io ho indossato le mutande di ferro
come già detto più volte PROIBITO affrontare questa bestia imbizzarrita senza l'adeguata capitalizzazione , anche perchè gli stop se possono tamponare nell'intraday su elettronico sono superabili in over con ste continue minacce di limit up e prossimi dwn
nell'articolo sotto si parla di short covering , in realtà ieri si è scambiato poco e mentre l'OI su dic è diminuito di circa 1k lotti sulle altre scadenze e specie sul luglio08 e perciò nuovo raccolto c'è stato un aumento quasi equivalente
per il resto manca poco che scatti la corsa all'accapparramento di scorte quasi che fossimo alla vigilia della terza guerra mondiale
Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 9/5/2007
December wheat traded 30 cents higher in the overnight trading session for the second day in a row. Deliveries came in at 244 contracts.
Fears that the Australia crop will be much smaller than expected just a few weeks ago and strong demand from Egypt and India this week helped drive the market limit-up overnight for the second day in a row. The lack of new selling interest has added to the accelerating uptrend, and while the market is overbought basis traditional technical indicators, the steep drop in open interest continues to point to short covering, not new speculative buying, as the reason for the strong gains. New all-time record high prices in Europe and the US overnight may have been sparked by reports that a large mass of land in Australia was hit with searing winds which downgraded the crop. In late July, there were still forecasts for 26 million tonnes in production, but the dry August and expectations for only light showers with low coverage for the next week has many traders lowering their crop production estimates to the 18.0-19.5 million tonne range. Active demand despite high prices adds to the bullish tone. Egypt tendered to buy 55,000-60,000 tonnes of wheat for Oct/Nov shipment after the close. South Korea bought 22,000 tonnes of US wheat overnight and Taiwan bought 46,000 tonnes of US wheat. Malaysia and Japan buying is also expected this week.
All-time highs at the Paris exchange for milling wheat and continued concerns with tightening world supply helped spark new buying, and lack of interested sellers helped drive the market sharply higher and limit-bid into the mid-session. Traders expected India to buy only a portion of the 530,000 tonnes of wheat offered at the tender last week, but India bought 795,000 tonnes of wheat over the weekend. September wheat closed 40 cents higher at 807 and managed a new all-time high of 811 1/4 for nearby futures. Open interest is down to the lowest level since May 29th, as short-covering is also helping to fuel the bull trend. Weekly export inspections came in at 33.24 million bushels, which was within trade expectations. Cumulative shipments for the 2007/2008 season have reached 28.3% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 23.8% as the 5-year average for this time of the year. November futures in Paris posted a high of 282 euros per tonne. This comes out at $10.43 per bushel. Malaysia buyers are looking to book two or three cargoes of US or Canadian wheat before the Australia wheat harvest starts in October, and this news added to the bullish tone. Deliveries against the September contract totaled 231 contracts this morning. Dry weather in some of the key wheat producing areas of Australia is still a concern.
Argentina could get some badly needed rain this weekend or early next week. Basis was steady yesterday amid firm barge rates and despite limit-up moves in the futures. Egypt tendered to buy 55,000-60,000 tonnes optional origin wheat and India announced it would purchase 795,000 tonnes, which was up from previous expectations of 300,000-530,000. The market's "job" is to move to a high enough level to ensure enough planted area to see a production surplus next year and to discourage short term demand. The weekly spring wheat harvest report showed 96% complete compared to 96% last year. More demand at high price to keep sellers on sidelines. Australia weather is important.
