Grains : corn, wheat, oats,soybeans, soybean meal&oil

[ditropan]

Aggiornamento meteo, è iniziata la pioggia e le previsoni sulla quantità che dovrebbe cadere da quì a domenica sono migliorate.

Se la notizia fà il suo dovere oggi qualche prima indicazione di ciò che domani farà il wheat la dovremmo cogliere dal frumento quotato al liffe di Londra.

 

[gipa69]

wheat quotato al matif

 

[Inshar]

cioè, invece di crollare, sale ancora?
e al liffe di londra che ha fatto oggi? non lo trovo...

 

[Inshar]

tanto nella notte è risalito a 803
possibile, 30 punti solo nella notte? dopo 30 punti di discesa di venerdì?
a me pare una follia

 

[Fleursdumal]

well il ponte lungo ha portato consiglio vedo cmq a leggere i primi commenti non hanno scontato le possibili piogge in Australia , se ne sono completamente impippati preferendo seguire parigi e londra
dic e mar in limit up , oggi proverò a giostrare qualcosa su N e sui calendar spread H-N e K-N

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 9/4/2007

December wheat traded 30 cents higher in the overnight trading session. Deliveries came in at 231 contracts.

European wheat prices surged to a new all-time high overnight on rising concerns for higher bread prices as commercial buyers continue to support the market. November futures in Paris posted a high of 276.5 euros per tonne. This comes out at $10.21 per bushel. Tightening world ending stocks and some increased fears that the new crops in the southern hemisphere are finding difficult growing conditions has helped spark the surge higher. India decided to buy 795,000 tonnes of wheat in order to build up wheat stocks and control local inflation, which was 50% more than the initial amount offered at last month's import tender. The average weighted price was $389.45 per tonne and the news sparked sharply higher trade. The reversal from an all-time high on Friday in Chicago was seen as a bearish short term factor, but the reversal was not confirmed with a weekly reversal and the volume of trade was seen as low. Prior to the lower close on Friday, December wheat closed higher in 9 of 10 trading sessions, which was seen as a sign of an overbought technical condition, but the structure of the market basis Commitment of Traders reports continues to show a lack of an overbought condition. South Korea millers seek 22,000 tonnes of US wheat, and Japan is expected to book 175,000 tonnes of wheat at their weekly tender. Russia's main grain lobby will meet on September 13th to discuss the possibility of introducing export limits and the selling of grain from state intervention stocks in order to cap rising bread prices within Russia.

A new all time high followed by a weak close leaves some concern for a top, but low volume trade and a sharply higher close for the week had the trade seeing Friday's action as just profit taking selling ahead of the long weekend. The sweeping reversal after a contract high for July wheat might have attracted more attention from technical traders. New all-time highs in Europe and US futures markets overnight and continued concerns with tightening world stocks helped spark the early strength, but a lack of new buying interest on the opening above $8.00 sparked a sharp sell-off in the mid-session. With a 25-year low in world ending stocks in the last world USDA supply/demand report and expectations that production will be revised lower for Europe, Australia, Argentina and maybe Canada for the upcoming report, the market has found a solid foundation. In addition, US weekly export sales have exceeded 1 million tonnes for the third week in a row as compared with 316,600 tonnes necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. Sales have averaged 1.219 million tonnes over the past five weeks. South Korea bought 47,700 tonnes of US wheat overnight. Russia's main grain lobby will meet on September 13th to discuss the possibility of introducing export limits and the selling of grain from state intervention stocks in order to cap rising bread prices within Russia.

Some sections of Australia's wheat belt have a chance for light to moderate rain over the next 5 days, but more significant rainfall is needed. Argentina also needs rain, but only the long range charts indicate a chance for significant amounts. Basis bids were steady on Friday, with strong export demand underpinning the market. South Korea is tendering for 22,000 tonnes US wheat. The Commitment of Traders report with options showed the market in a classic bullish setup with non-commercial traders (funds) net long and non-reportable traders net short 34,459 contracts. Trend-following funds increased their net long position by 6,340 contracts to a net long of just 8,128 contracts as of August 28th and the buying trend is supportive. The market is far from an overbought reading. The market's "job" is to move to a high enough level to ensure enough planted are to see a production surplus next year. Futures are still not showing classic overbought readings for a top, except for the daily reversal on Friday, which will be negated on a move over Friday's high. A lack of volume on Friday would suggest the highs will not hold as well.

 

[Fleursdumal]

Sep 4, 2007

All-Time Highs…and more All-Time Highs

What more can one say to describe the price action but ‘new, all-time highs’? As we witnessed this historic event in the wheat complex last week and the surge to new highs over the weekend, there is still plenty of reason to think that these highs won’t be the last ones we see on this run.

This has been an amazingly orderly rally, with gaps that usually hold their gains, and when they don’t, the reversals are minor and with little fanfare. We don’t have the volatility on high volume that you’d normally see at extreme prices, or the aggressive selling of those who would believe that the high is in. We’ve seen corrections, but the breaks have been well bought and record high prices have not deterred the bull.

India’s purchase over the long weekend of 795,000 MMT of wheat was 50% higher than what was originally offered with the average price around $389/MMT. One can only imagine how painful that must be, considering that last May they passed up offers for only $296/MMT. These sales won’t be from the US, but the drawdown on world stocks will certainly be felt here with the night session limit up in both Chicago and Kansas City.

The bull is alive and well. These price levels are clearly not rationing supply, something few would argue needs to happen – and soon. US export sales also continue to defy the rationing definition as well, with sales roughly double that of last year.

With Russia tossing around the idea of limiting exports because domestic bread prices are too high, the US could find itself the only export game in town for awhile. Obviously, our supplies are quickly dropping, too, which means world prices would certainly move higher still.

This wheat market transitioned from a Northern Hemisphere supply scare to a demand driven market fairly smoothly, all the while with prices continually pushing higher. Now, the market is faced with another supply scare with the Australian crop situation, which looks bleaker by the day. They desperately need rain but haven’t had the soaking rains that would begin to break this drought cycle.

Argentina is also dry in key wheat areas, but rains are forecast for next week and, if they materialize, would get that crop off to a good start. They are just beginning their growing season, so they’ve got more time for rains to help their crop along.

With wheat prices soaring to new highs because of demand and another supply scare, it’s unlikely that the wheat market will break significantly until the Southern Hemisphere’s crop is well on its way to the bin. So while this wheat complex will get plenty of price action and probably plenty of reversals, the fundamentals will stay strong, at least for old crop wheat, until the market has a better idea of the Southern Hemisphere’s crop.

The market is also keenly aware of the certain increase in wheat acres worldwide. New crop prices for ’08 and ’09 were the first to feel the heat on Friday, and will likely be the least to move higher if we do indeed get more rallies. Those would be the first markets one would look to sell, as they shouldn’t get as caught up in the volatility as the ’07 crop.

Monday’s night session negated Friday’s downward reversals. This is not just a technically driven market with speculators the only buyers; the fundamentals justify prices at these levels. This market is and will continue to inflict serious pain on those who remain short, particularly in old crop wheat. Obviously, all bull markets come to an end at some point, but this market has not yet given any signs of that.

 

[Inshar]

avete notato che è piantato suglio 805.4 e non si muove dall'apertura?

 

[Fleursdumal]

ci credo bloccato con quasi 10k in acquisto sul limit up , minaccia di starci tutta la seduta , cosa credo che non accade da lustri
il bello è che è andato in limit up anche maggio e sono vicini anche luglio e dic 08
bisognerebbe andare a vedere sulle opzioni che prezzi stanno facendo i futures sintetici che sicuramente si stanno costruendo

 

[Inshar]

ci credo bloccato con quasi 10k in acquisto sul limit up , minaccia di starci tutta la seduta , cosa credo che non accade da lustri
il bello è che è andato in limit up anche maggio e sono vicini anche luglio e dic 08
bisognerebbe andare a vedere sulle opzioni che prezzi stanno facendo i futures sintetici che sicuramente si stanno costruendo

ma secondo te cosa potrebbe preludere? una salita come l'ultima (da 750 a 781 mi sembra) oppure il fatto che sia cos' immobile denota anche un'incapacità a salire oltre?

 

[quicksilver]

Inshar ma come farebbe a salire oltre il limit up? se è in limit up