Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[tommy271]

Oh, ne riparleremo sicuramente molto prima
Ma facili profezie a parte , vedo che non hai compreso cosa ho scritto.
Il problema non sono gli oneri sul debito che la Grecia paghera' durante il piano, ma dopo , cioe' quando l'ombrello UE verra' meno e bisognera' rimborsare i finanziamenti ricevuti.
A che tassi potra' emettere nuovi titoli ? Il motivo per il quale sui buoni a scadenza inferiore ai 12 mesi paga "solo" il 5% e' che la UE ha garantito la copertura finanziaria appunto per i prossimi 12 mesi (erano 18 ,ma 6 sono gia' passati), trascorso questo termine il loro rischio sara' assimilato alle scadenze piu' lunghe e i tassi balzeranno al 10% e oltre anche per i titoli a breve.
Comunque stiamo probabilmente facendo solo dell'accademia in quanto il mercato e' ben consapevole di questo e probabilmente porra' fine alle tribolazioni greche prima della scadenza delle garanzie UE.

No, ho capito bene.
Solamente che tu dai per assodato che i tassi balzeranno al 10%, mentre io non sono di quest'avviso. Comunque le emissioni a breve che stanno piazzando sono al 4,5% circa (tu mi dici con copertura ... e questo non posso negarlo).
Concordo invece sull'accademia: siamo su un forum, giust'appunto ... .

 

[tommy271]

Greek August CPI Up 5.5% On the Year



Greece’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August 2010 increased by 5.5% on a yearly basis, the national statistical office said Tuesday.

The previous year, in August 2009, the annual rate of change of the CPI was 0.8%.

The CPI in August 2010 compared with July 2010, decreased by 0.7%. The previous year, in August 2009, the monthly rate of change of the CPI was -0.7%.

In the twelve-month period from September 09 to August 10 compared with the period from September 08 to August 09 the annual average rate of change of the CPI was 3.5%. The previous year (period from September 08 to August 09), the corresponding annual average rate of change of the CPI was 1.8%.

(Capital.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Participation Of Foreign Investors In ATHEX Increases In August



The participation of international investors in the capitalization of the Greek Stock Exchange on 31/8/2010 was increased compared to the previous month at 49.3%, the Greek stock market operator said Tuedday.

In August 2009 foreign investors participation was 48.4% .

The Greek investors on 31/8/2010 held 49.4% of the total capitalization of the ATHEX listed stocks.

Transactions Value in August 2010 reached EUR1,719.2 million decreased by 25% since July 2010 when transactions value was EUR2,287.4 million. Compared with August 2009 when transactions value was EUR4,174.6 million there was an decrease of 59%.

Correspondingly, Average Daily Value (ADV) of Transactions in August 2010 was EUR78.15 million which is lower compared to July 2010 (EUR104 million) and lower since August 2009 (EUR198.8 million).

The number of Active investors Accounts for August reached 41,616 accounts compared to 48,415 of the previous month (August 2009: 73,570).

In August 2010 there were created 1,467 new Investor shares against the 3,393 new shares that had been created during previous month.
Market capitalization of the Athens Stock Exchange by the end of August was calculated at EUR60.7 billion.

Compared with the corresponding capitalization of July 2010, which was EUR65.2 billion, there was a decrease of 6.9%, while compared with the corresponding capitalization of August 2009 which was EUR92.1 billion, the decrease reached 34.1%.

The capitalization of the shares forming the index FTSE/ATHEX 20 reached EUR41.9 billion (decrease by 7.1% since the previous month), FTSE/ATHEX Liquid Mid index reached EUR5.6 billion (decrease by 9.8%) and FTSE/ATHEX SmallCap 80 index reached EUR2.2 billion (decrease by 5.1%).

Trade Analysis based on origin of investors

In August 2010, international investors as a whole were net sellers by EUR23.62 million. The outflows derived from international institutional investors (EUR77.26 million) and offshore companies (EUR10.67 million), while international legal entities and international retail investors were buyers with net amount of EUR50.9 million and EUR13.41 million respectively.

Greek investors were net buyers by EUR24.74 million, derived from Greek retail investors (EUR37.08 million), private legal entities (EUR15.43 million) and Greek Public Sector (State and State Controlled Funds) (EUR0.71 million), while Greek institutional investors were sellers with net amount of EUR28.48 million.

The remaining EUR1.11 million of outflow from other investors, concern accounts with unregistered country of tax residence.

International investors in August 2010 did 38.8% of the transactions’ value (in July 2010 they did 44.3% of the transactions’ value, while in August 2009 they had done 46.6% of the transactions’ value). Greek retail investors in August 2010 did 39.6% of the transactions’ value (in July 2010 they did 32.8% of the transactions’ value, while in August 2009 they had done 33.9% of the transactions’ value). Greek Institutional Investors (private financial companies) in August 2010 did 19.5% of transactions’ value (in July 2010 they did 21.3% of the transactions’ value, while in August 2009 had done 15.6% of the transactions’ value).

(Capital.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Greek, Irish Bonds Decline Versus German Bunds on Bank Holdings Concern

By Matthew Brown - Sep 7, 2010 12:06 PM GMT+0200

Greek, Irish and Portuguese government bonds fell relative to benchmark German bunds on concern European banks are vulnerable to losses on their holdings of so-called peripheral euro-region sovereign debt.
The extra yield investors demand to hold Greek 10-year government bonds rather than benchmark bunds reached the highest level in four months. Pacific Investment Management Co. fund manager Andrew Bosomworth said yesterday the Mediterranean nation faces a “substantial” default risk when its bailout program expires in three years. The Wall Street Journal said European stress tests of major banks understated some holdings of sovereign debt in the wake of Greece’s budget crisis.
“You have to be an adrenaline junkie to be very active in those markets,” Frances Hudson, head of global thematic strategy at Standard Life Investments, said in an interview in London today, referring to the debt of peripheral euro-region nations. “We aren’t heavy in any of the peripherals. It’s obvious people are going to buy German bunds for safety.”
The Greek-German 10-year yield spread reached 942 basis points and was at 939 basis points as of 10:51 a.m. in London, from 914 basis points yesterday. The German-Irish 10-year spread climbed to 368 basis points, the highest since Bloomberg started compiling the data, from 343 basis points. The Portuguese-German spread was at 349 basis points from 333 basis points.
The Greek-German spread reached a record 973 basis points on May 7, the day before the European Union and International Monetary Fund crafted a region-wide bailout package to ward off investors betting on the break-up of the euro.
German lenders including Deutsche Bank AG need to raise about 105 billion euros ($134 billion) to reach an estimated 10 percent Tier 1 capital ratio, a key measure of financial strength, Dirk Jaeger, who is responsible for regulatory topics at the Association of German Banks, said yesterday.

(Bloomberg)

 

[tommy271]

Europe’s Bond Market Tanks Again


By Neil Shah

Europe’s biggest can of worms is overflowing again.
Fears that Europe’s banks are vulnerable to losses on risky government bond investments are sending shivers through the European bond markets, especially Ireland and Greece. Investors are dumping risky bonds tied to weaker European economies and crowding into the safe havens of German and British government bonds.
Ireland, which is grappling with an increasingly expensive bail-out of troubled lender Anglo Irish Bank, is the single worst performer Tuesday.
The premium that Ireland has to pay over Germany to borrow from investors in the bond market has hit its highest level since the euro was created in 1999 (Specifically, 3.75 percentage points compared with 3.47 percentage points on Monday.) Prices of Irish bonds have fallen, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year Irish bond above 6%. (Bond prices and yields move inversely.)
Greece isn’t faring much better. The yield on its 10-year note is nearly 12%, while its own “risk premium” over Germany has also blown higher. Portugal’s spreads are also weaker. Credit-default swaps for Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece have all jumped in price, suggesting investors are more worried about these countries defaulting on their debts.
Jamie Stuttard, head of European and U.K. fixed income at Schroders in London, points out that back in August, much of the pain in Ireland and Greece’s bond markets was actually due to investors flocking to safer German government bonds. (Global economic fears were pushing investors into safer investments.) This move widened the so-called “spread” between German and other European countries’ borrowing rates, which is – unfortunately – how their creditworthiness is judged.
Right now, however, the pain in Europe’s bond market is more about renewed concerns in the peripheral countries themselves, Stuttard says. That’s a worrying development.
Of course, a lot could change as the U.S. markets open up for business. Europe tends to flounder without the U.S. providing direction. But this certainly isn’t a great way for U.S. traders to wake up.


(The Wall Street Journal)

 

[tommy271]

l WSJ affonda i bancari, Borse nervose. E Pigs di nuovo nel mirino


I titoli di Stato di Irlanda, Grecia e Portogallo sotto forte pressione, i premi di rendimento rispetto al bund tedesco che tornano a volare, raggiungendo nuovi record nel caso dell'Irlanda. Sono gli effetti dello 'spiffero' aperto dal Wall Street Journal, chemette in dubbio l'esito degli 'stress test' europei condotti per verificare la solidità dei bilanci delle banche.

Sui mercati si torna a parlare di rischio-default e il risultato è, nel caso dell'Irlanda, un differenziale di rendimento dei titoli di Stato decennali rispetto al bund tedesco a 377 centesimi, livello mai toccato dalla creazione dell'euro. Sotto tiro anche il debito portoghese, con il premio di rendimento a 352 punti base, e quello greco, con lo 'spread' a 940 punti, poco sotto il record di 965 segnato all'apice della crisi di Atene.


Ma Roma tiene
Il ritorno di tensione risparmia invece i titoli di Stato di Italia e Spagna: il differenziale di rendimento fra i Btp decennali italiani e quelli tedeschi è a 153 dopo aver superato 170 nei giorni scorsi, quello fra i titoli spagnoli e i bund a 178 dopo aver superato 190


Il sospetto del WSJ
I recenti stress test condotti sulle maggiori banche europee hanno sottostimato l'ammontare del debito potenzialmente rischioso nel portafoglio di alcuni istituti, sostiene in un'approfondita analisi il Wall Street Journal, secondo il quale l'esame dei dati forniti dalle 91 banche "indica che alcuni istituti non hanno fornito un quadro cosi' esaustivo dell'ammontare del debito detenuto come richiesto dalle autorita' regolatorie".
Alcune banche, spiega ancora il quotidiano finanziario, hanno escluso alcuni titoli e molte hanno ridotto l'esposizione escludendo le posizioni 'short'. Per esempio, spiega il giornale, se una banca deteneva 100 milioni di euro di esposizione sui titoli greci e 25 milioni di esposizione 'short', il totale lordo risultava di 75 milioni di euro.
Il Wsj non cita banche italiane ma sottolinea come l'esposizione al debito di alcune banche, come Barclays e Credit Agricole, sia stata ridotta "di un ammontare significativo". In particolare, Barclays secondo il quotidiano, ha escluso alcuni titoli governativi considerati di trading. Mentre Credite Agricole non ha contabilizzato i debiti sovrani detenuti dalla sua filiale assicurativa.


(Rai News)

 

[sethi]

Certo, ma dopo il default e la svalutazione di due terzi del cambio del peso

Il problema si pone se la Grecia esce dalla zona euro e allora il problema sarebbe:
esiste ancora la zona euro?

Io temo di no, infatti parecchi paesi con parecchi problemi troverebbero molto più semplice uscire da un ombrello che ti impone politiche di bilancio (giuste) ma in alcuni casi impraticabili se non rischiando sommovimenti politico sociali non di poco conto .....e i paesi sappiamo bene quali sarebbero............
A questo punto o........................................................................................... l'unione europea va avanti sopportando privazioni in toto e................................................. x controparte i paesi i cui governati hanno fatto politiche "leggere" dimostrano di impegnarsi e........................................................................... nello stesso tempo paesi che si additano come alunni modello ammettono che grazie a questa situazione di mercato hanno straguadagnato e non nascondo anche grazie a politiche governative efficeinti ed azzecate (germania)

O...................................................................................................... i paesi + indebitati escono dalla zona euro svalutano del 70% le rinate monete nazionali e sinceramente lo scenario che ne potrebbe scaturire è veramente oscuro............per cui credo che convenga a tutti lasciare le cose come stanno

 

[tommy271]

Deutsche Bank: Remains Neutral On Greek Banks



Deutsche Bank remains neutral on Greek Banks, the firm said in a report dated September 6th, adding that the situation remains challenging with abnormal banking conditions reducing earnings΄ visibility.

“We expect H2 to be very decisive with respect to asset quality trends,” it said.

DB gives a ‘hold’ rating on NBG, Eurobank, Alpha Bank, Bank of Cyprus and Marfin Popular Bank and sets TP EUR11.8, EUR5,60, EUR5,30, EUR4.10 and EUR1,90 respectively.

(Capital.gr)

 

[tommy271]

ARMANI SMENTISCE: MAI COMPRATO L'ISOLA DI SKORPIOS


Giorgio Armani non ha comprato l'isola greca di Skorpios. Lo fa sapere lo stesso stilista riferendosi a quanto riportato oggi dalla tv greca che ha citato media locali. L'isola è di proprietà di Athina Onassis, nipote di Aristotele, è stata messa in vendita da tempo - a causa del suo costoso mantenimento - a circa 100 milioni di euro.
A Skorpios era parso interessato in passato il patron di Microsoft Bill Gates. Skorpios è celebre,tra l'altro, perché vi si celebrarono le nozze fra Onassis e Jacqueline Kennedy.


(Rai News)

 

[bia06]

GGBei 2025 in picchiata

Oggi sul MOT ha perso un punto in apertura e ora di pranzo un'altro punto....ultimo scambio 50.40, si rivedono i 48 nel book...la faccenda si sta facendo di nuovo grigia.....ho dato una sbirciatina su Berlino (46 e mezzo) e richiuso subito.....

Chiusura OTC di lunedì sera... Si torna a scendere, specie sui titoli medio lunghi, mentre lunghissimi e GGBei mostrano tenuta i primi, andamento positivo - controtendenza - i secondi...

il 2013 - 84,27 (BBML) 84,56 (Xtrakter);
il 2014 - 79,69 (BBML) 79,77 (Xtrakter);
il 2015 - 78,60 (BBML) 78,70 (Xtrakter);
il 2016 - 67,18 (BBML) 67,31 (Xtrakter);
il 2017 - 65,65 (BBML) 65,96 (Xtrakter);
il 2018 - 65,14 (BBML) 65,21 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6% 68,67 (BBML) 69,15 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6.5% 70,51 (BBML) 70,67 (Xtrakter);
il 2022 - 64,30 (BBML) 64,50 (Xtrakter);
il 2024 - 59,35 (BBML) 59,15 (Xtrakter);
il 2026 - 60,41 (BBML) 60,53 (Xtrakter);
il 2037 - 53,86 (BBML) 53,82 (Xtrakter);
il 2040 - 54,13 (BBML) 54,20 (Xtrakter);

GGBei 2025 - 53,04 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
GGBei 2030 - 48,26 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter