Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
giutrader
Forumer attivo
Grisù
Forumer attivo
Sono curioso di vedere cosa la merkel e il suo esercito di dilettanti saprà partorire, resto del parere che queste regole sull'insolvenza siano un assist per la speculazione.
La notizia dei 200 miliardi di euro ancora da acquistare mi sembra una menata giornalistica, a meno che non considerino anche i titoli usati come collaterale. Non mi pare che i volumi sul secondario siano così elevati, sarebbe preferibile a quel punto provare a imporre il divieto sulle vendite allo scoperto per ottenere un risultato sulla riduzione di scambi e controllare il mercato con volumi più ridotti.
tommy271
Forumer storico
NOloss, hai messo troppa carne sul fuoco.
Ogni paragrafo è motivo di discussione: potremo passare tutto agosto insieme a parlare ...
Possiamo fermarci al primo paragrafo, ma poi dobbiamo ripercorrere 1500 anni di storia. Tentiamo sommariamente ....
La caduta dell'Impero Romano è stata una lunga fase durata moltissimi decenni, per comodità la fissiamo con la caduta di Romolo Augustolo nel 476.
I popoli "barbari" non erano un'unica entità ma un frutto di diverse culture ed esperienze come mi dici.
E' vero infatti che da queste culture eterogenee derivano le principali culture/nazioni europee.
La formazione della nazione italiana si era subito ben avviata, al pari della Francia e Germania con i Franchi, con l''invasione dei Longobardi.
Questi si erano ben presto impossessati delle città romane che in Italia non andarono quasi mai in abbandono, contrariamente al resto d'Europa. Un minimo di vita "civile" continuava ad esistere, fatta di scambi e sopravvivenza.
La resistenza all'occupazione fu minima: i bizantini erano impegnati su altri fronti di guerra in Asia e mantennero, più avanti, solo il possesso della "Romagna" (da qui il nome) e delle terre che attraversavano l'Appennino per congiungersi a Roma. In poche parole l'Esarcato.
La conquista Longobarda fu molto lenta, quando le città opponevano resistenza, facevano fatica ad avere la meglio. Questo la dice lunga anche sulla "forza" degli invasori. Per entrare a Pavia occorse un assedio durato anni ...
La storia antica è essenzialmente costruita sulle "fonti" (anche noi in base alle nostre analisi finanziarie ci basiamo su agenzie di rating, bilanci, news ecc per i nostri ragionamenti e successivi posizionamenti).
Solo che queste fonti che ci sono pervenute, sono tutte unilaterali.
Giungono, cioè da ambiti che hanno subito l'invasione: quindi estremamente di parte nei giudizi.
Questo è quello che dobbiamo tenere presente quando andiamo ad analizzare un titolo.
Da quanto sappiamo, in base alla moderna storiografia, i Longobardi si limitarono a mantenere il controllo delle città nominandone in capo ad ognuna un capo militare: il Duca.
Dall'insieme di queste entità sparse a macchie di leopardo si giunge, tra guerre intestine, alla formazione di un primo "stato" che comprendeva grossolanamente il nord Italia. Altre formazioni contigue si erano già create intorno a primi nuclei formando il Ducato di Toscana, di Spoleto e di Benevento.
Tutto sommato la fase di ricostruzione si era avviata con un dominio, tutto sommato, neanche terribile.
Contrariamente a quanto si pensa i Longobardi erano abbastanza tolleranti, all'interno del Regnum Langobardorum vigevano due sistemi giuridici a cui le popolazioni native potevano appellarsi: il Diritto Romano e la Leges Longobarda.
Mi accorgo che allargo troppo ... qui finisco.
Per tornare alla nostra Svizzera, il Canton Ticino fu occupato dai Longobardi mentre invece sopravvisse alla decadenza il mitico regno romano di Vittorio in mezzo alle Alpi Retiche.
Un caposaldo in mezzo alla tormenta.
Ultima modifica:
tommy271
Forumer storico
Tommy, se dovessi iniziare a smobilitare facci un fischio...
Ho sempre postato i miei movimenti. Se dovrei muovermi (vendere o alleggerire) lo segnalo. Come sempre ...
Al momento sono fermo da mesi con 30K sul 17 e 30K sul 18.
tommy271
Forumer storico
La fonte della "news" è greca, quindi relativamente attendibile. Non credo abbiano interesse a "soffiare" contro.
La notizia dei 200 MLD è assurda semprechè, come dici tu, non facciano riferimento anche al collaterale.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Greece Disagrees With EU Proposals To Sell PPC Capacity
Greece does not agree with a European Commission proposal to sell power plants of state run PPC, a senior government official told Reuters on Friday.
"We do not agree with this proposal because it presents serious legal and technical problems," the Energy and Environment Ministry΄s secretary general Constantine Mathioudakis told the news agency.
Mathioudakis said this was a proposal, not a demand, and international officials were open to discussing alternatives.
"They have said that other, equivalent, measures could also be implemented," he said.
Last Friday, PPC denied references in press articles that it has submitted to the Greek State any proposal for the opening up of the electricity market.
(Capital.gr)
Greece does not agree with a European Commission proposal to sell power plants of state run PPC, a senior government official told Reuters on Friday.
"We do not agree with this proposal because it presents serious legal and technical problems," the Energy and Environment Ministry΄s secretary general Constantine Mathioudakis told the news agency.
Mathioudakis said this was a proposal, not a demand, and international officials were open to discussing alternatives.
"They have said that other, equivalent, measures could also be implemented," he said.
Last Friday, PPC denied references in press articles that it has submitted to the Greek State any proposal for the opening up of the electricity market.
(Capital.gr)
tommy271
Forumer storico
Greek manufacturing slump slows in July
Monday August 02, 2010 07:02:08 AM GMT
ATHENS, Aug 2 (Reuters) - The slump in Greece's manufacturing activity continued in July but there were signs the deterioration is easing as output and new orders contracted at a slower pace, a survey showed on Monday. The Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Greece rose to 45.3 in July from 42.2 points in June, continuing to recover from a 13-month low of 41.8 points hit in May. Still, it remained below the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction.
Poor economic conditions and lacklustre demand were the main reasons behind the contraction in new orders, which although still severe, was the mildest since January as the decline in new export business eased.
The index for new orders rose to 45.1 from 39.9 in the previous month.
"There have been further improvements in the levels of both the output and new order indices at the start of the third quarter, which have contributed to a further rise in the PMI," said Markit economist Gemma Wallace.
"These improvements appear to have been driven principally by a weaker fall in foreign demand. This suggests that efforts by Greek manufacturers to increase their international competitiveness are starting to take effect, although they have not yet led to a rise in new export business," Wallace said.
Austerity measures to tackle the country's massive debt burden are expected to keep the Greek economy in recession for a second year, with GDP seen contracting by as much as 4 percent, according to analysts and the country's central bank. Last year GDP shrank 2 percent.
Data showed a continued existence of spare capacity at Greek manufacturing plants as unfinished business and employment fell further. Job shedding picked up to the most pronounced pace since March 2009 as firms rationalised workforces to cut costs.
Input price inflation faced by manaufacturers moderated in July but remained marked and was attributed to higher fuel and raw material prices. Purchasing costs have risen during every month since July 2009.
Monday August 02, 2010 07:02:08 AM GMT
ATHENS, Aug 2 (Reuters) - The slump in Greece's manufacturing activity continued in July but there were signs the deterioration is easing as output and new orders contracted at a slower pace, a survey showed on Monday. The Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Greece rose to 45.3 in July from 42.2 points in June, continuing to recover from a 13-month low of 41.8 points hit in May. Still, it remained below the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction.
Poor economic conditions and lacklustre demand were the main reasons behind the contraction in new orders, which although still severe, was the mildest since January as the decline in new export business eased.
The index for new orders rose to 45.1 from 39.9 in the previous month.
"There have been further improvements in the levels of both the output and new order indices at the start of the third quarter, which have contributed to a further rise in the PMI," said Markit economist Gemma Wallace.
"These improvements appear to have been driven principally by a weaker fall in foreign demand. This suggests that efforts by Greek manufacturers to increase their international competitiveness are starting to take effect, although they have not yet led to a rise in new export business," Wallace said.
Austerity measures to tackle the country's massive debt burden are expected to keep the Greek economy in recession for a second year, with GDP seen contracting by as much as 4 percent, according to analysts and the country's central bank. Last year GDP shrank 2 percent.
Data showed a continued existence of spare capacity at Greek manufacturing plants as unfinished business and employment fell further. Job shedding picked up to the most pronounced pace since March 2009 as firms rationalised workforces to cut costs.
Input price inflation faced by manaufacturers moderated in July but remained marked and was attributed to higher fuel and raw material prices. Purchasing costs have risen during every month since July 2009.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Lenders bracing for action in mergers and acquisitions, but some remain skeptical
Market conditions will determine sector consolidation, but 2010 is certainly not 2006 or 2007
By Dimitris Kontogiannis
Large Greek banks turned out to be among those that benefited the most from the pan-European stress tests, seeing their shares rise sharply. However, consolidation continues to be the dominating theme in the sector, with the government and the central bank being strongly in favor of larger banks. While many in the market are fascinated by the prospect of mega-deals, others remain skeptical, pointing out that 2010 is not 2006 or 2007.
Talk of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the local banking sector has been a regular topic for some years now but reality shows it was quite premature. It is easily understood why. The top echelon of each large Greek bank had no incentive to enter into a deal with a competitor at the risk of losing some of its privileges – i.e. high positions and bonuses – as long their bank grew fast and produced large profits, keeping shareholders happy.
It was easy to do so until 2008 as banks enjoyed ample liquidity and lending rates were at low levels while the economies of Greece and neighboring countries were advancing rapidly. Of course, deals could have been completed even then if it were not for the intransigence of some senior bankers during the negotiations, as some insiders admit today.
Even so, it would have been quite different, since the last large bout of consolidation in the 1990s, when the government privatized a few small and medium-sized banks such as Bank of Athens and Cretabank, which were acquired by EFG Eurobank, and Macedonia-Thrace Bank, which was bought by Piraeus Bank.
In larger deals, Ionian Bank was also privatized, when then state-controlled Emporiki Bank sold its majority equity stake to Alpha Bank and EFG Eurobank managed to convince ErgoBank’s shareholders to merge, forming today’s EFG Eurobank Ergasias franchise.
The M&A deals during that era were facilitated by the exit of most foreign banks with small branch networks from the Greek market as the country’s prospective entry into the eurozone deprived them of big revenues from activities in the capital markets, especially in bonds and drachma trading.
Fast-forward to 2008, with the global credit and economic crisis knocking on the door of European economies and banks, when banks realized that aggressive cuts in official rates by the ECB and other major central banks helped bring down interbank interest rates, that is the loans commercial banks charge to each other. However, capital markets where companies raise long-term funds by issuing securities did not return.
Liquidity became a big issue for Greek banks with a loan-to-deposit ratio of 100 percent but they managed to convince many investors that they had raised enough capital and other funds in 2007 to weather the market storm. The collapse of Lehman Brothers in the fall of 2008 made things worse as Greek banks competed aggressively for deposits, raising them to very high levels.
The liquidity issue eased in 2009 thanks to the ECB’s easing credit policies but local banks could still not raise money on world capital markets as interbank funding had become expensive and short-term in nature. The deterioration of the Greek and neighboring economies where they have a presence made things even worse since a larger percentage of loans were not serviced on time by individuals and companies, eating into their capital.
Since then, the new thorny issue has been the sharp drop in the value of Greek government bonds, which many in the market consider a liability since they doubt the country’s ability to make it. Of course, the same bonds could turn out to be a bonanza if Greece passed the fiscal test.
So, in addition to liquidity and capital adequacy, sovereign bonds have been added to the reservoir of market worries regarding Greek banks.
Although the market has been positive about the idea of a large bank deal, as witnessed by the sharp rise of Hellenic Postbank and even ATEbank shares following a proposal by Piraeus Bank, some bankers and analysts continue to question whether a larger bank will lead to a stronger bank at this point. Their point is simple. If Greece regains access to capital markets, banks will follow and large banks will be able to do so at better rates. If not, local banks will not have access either and will have to rely on the ECB for liquidity. Any bank with a large portfolio of sovereign bonds is currently being viewed negatively by investors as well. So, if two or more banks merge and the new larger banks ends up with a big portfolio of bonds, the risk to the system rises.
Moreover, they argue, it may be more difficult to achieve synergies in Greece at a time when layoffs have become easier but recession is hurting more, making it more difficult to fire people en masse and cut costs due to strong resistance by the unions. In addition, they say, the number of bankers who can really make an M&A work is limited in this country, rendering the outcome of synergies more doubtful.
Of course, there are counterarguments favoring bigger banking schemes for the bailout of a weak bank and other reasons. Still, the question which has to be answered is whether any new larger bank will be better off in terms of liquidity, capital adequacy and exposure to sovereign bonds than its separate parts. The answer is obviously conditional on the banks taking part in the M&A and certainly market conditions will play a key role. At this point though, conditions are not as bullish as they were back in 2006 or 2007 when M&A deals were the norm at least abroad.
(Kathimerini.gr)
***
Per chi segue il settore bancario ...
By Dimitris Kontogiannis
Large Greek banks turned out to be among those that benefited the most from the pan-European stress tests, seeing their shares rise sharply. However, consolidation continues to be the dominating theme in the sector, with the government and the central bank being strongly in favor of larger banks. While many in the market are fascinated by the prospect of mega-deals, others remain skeptical, pointing out that 2010 is not 2006 or 2007.
Talk of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the local banking sector has been a regular topic for some years now but reality shows it was quite premature. It is easily understood why. The top echelon of each large Greek bank had no incentive to enter into a deal with a competitor at the risk of losing some of its privileges – i.e. high positions and bonuses – as long their bank grew fast and produced large profits, keeping shareholders happy.
It was easy to do so until 2008 as banks enjoyed ample liquidity and lending rates were at low levels while the economies of Greece and neighboring countries were advancing rapidly. Of course, deals could have been completed even then if it were not for the intransigence of some senior bankers during the negotiations, as some insiders admit today.
Even so, it would have been quite different, since the last large bout of consolidation in the 1990s, when the government privatized a few small and medium-sized banks such as Bank of Athens and Cretabank, which were acquired by EFG Eurobank, and Macedonia-Thrace Bank, which was bought by Piraeus Bank.
In larger deals, Ionian Bank was also privatized, when then state-controlled Emporiki Bank sold its majority equity stake to Alpha Bank and EFG Eurobank managed to convince ErgoBank’s shareholders to merge, forming today’s EFG Eurobank Ergasias franchise.
The M&A deals during that era were facilitated by the exit of most foreign banks with small branch networks from the Greek market as the country’s prospective entry into the eurozone deprived them of big revenues from activities in the capital markets, especially in bonds and drachma trading.
Fast-forward to 2008, with the global credit and economic crisis knocking on the door of European economies and banks, when banks realized that aggressive cuts in official rates by the ECB and other major central banks helped bring down interbank interest rates, that is the loans commercial banks charge to each other. However, capital markets where companies raise long-term funds by issuing securities did not return.
Liquidity became a big issue for Greek banks with a loan-to-deposit ratio of 100 percent but they managed to convince many investors that they had raised enough capital and other funds in 2007 to weather the market storm. The collapse of Lehman Brothers in the fall of 2008 made things worse as Greek banks competed aggressively for deposits, raising them to very high levels.
The liquidity issue eased in 2009 thanks to the ECB’s easing credit policies but local banks could still not raise money on world capital markets as interbank funding had become expensive and short-term in nature. The deterioration of the Greek and neighboring economies where they have a presence made things even worse since a larger percentage of loans were not serviced on time by individuals and companies, eating into their capital.
Since then, the new thorny issue has been the sharp drop in the value of Greek government bonds, which many in the market consider a liability since they doubt the country’s ability to make it. Of course, the same bonds could turn out to be a bonanza if Greece passed the fiscal test.
So, in addition to liquidity and capital adequacy, sovereign bonds have been added to the reservoir of market worries regarding Greek banks.
Although the market has been positive about the idea of a large bank deal, as witnessed by the sharp rise of Hellenic Postbank and even ATEbank shares following a proposal by Piraeus Bank, some bankers and analysts continue to question whether a larger bank will lead to a stronger bank at this point. Their point is simple. If Greece regains access to capital markets, banks will follow and large banks will be able to do so at better rates. If not, local banks will not have access either and will have to rely on the ECB for liquidity. Any bank with a large portfolio of sovereign bonds is currently being viewed negatively by investors as well. So, if two or more banks merge and the new larger banks ends up with a big portfolio of bonds, the risk to the system rises.
Moreover, they argue, it may be more difficult to achieve synergies in Greece at a time when layoffs have become easier but recession is hurting more, making it more difficult to fire people en masse and cut costs due to strong resistance by the unions. In addition, they say, the number of bankers who can really make an M&A work is limited in this country, rendering the outcome of synergies more doubtful.
Of course, there are counterarguments favoring bigger banking schemes for the bailout of a weak bank and other reasons. Still, the question which has to be answered is whether any new larger bank will be better off in terms of liquidity, capital adequacy and exposure to sovereign bonds than its separate parts. The answer is obviously conditional on the banks taking part in the M&A and certainly market conditions will play a key role. At this point though, conditions are not as bullish as they were back in 2006 or 2007 when M&A deals were the norm at least abroad.
(Kathimerini.gr)
***
Per chi segue il settore bancario ...
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