 1.0%, and is now counted as 0.875%) and so the upward revision to the dots may be slightly higher than they first appear. Today also saw the first publication of the Committee's 2017 interest rate forecast, and the median projection was 3.75%, the same as the median view of the neutral funds rate. This is in line with our expectations (link here) which, judging by the reaction we received, seemed to be at the upper end of expectations. In her press conference Yellen characterized the projections as relatively little changed, which may well be the case for this meeting, but since last September the median projection for 2016 has increased from 2.00% to 2.88%.
Finally, the Committee released revised exit principles to accompany today's statement. This document gave a broad outline of the exit strategy, but left many of the operational details unspecified. This outline was very much in keeping with the sentiment in the last few FOMC minutes. Of note was the clear hesitation to rely too heavily on the overnight repo facility, which will be used "only to the extent necessary." Consistent with this, the terms of the repo facility were revised today: while the per-counterparty cap was increased, the Fed also introduced -- for the first time -- a limit to the overall size of the facility ($300bn). The document also made explicit the view that the Committee does not anticipate asset sales in the future: a point that had previously been communicated, though with somewhat less definitiveness.
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