Grains : corn, wheat, oats,soybeans, soybean meal&oil

[ditropan]

ho acchiappato un altro cornuto a 335 ... :angry:vediamo se mi mollano anche un sacco di riso ai saldi

tre anni fà, se non ricordo male era il 2004 feci il tuo stesso errore longando il corn ... stessa situazione di adesso e stesso periodo ... alta produzione tempo a favore e rottura dei minimi precedenti come successo ieri .... andò a finire che il corn scese lentamente diminuendo man mano la sua volatilità tenendomi incastrato fino a febbraio dell'anno dopo ... risultato : 2 rollaggi e mesi di attesa solo per rivedere i miei soldini.

Da allora mi sono ripromesso di non fare mai più questo errore ! :angry:

se lo fai in spread va bene per via dell'alto valore che ha raggiunto con il wheat ... altrimenti questa operazione, nelle situazioni attuali del corn non ha alcun senso IMHO.

Ora come ora se tratto il corn come operazione a se, piuttosto è meglio aspettare un rimbalzo per shortare. :yes:

... almeno io la penso così !

 

[Leo's]

Ed invece è proprio ora che và tradato .... se lo molli adesso vuol dire che della soia un ci hai capito un piffero !

Io per shortare sulla forza mi sono beccato in faccia 50 punti di gap-up sulle dichiarazioni usda + altri 50 punti fino a 950 di venerdì ... ho dovuto sopportare con pazienza più di 110.000 $ di marginazione ... però ci credevo e venerdì gli ho dato altri 5 contratti a 944 chiusi ieri a 860.

... e' da fine maggio che gli stò dietro con i 20 contratti in posizione ... ed ora che la strada inizia a diventare in discesa non ci penso un fico secco a mollare l'osso !!!


Adesso è naturale che ci sarà un rimbalzo, l'entità dello stesso non è data a saperlo prima (885 ? 900 ?) ... ma è proprio in questi frangenti che si entra corti ... non certo prima come ho fatto io ! Per lo meno ... un vero trader shorta sulla debolezza ... ovvero adesso ... mai prima !!!!

Per inciso ... io non sono un vero trader !


Nella mia strategia adesso se ci sarà un buon rimbalzo (diciaqmo di un paio di giorni) gli tornerò a dare i 5 contratti.

Stò inoltre monitorando il wheat per capire che vuole fare ... l'idea è di un laterale in range da 640-620 ... in tal caso buono da struttare con una spoletta di contratti.

e se tu non sei un vero trader, noi che siamo?

cmq, thanks per la spiegazione, molto chiara
in effetti quello che intendevo dire è che ora mi sembrava troppo basso per shortare, dopo avere perso per pochi tick l'entrata a 945
certo che su un rimbalzo, se il trend è short, sarebbe da entrare..
personalmente, sono due giorni che inserisco in stand by uno short alto ma non me lo prende (oggi 900 ma ha fatto max 877)
vediamo nei prox giorni
ma che target al ribasso potrebbe avere secondo te?

 

[ditropan]

L'ultimo quote non esiste!

tra i 200 ed i 250 centesimi dai massimi IMHO.

Quindi target come 750 - 700 non sono impossibili.

 

[Fleursdumal]

il W-C è tornato a 300 su sep e dic , per fortuna son coperto grazie ai trade fatti l'altra volta che ci arrivò in intraday
lo spread sta andando in backwardation ergo mi viene altra cosa da provare , uno spread di spread , short W-C H8 long N8 , tra i due ci sono ora 100 punti di differenza

 

[giomf]

Live Cattle . . cos'è ? Carne di bovino .. ?

Ha certificati in ABN ... ?


( se mi rispondesse qualcuno ... )

 

[Fleursdumal]

il wheat si sta giocando i massimi sul raccolto EU quindi bisogna dare un occhio anche al wheat quotato sul LIFFE
spread W-C teso come non mai, tant'è che il Cbot ha aumentato i margini



J US Wheat Review:Gains;World Balance Sheet Poised To Tighten

CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--U.S. wheat futures posted strong gains Tuesday, on fresh
speculative buying amid serious concerns about wheat crops in Europe. Chicago
wheat futures notched fresh contract highs Tuesday, while Chicago, Kansas City
and Minneapolis wheat all posted fresh contract high closes.

Chicago Board of Trade September wheat futures closed up 21 3/4 cents at
$6.42 a bushel. December futures closed up 21 1/2 cents at $6.59 a bushel.

Kansas City Board of Trade September wheat futures closed up 20 1/4 cents at
$6.30 and December futures closed up 20 1/4 cents at $6.45 1/2.

Minneapolis Grain Exchange September wheat closed up 22 cents at $6.43 1/4
and December closed up 19 1/2 cents at $6.53 1/4.

"Concerns about U.S. quality and production have been well traded, but now
the attention shifts to Europe, where wet conditions are threatening production
and quality," said a U.S. brokerage analyst. "Several key production areas in
the E.U. are under stress from heavy rainfall and that could tighten the world
balance sheet and reduce supplies of quality wheat...," said the analyst.

France, Germany and the U.K. make up over 60% of the E.U.'s total wheat
production. All three countries are experiencing major harvest delays and
threats to production due to the ongoing wet weather. "Analysts are constantly
revising their crop estimate downward," said U.K. merchant, Grainfarmers. The
merchant added that public intervention stocks are already at very low levels.
"In the U.K., it would only take a 10% output loss to completely wipe out our
export surplus," said Grainfarmers.

On the demand side, it was reported Tuesday that Egypt made another big
purchase of wheat, including a good portion from the U.S. There is also talk
Algeria is seeking at least 100,000 metric tons of soft wheat, with some
speculating the purchase could be as large as 500,000 metric tons.

Shifting back to the weather in U.S. spring wheat country, hot and dry
weather forecasts for the northern Plains states only added bullish fuel to the
upside price move in wheat futures on Tuesday.

Monday afternoon's weekly crop progress reports showed the U.S. spring wheat
crop conditions declining slightly, but still at relatively high rating levels.
The hard red winter harvest in the U.S. has finally caught up with the
five-year average, after lagging early on due to wet weather. Eighty-one
percent of the U.S. HRW crop was reported harvested in the latest week, up from
70% last week.

 

[Fleursdumal]

July 23, 2007

Wheat Stands Alone

The wheat complex is still stuck in a narrowing trading range, supported by record high European wheat prices and stress to the spring wheat crop here in the US, while being pressured by relentless selling in corn and beans.

With the winter wheat harvest in the final stages as they begin cutting in Montana and the far north Midwest, there is little hedge pressure showing up in cash or futures markets. Production concerns remain focused on the deteriorating spring wheat crop across Montana, western North Dakota and the southwest Canadian prairies, where days and days of intense heat have withered spring wheat.

In addition to weather stress here in the US, the Europeans are also experiencing continued problems with their winter wheat harvest as persistent rains have been delaying France and Germany’s harvests. Yields have already been reduced and attention is turning to declining quality as well.

The harvest problems overseas have pushed European prices to all-time highs and, which have also lent a strong layer of support to our own price action. US wheat prices have been able to fend off most of the spillover selling from another massive round of liquidation in corn and beans.

Demand has also lent a huge layer of support for wheat prices, as we continue to see unusually large export sales numbers, consistently above trade expectations over the last several weeks. What’s more, there appears to be little export competition, as a recent tender by Egypt garnered only two offers, that of the US which got the bulk of the sales, and Russia who only got a surprisingly small part of the sale. With Russia’s harvest still on the horizon, it’s possible that they’re just running short of exportable supplies for the near term, particularly considering that some of their production region suffered lower yields this year due to drought.

The continued weakness of the US dollar has made us much more competitive overseas and a decrease in freight rates gave us a leg up as well. The first quarter of the marketing year is usually the busiest for the US and we are certainly making hay this year. It will be weeks before other northern hemisphere major exporters have their new crop available for sale – all of whom have had either production or harvest problems so far this year. Canada is experiencing the same heat stress as Montana and North Dakota; the CIS had drought in southeast Ukraine and southwest Russia, and now Europe is struggling to bring its crop home. Argentina and Australia have planted their crops and are quietly waiting and hoping for the good prices to stick around for another six months.

I have felt that wheat prices would stay strong until we get the US spring wheat crop in the bin, and it’s clear that wheat has the resilience to ward off the demons of corn and beans. The technical formations of the wheat complex do have the look of possible topping action, with large distribution patterns and head and shoulders patterns on some nearby futures contract months. So, with spring wheat harvest only weeks away, we need to be especially diligent in watching for selling signals. The critical support levels would be the early July spike low; if those are violated then most likely the major highs would be confirmed.

 

[freemandoro]

Ciao a tutti,
gli analisti e commentatori della pagima finanziaria su CNN,da tempo non fanno che parlare di etanolo o meglio come negli USA la produzione agricola si rivolga in maniera massiccia allo svilupp della produzione della materia prima per tal prodotto al quale danno una importanza piu´che notevole nel prossimo futuro.
Visto che qui siete davvero esperti di commodities,mi piacerebbe sapere la Vostra opinion e se siete investiti su qualche e quale compagnia del comparto.Il nostro Killer,interpellato su cio´,si e´dimostrato scettico,almeno per ora.
grazie,saluti

 

[Leo's]

July 23, 2007

Wheat Stands Alone

The wheat complex is still stuck in a narrowing trading range, supported by record high European wheat prices and stress to the spring wheat crop here in the US, while being pressured by relentless selling in corn and beans.

With the winter wheat harvest in the final stages as they begin cutting in Montana and the far north Midwest, there is little hedge pressure showing up in cash or futures markets. Production concerns remain focused on the deteriorating spring wheat crop across Montana, western North Dakota and the southwest Canadian prairies, where days and days of intense heat have withered spring wheat.

In addition to weather stress here in the US, the Europeans are also experiencing continued problems with their winter wheat harvest as persistent rains have been delaying France and Germany’s harvests. Yields have already been reduced and attention is turning to declining quality as well.

The harvest problems overseas have pushed European prices to all-time highs and, which have also lent a strong layer of support to our own price action. US wheat prices have been able to fend off most of the spillover selling from another massive round of liquidation in corn and beans.

Demand has also lent a huge layer of support for wheat prices, as we continue to see unusually large export sales numbers, consistently above trade expectations over the last several weeks. What’s more, there appears to be little export competition, as a recent tender by Egypt garnered only two offers, that of the US which got the bulk of the sales, and Russia who only got a surprisingly small part of the sale. With Russia’s harvest still on the horizon, it’s possible that they’re just running short of exportable supplies for the near term, particularly considering that some of their production region suffered lower yields this year due to drought.

The continued weakness of the US dollar has made us much more competitive overseas and a decrease in freight rates gave us a leg up as well. The first quarter of the marketing year is usually the busiest for the US and we are certainly making hay this year. It will be weeks before other northern hemisphere major exporters have their new crop available for sale – all of whom have had either production or harvest problems so far this year. Canada is experiencing the same heat stress as Montana and North Dakota; the CIS had drought in southeast Ukraine and southwest Russia, and now Europe is struggling to bring its crop home. Argentina and Australia have planted their crops and are quietly waiting and hoping for the good prices to stick around for another six months.

I have felt that wheat prices would stay strong until we get the US spring wheat crop in the bin, and it’s clear that wheat has the resilience to ward off the demons of corn and beans. The technical formations of the wheat complex do have the look of possible topping action, with large distribution patterns and head and shoulders patterns on some nearby futures contract months. So, with spring wheat harvest only weeks away, we need to be especially diligent in watching for selling signals. The critical support levels would be the early July spike low; if those are violated then most likely the major highs would be confirmed.

Aggiornamenti sul wheat? sembra non voglia proprio scendere, anzi ...

 

[Leo's]

soya daily
pausa riflessiva? si è fermata qui? o risalita?