Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
tommy271
Forumer storico
Il prossimo anno.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Non lo sapevo, allora sarà il Presidente della UE che annuncerà davanti ai microfoni il default del suo Paese (il cosiddetto pacco, termine usato da Tommy): questa è ancora più difficile da immaginare.
Ciao, Giuseppe
Lo farà prima di quella data
.Diciamo nel 2012 ... il tempo di incassare il massimo senza restituire
...Mi sostituisco a Gaudente.
No, in realtà fare default è più problematico.
Il problema è politico/economico. Al momento chi governa il paese ha scelto di utilizzare la crisi per modernizzare il paese anzichè cercare altre scorciatoie.
Intanto non rimane altro da fare che incassare le cedole (o vendere) e attendere il dispiegarsi degli effetti delle riforme. Oppure attendere in una rinnovata governance tra tutti i paesi della moneta unica che dia garanzie più forti rispetto al debito pubblico.
g.ln
Triplo Panico: comprare
post del 6 maggio
Così, ho fatto un po' di ricerche sui post di mesi fa: il 6 maggio si credeva il default imminente, quel giorno mediai al ribasso e anche il giorno successivo. Il 14 maggio rivendetti con molte figure di guadagno.
Oggi, a settembre, si parla di default nel 2013. Non credo ai default preannunciati con anni di anticipo: per questo rimango in Grecia!
Ciao, Giuseppe
Così, ho fatto un po' di ricerche sui post di mesi fa: il 6 maggio si credeva il default imminente, quel giorno mediai al ribasso e anche il giorno successivo. Il 14 maggio rivendetti con molte figure di guadagno.
Oggi, a settembre, si parla di default nel 2013. Non credo ai default preannunciati con anni di anticipo: per questo rimango in Grecia!
Ciao, Giuseppe
ale.v
Nuovo forumer
Non ho seguito benissimo le vicende, ma alitalia e general motors sono due esempi di default preannunciati con anni d'anticipo, no?
Anche lehman erano parecchi mesi che si vociferava che sarebbe potuta fallire... su questo invece sono sicuro, qualche giorno fa ho riletto anche alcune discussioni dell'epoca.
Io sono fuori e vorrei rientrare, ma i due dati sul pil in calo peggiore rispetto alle attese e del minore abbattimento della spesa mi hanno tolto un po' di sicurezza.
g.ln
Triplo Panico: comprare
tommy271
Forumer storico
Per chi è interessato, una bella panoramica sui recenti orientamenti in politica estera della Grecia:
Greece - MFA - Briefing of diplomatic correspondents by Foreign Ministry spokesman Gregory Delavekouras, 9 September 2010
Greece - MFA - Briefing of diplomatic correspondents by Foreign Ministry spokesman Gregory Delavekouras, 9 September 2010
g.ln
Triplo Panico: comprare
più politico
Si, sebbene io ritenga che il problema sia più Politico che economico: per questo è mooolto più problematico.
Ciao, Giuseppe
Lo farà prima di quella data
Diciamo nel 2012 ... il tempo di incassare il massimo senza restituire
Mi sostituisco a Gaudente.
No, in realtà fare default è più problematico.
Il problema è politico/economico. Al momento chi governa il paese ha scelto di utilizzare la crisi per modernizzare il paese anzichè cercare altre scorciatoie.
Intanto non rimane altro da fare che incassare le cedole (o vendere) e attendere il dispiegarsi degli effetti delle riforme. Oppure attendere in una rinnovata governance tra tutti i paesi della moneta unica che dia garanzie più forti rispetto al debito pubblico.
Si, sebbene io ritenga che il problema sia più Politico che economico: per questo è mooolto più problematico.
Ciao, Giuseppe
tommy271
Forumer storico
Sono nettamente inferiori alle aspettative i recuperi sull'evasione fiscale (quella da recuperare è dura in tutte le nazioni del mondo), poi il resto è in linea con le aspettative.
Ma, innanzitutto, bisognerà puntare sulla crescita. Qui si giocherà il tutto.
Una spinta non potrà che arrivare da un afflusso di capitali.
tommy271
Forumer storico
FOCUS: Greece Next Week Seeks To Woo European Investors
By Costas Paris and Nick Skrekas Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
ATHENS (Dow Jones)-Senior Greek officials will sweep through Europe's financial centers next week to try and convince investors that they shouldn't have to pay ruinous interest rates on their sovereign debt.
Greece isn't planning a bond offering soon, but the current cost of servicing its outstanding debt could break the bank unless markets relent.
The yield on 10-year Greek government bonds was at a lofty 11.6% on Friday, some 9.4 percentage points above what Germany pays for equivalent debt. The Greek treasury had hoped by this time to be paying a spread over German bonds of only 5.0 percentage points.
Greek officials say they have been frustrated that the country's fiscal-reform program and support from the International Monetary Fund hasn't restored investor confidence and brought down the rate demanded for its bonds. Paying yields at current levels just isn't sustainable, they say.
"Although nobody in the government is talking about the possibility of restructuring our debt, there is increasing concern because spreads remain so high," said a senior government official familiar with the matter.
"We will try to change this by presenting to investors the progress that the Greek economy has made in the past months," this official said.
The meetings begin in London Tuesday before moving on to Paris and Frankfurt. A second trip will probably take place in October.
As much as investors, Greece will need to persuade ratings agencies to bring its debt up from junk status.
Moody's Investors Service in June cut Greece's rating four notches to below investment-grade, citing considerable uncertainty surrounding the timing and impact of support measures on the country's economic growth.
Market experts have calculated that investors could take a hit of up to 30% of the value of their Greek holdings if Athens is forced to restructure its debt.
That potential "haircut" means the Greeks will have to come bearing very persuasive presentations to reassure investors, say bond market analysts.
"On road shows investors would want to know about the long-term outlook, like what the country will do when the bailout money runs out in 2012," said Ciaran O'Hagan, fixed-income strategist at Societe Generale.
Markets need to be convinced there is an iron-clad commitment to fiscal discipline. "And naturally they want any information on when the sovereign may get upgraded to investment-grade which is also very important," O'Hagan said.
Greece, unable to tap the bond market for cash after its fiscal crisis made borrowing costs shoot up, received a EUR110 billion bailout in May from the IMF and the European Union.
In return Athens accepted a three-year austerity program that has provoked widespread anger with sharp spending cuts and tax increases.
The measures, including deep salary and pension cuts and a welter of new taxes, have sunk Greece deep into recession, with the economy expected to shrink 4% this year even as the rest of the world recovers from the global downturn. That in turn crimps tax revenues, making it more difficult for the government to narrow its deficits.
Expectations in financial markets that Athens will eventually be forced to restructure its debt have kept the yield on Greek 10-year bonds at stratospheric levels, making it too costly for the government to issue more debt. Many investors are simply staying clear.
"Nobody is touching our bonds because many in the market believe that we will have to restructure," said another Greek official involved in financial planning. "We want to allay these fears, starting with the road shows."
EU and IMF officials will accompany Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou and Public Debt Management Agency chief Petros Christodoulou on the road show, according to people in the Finance Ministry familiar with the matter.
The government doesn't expect an immediate funding problem in 2011, when it will have to raise only EUR4.8 billion in long-term debt. "But in 2012 spreads will have to shrink dramatically," said the official involved in financial planning.
In 2012 Greece has to repay EUR31.7 billion in principal and EUR11.1 billion in interest totaling EUR42.8 billion on its bonds, according to market data. In 2013 total repayments of principal and interest add up to EUR36.7 billion.
The Greek concerns are shared by the EU because a big chunk of the country's debt is held by the region's banks.
European banks held EUR111.2 billion in Greek sovereign paper, according to estimates published by the Institute for International Finance in May of this year.
Institutions in France, Germany, the U.K. and the Netherlands have the largest holdings, while U.S. banks held only about EUR11.5 billion.
Greek officials speaking privately said they are convinced that the EU and IMF, if needed, would again come to the rescue to prevent a debt restructuring.
The first Greek official said that many in the Greek government believe that the EU and the IMF will do whatever is necessary to ensure Greece doesn't default, even if all the government's efforts fail to persuade the markets.
"One possible scenario could be extending the loan from the EU and the IMF," one official said. "This will not amount to debt restructuring and will give us more breathing space."
Greece also has to repay the various tranches of IMF and EU loans in four to five years and the bulk of amortization is concentrated in the 2014-2015 period with about EUR70 billion of repayments per year.
That repayment schedule is hanging over any renewed attempt by the Greek treasury to issue new longer-term debt.
By Costas Paris and Nick Skrekas Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
ATHENS (Dow Jones)-Senior Greek officials will sweep through Europe's financial centers next week to try and convince investors that they shouldn't have to pay ruinous interest rates on their sovereign debt.
Greece isn't planning a bond offering soon, but the current cost of servicing its outstanding debt could break the bank unless markets relent.
The yield on 10-year Greek government bonds was at a lofty 11.6% on Friday, some 9.4 percentage points above what Germany pays for equivalent debt. The Greek treasury had hoped by this time to be paying a spread over German bonds of only 5.0 percentage points.
Greek officials say they have been frustrated that the country's fiscal-reform program and support from the International Monetary Fund hasn't restored investor confidence and brought down the rate demanded for its bonds. Paying yields at current levels just isn't sustainable, they say.
"Although nobody in the government is talking about the possibility of restructuring our debt, there is increasing concern because spreads remain so high," said a senior government official familiar with the matter.
"We will try to change this by presenting to investors the progress that the Greek economy has made in the past months," this official said.
The meetings begin in London Tuesday before moving on to Paris and Frankfurt. A second trip will probably take place in October.
As much as investors, Greece will need to persuade ratings agencies to bring its debt up from junk status.
Moody's Investors Service in June cut Greece's rating four notches to below investment-grade, citing considerable uncertainty surrounding the timing and impact of support measures on the country's economic growth.
Market experts have calculated that investors could take a hit of up to 30% of the value of their Greek holdings if Athens is forced to restructure its debt.
That potential "haircut" means the Greeks will have to come bearing very persuasive presentations to reassure investors, say bond market analysts.
"On road shows investors would want to know about the long-term outlook, like what the country will do when the bailout money runs out in 2012," said Ciaran O'Hagan, fixed-income strategist at Societe Generale.
Markets need to be convinced there is an iron-clad commitment to fiscal discipline. "And naturally they want any information on when the sovereign may get upgraded to investment-grade which is also very important," O'Hagan said.
Greece, unable to tap the bond market for cash after its fiscal crisis made borrowing costs shoot up, received a EUR110 billion bailout in May from the IMF and the European Union.
In return Athens accepted a three-year austerity program that has provoked widespread anger with sharp spending cuts and tax increases.
The measures, including deep salary and pension cuts and a welter of new taxes, have sunk Greece deep into recession, with the economy expected to shrink 4% this year even as the rest of the world recovers from the global downturn. That in turn crimps tax revenues, making it more difficult for the government to narrow its deficits.
Expectations in financial markets that Athens will eventually be forced to restructure its debt have kept the yield on Greek 10-year bonds at stratospheric levels, making it too costly for the government to issue more debt. Many investors are simply staying clear.
"Nobody is touching our bonds because many in the market believe that we will have to restructure," said another Greek official involved in financial planning. "We want to allay these fears, starting with the road shows."
EU and IMF officials will accompany Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou and Public Debt Management Agency chief Petros Christodoulou on the road show, according to people in the Finance Ministry familiar with the matter.
The government doesn't expect an immediate funding problem in 2011, when it will have to raise only EUR4.8 billion in long-term debt. "But in 2012 spreads will have to shrink dramatically," said the official involved in financial planning.
In 2012 Greece has to repay EUR31.7 billion in principal and EUR11.1 billion in interest totaling EUR42.8 billion on its bonds, according to market data. In 2013 total repayments of principal and interest add up to EUR36.7 billion.
The Greek concerns are shared by the EU because a big chunk of the country's debt is held by the region's banks.
European banks held EUR111.2 billion in Greek sovereign paper, according to estimates published by the Institute for International Finance in May of this year.
Institutions in France, Germany, the U.K. and the Netherlands have the largest holdings, while U.S. banks held only about EUR11.5 billion.
Greek officials speaking privately said they are convinced that the EU and IMF, if needed, would again come to the rescue to prevent a debt restructuring.
The first Greek official said that many in the Greek government believe that the EU and the IMF will do whatever is necessary to ensure Greece doesn't default, even if all the government's efforts fail to persuade the markets.
"One possible scenario could be extending the loan from the EU and the IMF," one official said. "This will not amount to debt restructuring and will give us more breathing space."
Greece also has to repay the various tranches of IMF and EU loans in four to five years and the bulk of amortization is concentrated in the 2014-2015 period with about EUR70 billion of repayments per year.
That repayment schedule is hanging over any renewed attempt by the Greek treasury to issue new longer-term debt.
- Stato
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