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Germany’s Plan For Orderly Insolvency Procedure Said To Win France’s Backing



German plans to create an orderly insolvency procedure for EU member states put forward in the past months have won the support of French government experts, Germany’s Der Spiegel reported over the weekend according to Dow Jones Newswires

Still, the magazine says that the French government opposes any notion of a new steering committee for countries in such a procedure if it draws upon the traditional role of the Paris Club, which has overseen relations between defaulting countries and their sovereign creditors in the past.

Der Spiegel didn’t suggest that Economy Minister Christine Lagarde has expressed support for the idea.

(Capital.gr)

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Teniamo sempre le orecchie aperte ...
 
IMF Says Greece Will Pull It Through



Greece will make it and it will gain the trust of markets again as long as it is committed to implementing the reforms, IMF official Poul Thomsen told Dow Jones Newswires.

"The pessimism in Greece in misplaced because by 2012 the country will have a primary surplus and a deregulated economy with viable social systems. But the caveat is that the program is implemented properly," Thomsen told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview.

"This program in its design is ambitious and impressive and it is off to a good start. It is a very front-loaded fiscal-adjustment program with an important structural-reform component to create opportunities for growth through structural reforms. There are risks and pressure points but June targets have been met so the program appears on track for the year," said Thomsen.

"From talking to a lot of people inside and outside government, social partners, and average Greek on the street, they understand that this is a defining moment for the country and systemic change is necessary to compete in the euro zone," said Thomsen.

"The government needs to act more vigilantly on tax administration because wage earners and pensioners have paid their share but the wealthy have not. But this can΄t be achieved overnight--it΄s a process."

"There are obviously challenges and it will not be an easy process so the government has to work smart. It must be a priority to restart growth focusing on reforms to create real growth, employment and higher incomes, and many of these structural issues have short-term payoffs for society," said Thomsen.

(Capital.gr)
 
Troica Pushes On Railways Restructuring



The EU/IMF mission demanded from the government to include to in its budget figures the debt and deficit numbers of the railways company and the public transport enterprises of Athens.

Their accumulated debt comes at EUR17 bil.

"It is the only way that you will be able to monitor closely the progress and act,” said last week Servas Deroose, an EU official.

The troika is concerned because a great part of these deficits is registered due to payroll expenses, and they even talked about lay offs. Some of these public enterprises showed real wage increases of 6-7% in 2009, when the effects of the crisis were evident.

OSE. Greece’s railway company, is expected to have a EUR528 million deficit in 2010 and ETHEL, Athens’ bus company, is estimated to post a deficit of EUR322 mil. Their revenue is projected to be less than 1/3 of their deficit.

The Ministry of Finance sets as its top priority the restructuring of railways so as to sell a 49% stake to private investors.

(Capital.gr)
 
Initiatives needed for return to growth

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Government investment plans, improved funding can help boost businesses, consumer spending

By Dimitris Kontogiannis - Kathimerini English Edition


Greece won the praise of the European Union, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Central Bank (ECB) and others for sticking to fiscal consolidation and being ahead of the curve in the implementation of structural economic reforms.
However, everybody agrees the challenges ahead are big and will be more difficult to meet without the engine of the economy starting up again.

The country has made a strong start in complying with the program of economic and structural reforms, which aims at bringing the budget deficit below 3.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2013 and boosting its competitiveness in order to create more jobs in the future and put its economy on a sustainable growth path.
Although the bulk of analysts and other market participants still doubt whether the country will be able to attain the fiscal targets set out in the program, there are a few encouraging first signs in the far end of the bond market, namely the 15- and 30-year segments, where some players are willing to quote bid and ask prices.

Of course, this is the result of the positive reception of the news from the bond market but it is by no means indicative of its future behavior toward Greek bonds.
Undoubtedly, one of the biggest question marks of the program has to do with the depth and the endurance of the recession in the Greek economy.
The program projects a 4.0 percent drop in real GDP this year but a much higher-than-anticipated inflation has made nominal GDP look better than before.

Since nominal GDP is the denominator in the budget deficit and public debt-to-GDP ratios, this favorable development means Greece has some leeway to meet this year's deficit target set at 8.1 percent of GDP, despite some expected slippage in tax revenues.
The same argument can be used for the expected upward revision of GDP next year.

However, the members of the so-called troika and the government know that meeting the budget deficit goal by revising the GDP number will not be received well by the same markets they want to convince about Greece's creditworthiness and adherence to fiscal orthodoxy.
It is therefore necessary to cut the budget deficit first and then bring in the upward revision of GDP.

However, cutting the budget deficit will not be easy next year without rushing to put the economy back on a growth path. The Greek economy is projected to contract again in 2011, although at a slower pace compared to 4.0 percent this year, but this has to change for the better.
A source of strength may come from the external sector, provided scenes of violent demonstrations in the streets of Athens do not take place so that tourism recovers. Imports should also be down, which helps close the trade gap and current account deficit, while merchandise exports should grow.

It is known, however, that the external sector, a traditional drag to the Greek economy, cannot pull the economy out of recession by itself. Investment could do it but a contracting economy and high taxes do not help - although there appears to be interest for investments in certain sectors, such as energy, health care and transportation.
The government could help by making it easy for fast-track investments to be implemented but even this requires time and there is always a sizeable time lag between a decision to invest and its conclusion. In this regard, Greece should have moved faster to reap the benefits earlier and boost the economy. The EU could also help by easing conditions for disbursing funds for cofinanced projects in the country to help bridge the time gap.

Still, one has to be realistic and recognize that the impact of such investment initiatives on the economy will not be felt before the fourth quarter of 2011, even if they were to be taken next month.
In other words, the burden for pulling the Greek economy out of the woods as early as the second half of 2011, falls on consumers. This is not the best bet when they have been hit with a series of tax hikes, salary cuts and job losses.
However, it looks as if consumption spending had started to suffer well before the recession became evident. This points potentially to a precautionary reduction in consumer spending in anticipation of adverse future events. This may have been also influenced by the prevailing negative psychology.

If this is the case and Greece meets its fiscal targets without resorting to new austerity measures while the economy of the eurozone picks up steam aided by Germany, consumer sentiment could start to improve gradually.
But Greece will still need to put some more fuel in the fire.
Nothing will be better than bank loans to consumers and enterprises. In this regard, the troika and the government should perhaps come up with more packages of state guarantees to banks to get cheap funding from the ECB, since credit institutions cannot borrow in the interbank and wholesale markets.

All in all, Greece's good start to implementing the program should be immediately supplemented by initiatives and measures for implementing large fast-track investments and prop up consumer sentiment to cut short the recession and boost growth in 2011.
If this does not happen and the authorities opt to continue on the road of fiscal orthodoxy, it will be more difficult to convince many people to stay the course.
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Macro news may set market tone


Investors will be looking for signs on the state of the Greek economy this week with a slew of macroeconomic news scheduled for release in coming days.
Figures on manufacturing (June), construction (May) and industrial output (June) will be released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) today, providing information on sectors severely hit by Greece’s first recession in 16 years.
Details on the extent of the slowdown will also be on hand on Thursday, when ELSTAT provides estimates on the course of gross domestic product for the second quarter.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Central Bank (ECB) and European Commission reiterated their forecast for a 4 percent contraction rate this year; however, Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou believes the economy will perform slightly better than this.
May unemployment data are also on the agenda for release on Thursday.
On Friday, the Athens bourse’s benchmark general index gave up 1.85 percent to end at 1,713.01 points but managed to hold onto gains of 1.84 percent for the week.


(Kathimerini.gr)
 
Vado qui per vedere gli spread ma non ho ancora capito come si leggono :p

FT.com - Markets Data - Bonds & Rates Overview


Vi segnalo che i cds sono in ferie...

E' molto semplice, io faccio così: vai sulla colonna dei "Ten Year Government Bond Spread".
Se vuoi calcolare quello italiano vai su Italia e lunga la colonna Latest leggi 383%, questa somma devi sottrarla a quella della Germania che segnala 251%.
383 - 251 = 132. Questo è lo spread sul bund.
 
per curiosità, c'è qualcuno di madre lingua greca che ha giornali economici o l'accesso al real time della borsa greca?

perchè sul sito della borsa greca ci sono le obbligazioni ma la colonna quotazione è vuota:
giusto per vedere se ci sono differenze:
ad esempio la 2014 5,5% ha codice "delta maiuscolo" 280109A1
la 2019 6%: "delta maiuscolo" 110309A1

Per seguire l'andamento della Borsa puoi andare qui:
http://www.capital.gr/

Per le obbligazioni aspettiamo una risposta dal nostro corrispondente Pyrinos ... se non è in ferie.
 
More cuts, measures on the way


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Finance Ministry looking to slash another 2 bln in spending, as IMF official urges liberalization

Although Greece has secured the next installment of the 110-billion euro emergency loan from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kathimerini understands that the Finance Ministry is looking to cut another 2 billion euros from public spending to make up for a shortfall in revenues, as the head of the IMF mission in the country warns that the government cannot let up in its efforts to restore fiscal stability.
Officials from the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the IMF have warned the ministry that the government’s revenues are likely to be 2 billion euros lower than planned at the end of the year. Revenues would have to increase by more than 20 percent in the second half of the year for Greece to hit its targets.
As this seems unlikely, the ministry has already begun to examine ways of making up for this shortfall by reducing public spending even further. Sources said that this is likely to involve 1 billion euros being cut from the public investment program, delaying the purchase of 600 million euros’ worth of military equipment, and slashing another 400 million euros from various other sources.
An EU-IMF team is due back in Greece in September to check on how the government is progressing with its deficit-slashing and structural reforms but the IMF’s deputy European director and head of mission to Greece, Poul Thomsen believes that “an impressive start” has been made.
“I would even go as far as saying that are few European countries that have produced so many reforms in such a short time,” he told Sunday’s Kathimerini.
“The priority is to push through reforms that can help restore growth, such as the liberalization of closed professions and overcoming obstacles to developing tourism and the retail market,” he said, adding that the implementation of the measures had to be “socially just,” calling for “drastic measures” to tackle tax evasion.
The IMF official stressed that the foreign inspectors are not pressuring the Greek government to shut down public organizations, nor to sell of any of the Public Power Corporation’s electricity plants.


(Kathimerini.gr)

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Greece’s Junes IPI Drops 4.5%



The Production Index in Industry (IPI) in June 2010 compared with June 2009 recorded a fall of 4.5%, the country’s national statistical office said Monday.

A year ago, the annual rate of change of the IPI was –13.0%.

In the 6-month period January 2010 – June 2010, the average rate of change of the IPI was –5.8%.

A year ago, the corresponding average rate of change of the IPI was –10.3%.

Annual rates of change of June 2010 compared with June 2009

The IPI in June 2010, compared with June 2009, decreased by 4.5% due to the annual changes of the sub-indices of the industrial sections:

a. Mining and quarrying production fell by 2.3%.
b. Manufacturing production fell by 3.0%.
c. Electricity production fell by 10.5%.
d. Water supply production fell by 1.2%.

Average rates of change of the period January - June 2010 compared with January - June 2009

The IPI in the 6-month period January - June 2010, compared with the period January - June 2009, decreased by 5.8% due to the 6-month average rates of change of the sub-indices of the industrial sections:

a. Mining and quarrying production fell by 3.6%.
b. Manufacturing production fell by 4.7%.
c. Electricity production fell by 10.7%.
d. Water supply production rose by 0.8%.

(Capital.gr)
 
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