Grains : corn, wheat, oats,soybeans, soybean meal&oil
- Creatore Discussione Fleursdumal
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Il raccolto ormai è fatto, il tempo inclemente in EU dovrebbe essere passato, lo tengono sù l'export e il $ debole
july 27, 2007
Export Sales Explode
The talk of the trade this week was, no doubt, the huge export sales number reported on Thursday morning. At 2.1 MMT, it was double the trade estimate, which in itself was already quite large at 800 – 1,000 TMT. This was the largest one-week’s worth of sales since 1996, and trade talk already is suggesting there’s another big sales number coming next week.
It was well documented that demand for US wheat had been on the rise, with several weeks of export sales consistently above trade estimates. But last week was a whopper and clearly shows that buyers are desperate for immediate needs and with European harvest problems, the buyers are coming aggressively for US supplies.
Following the export sales report all three wheat markets opened sharply higher, gapping above the June spike highs and touching limit up in the Sep Kansas City and Chicago contracts. Prices pulled off of those highs but still closed above those spike highs for most futures contracts, giving the bulls plenty of reason to think that there’s more to this run.
But it’s not just wheat needs, it’s also feed grains. And again, Europe is the catalyst as feed supplies become extremely tight and they are looking around the world for imports. While they normally feed a great deal of wheat, they are also looking for anything non-GMO that can be used as a feed grain. That demand is drawing supplies from a variety of sources, and it is supporting US corn prices because our corn will be used to fill the void left by the exported non-GMO feed grains.
I don’t know if the market can sustain the upward energy to test the all-time highs, particularly if the European harvest gets back on track. The spring wheat harvest will be the next significant event that could disrupt supply and the market will likely hang on until it is in the bin –both here in the US and in Canada.
Spring wheat harvest has begun in North Dakota, another year when the crop tour was estimating yields on some fields while other fields were already being cut. The crop tour projected average yields at 37.3 bu/acre, slightly above USDA’s current projection, with total other spring wheat production estimated at 474.9 million bushels, compared to USDA’s current projection of 497.
Despite the enormous stress the spring wheat crop has seen throughout virtually all of Montana, far western North Dakota and a great deal of the southwest Canadian prairies, it looks like the bulk of North Dakota will save the day with a very good crop that, for the most part, has had very few problems.
Obviously, the head and shoulders topping formations were negated and the market now looks to see if it can continue the momentum to those all-time highs. The bulls have a very strong technical argument that the next target is indeed those highs. The bears would argue that we’ve met long term targets and this market is struggling with this choppy, volatile price action.
They both have valid arguments, but I think the more important point is do producers hold out for those prices or take advantage of what’s offered now. At 11-year highs, one would think that decision would be easy. We also should take a long look at ’08 and ’09 prices. What are the odds of increased acreage this fall? I would think very high, not only here in the US, but worldwide. With wheat prices this high, and corn prices sharply off their highs, there is huge incentive to plant as much wheat as possible.
july 27, 2007
Export Sales Explode
The talk of the trade this week was, no doubt, the huge export sales number reported on Thursday morning. At 2.1 MMT, it was double the trade estimate, which in itself was already quite large at 800 – 1,000 TMT. This was the largest one-week’s worth of sales since 1996, and trade talk already is suggesting there’s another big sales number coming next week.
It was well documented that demand for US wheat had been on the rise, with several weeks of export sales consistently above trade estimates. But last week was a whopper and clearly shows that buyers are desperate for immediate needs and with European harvest problems, the buyers are coming aggressively for US supplies.
Following the export sales report all three wheat markets opened sharply higher, gapping above the June spike highs and touching limit up in the Sep Kansas City and Chicago contracts. Prices pulled off of those highs but still closed above those spike highs for most futures contracts, giving the bulls plenty of reason to think that there’s more to this run.
But it’s not just wheat needs, it’s also feed grains. And again, Europe is the catalyst as feed supplies become extremely tight and they are looking around the world for imports. While they normally feed a great deal of wheat, they are also looking for anything non-GMO that can be used as a feed grain. That demand is drawing supplies from a variety of sources, and it is supporting US corn prices because our corn will be used to fill the void left by the exported non-GMO feed grains.
I don’t know if the market can sustain the upward energy to test the all-time highs, particularly if the European harvest gets back on track. The spring wheat harvest will be the next significant event that could disrupt supply and the market will likely hang on until it is in the bin –both here in the US and in Canada.
Spring wheat harvest has begun in North Dakota, another year when the crop tour was estimating yields on some fields while other fields were already being cut. The crop tour projected average yields at 37.3 bu/acre, slightly above USDA’s current projection, with total other spring wheat production estimated at 474.9 million bushels, compared to USDA’s current projection of 497.
Despite the enormous stress the spring wheat crop has seen throughout virtually all of Montana, far western North Dakota and a great deal of the southwest Canadian prairies, it looks like the bulk of North Dakota will save the day with a very good crop that, for the most part, has had very few problems.
Obviously, the head and shoulders topping formations were negated and the market now looks to see if it can continue the momentum to those all-time highs. The bulls have a very strong technical argument that the next target is indeed those highs. The bears would argue that we’ve met long term targets and this market is struggling with this choppy, volatile price action.
They both have valid arguments, but I think the more important point is do producers hold out for those prices or take advantage of what’s offered now. At 11-year highs, one would think that decision would be easy. We also should take a long look at ’08 and ’09 prices. What are the odds of increased acreage this fall? I would think very high, not only here in the US, but worldwide. With wheat prices this high, and corn prices sharply off their highs, there is huge incentive to plant as much wheat as possible.
quicksilver
Forumer storico
quicksilver
Forumer storico
hai ragione 
son troppo cotto
son troppo cotto
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
inquinatori di 3d 
anche oggi wheat debole e corn in ripresa a traino della soia, quindi aria per il WC
sul wheat per la vera inversione monitorare strattamente la struttura a backward da dicembre in poi
anche oggi wheat debole e corn in ripresa a traino della soia, quindi aria per il WC
sul wheat per la vera inversione monitorare strattamente la struttura a backward da dicembre in poi
ditropan
Forumer storico
Hola Giovà 
Bisognerà aspettare almeno fino al 10 agosto ... con il prossimo report dovrebbero finire di rompere i marroni con tutta questa forza sul wheat.
Ciò che mi attendo però è che il 10, visto che l'occasione è ghiotta e palese faranno i porci come al solito e magari ti sparano un bel limit-up sul W tanto per fare saltare tutte le teste sia su chi è corto di W che chi stà sul WC (... bella la definizione "WC" !
).
Fino ad allora mi sà tanto che cincischieranno sempre su questi livelli.
Ci vuole paxiensa !
Fleursdumal ha scritto:inquinatori di 3d
anche oggi wheat debole e corn in ripresa a traino della soia, quindi aria per il WC
sul wheat per la vera inversione monitorare strattamente la struttura a backward da dicembre in poi
Bisognerà aspettare almeno fino al 10 agosto ... con il prossimo report dovrebbero finire di rompere i marroni con tutta questa forza sul wheat.
Ciò che mi attendo però è che il 10, visto che l'occasione è ghiotta e palese faranno i porci come al solito e magari ti sparano un bel limit-up sul W tanto per fare saltare tutte le teste sia su chi è corto di W che chi stà sul WC (... bella la definizione "WC" !
).Fino ad allora mi sà tanto che cincischieranno sempre su questi livelli.
Ci vuole paxiensa !
volpotten
Bond trader
Spread W - C
L'unico problema di chi opera con gli spread è di essere sottocapitalizzati e quindi di non avere margine (e fegato) per tenere in piedi posizioni in forte perdita.
Nella mia esperienza (non lunghissima, ma sufficiente), se uno sta su uno spread in forte tensione e ha sufficiente pazienza da un lato e capitale dall'altro per aspettare gli sfoghi dei cacciatori di stop poi si rientra alla grande.
Mi ricordo che nel lo spread W-C è rimasto tutta l'estate sopra 150, ha raggiunto un picco di circa 200 a metà ottobre e poi a fine inverno era a 50.
E' ciclico, bisogna aver pazienza come dice ditropan
L'unico problema di chi opera con gli spread è di essere sottocapitalizzati e quindi di non avere margine (e fegato) per tenere in piedi posizioni in forte perdita.
Nella mia esperienza (non lunghissima, ma sufficiente), se uno sta su uno spread in forte tensione e ha sufficiente pazienza da un lato e capitale dall'altro per aspettare gli sfoghi dei cacciatori di stop poi si rientra alla grande.
Mi ricordo che nel lo spread W-C è rimasto tutta l'estate sopra 150, ha raggiunto un picco di circa 200 a metà ottobre e poi a fine inverno era a 50.
E' ciclico, bisogna aver pazienza come dice ditropan
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Farm Futures Predicts Record Corn Crop
Compiled By Staff
August 6, 2007
U.S. corn growers appear ready to harvest a record crop of 12.64 billion bushels, according to new research by Farm Futures Magazine, but soybean production could fall to 2.68 billion, the lowest since 2003.
The magazine's estimates are based on an exclusive email survey of more than 600 producers conducted July 26 to August 4, as well as crop ratings published by USDA.
USDA releases its official estimates on August 10, in one of the most widely anticipated crop reports of the year.
Farm Futures estimates the average national corn yield at 147.96 bushels per acre, down slightly from the 149.1 bpa achieved in 2006. The average U.S. soybean yield was put at 42.36 bpa, also down from last year's 42.7 published by USDA.
"The corn crop pollinated under good conditions in much of the Midwest, but warmer and drier weather in July reduced the potential for above average yields," according to Farm Futures Senior Editor Bryce Knorr, who conducted the survey. "The jury is still out on soybean yields, which will be determined by August weather."
Farm Futures Market Analyst Arlan Suderman believes expanding biofuels production should continue to dominate the markets in the coming year.
"While the size of the corn crop is down from earlier estimates, it should still produce adequate stocks to satisfy record demand fueled by the booming ethanol industry," says Suderman.
"However, a 12.64 billion-bushel crop would still not build stocks sufficiently to allow corn to give up acres to soybeans in 2008, with 76 new ethanol plants currently under construction and expected to open by early 2009. The current soybean production estimate would keep stocks comfortable over the next year if it holds, but it would require a significant expansion of production in 2008 to feed the emerging global biodiesel industry."
Compiled By Staff
August 6, 2007
U.S. corn growers appear ready to harvest a record crop of 12.64 billion bushels, according to new research by Farm Futures Magazine, but soybean production could fall to 2.68 billion, the lowest since 2003.
The magazine's estimates are based on an exclusive email survey of more than 600 producers conducted July 26 to August 4, as well as crop ratings published by USDA.
USDA releases its official estimates on August 10, in one of the most widely anticipated crop reports of the year.
Farm Futures estimates the average national corn yield at 147.96 bushels per acre, down slightly from the 149.1 bpa achieved in 2006. The average U.S. soybean yield was put at 42.36 bpa, also down from last year's 42.7 published by USDA.
"The corn crop pollinated under good conditions in much of the Midwest, but warmer and drier weather in July reduced the potential for above average yields," according to Farm Futures Senior Editor Bryce Knorr, who conducted the survey. "The jury is still out on soybean yields, which will be determined by August weather."
Farm Futures Market Analyst Arlan Suderman believes expanding biofuels production should continue to dominate the markets in the coming year.
"While the size of the corn crop is down from earlier estimates, it should still produce adequate stocks to satisfy record demand fueled by the booming ethanol industry," says Suderman.
"However, a 12.64 billion-bushel crop would still not build stocks sufficiently to allow corn to give up acres to soybeans in 2008, with 76 new ethanol plants currently under construction and expected to open by early 2009. The current soybean production estimate would keep stocks comfortable over the next year if it holds, but it would require a significant expansion of production in 2008 to feed the emerging global biodiesel industry."
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
August 3, 2007
Hot Exports Support Wheat
A weak start to this week’s trading wasn’t enough to break this high flying market, and another stellar export sales report was enough to give the wheat complex a couple of positive days of trading, ending the week about where we ended last week.
Despite a snubbing by Egypt this week as they bought 150,000 MT, all from Russia, there is no arguing the huge support that our exports are creating for this wheat complex. With a weak dollar and European harvest woes, the US has started its marketing season at a breakneck pace. At only 8 weeks into the marketing year we’ve already sold 42% of total expected sales of 1.050 billion bushels, compared to 30% pace last year and a 5-year average of 31%.
Breaking down the types of wheat, soft red winter is 72% sold of the projection compared to 25% last year; hard red winter is 40% sold of the projection compared to 24% last year; hard red spring 34% compared to 32% last year; white wheat 33% compared to 27% last year; and durum 44% compared to 42% last year.
We’re also seeing a resurgence of support from the European Union, where cash prices continue to stay very strong despite a correction in their futures markets. The strength of the cash finally forced futures back up to maintain a normal basis relationship, as end users continue very nervous about supplies. The resumption of rains in the northern tier of the continent has again delayed harvest, taking yields and quality with them. This week, French production was lowered to 32.3 MMT, down 2.6 MMT from their last estimate.
Canada and Ukraine also lowered their production estimates this week while Russia offered a bit higher estimate. Canada’s all-wheat estimate now sits at 20.0 MMT, down 2.5 MMT from USDA’s latest estimate. Ukraine wheat production is projected to be 13.4 MMT, up .4 from USDA’s most recent estimate. Russia is counting on a good year despite some hot and dry conditions in their southwest region which shared in the Ukraine drought. They are projecting their wheat crop at 45-47 MMT, up 1.5 MMT from their last estimate and compared to USDA’s last estimate of 45 MMT.
We’re not forgetting about our brethren in the Southern Hemisphere, with Australia having wrapped up planting and looking much better than last year. Despite lingering dryness, they’ve had some timely rains and most major wheat regions are going into dormancy in okay shape. Argentina is still trying to complete plantings as cold and dry weather have created some delays. Generally, however, they are about on average pace with their plantings.
Informa released their US wheat production estimates ahead of USDA’s monthly crop report due to be released Friday, August 10. Their all-wheat projection is 2.154 billion bushels, compared to USDA’s last month estimate of 2.138 bb. They project other spring wheat to be 519 million bushels, 48 million above USDA.
Harvest is moving along quickly in the northern plains, with winter wheat about done and spring wheat in full swing. It was a good year for winter wheat in most of Montana, and very good spring wheat crops are being cut in much of North Dakota and regions of northeast Montana, but the farther west one goes the worse that crop looks as Mother Nature baked it the last several weeks. Canada is a similar story with the southwest regions of their spring wheat country in severe stress.
Price action is holding very well, particularly considering we’re hovering at 11-year highs. They’ve had plenty of reason to falter and break, but not enough aggressive sellers are willing to take on the market. European markets can’t seem to break either, with their cash markets completely brushing off the break in their futures markets. The aggressiveness of the end-user to step up so aggressively is also a huge warning to would-be bears that they should tread these waters carefully.
I expect that price action will remain choppy but generally hold these levels, and could well push into another leg higher on the slightest scare, until we at least get the Northern Hemisphere crop in the bin. They could hold until the Southern Hemisphere crop is in the bin as well, but I doubt we could do it without a correction first. I think that prices are near a top in both price and time, but that we haven’t seen it just yet.
Hot Exports Support Wheat
A weak start to this week’s trading wasn’t enough to break this high flying market, and another stellar export sales report was enough to give the wheat complex a couple of positive days of trading, ending the week about where we ended last week.
Despite a snubbing by Egypt this week as they bought 150,000 MT, all from Russia, there is no arguing the huge support that our exports are creating for this wheat complex. With a weak dollar and European harvest woes, the US has started its marketing season at a breakneck pace. At only 8 weeks into the marketing year we’ve already sold 42% of total expected sales of 1.050 billion bushels, compared to 30% pace last year and a 5-year average of 31%.
Breaking down the types of wheat, soft red winter is 72% sold of the projection compared to 25% last year; hard red winter is 40% sold of the projection compared to 24% last year; hard red spring 34% compared to 32% last year; white wheat 33% compared to 27% last year; and durum 44% compared to 42% last year.
We’re also seeing a resurgence of support from the European Union, where cash prices continue to stay very strong despite a correction in their futures markets. The strength of the cash finally forced futures back up to maintain a normal basis relationship, as end users continue very nervous about supplies. The resumption of rains in the northern tier of the continent has again delayed harvest, taking yields and quality with them. This week, French production was lowered to 32.3 MMT, down 2.6 MMT from their last estimate.
Canada and Ukraine also lowered their production estimates this week while Russia offered a bit higher estimate. Canada’s all-wheat estimate now sits at 20.0 MMT, down 2.5 MMT from USDA’s latest estimate. Ukraine wheat production is projected to be 13.4 MMT, up .4 from USDA’s most recent estimate. Russia is counting on a good year despite some hot and dry conditions in their southwest region which shared in the Ukraine drought. They are projecting their wheat crop at 45-47 MMT, up 1.5 MMT from their last estimate and compared to USDA’s last estimate of 45 MMT.
We’re not forgetting about our brethren in the Southern Hemisphere, with Australia having wrapped up planting and looking much better than last year. Despite lingering dryness, they’ve had some timely rains and most major wheat regions are going into dormancy in okay shape. Argentina is still trying to complete plantings as cold and dry weather have created some delays. Generally, however, they are about on average pace with their plantings.
Informa released their US wheat production estimates ahead of USDA’s monthly crop report due to be released Friday, August 10. Their all-wheat projection is 2.154 billion bushels, compared to USDA’s last month estimate of 2.138 bb. They project other spring wheat to be 519 million bushels, 48 million above USDA.
Harvest is moving along quickly in the northern plains, with winter wheat about done and spring wheat in full swing. It was a good year for winter wheat in most of Montana, and very good spring wheat crops are being cut in much of North Dakota and regions of northeast Montana, but the farther west one goes the worse that crop looks as Mother Nature baked it the last several weeks. Canada is a similar story with the southwest regions of their spring wheat country in severe stress.
Price action is holding very well, particularly considering we’re hovering at 11-year highs. They’ve had plenty of reason to falter and break, but not enough aggressive sellers are willing to take on the market. European markets can’t seem to break either, with their cash markets completely brushing off the break in their futures markets. The aggressiveness of the end-user to step up so aggressively is also a huge warning to would-be bears that they should tread these waters carefully.
I expect that price action will remain choppy but generally hold these levels, and could well push into another leg higher on the slightest scare, until we at least get the Northern Hemisphere crop in the bin. They could hold until the Southern Hemisphere crop is in the bin as well, but I doubt we could do it without a correction first. I think that prices are near a top in both price and time, but that we haven’t seen it just yet.
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