Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[pier_pat]

Anche se scrivo raramente, vi leggo sempre e ringrazio tommy del costante e sistematico aggiornamento, direi in tempo reale.
Non voglio dare la colpa sempre alla speculazione, e non nemmeno se chiamarla speculazione, ma se guardiamo ai grafici e ad alcuni semplici indicatori come RSI e momentum, tutti i bond greci (come tantissimi altri del resto) erano in ipervenduto. Le prese di beneficio ci stanno tutte e sono solo occasioni per incrementare/rientrare. Ogni notizia sarebbe stata buona (rischio elezioni o raffreddore di Papandreou...).
Se fosse così, la discesa sarebbe solo agli inizi. Mi tengo pronto per rientrare un po' più in basso.
IMHO, ovviamente.

 

[tommy271]

Anche se scrivo raramente, vi leggo sempre e ringrazio tommy del costante e sistematico aggiornamento, direi in tempo reale.
Non voglio dare la colpa sempre alla speculazione, e non nemmeno se chiamarla speculazione, ma se guardiamo ai grafici e ad alcuni semplici indicatori come RSI e momentum, tutti i bond greci (come tantissimi altri del resto) erano in ipervenduto. Le prese di beneficio ci stanno tutte e sono solo occasioni per incrementare/rientrare. Ogni notizia sarebbe stata buona (rischio elezioni o raffreddore di Papandreou...).
Se fosse così, la discesa sarebbe solo agli inizi. Mi tengo pronto per rientrare un po' più in basso.
IMHO, ovviamente.

Non saprei se la discesa è solo agli inizi.
Abbiamo lateralizzato con tendenza verso l'allargamento per 6 sedute consecutive, ieri la scossetta finale.
Credo però che certe quotazioni le abbiamo lasciate alle spalle.
Il clima elettorale recherà un pò di immobilismo, per cui è probabile il permanere di una fase debole. Semprechè non arrivino importanti ordini di acquisto sui nostri bond.

 

[tommy271]

Ministers rush to PM’s defense


Unfavorable result at local polls would corner gov’t but chance of general elections slim, cadres say



Ministers and other high-ranking cadres of ruling PASOK yesterday rallied around Prime Minister George Papandreou, defending the premier’s televised appeal to Greeks to use imminent local authority elections as an opportunity to bolster the debt-ridden government in its bid to push through reforms.

As speculation continued in the media and political circles about Papandreou’s comments on Monday night – chiefly the fact that the premier refused to rule out calling general elections in the event that PASOK suffers heavy losses in local polls – several ministers rushed to back their leader.

Deputy Prime Minister Theodoros Pangalos suggested that the local polls would be a litmus test of the government’s ability to continue with tough reforms. “If there is not adequate turnout [at the polls], we cannot keep going,” Pangalos told Antenna radio station.

Nevertheless, Pangalos said he opposed general elections “in principle” at this stage. Another Cabinet member who defended the premier’s comments was Agricultural Development and Food Minister Costas Skandalidis. He said Papandreou “cannot be prime minister under duress,” suggesting that the premier may require a new public mandate.

Other senior cadres were keen to differentiate local authority polls from general elections. “Governments do not fall in municipal elections,” remarked Alternate Defense Minister Panos Beglitis.

As Papandreou stressed his government’s commitment to “freeing Greece from all forms of subjugation and stewardship” during a visit to Thessaloniki, opposition party leaders were quick to criticize the premier’s comments on Monday night.

Most accused Papandreou of “blackmailing” Greeks by hinting at the possibility of calling general elections. “This is the first time we see a leader, certain of defeat, threatening and blackmailing his people,” said conservative New Democracy leader, Antonis Samaras.

Meanwhile, in a related development, Alekos Alavanos, the former leader of the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA), announced that he would be forming his own party soon. In a clear swipe at SYRIZA, currently headed by his former protegee Alexis Tsipras, Alavanos said that existing parties on the left of the political spectrum “do not express the principles of the Left.”

(Kathimerini.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Warning system could have discerned crisis


By Nick Malkoutzis - Kathimerini English Edition


BRUSSELS – Economic crises like the ones that have struck Greece, Ireland and Spain since last year could have been predicted much earlier if a wider range of macroeconomic factors rather than just fiscal ones had been examined, one of Europe’s leading economists said yesterday as the financial services provider Allianz SE and the Brussels-based think tank the Lisbon Council presented a study that evaluates and ranks the economies of the 16 eurozone countries based on a range of indicators.

“This type of mechanism might be an alert system to ensure balanced growth,” said Professor Michael Heise, chief economist of Allianz and the principal author of the study, which indicates that Greece was in worrying territory as early as 2006.

The study, known as Euro Monitor, ranks the 16 eurozone members according to 15 quantitative indicators in four key categories: fiscal sustainability; competitiveness and domestic demand; jobs, productivity and resource efficiency; and private and foreign debt. Unsurprisingly, Greece ranks as the worst-performing economy, below Ireland. Germany and Austria are the eurozone’s best performers.

“Ireland, alongside Greece, is one of the countries that today endangers the credibility of the euro area most,” says the report. Greece scores particularly badly on competitiveness and domestic demand as well as on debt. But Heise said it was encouraging that private debt in Greece was lower than in many other countries. “The debt situation in Greece is not as pronounced as it is in Ireland, Portugal or Spain, so there is a good chance Greece will get out of the current situation.”

The Euro Monitor aims to show how an extensive early-warning system for the eurozone could work and how monitoring of those economies can be both thorough and focused on achieving balanced growth. “Since the introduction of the euro, large imbalances have developed in the Union that threaten the credibility of the euro if not addressed decisively,” said Heise.

The study was made public ahead of a meeting of EU leaders in Brussels tomorrow and Friday when they are expected to approve a tightening of budget rules for member states and the introduction of sanctions for noncompliant countries. Allianz and the Lisbon Council back the tightening up of EU economic governance but suggest that macroeconomic balances, as identified in the Euro Monitor, should also be addressed.

“The responsibility for solving the current crisis remains with national governments and the underlying imbalances will take resolute action, decisive leadership and common determination to resolve,” said Heise. “The Euro Monitor will help highlight the progress made in rebalancing growth down the line.

“I would hope that some peer analysis like this would lead to some peer pressure on governments to reflect on the imbalances in their economies.”

 

[tommy271]

Dozens of stores closing in Piraeus


The consequences of the financial crisis are being felt more strongly in Piraeus, where the number of enterprises that have closed in the last year have more than trebled compared to the year before.

Dozens of stores, such as this one in central Piraeus, have been forced to close down in the last few months. According to data by the Piraeus tradesmen association, 56 shops had closed on September 1, 2009, which rose to 87 by June 3, 2010, to 103 by July 31 and exceeded 170 by October 22.

A recent study by research company ICAP showed that across Greece, 200 enterprises went bankrupt in the first six months of this year, while more than 1,000 sought protection from their lenders and suppliers in the same period.


(Kathimerini.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Bold proposals by the central bank governor

Provopoulos sees no leeway for more taxes


By Sotiris Nikas - Kathimerini



The Bank of Greece warned in a regular report yesterday that there is no scope for further tax hikes and suggested that the government reach two-thirds of its financial goals by stopping the waste of public funds and one-third of its targets by beating tax evasion.

In the Intermediary Report on Monetary Policy, the central bank’s governor, Giorgos Provopoulos, also cites six reasons why Greece will not go bankrupt, as such a development “is neither necessary nor desirable nor possible.”

In order to cut public spending, Provopoulos goes on to recommend 24 “indicative measures,” including shutting down various state corporations, suspending others, reducing civil servants and promoting certain institutional changes, such as a major change in university education funding.

He even proposes merging the state television channels from five (ET1, NET, ET3, ERT Digital and Parliament’s Vouli channel) into just two, adding that the levy paid by households to the state broadcaster via electricity bills should go instead toward repaying the country’s debt.

Other proposals include an increase in public transport fares, the use of public real estate to house state agencies and the utilization of all other properties as well as a strict financial policy by local authorities that should see them balance their books.

Tax evasion can be beaten with the introduction of a taxpayer serial number and the creation of a personal electronic file for everyone over the age of 18 years of age, argued Provopoulos. There was no immediate reaction by the government to the proposals, which would signify major policy changes in various domains.

The report also predicts that the recession for 2010 will come to 4 percent, and a rebound will come about with an emphasis on exports and the attraction of foreign direct investment, more flexibility in the labor market and the bolstering of competition in the product and service markets.

It also estimates that unemployment will exceed 12 percent this year and suggests that if those underemployed in the first half of 2010 were factored in, the jobless rate would reach 16.3 percent.


***
Le proposte della Banca Centrale Greca di cui abbiamo dato notizia.

 

[Jessica.]

Anche se scrivo raramente, vi leggo sempre e ringrazio tommy del costante e sistematico aggiornamento, direi in tempo reale.
Non voglio dare la colpa sempre alla speculazione, e non nemmeno se chiamarla speculazione, ma se guardiamo ai grafici e ad alcuni semplici indicatori come RSI e momentum, tutti i bond greci (come tantissimi altri del resto) erano in ipervenduto. Le prese di beneficio ci stanno tutte e sono solo occasioni per incrementare/rientrare. Ogni notizia sarebbe stata buona (rischio elezioni o raffreddore di Papandreou...).
Se fosse così, la discesa sarebbe solo agli inizi. Mi tengo pronto per rientrare un po' più in basso.
IMHO, ovviamente.

...semmai ipercomprato.. per il resto sono daccordo con te...

 

[pier_pat]

...semmai ipercomprato.. per il resto sono daccordo con te...

sì certo , sai com'è correvo in avanti con la fantasia e il desiderio

è un onore per me che tu sia d'accordo come me , ho sempre letto con molto interesse e apprezzato i tuoi interventi...

un chiarimento: sei d'accordo anche sull'idea che la discesa sia agli inizi?

ciao
pier

 

[gianfranco199]

Io ho comprato all'epoca 48 k, grecia 19 a 96.Nella mia ignoranza in materia, ho solo capito,che per tentare di recuperare,prima di un probabile default pilotato,devo fare trading, o vendere in perdita e rassegnarmi.
Dico una totale eresia?
Saluti

 

[Jessica.]

sì certo , sai com'è correvo in avanti con la fantasia e il desiderio

è un onore per me che tu sia d'accordo come me , ho sempre letto con molto interesse e apprezzato i tuoi interventi...

un chiarimento: sei d'accordo anche sull'idea che la discesa sia agli inizi?

ciao
pier

...ciao Pier, per come la vedo io, fino a meta' novembre, si rimane laterali con puntate verso la parte bassa del rettangolo.
Io seguo la '25 a cui ho associato (50) come supporto e (55) come resistenza..
Per il momento i 55 sono stati violati..(la quotazione era oltre) percio' puo' tranquillamente tornare sui (50).. lasciando per strada un buon 10%

L'uscita del premier sulle elezioni anticipate ( anche se mi e' sembrata piu' una provocazione) non mi e' piaciuta per niente.