Grains : corn, wheat, oats,soybeans, soybean meal&oil

visto che abbiamo il q di stare in gain sui due messi trail poco sotto entrata
ieri avevo la possibilità di prendere almeno 10 cents ma tutta sta vola non ti fa ragionare bene se assieme ci deve aggiungere anche il fardello delle altre posizioni da tener d'occhio e puntellare se necessario, questo per far capire quanta ragione abbia ditro a dire che stare a cavallo su sta bestia feroce è distruttivo dal punto di vista psycho
 
trail scattato sul wh8 , esco anche dal corn dic a 71 e faccio tot 12cent , 11 puliti che mi scalo al WC h8 che ora mi conto da 470 :rolleyes:
 
Fleursdumal ha scritto:
trail scattato sul wh8 , esco anche dal corn dic a 71 e faccio tot 12cent , 11 puliti che mi scalo al WC h8 che ora mi conto da 470 :rolleyes:

stoppato tutto a 944,5 ... recupero quei 4 soldi che mi sono rimasti ... convinto oramai che questi vogliono andare a 1000, continuare a pisci.argli contro non ha proprio senso. :rolleyes: :(
 
ditropan ha scritto:
stoppato tutto a 944,5 ... recupero quei 4 soldi che mi sono rimasti ... convinto oramai che questi vogliono andare a 1000, continuare a pisci.argli contro non ha proprio senso. :rolleyes: :(

fatto bene vecio tanto si vede che vogliono andare in limit , il maggio tanto per cambiare ci sta già da mezz'ora, fossi stato più sveglio avrei cercato subito di mettermi long sul wz7 ma a fine settimana si arriva sempre spompati
 
i COT sul ChicagoWheat parlano chiaro, il net short pesa tutto sugli small speculators

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OI in crescita anche sul Corn

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October 1, 2007

Wheat Keeps Pushing Higher

More blistering export sales, chasing would-be top pickers and establishing more all-time highs. All in a week’s work for the wheat complex, which refuses to break and continues to confound the bears. Even at nose-bleed levels, this wheat market is as strong as ever.

The demand base is enormous as buyers continue to front load their purchases. The withering crop in Australia has forced many buyers back to the table to stretch their supplies until the Northern Hemisphere’s crop is harvested. Even acknowledging that they may already have adequate supplies, these same buyers are contracting for more – just in case. Export sales were 1.5 MMT, with most of it hard red winter wheat sales. After factoring in cancellations, soft red sales were a goose egg.

For the most part, most of the demand has been directed to the US, where the markets are freer to negotiate. The uncertainty surrounding Russia’s talk of export tariffs sent buyers either here or to Canada. It does appear, however, that Russia is finalizing their export tariff rate to 10%, which some analysts suggested would do little to slow down their sales. There is also talk that once Russia’s rules are finalized, buyers will be more confident in initiating contracts with them.

Black Sea activity will be monitored very closely as they’ve been known to spoil many a bull party. And it wouldn’t come from just Russia; Kazakhstan announced this week that their wheat production reached a new record at 19.8 MMT, well above USDA’s last estimate of 14.0 MMT. The Ukraine looks like it will keep what it has after announcing that they would shut down exports after Nov. 1.

The small grains and stocks report just added fuel to the bull’s fire, with US wheat supplies getting even tighter. All wheat production pegged at 2.067 billion bushels, down 47 million from USDA’s September supply/demand report and 51 million lower than the average trade estimate. The lower production takes ending stocks very close to the 300 million bushel mark. The surprise came from white wheat and spring wheat, where production was much less than expected, and prompted Minneapolis to regain some ground in the wheat complex.

The stocks report was bullish as well at 1.717 billion bushels as of September 1, the lowest figure in 33 years. On-farm stocks were a mere 495 million, reflecting the aggressive selling pace by farmers. Contrarily, beans and corn stocks were well above trade estimates and cast a negative tone to their market. With active harvesting for both crops, plenty of stocks on hand and a huge corn crop on the way, the row crops will continue to struggle to keep pace with wheat.

It does, however, suggest that feed grain supplies will be plentiful here in the US and should help alleviate world feed grain shortages as well, eventually taking some of the buying pressure off of wheat. That’s not to say that wheat can’t continue to rally. In fact, wheat supplies will remain very tight until the Northern Hemisphere’s crop comes online.

And so the market waits, watching Australia strike out again, watching Argentina get needed rains, and waiting to see what the early growing seasons of the Northern Hemisphere will bring. It’s likely that wheat will see setbacks, which will probably be volatile; but I don’t think the market will give up its bull trend until it feels comfortable with Northern Hemisphere production, which is at least mid-April.
 
appena i funds cercano di girarsi si trovano il vuoto in danaro e si precipita in un buco nero :V limit down anche nell'ah notturno , ma meglio andare con i piedi di piombo con sta vola

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 10/3/2007

December wheat traded 22 1/2 cents lower in the overnight session.

After a period of several weeks where the US was the primary supplier of wheat for new export business, cash traders yesterday were surprised to see more wheat offered from several countries in the Egypt optional origin tender. With global freight rates moving to a new all-time record high this week, many other suppliers (Russia, France, Germany, UK and Kazakhstan) have a significant advantage over US wheat depending on the location of the buyers. Egypt, Morocco and Bangladesh appear to be the best new buyers in tenders looking foreword. Bangladesh issued a tender overnight to import 50,000 tonnes of wheat. News that Egypt bought Russian wheat yesterday seemed to be the catalyst for the sharp sell-off, and the news sparked aggressive long liquidation selling from funds and speculators. Funds were noted sellers of near 6,000 contracts yesterday. The weekly crop updates showed winter wheat planting had reached 42% complete (as of Sunday) compared to 49% last year and 51% as the 5-year average. Stats Canada will release a wheat crop production report on Thursday, which is expected to confirm a smaller crop. In July, the government projected a crop of 20.32 million tonnes, down nearly 20% from last year.

Fund selling helped drive the market to limit down shortly after the delayed opening yesterday, as long liquidation selling from fund traders and speculators was active. KC wheat was also limit down, and both markets remained near or at limit down for much of the session. A sharp drop in other commodity markets like gold and crude oil and a surge up in the US dollar were seen as bearish forces. News that Egypt bought 80,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia and none from the US in their overnight tender was also seen as somewhat negative. A combination of high prices and the turn up in the dollar raised concerns that export business would slow. South Korea bought 73,000 tonnes of US wheat and Japan offered to buy a total of 160,000 tonnes of wheat from the US and Canada in their weekly tender.

Only light and scattered rains are expected for Australia growing regions for the next 5 days with a little more in the forecast for Western Australia and less rain in the east. Production losses are likely to continue. Gulf basis was steady. As of September 25th when December wheat closed at 887 1/4, the Commitment of Traders report with options showed that non-reportable traders (small specs) were net short a record high 36,848 contracts.
 
etfs corn

:ciao:

io sono nuovo, visto che voi siete esperti chiederei una piccola cosa:

ho in carico etfs corn ad euro 1,233 (cambio usd 1,41).

che ne dite, mantenere aspettare o che altro.?

grazie per la gentilezza
 
ciao,
guarda in tempi normali la stagionalità direbbe che il corn va in ribasso sino a dicembre per via del raccolto in atto che si riversa poi sul mercato , però questi non son tempi normali :D :rolleyes: basta leggersi un pò di pagine , quindi difficilissimo dare consigli perchè la volatilità è altissima quindi anche il rischio.
 

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