Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[Capirex85]

PM: Greece on normalised road

Greece is on a normalised road, prime minister George Papandreou opined in an interview with the UK newspaper Guardian, noting that in the nine months since his PASOK government took office "it has been crisis management, day in, day out", and stressing that, in politics "you have to make tough decisions".

In the interview, titled "Reinvigorating Greece is an Olympian task for prime minister Papandreou", the premier noted: "We knew that we had high debt and a high deficit with high inequality, high unemployment and negative growth … but we had no idea about the depth and breadth of the problems or the lack of good, transparent, democratic governance. When we found the deficit as high as it was [13.6% of GDP], we wanted to be absolutely transparent."

On the reactions to the austerity measures and major overhaul of the pension system, Papandreou admits that "naturally I feel very bad that we had to take these measures and that our financial sovereignty is under the tutelage of the so-called troika (the EU, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank".

"It's not a happy state to be in, and the most painful thing is to take measures against people who were not responsible for the crisis," Papandreou said.

"But you have to make tough decisions in politics," he continued, adding: "You can theorise about the options you have but in reality they are very specific. The option was: "Do we default or do we take these measures? Do we lose our pension system or do we save what we can? … it was a question of existence, of being able to pay civil servants their wages or losing that possibility."

Papandreou described as "a small revolution" the reforms his government has pushed through, adding that his hope is to "turn Greece into maybe the most transparent country in the world, with everything on the web".

Noting that re-election is not his aim, Papandreou said he is determined to change Greece "and mindsets" for the better through his modernising policies, regardless of the political cost.

"I have always said I will be in politics to serve as best as I can and it will take me wherever it will take me. As long as I feel I am doing what I think is right and just for my country, for the Greek people, that is enough for me," he said

"Saving Greece from this crisis was the first thing on the agenda. We are now on a much more normalised road," Papandreou added.

Ad avercelo un politico così in Italia... invece ci troviamo con un'accozzaglia di opportunisti

 

[discipline]

Accreditata la 2019 6% su iwbank

 

[giutrader]

Orderly Insolvency Remains A Hot Topic



Orderly insolvency, one of the ‘disturbing’ concepts for Athens, remains on the agenda of the Task Force created by the President of the EU Van Rompuy, but questions remain, since disagreements among eurozone countries on Angela Merkel’s proposal seem to have grown stronger over the past weeks.

This process has been proposed by the German Government in case a euro zone member state found in a situation similar to Greece’s.

Under this proposal, which does not include an ejection out of the euro area, in case a country΄s debt increases to a level that can not be served, then there must be a process that simulates an "orderly insolvency" with administrators appointed by the institutions of the EU

For Greece and other eurozone countries concerned, this remains a hot topic as the original proposal of Germany placed it under the changes that the Task Force will propose in October for the stricter enforcement of the Stability Pact . German proposals also called for stripping the voting rights the offending country, as well as freezing EU funds for this country.

German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is said to be pushing strongly for inclusion of relevant proposals in the Task Force’s agenda but diplomatic sources in Brussels say that opposition has begun to increase.

(Capital.gr)

Bisogna capire in che cosa consiste questa insolvenza oridnata

1) Uno spostamento delle scadenze.

2) un taglio del nominale (haircut) 20-30%

3) recovery dal 30 al 50%.

Tre probabili soluzioni.

 

[tommy271]

Athens Stocks Firm On Monday




"The focus this week will be on M&A developments in the local banking sector, the T-bill auction on Tuesday and the results of the bank stress tests on Friday," a senior local analyst told Dow Jones newswires.

“The sustainability of the volumes at satisfactory levels is what we are looking for. Banks should be in the spotlight,” Marfin Analysis says.

“In essence, in order for the GI to keep its optimum chart outlook in diagrammatic terms, the Athens market should not retreat further than the 1,580 units during today’s trading session, which also consist the GI’s intraday 2nd support level. In this context, we consider that every upward move above aforementioned levels is positive, anticipating that the GI will most probably react towards the 1,595 units region (1st support level) later during the day,” Pegasus says.

The General Index erased its earlier losses and now gains 1.17% at 1,631.66 on a total turnover of 42.67 mil. euro.

(Capital.gr)

 

[Grisù]

Utile recap dei ratings:

 

[Grisù]

Bisogna capire in che cosa consiste questa insolvenza oridnata

1) Uno spostamento delle scadenze.

2) un taglio del nominale (haircut) 20-30%

3) recovery dal 30 al 50%.

Tre probabili soluzioni.

Allo stato attuale è solo una proposta tedesca peraltro osteggiata dalla maggior parte dei paesi UE.

In altri termini si vorrebbe disegnare un percorso di insolvenza all'interno dell'area senza che il paese esca dall'euro, cosa che attualmente è l'unica soluzione praticabile per un default.

Una regola che farebbe comodo alla sola germania e tra le altre cose ridurrebbe le garanzie sugli investimenti nell'area di quasi tutti gli altri paesi saltando a piè pari il ruolo della BcE.

Naturalmente i tedeschi hanno paura che l'area euro si riduca di numero in caso di default poichè avrebbero maggiori difficoltà ad esportare con monete svalutate diverse dall'euro.

 

[tommy271]

Allo stato attuale è solo una proposta tedesca peraltro osteggiata dalla maggior parte dei paesi UE.

In altri termini si vorrebbe disegnare un percorso di insolvenza all'interno dell'area senza che il paese esca dall'euro, cosa che attualmente è l'unica soluzione praticabile per un default.

Una regola che farebbe comodo alla sola germania e tra le altre cose ridurrebbe le garanzie sugli investimenti nell'area di quasi tutti gli altri paesi saltando a piè pari il ruolo della BcE.

Naturalmente i tedeschi hanno paura che l'area euro si riduca di numero in caso di default poichè avrebbero maggiori difficoltà ad esportare con monete svalutate diverse dall'euro.

Se insolvenza ci deve essere questa sarà decisa dalla Grecia, non dalla Germania.
E sarà fatto tutto nell'interesse greco, aldilà delle beghe europee.

 

[tommy271]

La Borsa di Atene sembra avviata al recupero, anche oggi registra un recupero di + 1,07 portando l'indice Ase a 1630 pb.
Sempre inchiodati, invece, i nostri spread/bund sul decennale sui soliti 780 pb ....

 

[Grisù]

Se insolvenza ci deve essere questa sarà decisa dalla Grecia, non dalla Germania.
E sarà fatto tutto nell'interesse greco, aldilà delle beghe europee.

Credo che la germania voglia far passare queste regole per gestire nuovi casi grecia, a mio parere ad esempio il portogallo fino ad arrivare alla spagna.

Dubito che la grecia esca dall'area euro con Papandreou, la cosa più preoccupante nel medio periodo potrebbe essere un cambiamento politico che potrebbe portare ad un cambiamento dell'atteggiamento nei confronti di UE/IMF. Nel breve non vedo particolari problemi anche i professionisti del rating si sono giocati le loro carte in senso negativo.

 

[tommy271]

LYXOR ETF GREECE: Double creux déclenché


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Sous-jacent Type Fraction Frais / an Mnémo Isin MSCI GREECE Lyxor ETF 1/10 0.0045 gre FR0010405431


Opinion moyen terme :

Opinion court terme :

Résistance : N°1 / N°2 : 4.8 €/ 5.9€ Support : N°1 / N°2 : 4.2 €/ 3.65€
Commentaire technique
Suite à l'inscription d'un sommet au-dessus des 8 EUR en octobre 2009, le tracker Lyxor ETF Greece a entamé une solide dynamique baissière comme en atteste la moyenne mobile à 50 jours qui a couvert les cours durant leur repli. Le support majeur établi à 3,65 EUR semble être parvenu à enrayer cette tendance et les cours consolident désormais au-dessus de ce niveau.

Anticipation
A plus court terme, lors de la dernière impulsion haussière initiée sur ce soutien majeur, les cours ont franchi la moyenne mobile à 50 jours avant de poursuivre leur progression au-delà des 4,20 EUR. Le débordement de ce niveau marque le déclenchement d'une figure de retournement en double creux depuis le début du mois de juin. Les cours devraient maintenant poursuivre leur reprise haussière en direction de la prochaine résistance située à 4,80 EUR correspondant à l'objectif théorique de cette figure. Ce scénario optimiste serait invalidé en cas de clôture sous les 4,20 EUR.

• Informations sur la valeur

Date : 16-07-2010 Cours de clôture : 4.34 Eligibilité : PEA / Assurance / SRD Assets : millions d'€ Stratégie : REPLICATION Légal : FCP

• Valeurs Principales

National Bank of Greece SA28.462319Coca Cola Hellenic Bottling Co SA14.360551Alpha Bank AE10.771843OPAP SA10.765449Bank of Cyprus Public Co Ltd9.342811

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