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Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 9/27/2007
December wheat traded 18 cents higher in the overnight session and managed a new all-time high at 939 1/4.
While traders continue to look for traditional signs of a top, the wheat market continues to see active demand from importers, and the focus of attention is still on "how high do prices need to go to slow demand?" It is still several months before new crop supply from the Southern Hemisphere hits the world market. Traders were counting on a solid export flow from Australia to meet demand. However, the Australia supply is still uncertain, and importers are still aggressive buyers on the world market, mostly for US wheat. Higher prices so far have not slowed or rationed demand. Funds were noted buyers of near 5,000 wheat contracts yesterday. On top of the surge in new sales completed in the past week, Jordon, Morocco, Iraq, Pakistan and Turkey are still tendering to buy wheat on the world market. For the weekly export sales report, released before the opening, traders are looking for wheat sales near 850,000-1.2 million tonnes as compared with 1.6 million tonnes last week. Sales need to average just 245,000 tonnes per week to reach the current USDA forecast. On top of suspending import duties for cereals, the EU Agriculture Ministers voted yesterday to end a rule that farmers leave 10% of their land fallow, which could trigger an increase of about 10 million tonnes in grain production for next year. In searching for a sign of an overbought condition, traders look at the fund net long position for an extreme but trend following funds in the last COT supplemental report held a net short position of 3,359 contracts.
Continued active demand from key world importers and continued concerns that the wheat production potential in Australia is slipping on a daily basis without widespread rain helped spark the solid gains in the market overnight. December wheat closed into new all-time high ground and at limit-up on the session yesterday. Russian news added to the positive tone, as Russia plans to impose a 10% wheat export duty by the end of November. The USDA reported a sale of 200,000 tonnes of hard red winter wheat to Algeria, which is on top of the sales of 330,000 tonnes to Algeria on Tuesday. Jordon announced a tender to buy 100,000 tonnes of hard wheat, and Morocco seeks 133,450 tonnes of soft wheat. Kansas City and Minneapolis December wheat moved to a new all-time highs as well.
Only light and scattered rains are expected for Australia growing regions for the next week. Rains in Brazil this week apparently helped ease dryness in Parana. Wheat basis at the Gulf was steady to higher yesterday, despite the limit-up advance of futures, as export demand remains strong. For the quarterly Grain Stocks report for Friday, traders are looking for September 1st wheat stocks at 1.833 billion bushels (range 1.775-1.925) as compared with 1.751 billion last year. For the small grains summery report, traders are looking for spring wheat production near 506 million bushels (range 500-519) as compared with 500 million as the August estimate. All wheat production is expected near 2.118 billion bushels (range 2.107-2.131) as compared with 2.114 billion as the August estimate. The market needs to move to a high enough price to slow demand, but active new buying from importers this past week keeps the uptrend intact.
Weekly export sales for wheat, released before the open, came in at 1,513,800 tonnes for the current crop and 49,800 tonnes for new crop for a total of 1,563,600, which was above trade expectations.
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