Grains : corn, wheat, oats,soybeans, soybean meal&oil

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Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 8/24/2007

December wheat traded unchanged late in the session after a 10 cent range overnight.

News of a much smaller than expected crop from Canada and continued active demand from end users helped spark the sharp rally and move to new all-time highs for December futures and to the highest level for the nearby contract in 11 years. The old all-time high for nearby wheat was at $7.50 per bushel. While traders have expected demand to slow on the rally, importers have remained quite active with demand noted from India, Egypt, Iran, Morocco, Jordan, Bangladesh and Iraq. Increased demand from these players is coming at a time when exportable surplus supplies from key exporters is running dry and traders had hoped that Canada would be a more active supplier in the months ahead. Stats Canada pegged the wheat crop at just 20.32 million tonnes as compared with trade expectations at 20.8 to 22.7 million tonnes and compared with 21.5 million posted in the last USDA report. Production is expected to be down 19.6% from last year. One of Australia's key exporters indicated that there will be no wheat available until after the harvest is well underway in October. Taiwan bought 46,000 tonnes of US wheat overnight. Hard red basis at the gulf emerged at 90 cents over the December KC wheat for October shipment, which is 778 1/2, while soft red wheat cash bids are at 764-774 for October shipment.

The close below the opening yesterday after posting all-time highs for the December futures and 11-year highs for the nearby September futures might be seen as a warning flag for a high by technical traders. Nearby futures came within 9 cents of the all-time high with a high of 7.41 before closing at 722 1/2, still 4 cents higher on the day. New crop July wheat closed sharply lower after positing a contract high, and the key reversal could attract some technical selling over the near term. Funds were noted buyers of near 3,500 contracts into the mid-session. Solid export news and bullish supply news from Canada helped support the strong gains early in the session. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at 1.05 million metric tonnes, which was within trade expectations. Cumulative sales have reached 52.4% of the USDA forecast for the entire season as compared to 34.7% on average over the last five years. India is tendering for wheat with no amount posted yet. Fund buying slowed into the mid-session which sparked the steep correction off of the highs.

Hot, dry weather persists in Eastern Europe into Russia and Ukraine, which has been devastating to this summer's crops and does not bode well for winter wheat plantings unless that area receives ample rains this fall into early winter. Basis levels for soft winter wheat were steady to higher, as global supplies are tight and export demand continues to be strong. Taiwan bought 46,000 tonnes of US wheat overnight. While traders have expected demand for wheat to slow due to high prices, the slowdown has yet to materialize and traders are beginning to talk of the need for higher prices to ration demand. The International Grain Council reduced their world wheat production forecast to 607 million tonnes, down 7 million from last month. World wheat consumption was pegged at 614 million tonnes, down 3 million from last month. The market is somewhat overbought when looking at traditional technical indicators, but trend-following fund traders are still not overly long and the market is not showing signs of a classic top formation yet. We would think that Dec KC wheat is undervalued by about 30 cents against Chicago wheat.
 
l'ultimo report dell'International Grains Council . o almeno la parte aggratis visto che per il grosso bisogna sborsare i soldoni
 
il di sopra report non compare, Argyyy sistema la funzione allega documenti :D

oggi che era il giorno deputato per un ritraccio , vuoi anche per portare a casa qualche profitto per il finesettimana, manco per il ca , che dire? stiqazzi
l'unico altro punto di referimento dovrebbe essere il 650 del 96 corretto con l'inflazione, dovremmo stare attorno a 850 :eek:
appoggio alla grande l'alpin sul nonsenso del 750 fatto durante il periodo di consegna quando il mercato è fatto solo dagli stoppers e i consegnatori fisici , prezzo simile al famoso incredibile minimo sullo zucchero
Cominciano ad uscire news anche italiche visto che siamo il primo importatore al mondo :eek:

PREZZI: GRANO; CONTINUA LA CORSA, DE CASTRO PREPARA TAVOLO
(ANSA) - ROMA, 24 AGO - Il prezzo del grano continua a
correre ma il ministro De Castro invita ad "evitare inutili
allarmismi" ed intanto annuncia per le prime settimane di
settembre la convocazione di un tavolo tra distribuzione,
industria, cooperative e imprese agricole per affrontare il
problema. A segnalare l'ennesimo rialzo sono i prezzi dei future
sulle borse di Parigi e Chicago dopo che il Canada ha annunciato
che per quest'anno prevede di ridurre la produzione del 19,6%.
Ieri all'Euronext di Parigi il future sul grano consegna a
novembre ha chiuso a 237,50 euro/ton, in rialzo del 2,5% dopo
aver toccato un picco di 241,50 euro. Mentre al Chicago Board of
Trade le forniture per dicembre, dopo aver toccato i 7,54
dollari a bushel, hanno chiuso a 7,26 dollari con un aumento di
7,5 cent. In Italia, dove lo strumento dei future sulle
commodity non è ancora molto usato, gli aumenti dei prezzo sono
a 2 cifre, mese su mese: sulla borsa di Bologna il grano tenero
nazionale usato per la panificazione è salito dal 2 al 23
agosto di circa il 13,70% (da 215 a 245 euro/ton), mentre il
grano duro nazionale ha segnato un aumento di oltre il 4% (da
271 a 283 euro/ton).
Tanto è bastato per spingere il ministro De Castro a mettere
le mani avanti sul rischio di un aumento ingiustificato dei
prezzi dei beni alimentari al consumo aumento che, per pasta e
pane, non dovrebbe superare i 3, 4 centesimi al chilo. "Bisogna
evitare inutili allarmismi, mentre occorre vigilare con la
massima attenzione sui rischi, sempre possibili, di fenomeni
speculativi" ha detto il ministro annunciando che per le prime
settimane di settembre è prevista la convocazione di un tavolo
tra distribuzione, industria, cooperative e imprese agricole per
affrontare il problema. Ciò che chiede l'industria molitoria
rappresentata da Italmopa. "Dopo anni di andamento deflattivo
dei cereali - sottolineano da Italmopa - ora bisogna prevenire
gli effetti inflattivi". E l'Italia è particolarmente
vulnerabile essendo il primo importatore di grano del mondo. Al
di là dell'aumento dei prezzi, Italmopa denuncia il crescente
squilibrio tra offerta e domanda internazionale di frumento che
si è tradotto in una preoccupante riduzione delle scorte
mondiali (scese a 111 milioni di tonnellate).
Peggio va in Europa dove le scorte strategiche di frumento
detenute dagli Organismi nazionali di intervento sono state,
secondo Italmopa, "ormai totalmente esaurite". Come primo
importatore di grano l'Italia è fortemente condizionata
dall'andamento dei prezzi globali. Sono da escludere effetti da
una filiera nazionale no-food che per il momento è quasi
inesistente e non è nemmeno corretto imputare l'aumento dei
prezzi a un calo della produzione che con il raccolto 2007 ha
segnato un incremento dello 0,8% per il grano duro e dello 0,6%
per i grano tenero (nonostante la produttività per ettaro è
diminuita del 10% a causa del clima). Delle cause ci sono ma
sono da cercare fuori dall'Italia: aumento della popolazione
mondiale, cambiamento degli usi alimentari, effetto dello
sviluppo dei biocarburanti. Uno scenario per il quale bisogna
prepararsi in tempo.
 
Modello previsionale per l'australia ... per fare funzionare il modello selezionare i seguenti valori nei rispettivi campi :

"model" = GFS
"level" = precip Type
"domain" = Australia
"model run" = 18z

Cliccate sul pulsante 'Add a Map'

.. e poi su 'animate'

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=AU

... vi salterà fuori una mappa come questa ...
... dove in verde è indicata la precipitazione (pioggia)

1188030293azz1.jpg



Tra l'altro nel modellino vedo che è prevista pioggia pure in soudamerica ... fosse che fosse che hanno finito di rompere i marroni sul wheat ?

1188030940azz2.jpg
 
Grain Market Thoughts
August 24, 2007
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Name: Lee Gaus

Company: EFG Group

Years Trading: 30

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ARE THE HIGHS IN FOR CORN?

Corn: From the low made on the 15th of September to the recent high made on the 4th of October, the December Corn rallied forty cents. It is the belief that this rally for the most part has been in sympathy with the Wheat market.

All three of my indicators are now pointing higher for Corn.

Projection: There are those that believe December Corn has reached the near term high and are recommending the short side of the market. I am a little cautious about selling right in here for several reasons. Firstly, there is a trade I like better that I will cover later. Secondly, as of this writing Corn is not overbought using the 14 day RSI.
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Corn Market
Flat price corn finishes where it left off last week; trying to move higher after support had been honored. Many in the trade are trying to move towards a “demand” bias vs. a “supply” bias. Most feel the US corn crop has been made. Now they are trying to figure out if the producer can put all of this corn away in an effort to firm the basis. If the trade is trying to move to the “demand” side of the equation then they do believe the crop can be put away. Adding to this “demand” strategy is the simple fact that US corn is the cheapest source of feed worldwide. What’s with the EU; they are now cutting US corn gluten imports. All this does is aggravating their own feed shortages. Most in the trade were looking for unchanged crop ratings from the USDA on Monday night. The USDA reports the nation’s corn crop GE rating to be 58% (+2%). Of the top producing states I see the following GE ratings; Iowa 71% (+7%), Illinois 72% (-1%), Nebraska 79% (+1%), Minnesota 33% (unch), Indiana 38% (5%) and South Dakota 59% (+1%). The USDA goes on to say that 6% of the nation’s crop has reached maturity. This is in line vs. most norms; last year at this time maturity rates were 6% and the 5-year average is 5%. The Pro-Farmer tour started this week. Early returns show the Ohio crop not very good while the Dakotas’ crop is pretty variable. This year I don’t see any surprises coming from these folks. The technical look still suggests December corn has a major hurdle at the $3.70-$3.75 level. Support is pretty plain; close below $3.38 and this place is going to look pretty ugly. Until we start to see some better demand, I mean actually see it; this place is no better than a trading affair until proven otherwise.

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Wheat Market
Interim support, $6.80-$6.78, is tested Monday and again it holds. The aforementioned interim support level is really turning, developing into a major swing point. If the market ever closes below that level the market will really be advertising that a top may be in place. The trade is still trying to get a handle on EU crop size. There still appears to be a fair amount of potential business around. India is rumored to have paid $9.50 for a 1.0 million T. tender from Russia.
Australia is getting some decent rains while Argentina is still lacking. The latter may get some much needed moisture this coming weekend, but it is still in the “maybe” stage.
Statistics Canada released their latest ideas on Canada’s wheat crop this Thursday at roughly 1.0 million tons below expectations. Most in the trade looked for downward revisions. The latest USDA estimate on Canada wheat production is 21.5 million T. This was down 1.0 million T. from their previous estimate in June.
The flat price’s ability to honor suspected support levels prompted resistance testing of historic highs @ $7.50. Wheat has been a market of extremes; I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
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Soy Complex
Meal leads bean oil -- based on good global demand. Bean oil sags on lower crude oil prices. Soybeans get caught in the middle. What to do, what to do? The trade did not have a solid opinion on what to expect in the crop condition report Monday afternoon. Would the hot and dry conditions in the Mid-South and Delta offset the great conditions of the northern half of the Midwest? The USDA reports the nation’s soybean crop GE rating to be 54% (-2%). Of the top producing states I see the following GE ratings; Iowa 76% (+5%), Illinois 58% (-4%), Minnesota 43% (-2%), Indiana 35% (-5%), and Missouri 30% (-6%). In soybeans it has become a clear case of northern conditions vs. southern conditions. According to this report the poorer areas are starting to take their toll on the nation’s rating as a whole. Once again the question has to asked, “Can the better crop in some of northern states offset the poorer crop elsewhere?” I don’t have an answer to that question but I do know acres are small enough that the US cannot afford a shortfall anywhere. Now we have flooding in many of the northern reaches of the belt, in some of the areas where the crop was supposed to be pretty good. Most realize that soybeans prefer drier conditions vs. wetter conditions. The rain flooded areas are not forecasted to see any let up until this weekend. This weather challenge to the better areas of the Midwest prompted some of this week’s rally. November futures reject the attempted 1 day confirmation of a top and remain range bound between $8.00-900.
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ditropan ha scritto:
scusa dove leggi 850 ? :-?
scusa, non 850, ho fatto confusione, leggevo qua, dove aggiustato con inflazione max assoluto del 1996 oggi sarebbe 9.96

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CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--U.S. wheat futures finished firmer on strong demand but
trimmed gains after climbing to historic highs, with Chicago Board of Trade
December wheat setting a new all-time high in early trading, analysts said.

Chicago Board of Trade September wheat rose 4 cents to settle at $7.22 1/2 a
bushel and set a new 11-year high of $7.41, exceeding its previous contract
high of $7.20. CBOT December wheat ended up 7 1/4 cents at $7.39 and set a new
all-time high of $7.54, exceeding the previous all-time record of $7.50.

The $7.50 all-time high, set in March 1996, was for a nearby contract. CBOT
December wheat is the second-month contract, but the record still stood as the
record all-time high at the CBOT and was seen as an important price target,
analysts said.

Adjusted for inflation, $7.50 in 1996 is equal to $9.96 in 2007.
 

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