Grains : corn, wheat, oats,soybeans, soybean meal&oil

limit up again , dimostrazione di forza assoluta

DJ US Cash Grain Outlook: Big Futures Rally Crushes Wheat Basis

By Gary Wulf

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


CENTRAL CITY, Neb. (Dow Jones)--Basis premiums paid for wheat were in
wholesale retreat across virtually all sectors of the U.S. cash grain market
Wednesday, responding to increased country movement caused by a historic
futures rally.

Basis bids for cash hard red winter/spring wheat dropped 5 cents per bushel
in the export market of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday, while domestic basis
for soft red winter wheat averaged 8 3/4 cents weaker. Merchandisers also
slashed daily spring wheat basis by an average of 4 1/4 cents across the U.S.
interior.

With futures prices surging limit-up, to achieve all-time record highs
Tuesday, one major terminal market in the top HRW-producing state of Kansas
reported net wheat receipts which were nearly 60% larger than a week earlier.
Wheat receipts more than doubled at the bellwether HRS terminal of Minneapolis
on Tuesday as well.

Domestic corn/soybean basis was also weaker Wednesday, with national elevator
bids dropping off by an average of 1 1/4-1 1/2 cents a bushel.

"Lots of basis widening at various terminals," observed Iowa cash grain
dealer Katy Greiner. "It's a very busy time of year. Still lots of old crop
moving, and some combines are starting to run."

Grain sorghum effectively avoided the basis downdraft affecting other
markets, however, with terminals monitored by Dow Jones Newswires raising
nearby premiums by an average of around 3/4 cent.

Wheat futures rallied once again in overnight trading, with most cash
contracts closing 28-30 cents higher, as Egypt purchased another 11 million
bushels of U.S. wheat.

"Wheat buyers seem to be in a panic over available supplies," said Ag
Management Services market consultant Rich Balvanz. "India has said it plans to
stockpile wheat to assure against possible global shortages later next year.
Given this level of buying, little if any wheat will be fed to livestock this
year, except that which cannot be blended into higher-quality supplies for
human consumption."

As such, e-CBOT futures also featured gains of 3-5 cents for soybeans, and
about 2 cents for corn, although December oats were only steady overnight.

National cash price indexes maintained by the MGE currently stand at $8.03
3/4 for soybeans, indicating an average basis level of -88 3/4 cents relative
to September contracts at the CBOT. Domestic cash prices also average $3.13 1/4
for corn (-23 1/2 cents basis September CBOT corn), $6.88 for hard red winter
wheat (-73 1/4 cents basis KCBT December wheat), $7.15 1/2 for soft red winter
wheat (-91 1/2 cents basis CBOT September wheat), and $6.55 1/4 for hard red
spring wheat (-86 1/4 cents basis MGE December wheat). Cash bids currently
average $6.98 3/4 for soft white winter wheat and $7.87 3/4 for durum,
nationwide.

CROP WEATHER


The Joint Ag Weather Facility at USDA said precipitation was largely confined
to the southeastern Plains and northern Delta early Wednesday, although a few
showers had also developed in Montana and the Dakotas, which were delaying the
conclusion of spring wheat harvest.

Hot, dry conditions are advancing winter wheat planting on the southern High
Plains, and corn/soybean harvesting across the Southeast and southern Corn
Belt.

JAWF forecasters said locally heavy rain will continue from Texas eastward to
the Delta on Wednesday, although the threat of severe thunderstorms will shift
into the northern Plains and the upper Midwest later in the week. Elsewhere, a
disturbance lurking near the southern Atlantic Coast has the potential to
become a named tropical storm and turn toward the U.S.
 
questa era uscita ierisera

BRASILE: RACCOLTO RECORD DI GRANAGLIE
(ANSA) - SAN PAOLO, 4 SET - La messe è da record e
quest'anno il Brasile registrerà il maggior raccolto di
granaglie della sua storia. Il granoturco, la soia e il cotone
in grani non sono da meno della canna da zucchero nel boom
dell'agro-business brasiliano. E' stata annunciata oggi una
stimativa superlativa della produzione nazionale pubblicata
dalla Conab (Compagnia Nazionale di Rifornimento) per il
raccolto di granaglie 2006-2007.
Secondo i dati della Conab il raccolto di questa stagione è
stata di 131,4 milioni di tonnellate di granaglie. Il risultato
supera del 6,7 per cento il fino ad ora maggior raccolto della
storia brasiliana: quello del ciclo 2003-2004, con 123,2 milioni
di tonnellate. L'anno scorso il raccolto era stato di 122
milioni di tonnellate.
Il miglioramento tecnologico delle coltivazioni e un'estate
dal clima particolarmente favorevole sono state le due cause
maggiori del record. La soia continua a farla da padrone in
Brasile dove purtroppo le coltivazioni stanno anche invadendo la
foresta amazzonica. La produzione di quest'anno è stata di 58,4
milioni di tonnellate con un aumento rispetto al precedente
raccolto del 6,1 per cento. La crescita maggiore rispetto al
prodotto 2005-2006 è stata registrata comunque dal granoturco,
aumentato addirittura del 20,1 per cento: il mais raccolto è
stato pari a 51,1 milioni di tonnellate. Seguono il riso con
11,3 milioni di tonnellate (-3,5 per cento), il cotone in grani
con 3,9 milioni di tonnellate (crescita record del 43,5 per
cento), i fagioli con 3,3 milioni di tonnellate (riso e fagioli
é il piatto basico del brasiliani) e il grano, coltivato in
inverno, con 2,2 milioni di tonnellate.
I dati del Conab affermano anche che la superficie piantata è
diminuita del 3,6 per cento in tutto il Brasile, da 47,9 milioni
di ettari a 46,2 milioni. Si pensa che questo spazio sia stato
occupato dalle coltivazioni di canna da zucchero, in auge in
Brasile per la produzione record dell'etanolo, carburante
alternativo per le auto fabbricate nel gigante sudamericano.
 
Dopo che ierisera si era chiuso con dic in limit up e 50k :eek: ripeto 50ooo lotti in acquisto ( dei quali evidentemente il 90% erano fakes) ci si aspettava un terzo replay stamattina invece son venuti a più miti consigli
I fatti di ieri: OI in salita , quindi oltre a ricoperture ci son stati acquisti freschi in maggior quantità ; spread sul raccolto nuovo N-Z8 è andato in contango a -10 , segno che ci si aspetta buona messa


Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 9/6/2007

December wheat traded 15 1/4 lower late in the overnight session to 820 1/4 after posting a high at 849. Deliveries came in at 250 contracts.

December wheat has jumped more than $2.00/bushel since early August, but open interest is down 68,296 contracts from the early August peak. Expectations for a large Southern Hemisphere crop and for a large world crop for the coming year has kept new crop July wheat at a significant discount to old crop months with the Dec/July spread moving to a $2.09 premium December this week from an 8 cent premium in early June. Traders expected an Australia crop harvest late this year at near 26 million tonnes, but poor weather in August slashed production estimates to under 19 million tonnes, and the Western Australia Ag minister yesterday indicated that production could be 2 million tonnes lower than even the most pessimistic forecasts. Active demand from Egypt, India, Iraq, Morocco and others recently booking large quantities of wheat has helped support the recent surge higher. Long liquidation selling helped pressure the market late yesterday and again overnight with ideas that the 886 high for September futures will be tough to surpass added to the negative technical tone. Japan bought 175,000 tonnes of wheat at their weekly tender with 110,000 of the total coming from the US.

While traders expected that Tuesday's rally might begin to price out some demand, active new buying from South Korea, Taiwan, Egypt and Iraq helped drive the market sharply higher again yesterday. With record high freight rates and record high prices, buyers remained active this week, including India, and this news has been the catalyst for the surge higher. Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Paris wheat futures all posted new all-time highs again yesterday, with nearby futures surging to as high as 886. Milling wheat futures moved to a record high 300 euros/tonne, which equates to $11.09 per bushel. In Egypt's tender, they bought 470,000 tonnes of wheat with 190,000 of the total soft red winter from the US, 110,000 tonnes of US hard red winter and 170,000 tonnes from Russia. In addition, the USDA confirmed a sale of 200,000 tonnes of US hard red winter wheat to Iraq. Concerns for a lack of rain in some areas of Australia and fears that global supply will continue to tighten added to the bullish tone. Jordon bought 50,000 tonnes from Syria overnight as well. There were 244 deliveries against the September wheat overnight. Taiwan bought 46,000 tonnes of US wheat and South Korea bought 22,000 tonnes of US wheat overnight.

Argentina could get some badly needed rain this weekend or early next week while Australia looks mostly dry over a large portion of their wheat producing areas for the next week or so. Basis was steady at the Gulf yesterday despite the second day of limit up futures. From the extreme overbought condition and low open interest, the market looks vulnerable to a technical correction as the trade realizes that this week's surge may help slow import demand.
 
visto che in limit dwn neanche per il kaiser e minaccia di ripartire , zac provo long su dic 825 stop in canna sui minimi
 
ieri catturato qualche punticino , il greed mi ha impedito di prendere i possibili 10 cent
intanto si alza il grido: piove , grano ladro! :D

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 9/7/2007

December wheat traded 3 1/4 cents lower late in the overnight session. Deliveries came in at 184 contracts.

Some forecasters are calling for better rain chances for Australia next week, and hope for rain which might ease crop concerns and raise production forecasts helped spark the selling yesterday and more selling overnight. French milling wheat futures slipped 5.6% overnight to 258 euros per tonne and has now slipped 14% off of this week's highs. Rain is also in the forecast for Argentina crop areas, which could ease crop concerns there as well. Import demand has remained very active this week despite record high pricing. Algeria, Morocco and Iraq are now active following large purchases from Egypt and India earlier this week. Traders believe Australia wheat production will be near 16-18 million tonnes as compared with forecasts as recently as July for 26 million tonnes. Droughts in 2002/2003 and again last year caused production to slip to 10.0 and 9.8 million tonnes respectively. Increased chances of rain in the 1 and 2 week forecast models have added plenty of uncertainty to the low production forecasts. Iraq bought 200,000 tonnes of US wheat overnight.

Weakness in Europe and some talk of scattered rains in parts of Australia to help ease drought stress helped spark a long liquidation sell-off in wheat yesterday after posting new highs in the previous night's session. The new contract (and all-time) high and lower close could attract some short term technical selling pressure. Talk of the extremely overbought technical condition and ideas that this week's surge in prices will help to slow import demand helped spark long liquidation selling and lower trade early in the session. News of new buying from Algeria and still active buying from Japan at their weekly tender helped support the bounce to near unchanged on the day into the mid-session. Algeria has bought between 500,000 to 700,000 tonnes of milling wheat (thought to be mostly US) in the last few sessions according to cash dealers in Europe. Japan bought 175,000 tonnes of wheat at their weekly tender with 110,000 of the total coming from the US. In addition, news that Morocco bought 125,000 tonnes of US hard red wheat helped the market recover from the early lows. A strong commercial stopper took all of the 250 deliveries against the September contract into their house account this morning, which was seen as a positive development.

Argentina could get some badly needed rain this weekend or early next week, while Australia looks to receive scattered rains of up to 1/2 inch in the next week, but coverage at this point does not look widespread. Basis was firm due to strong demand with 125,000 tonnes sold to Morocco, 110,000 tonnes to Japan and a large 500,000-700,000 tonne Algeria purchase of which traders believe a bulk will come from the US. For the weekly export sales report, released before the opening, traders are looking for wheat sales near 800,000-1.2 million tonnes as compared with 1.23 million last week. There is some rain in the Australia forecast for next week, but there is a huge difference between scattered rains and drought-busting rains. Look for big volatility Monday morning as the Australia forecast becomes clearer.
 
uscito dallo short corn dic con 5 cent da scalare al solito WC che a forza di colpi qui e là son riuscito a portare su mar a 430 :rolleyes:
aperto nuovamente long su W dic a 822 , vale la regola buy the dip , stop però strettissimo a 820
 
tacci loro :D rush finale, vendo il mio long Z7 su limit up :V almeno da un lato godo
sul resto stanno schiacciando il luglio08 tant'è che gli spread H-k vs N son in ebollizione
 
niente limitup ,ridato in close a 843 , tolte le commissioni mi scalo 20 cent puliti al WC cui salgo il pdc a 450, hai voglia a fare acrobazie per stargli dietro nau 478 sul mar :wall:
lo short più sicuro rimane quello dal may in poi , infatti son quelli che son rimasti indietro nella corsa dell'ora finale
 

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