Greek T-Bill Auction To See Solid Demand, Yield in Focus
By Nick Skrekas and Emese Bartha Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
ATHENS (Dow Jones)--Greece's issue of 13-week Treasury bills Tuesday looks assured of very solid coverage given the small amount to be auctioned, but the market will be focusing on where yields come in, partly due to a possible spill-over effect from Ireland.
The Greek Public Debt Management Agency said last week it plans to sell EUR300 million of 13-week Treasury bills at an auction Tuesday.
Shortly before the Greek auction, Spain will offer EUR6 billion to EUR7 billion of 12-month and 18-month T-bills. The results of Ireland's EUR1 billion to EUR1.5 billion bond auction, meanwhile, will come out around the same time as the Greek results.
Greece's T-bill sale will be the second leg of what will be frequent forays into the short-term debt market, since the country in September switched to monthly T-bill sales from quarterly auctions, offering 26-week and/or 52-week T-bills on the second Tuesday of the month and 13-week T-bills on the third Tuesday.
"Given the small auction amount, even with non-competitive bids, Greece won't be raising more than EUR480 million. Local banks alone will ensure very solid over-coverage of at least four times the amount," said a head of bond trading at a Greek blue chip bank.
"The word on the street is that the PDMA would like to see the yield come in at or below 4%, but I think it could be as high as 4.15%," he added. The uniform yield at previous 13 week T-bill auction was 4.05%.
Last week, Greece sold EUR1.17 billion in 26-week T-bills and while coverage was healthy the yield came in slightly higher than at the previous auction in July, at 4.82% versus 4.65%.
Giuseppe Maraffino, strategist at Barclays Capital in London, said "I expect the same story as last week, with demand coming mostly from domestic investors."
Referring to Finance Minister Papaconstaniou's comments last week that 30% of last week's demand for the 26-week T-bills came from international investors, Maraffino said this could be the case this time too.
If the T-bill results are weak, there will be rising tension in the Greek T-bill and bond markets, suggesting a lack of confidence in the Greek government even by domestic banks, Maraffino added.
But Athens has more ambitious plans, intending to return to international markets for its borrowing in 2011, even though it is covered for now by the three-year EUR110 billion bailout package agreed on with the European Union and International Monetary Fund in exchange for severe austerity measures and structural reforms.
Greece has received EUR29 billion since the deal was made in May.
Treasury bills, which represent the short end of the yield curve, are mainly bought by local investors, while government bonds target the wider community of international investors.