Greece Reforms Must Be Equitable For Public Support: Analyst
PARIS (MNI) - In order to win public support for its drastic deficit-reduction measures, the Greek government will first need to take tougher steps to counter corruption and tax evasion, then create the conditions for a return to investment and growth, according to EU Commission counselor Loukas Tsoukalis.
"[It's] the social side now -- to get the public to accept a lower standard of living," Tsoukalis explained on the sidelines of a colloquium on the economic crisis here. The public's perception that the reforms are "equitable" will be "crucial" to their success, he said.
The university professor and president of the policy think tank Eliamep dismissed the option of debt default as "unnecessary, undesirable and unlikely" -- citing a recent IMF study of default in the advanced economies.
"I'm absolutely convinced that default at this stage would be disastrous for Greece -- it would bring the collapse of the banking sector and would be no solution," he said. As the government has a primary deficit, "default would still leave a big deficit. It would also be disastrous for the euro and European banks."
"Of course the markets don't believe it," Tsoukalis conceded. "But I have very little respect for the wisdom of the markets," he said, reminding how radically their view on Greece changed virtually overnight. "It's a typical example of over-exaggeration and short-termism."
"The challenge is very difficult, but you can win it," he argued, noting that there is a huge gray economy that can be a source of revenues. Adding around 30% to the overground economy "would make the debt ratio look very different," he quipped.
State property assets amount to some E300 billion -- roughly equivalent to the outstanding debt -- which could be better exploited and partly privatized, Tsoukalis noted.
"The majority of Greeks don't like the measures, but the majority are not convinced there is a credible alternative," he said, noting that public support for the ruling Pasok party is greater than for its opponents.
However, the political class has lost credibility and is viewed as corrupt by a majority of the population, he conceded. "That is a danger" in a country with a "strong protest culture" -- but not exclusively in Greece. "I fear that Greece is almost a test case of things that could happen in Europe," he said.
The government is increasingly cracking down on tax evaders -- entrepreneurs and independent professionals -- which is important to create an environment for investment but also for a "cathartic" impact to counter the impression that the poor are making sacrifices while the rich are getting off, he explained.
Indeed, the next year and a half, during which the recession is likely to deepen, will be a litmus test for public support, Tsoukalis stressed. Until 2012, "the economy is bound to get worse."
Until the Greeks begin to see the fruits of the structural reforms under way, the governing Socialists should consider enlarging their electoral base from a party of "trade unions and apparatchiks" to include social groups opposed to corruption and supportive of reforms, he advised.
(Imarketnews.com)