Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
pabletto ha scritto:
il vecio alpin è una faina del trading, ne esce sempre alla grande
Grains : corn, wheat, oats,soybeans, soybean meal&oil
- Creatore Discussione Fleursdumal
- Data di Inizio
il vecio alpin è una faina del trading, ne esce sempre alla grande
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
un pò di sell on news
queste le notizie dall'EU
PREZZI: CONTRO AUMENTI UE PRODURRA' PIU' GRANO E LATTE/ANSA
(Dell inviata Patrizia Lenzarini) (ANSA) OPORTO
(PORTOGALLO), 18 SET I ministri dell agricoltura europei si
sono dati una nuova parola d ordine: dimostrare che la politica
agricola comune (Pac) non e superata ma e in grado di dare
risposte concrete alle domande della societa ed in particolare
alle difficolta legate all aumento dei prezzi di frumento e
latte. Cosi a Oporto, a nord del Portogallo, i ministri
dell agricoltura europei riuniti in consiglio informale per
l Italia Paolo De Castro hanno detto di voler contrastare
l aumento dei prezzi e dimostrare ha spiegato De Castro
all Ansa - che "la Pac non e solo rivolta agli agricoltori ma
a tutti i cittadini".
I 27 ministri si preparano infatti a dare il via libera, in
occasione del consiglio in programma mercoledi 26 settembre,
alla proposta della commissaria europea all agricoltura Mariann
Fischer Boel di autorizzare gli agricoltori a produrre sulle
terre che fino ad oggi dovevano lasciare improduttive:
globalmente 3,8 milioni di ettari. In Italia, in particolare,
gli agricoltori potranno seminare circa 200.000 ettari in piu
per poter calmierare i prezzi del frumento dal prossimo
raccolto. Una decisione che l'Italia ha chiesto da luglio.
A Oporto si e parlato molto anche di latte. Ai partner Ue De
Castro ha chiesto "un aumento della produzione di latte il piu
presto possibile indipendentemente dalla revisione del sistema
delle quote latte che verra affrontato dall Ue a partire dal
20 novembre. Il 26 novembre quindi, numerosi paesi solleveranno
la questione dell aumento gia dalla prossima campagna della
produzione di latte senza anticipare il dibattito sulla riforma
del settore lattiero. Un'idea condivisa - ha precisato De Castro
- anche dal ministro francese, Michel Barnier che e andato ad
incontrarlo.
Insomma per l'Italia l Ue ha l'occasione di dare un segnale
chiaro della sua volonta di aumentare la produzione europea per
rispondere alla tensione sui mercati internazionali con una
decisione operativa per i cereali e un segnale politico forte
per il latte. Già Olanda chiede un aumento del 2-3% delle quote
2008-2009 mentre Polonia chiederebbe fino al 4%.
La riunione di Oporto e stato pero anche e soprattutto
l occasione di parlare del futuro della Pac e del suo
finanziamento futuro. Ai partner europei De Castro ha
sottolineato con forza due elementi di fondo. In primo luogo
"lo stretto rapporto esistente fra lo sviluppo della filiera
agroalimentare e i prodotti al territorio. Un legame che non e
solo sinonimo di qualita ma anche di carattere distintivo
vendibile al mercato . In secondo luogo, ma non ultimo,
l importanza dello sviluppo del mondo rurale, quindi dal
trasferimento di risorse provenienti dai finanziamenti ai
mercati (la cosiddetta modulazione). Tuttavia, ha messo in
guardia: "Se noi tagliamo quei finanziamenti per trasferirli al
mondo rurale abbiamo bisogno di risorse e in questo contesto pur
respingendo con forza l idea di una rinazionalizzazione della
Pac ha suggerito l ipotesi del cofinanziamento a condizione che
sia limitato e obbligatorio per tutti gli stati". Al momento
quello che e certo e che l Europa, e l Italia in particolare,
vogliono "uno sviluppo rurale mirato non solo alle aziende
agricole ma alla qualita , alla tipicita alla sicurezza
alimentare".
queste le notizie dall'EU
PREZZI: CONTRO AUMENTI UE PRODURRA' PIU' GRANO E LATTE/ANSA
(Dell inviata Patrizia Lenzarini) (ANSA) OPORTO
(PORTOGALLO), 18 SET I ministri dell agricoltura europei si
sono dati una nuova parola d ordine: dimostrare che la politica
agricola comune (Pac) non e superata ma e in grado di dare
risposte concrete alle domande della societa ed in particolare
alle difficolta legate all aumento dei prezzi di frumento e
latte. Cosi a Oporto, a nord del Portogallo, i ministri
dell agricoltura europei riuniti in consiglio informale per
l Italia Paolo De Castro hanno detto di voler contrastare
l aumento dei prezzi e dimostrare ha spiegato De Castro
all Ansa - che "la Pac non e solo rivolta agli agricoltori ma
a tutti i cittadini".
I 27 ministri si preparano infatti a dare il via libera, in
occasione del consiglio in programma mercoledi 26 settembre,
alla proposta della commissaria europea all agricoltura Mariann
Fischer Boel di autorizzare gli agricoltori a produrre sulle
terre che fino ad oggi dovevano lasciare improduttive:
globalmente 3,8 milioni di ettari. In Italia, in particolare,
gli agricoltori potranno seminare circa 200.000 ettari in piu
per poter calmierare i prezzi del frumento dal prossimo
raccolto. Una decisione che l'Italia ha chiesto da luglio.
A Oporto si e parlato molto anche di latte. Ai partner Ue De
Castro ha chiesto "un aumento della produzione di latte il piu
presto possibile indipendentemente dalla revisione del sistema
delle quote latte che verra affrontato dall Ue a partire dal
20 novembre. Il 26 novembre quindi, numerosi paesi solleveranno
la questione dell aumento gia dalla prossima campagna della
produzione di latte senza anticipare il dibattito sulla riforma
del settore lattiero. Un'idea condivisa - ha precisato De Castro
- anche dal ministro francese, Michel Barnier che e andato ad
incontrarlo.
Insomma per l'Italia l Ue ha l'occasione di dare un segnale
chiaro della sua volonta di aumentare la produzione europea per
rispondere alla tensione sui mercati internazionali con una
decisione operativa per i cereali e un segnale politico forte
per il latte. Già Olanda chiede un aumento del 2-3% delle quote
2008-2009 mentre Polonia chiederebbe fino al 4%.
La riunione di Oporto e stato pero anche e soprattutto
l occasione di parlare del futuro della Pac e del suo
finanziamento futuro. Ai partner europei De Castro ha
sottolineato con forza due elementi di fondo. In primo luogo
"lo stretto rapporto esistente fra lo sviluppo della filiera
agroalimentare e i prodotti al territorio. Un legame che non e
solo sinonimo di qualita ma anche di carattere distintivo
vendibile al mercato . In secondo luogo, ma non ultimo,
l importanza dello sviluppo del mondo rurale, quindi dal
trasferimento di risorse provenienti dai finanziamenti ai
mercati (la cosiddetta modulazione). Tuttavia, ha messo in
guardia: "Se noi tagliamo quei finanziamenti per trasferirli al
mondo rurale abbiamo bisogno di risorse e in questo contesto pur
respingendo con forza l idea di una rinazionalizzazione della
Pac ha suggerito l ipotesi del cofinanziamento a condizione che
sia limitato e obbligatorio per tutti gli stati". Al momento
quello che e certo e che l Europa, e l Italia in particolare,
vogliono "uno sviluppo rurale mirato non solo alle aziende
agricole ma alla qualita , alla tipicita alla sicurezza
alimentare".
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
forse forse il vento sta iniziando a girare 
OI in aumento con prezzi quasi fermi e sell profit e notizie di funds che stanno vendendo short
Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 9/19/2007
December wheat traded 13 3/4 cents lower in the overnight session.
A lack of bullish reaction to the Australia crop news yesterday and a lack of a bullish reaction overnight on the news of a sharply lower dollar and surging metal and energy prices could spark some long liquidation selling in wheat early today. Funds were noted sellers of near 2,000 contracts yesterday after the early rally failed to pierce key resistance levels. While the Australia weather outlook remains somewhat threatening, talk that Kansas plantings can resume after the rains early this week helped spark some selling yesterday as well. Talk of 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches of rain with good coverage in Kansas this week sparked talk of improved planting prospects. As of Sunday, only 7% of the crop was planted in Kansas as compared with 13% normal for this time of the year.
The market saw increased selling pressure from profit taking yesterday after the firm opening, as traders dismissed the Australian crop estimate as "old news" and focused on the overbought technical condition of the market. The Australia Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics pegged wheat production at 15.5 million tonnes. This compared with trade expectations mostly near 17-18 million with some as low as 15 million and 22.5 million as their previous forecast. The USDA forecast last week was 21 million. Talk of a relatively dry trend for the region which could cause a further reduction in supply helped support the market on the early setback. With world ending stocks already pegged at just 112 million tonnes, the lowest since 1977, the further tightening of world supply is seen as bullish force for old crop wheat futures. The weekly winter wheat planting report showed 14% complete compared to 17% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 18%. Better than expected rain coverage in Kansas helped pressure KC wheat relative to Chicago. The better moisture is expected to boost planting progress in Kansas over the next week. Pakistan was expected to issue a tender to buy 250,000-500,000 tonnes of milling wheat in the next day or two. South Korea bought 47,700 tonnes of US wheat Monday night. With the drought problems in Australia, traders believe that Indonesia imports from the US may increase by 10% this year after the country imported 731,300 tonnes from the US for the 2006/2007 season.
Decent rainfall across the growing regions of Argentina over the past week has boosted crop conditions and yield expectations there. Mostly dry conditions were seen in Australia over the last 24 hours, and it is expected to stay that way into the next week with only intermittent scattered showers in the forecast. The dry pattern is expected to continue, and more damage is expected as the crop enters the critical heading stage. Hard and soft wheat basis at the Gulf were steady yesterday due to strong demand. In a Reuter's interview with India industry officials, there was a sense that there is no rush to import more wheat and that the country hopes to have near 5.3 million tonnes of wheat stocks as of April 1st ahead of their harvest. The tightening world supply should continue to hold the trend up until the winter wheat crop is planted or Australia weather turns normal. Better Kansas weather yesterday helped pressure.
OI in aumento con prezzi quasi fermi e sell profit e notizie di funds che stanno vendendo shortPre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 9/19/2007
December wheat traded 13 3/4 cents lower in the overnight session.
A lack of bullish reaction to the Australia crop news yesterday and a lack of a bullish reaction overnight on the news of a sharply lower dollar and surging metal and energy prices could spark some long liquidation selling in wheat early today. Funds were noted sellers of near 2,000 contracts yesterday after the early rally failed to pierce key resistance levels. While the Australia weather outlook remains somewhat threatening, talk that Kansas plantings can resume after the rains early this week helped spark some selling yesterday as well. Talk of 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches of rain with good coverage in Kansas this week sparked talk of improved planting prospects. As of Sunday, only 7% of the crop was planted in Kansas as compared with 13% normal for this time of the year.
The market saw increased selling pressure from profit taking yesterday after the firm opening, as traders dismissed the Australian crop estimate as "old news" and focused on the overbought technical condition of the market. The Australia Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics pegged wheat production at 15.5 million tonnes. This compared with trade expectations mostly near 17-18 million with some as low as 15 million and 22.5 million as their previous forecast. The USDA forecast last week was 21 million. Talk of a relatively dry trend for the region which could cause a further reduction in supply helped support the market on the early setback. With world ending stocks already pegged at just 112 million tonnes, the lowest since 1977, the further tightening of world supply is seen as bullish force for old crop wheat futures. The weekly winter wheat planting report showed 14% complete compared to 17% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 18%. Better than expected rain coverage in Kansas helped pressure KC wheat relative to Chicago. The better moisture is expected to boost planting progress in Kansas over the next week. Pakistan was expected to issue a tender to buy 250,000-500,000 tonnes of milling wheat in the next day or two. South Korea bought 47,700 tonnes of US wheat Monday night. With the drought problems in Australia, traders believe that Indonesia imports from the US may increase by 10% this year after the country imported 731,300 tonnes from the US for the 2006/2007 season.
Decent rainfall across the growing regions of Argentina over the past week has boosted crop conditions and yield expectations there. Mostly dry conditions were seen in Australia over the last 24 hours, and it is expected to stay that way into the next week with only intermittent scattered showers in the forecast. The dry pattern is expected to continue, and more damage is expected as the crop enters the critical heading stage. Hard and soft wheat basis at the Gulf were steady yesterday due to strong demand. In a Reuter's interview with India industry officials, there was a sense that there is no rush to import more wheat and that the country hopes to have near 5.3 million tonnes of wheat stocks as of April 1st ahead of their harvest. The tightening world supply should continue to hold the trend up until the winter wheat crop is planted or Australia weather turns normal. Better Kansas weather yesterday helped pressure.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
PREZZI: GRANO; ITALMOPA, RIPRISTINARE LE SCORTE STRATEGICHE
(ANSA) - ROMA, 19 SET - "Chiediamo che vengano ripristinate
le scorte strategiche di grano, così da assicurare sia a breve
che a medio lungo termine un maggior equilibrio e una maggiore
fluidità del mercato, in particolare per quello destinato
all'alimentazione umana". Questa una delle ricette suggerite
oggi dal presidente di Italmopa, Ivano Vacondio, per far fronte
alla carenza di frumento necessario all'industria molitoria
italiana.
Al momento, ha spiegato Vacondio, "i magazzini sono vuoti,
come mai non era accaduto negli ultimi 30 anni. Non ci siamo
accorti di questa fenomeno perché il nostro grano è stato
utilizzato in gran parte per calmierare la domanda". Ma il
problema, ha aggiunto, è più generale, "non a caso a livello
mondiale le scorte corrispondono a circa 2 mesi di consumo". Ma
anche nell'Ue, ha ricordato, "le scorte private, come ci fa
sapere l'International Grains Council (organismo indipendente),
ammontano a meno di 10 milioni di tonnellate, quindi largamente
insufficienti rispetto ad un consumo annuo compreso tra 120 e
130 milioni di tonnellate, di cui 55 destinate all'alimentazione
umana".
Ma la ricetta per uscire dall'emergenza, ha osservato ancora
il leader dei molitori di Viale dell'Astronomia, dovrebbe
contemplare anche uno stop deciso al fenomeno della 'ritenzione'
del grano, "che ha dato vita ad atteggiamenti attendisti e
speculativi da parte dei detentori di scorte"; e la contestuale
abolizione dei contingenti comunitari applicabili alle
importazioni di grano tenero proveniente da Paesi terzi. Da
ultimo, secondo Vacondio sarebbe il caso "di dire basta alle
inutili polemiche tra i diversi interlocutori della filiera, che
danneggiano soltanto l'intero comparto agroalimentare
italiano".
(ANSA) - ROMA, 19 SET - "Chiediamo che vengano ripristinate
le scorte strategiche di grano, così da assicurare sia a breve
che a medio lungo termine un maggior equilibrio e una maggiore
fluidità del mercato, in particolare per quello destinato
all'alimentazione umana". Questa una delle ricette suggerite
oggi dal presidente di Italmopa, Ivano Vacondio, per far fronte
alla carenza di frumento necessario all'industria molitoria
italiana.
Al momento, ha spiegato Vacondio, "i magazzini sono vuoti,
come mai non era accaduto negli ultimi 30 anni. Non ci siamo
accorti di questa fenomeno perché il nostro grano è stato
utilizzato in gran parte per calmierare la domanda". Ma il
problema, ha aggiunto, è più generale, "non a caso a livello
mondiale le scorte corrispondono a circa 2 mesi di consumo". Ma
anche nell'Ue, ha ricordato, "le scorte private, come ci fa
sapere l'International Grains Council (organismo indipendente),
ammontano a meno di 10 milioni di tonnellate, quindi largamente
insufficienti rispetto ad un consumo annuo compreso tra 120 e
130 milioni di tonnellate, di cui 55 destinate all'alimentazione
umana".
Ma la ricetta per uscire dall'emergenza, ha osservato ancora
il leader dei molitori di Viale dell'Astronomia, dovrebbe
contemplare anche uno stop deciso al fenomeno della 'ritenzione'
del grano, "che ha dato vita ad atteggiamenti attendisti e
speculativi da parte dei detentori di scorte"; e la contestuale
abolizione dei contingenti comunitari applicabili alle
importazioni di grano tenero proveniente da Paesi terzi. Da
ultimo, secondo Vacondio sarebbe il caso "di dire basta alle
inutili polemiche tra i diversi interlocutori della filiera, che
danneggiano soltanto l'intero comparto agroalimentare
italiano".
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
l'OI sul wheat continua ad aumentare :smile:
oggi lo tengono sù per i capelli la soia e il corn plus $ debole , petrolio e intero paniere CRB forte
stupendo il commento di gartner della spectrum che dice che questo toro deve essere foraggiato ogni giorno altrimenti sò q@zzi ( traduzione con licenza poetica
)
JUS Wheat Review: Sinks On Profit-Taking, Lack Of Bullish News
By Tom Polansek
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--U.S. wheat futures sank Wednesday, with contracts at all
three exchanges briefly touching limit down on profit-taking and a lack of
bullish news, traders said.
Chicago Board of Trade December wheat tumbled 24 cents to $8.45. Kansas City
Board of Trade December wheat closed down 20 1/4 cents at $8.28 1/2, and
Minneapolis Grain Exchange December wheat fell 17 1/2 cents to $7.98 1/4.
CBOT December wheat hit limit down, or 30 cents lower, in early activity as
traders extended losses from Tuesday. The bulls in the wheat market need to be
fed every day, and the overnight offered few fresh, supportive developments to
put on their plates, traders said.
Commodity funds sold an estimated 5,000 contracts at the CBOT. In pit trades,
FC Stone bought 1,000 December, while Citigroup sold 600 December and Fimat
sold 400 December.
There are some bearish ideas that demand is drying up for the near term, an
analyst said. End users need to make some unexpected purchases for prices to
climb higher, he said.
India, for one, reaffirmed it's satisfied with its stocks for the time being
and did not plan on issuing any tenders in the near future. India gave the same
message earlier this month, although the markets still saw the situation as
bearish, traders said.
"You have to feed this bull every day," said Louise Gartner, analyst with
Spectrum Commodities. "If everybody gets their demand satisfied up front...then
you're done (with export sales) for a while."
It also seems as though the market is comfortable with the Australian Bureau
of Agricultural & Resource Economics' crop estimate of 15.5 million tons,
traders said. ABARE on Tuesday lowered its forecast 31% from June due to severe
dryness.
Prices slumped Tuesday despite the cut, which bulls saw as "disappointing,"
traders said. Tuesday's setback showed panic buying had subsided, an analyst
said.
Wheat futures climbed to all-time highs last week, and the recent weakness
indicates prices may have reached a top, an analyst said.
"I think the traders are trying to confirm a top," Gartner said. "There are
definitely a group of traders who think the high is in and are willing to step
up and sell it."
However, it's likely "the market is not going to be ready to roll over until
we have the final results from Australia, or it's obvious what those
(production) numbers might be," Gartner said.
It appears as though widespread rain will drop 0.20-0.33 inch of moisture on
western Australia from Sunday into Monday, according to T-Storm Weather.
However, the sprinkles will be far less than needed to ease dry conditions, the
weather firm said in a forecast.
"Australia's major wheat areas have only scattered light showers through the
next ten days," DTN Meteorlogix said in its forecast. "Crop losses will
increase as the crop enters the heading stage of development during the next
few weeks."
By contrast, Argentina's central grain belt has received beneficial rains
recently. Although the belt was mostly dry Tuesday, soil moisture has increased
significantly across the main growing areas of during the past week,
Meteorlogix said.
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture will release weekly export
sales data. For the week ended Sept. 13, analysts expect sales to total 600,000
to 1.5 million tons.
Kansas City Board of Trade
Fresh talk about India holding off on any new exports triggered early
weakness at the KCBT, a floor trader said. The market seized on new comments
about India's plans as there wasn't anything else to grab traders' attention,
he said.
Favorable weather should prompt producers in the U.S. central and southern
Plains to speed up wheat seeding through the weekend and next week, T-Storm
Weather said in a forecast. The firm predicted mainly dry and unseasonably warm
weather in the region for the next several days.
Winds will generally blow from south to north and should be occasionally
breezy, according to T-Storm. Rain chances in the region increase early next
week as cooler air filters southward, the firm said.
Planting conditions, in general, "look pretty good," Gartner said. The USDA
said U.S. winter wheat planting was 14% complete as of Sunday, below the
five-year average of 20%.
Minneapolis Grain Exchange
There was some bearish market chatter that Russia's grain crop could be
bigger than previously expected, a MGE floor trader said. Bargain buying helped
prices trim losses after hitting limit down, he said.
Although prices slipped Tuesday and Wednesday, the losses do not represent a
"huge decline" considering wheat's recent run to all-time highs, an MGE floor
trader said.
oggi lo tengono sù per i capelli la soia e il corn plus $ debole , petrolio e intero paniere CRB forte
stupendo il commento di gartner della spectrum che dice che questo toro deve essere foraggiato ogni giorno altrimenti sò q@zzi ( traduzione con licenza poetica
)JUS Wheat Review: Sinks On Profit-Taking, Lack Of Bullish News
By Tom Polansek
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--U.S. wheat futures sank Wednesday, with contracts at all
three exchanges briefly touching limit down on profit-taking and a lack of
bullish news, traders said.
Chicago Board of Trade December wheat tumbled 24 cents to $8.45. Kansas City
Board of Trade December wheat closed down 20 1/4 cents at $8.28 1/2, and
Minneapolis Grain Exchange December wheat fell 17 1/2 cents to $7.98 1/4.
CBOT December wheat hit limit down, or 30 cents lower, in early activity as
traders extended losses from Tuesday. The bulls in the wheat market need to be
fed every day, and the overnight offered few fresh, supportive developments to
put on their plates, traders said.
Commodity funds sold an estimated 5,000 contracts at the CBOT. In pit trades,
FC Stone bought 1,000 December, while Citigroup sold 600 December and Fimat
sold 400 December.
There are some bearish ideas that demand is drying up for the near term, an
analyst said. End users need to make some unexpected purchases for prices to
climb higher, he said.
India, for one, reaffirmed it's satisfied with its stocks for the time being
and did not plan on issuing any tenders in the near future. India gave the same
message earlier this month, although the markets still saw the situation as
bearish, traders said.
"You have to feed this bull every day," said Louise Gartner, analyst with
Spectrum Commodities. "If everybody gets their demand satisfied up front...then
you're done (with export sales) for a while."
It also seems as though the market is comfortable with the Australian Bureau
of Agricultural & Resource Economics' crop estimate of 15.5 million tons,
traders said. ABARE on Tuesday lowered its forecast 31% from June due to severe
dryness.
Prices slumped Tuesday despite the cut, which bulls saw as "disappointing,"
traders said. Tuesday's setback showed panic buying had subsided, an analyst
said.
Wheat futures climbed to all-time highs last week, and the recent weakness
indicates prices may have reached a top, an analyst said.
"I think the traders are trying to confirm a top," Gartner said. "There are
definitely a group of traders who think the high is in and are willing to step
up and sell it."
However, it's likely "the market is not going to be ready to roll over until
we have the final results from Australia, or it's obvious what those
(production) numbers might be," Gartner said.
It appears as though widespread rain will drop 0.20-0.33 inch of moisture on
western Australia from Sunday into Monday, according to T-Storm Weather.
However, the sprinkles will be far less than needed to ease dry conditions, the
weather firm said in a forecast.
"Australia's major wheat areas have only scattered light showers through the
next ten days," DTN Meteorlogix said in its forecast. "Crop losses will
increase as the crop enters the heading stage of development during the next
few weeks."
By contrast, Argentina's central grain belt has received beneficial rains
recently. Although the belt was mostly dry Tuesday, soil moisture has increased
significantly across the main growing areas of during the past week,
Meteorlogix said.
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture will release weekly export
sales data. For the week ended Sept. 13, analysts expect sales to total 600,000
to 1.5 million tons.
Kansas City Board of Trade
Fresh talk about India holding off on any new exports triggered early
weakness at the KCBT, a floor trader said. The market seized on new comments
about India's plans as there wasn't anything else to grab traders' attention,
he said.
Favorable weather should prompt producers in the U.S. central and southern
Plains to speed up wheat seeding through the weekend and next week, T-Storm
Weather said in a forecast. The firm predicted mainly dry and unseasonably warm
weather in the region for the next several days.
Winds will generally blow from south to north and should be occasionally
breezy, according to T-Storm. Rain chances in the region increase early next
week as cooler air filters southward, the firm said.
Planting conditions, in general, "look pretty good," Gartner said. The USDA
said U.S. winter wheat planting was 14% complete as of Sunday, below the
five-year average of 20%.
Minneapolis Grain Exchange
There was some bearish market chatter that Russia's grain crop could be
bigger than previously expected, a MGE floor trader said. Bargain buying helped
prices trim losses after hitting limit down, he said.
Although prices slipped Tuesday and Wednesday, the losses do not represent a
"huge decline" considering wheat's recent run to all-time highs, an MGE floor
trader said.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
visto che sotto 850 non si andava che cosa meglio che fare limitup di venerdì just in case 
se fino a ieri shortavano wheat contro soybeans e corn oggi stanno ricoprendo le posizioni
salito al volo long di wz7 da 870 conto di uscire sul limitup altrimentostop ferreo a 866
se fino a ieri shortavano wheat contro soybeans e corn oggi stanno ricoprendo le posizioni
salito al volo long di wz7 da 870 conto di uscire sul limitup altrimentostop ferreo a 866
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
la bestia si è comportata naturalment da bestia fitusa ed ha toppato il limitup di uno dico un tick , insomma chiuso poco sopra l'entrata in barbonaggio
son curioso di vedere gli OI a fine seduta e i COT , perchè se il movimento di oggi è seguito la prossima settimana allora vuol dire che gli ultimi aumenti di OI son stati accumuli long sugli ultimi supporti invece di inizio aperture short
altro campanello d'allarme - nelle ultime sedute hanno tirato un sacco le scadenze del nuovo raccolto e il K tra quelle del vecchio , infatto lo spread H-K è quello che % si è chiuso di più sta settimana
il corn è cazzutissimo
son curioso di vedere gli OI a fine seduta e i COT , perchè se il movimento di oggi è seguito la prossima settimana allora vuol dire che gli ultimi aumenti di OI son stati accumuli long sugli ultimi supporti invece di inizio aperture short
altro campanello d'allarme - nelle ultime sedute hanno tirato un sacco le scadenze del nuovo raccolto e il K tra quelle del vecchio , infatto lo spread H-K è quello che % si è chiuso di più sta settimana
il corn è cazzutissimo
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
leone ha scritto:Il tuo target per il corn qual è?
Grazie
ciao
ciao, difficile anzi impossibile dare target di prezzo nell'attuale situazione, ci sarà sicuramente una battaglia tra le varie granaglie a conquistare più acri per i prossimi raccolti e inoltre le scorte sono ai minimi per tutti .
In questo periodo per esempio soia e corn dovrebbero essere sotto pressione per il raccolto già in bin invece sono lì sui massimi , e anche il cotone è partito
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
September 24, 2007
Wheat Holds off the Bears
The wheat markets are clearly showing that they are not ready to roll over just yet. The choppy price action over the last several sessions has seen plenty of aggressive selling, only to find buyers waiting in the wings and eager to take advantage of the pullbacks.
For two weeks now, the price activity has been a combination of quick moves in both directions, filled in by directionless trading that keeps us rangebound and unable to maintain momentum in either direction. And so we continue to hover just below the $9 mark on Chicago Dec, waiting for the next big event to knock the market out of its comfort zone.
Of course, that would depend on developments in Australia’s crop and the pace of export demand here in the US. Australia continues to see their wheat crop wither, with production estimates falling further as every day goes by. The latest projections are suggesting a 12-13 MMT crop, down from ABARE’s 15.5 MMT just a week ago.
Rains have not materialized in key growing areas of Australia and producers are abandoning hopes of harvest and looking to graze or hay the crop in many of the eastern growing regions. Western Australia looks to be their best hope, and even there the rains have been spotty and barely enough to keep the moisture base ahead of evaporation.
Export demand continues on its blistering pace, with another impressive sales week of 1.6 MMT, again higher than trade expectations. Yes, the weaker dollar is helping but it’s still comes down to the fact that world supplies are record tight, Australia is losing another crop and the US is about the only game in town. Russia announced a barley export tariff and suggested that they would release government wheat stocks if domestic prices got too high.
Iraq bought 500 TMT of wheat; 400 US hrw and 100 Canadian. Just days later, they announced another tender. They, too, are watching events unfold in Australia, one of their major suppliers, and are taking steps to insure adequate supplies down the road.
Buyers have been forced to front-end load their purchases as a result, hence our breakneck pace of export sales despite record high prices. At what point the buying stops is anyone’s guess. While Argentina will be able to fill some of Australia’s void, most of their exports will still go to Brazil. After that, the next major exporter’s harvest won’t be until next spring which is a very long wait for those needing to buy and already in short supply.
While the wheat market has shown signs of cracking, the dam has not been broken yet. I still think Australia holds the key to near term price action and until the market can get a better grasp of production from them, it will continue to fend off the bears. That production number will be known in just a few short weeks.
Informa released their acreage estimates last week, with total wheat plantings up 2.1 million acres to 62.6 million; that’s after a 3.3 million acre increase in wheat plantings last year. Corn will lose about 4.7 million, soybeans gain 4.8 million and cotton lose 900,000.
It’s also possible that even after the market knows those numbers, that we really don’t break all that much until the market feels comfortable with the crops in India or Pakistan, or even waiting until the US crops is better know. Despite an increase in planted acres and good planting conditions, with stocks this tight we could well see the market protect what’s left until the new crop is assured.
Wheat Holds off the Bears
The wheat markets are clearly showing that they are not ready to roll over just yet. The choppy price action over the last several sessions has seen plenty of aggressive selling, only to find buyers waiting in the wings and eager to take advantage of the pullbacks.
For two weeks now, the price activity has been a combination of quick moves in both directions, filled in by directionless trading that keeps us rangebound and unable to maintain momentum in either direction. And so we continue to hover just below the $9 mark on Chicago Dec, waiting for the next big event to knock the market out of its comfort zone.
Of course, that would depend on developments in Australia’s crop and the pace of export demand here in the US. Australia continues to see their wheat crop wither, with production estimates falling further as every day goes by. The latest projections are suggesting a 12-13 MMT crop, down from ABARE’s 15.5 MMT just a week ago.
Rains have not materialized in key growing areas of Australia and producers are abandoning hopes of harvest and looking to graze or hay the crop in many of the eastern growing regions. Western Australia looks to be their best hope, and even there the rains have been spotty and barely enough to keep the moisture base ahead of evaporation.
Export demand continues on its blistering pace, with another impressive sales week of 1.6 MMT, again higher than trade expectations. Yes, the weaker dollar is helping but it’s still comes down to the fact that world supplies are record tight, Australia is losing another crop and the US is about the only game in town. Russia announced a barley export tariff and suggested that they would release government wheat stocks if domestic prices got too high.
Iraq bought 500 TMT of wheat; 400 US hrw and 100 Canadian. Just days later, they announced another tender. They, too, are watching events unfold in Australia, one of their major suppliers, and are taking steps to insure adequate supplies down the road.
Buyers have been forced to front-end load their purchases as a result, hence our breakneck pace of export sales despite record high prices. At what point the buying stops is anyone’s guess. While Argentina will be able to fill some of Australia’s void, most of their exports will still go to Brazil. After that, the next major exporter’s harvest won’t be until next spring which is a very long wait for those needing to buy and already in short supply.
While the wheat market has shown signs of cracking, the dam has not been broken yet. I still think Australia holds the key to near term price action and until the market can get a better grasp of production from them, it will continue to fend off the bears. That production number will be known in just a few short weeks.
Informa released their acreage estimates last week, with total wheat plantings up 2.1 million acres to 62.6 million; that’s after a 3.3 million acre increase in wheat plantings last year. Corn will lose about 4.7 million, soybeans gain 4.8 million and cotton lose 900,000.
It’s also possible that even after the market knows those numbers, that we really don’t break all that much until the market feels comfortable with the crops in India or Pakistan, or even waiting until the US crops is better know. Despite an increase in planted acres and good planting conditions, with stocks this tight we could well see the market protect what’s left until the new crop is assured.
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