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DJ US Wheat Review: Ends Down After Hitting Fresh 11-Yr Highs
By Tom Polansek
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Profit-taking dragged down U.S. wheat futures Thursday
after prices leapt to fresh 11-year highs on tight global supplies, analysts
said.
Chicago Board of Trade September wheat closed down 5 1/2 cents at $6.73 1/2
per bushel. The contract earlier set a fresh 11-year high for a front month
contract of $6.96, exceeding the previous high of $6.82 set Wednesday.
CBOT December wheat closed down 10 cents at $6.91. The contract set a new
all-time high for a second-month of $7.10 1/2, exceeding its previous high of
$7.04.
Kansas City Board of Trade September wheat finished 1 3/4 cents lower at
$6.60 1/4. The contract set a fresh 11-year high for a front-month of $6.74,
topping the contract's previous high of $6.66.
Minneapolis Grain Exchange September wheat settled 1 1/4 cents lower at $6.70
and set a fresh 11-year high of $6.82, exceeding the previous high of $6.72
1/2.
The trade is looking ahead to the release of the U.S. Department of
Agriculture's August crop production and supply/demand reports on Friday,
analysts said. Profit-taking going into the reports pulled prices lower near
the end of the day session, traders said.
Nevertheless, there are bullish expectations the USDA will cut its estimates
for U.S. and world ending stocks. The agency also is expected to lower output
estimates for Canada and the E.U. due to adverse weather, analysts said.
Historically tight global supplies and production problems in the Northern
Hemisphere have driven up U.S. export business recently, and further reductions
could lead to more sales, an analyst said.
"We know demand is driving the market," a market analyst said. "The U.S. is
really the primary port of origin in the world for freshly harvested wheat that
is actually pretty high in quality."
Weekly U.S. wheat export sales for the week ended Aug. 2 were 890,900 metric
tons, within trade estimates of 600,000 to 1.05 million tons. Major buyers
included South Africa, which took 110,000 tons, and Taiwan, which bought
102,400 tons.
The sales were down from the past two weeks, when sales topped 1 million
tons, but still seen as solid, an analyst said. Sales more than 700,000 tons
are considered impressive, he said.
However, some market participants may have interpreted the drop-off as "a red
flag some importers are stepping back" from the market, the analyst said. That
would be bearish, he noted.
In CBOT pit trades, UBS bought 400 September. Fimat spread 1,000
September/December, and Lehman spread 1,000 May/December.
Historic highs in E.U. wheat futures were another early supportive factor for
U.S. wheat, an analyst said. Paris- and London-based wheat futures traded on
Liffe finished firmer, but off session highs.
France's agricultural ministry Thursday reinforced concerns about crop losses
due to adverse weather by pegging the country's soft wheat output at 32.9
million metric tons, 1.1% below last season's crop and down 4.4% on the
previous five-year average. The estimate is 1.8 million tons lower than the
ministry's July forecast.
Kansas City Board of Trade
Weekly export sales were seen as friendly to KCBT wheat futures, and the
market found further support from continued talk about shrinking world
supplies, a floor trader said.
Extreme weather has reduced Bulgaria's annual wheat crop to an estimated 2.2
million tons in 2007 from 3.2 million tons last year, according to government
estimates. Growing areas suffered from heat waves and floods.
The average analyst estimate for 2007-08 U.S. wheat carryout in the USDA crop
report was 402 million bushels, down from the USDA's July estimate of 418
million bushels, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
The average analyst estimate for 2007-08 U.S. all-wheat production was 2.129
billion bushels, down slightly from the USDA's July estimate of 2.138 billion,
according to the survey. In 2006, all wheat production was 1.812 billion.
The average analyst estimate for all winter wheat production was 1.554
billion, down from the USDA's July estimate of 1.562 billion. In 2006, winter
wheat production totaled 1.298 billion.
Minneapolis Grain Exchange
The average analyst estimate for other spring wheat production was 508
million bushels, up from the USDA's July estimate of 498 million, according to
the survey of analysts. In 2006, other spring wheat production was 460 million.
The average analyst estimate for durum production is 78 million bushels, down
from the USDA's July estimate of 79 million. In 2006, durum production totaled
53 million.
