Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[tommy271]

Greece: Intesa SP mulls to partner with Eurobank for Poland's Polbank-source



http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php...hl=it&q=greece&as_qdr=h&as_drrb=q&cf=all&tt=0 http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php...hl=it&q=greece&as_qdr=h&as_drrb=q&cf=all&tt=0 http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php...hl=it&q=greece&as_qdr=h&as_drrb=q&cf=all&tt=0 Paolo Arosio - 03.11.2010

Italy's largest retail bank Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP.MI) is examining a possible offer for Poland's Polbank in order to expand its East European operations, a financial source said on Tuesday.

On Monday, Greece's second largest bank EFG Eurobank (EFGr.AT) announced it was looking for a strategic partner to acquire a majority stake in its Polbank unit.

"The due diligence is nearly finished. The management board meeting on November 9 could be the first occasion" to decide on a formal offer, the source said, adding at the moment there was nothing formal.

Intesa Sanpaolo declined to comment.


Newspapers cite BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) and Raffeisen among five possible buyers for Polbank.

Source Reuters – Balkans.com



****
CORPORATE.

 

[tommy271]

Push to increase bank capital ratios reflects possibility of modest haircut

Rights issues from leading lenders may be in preparation for a drop in the value of Greek gov’t debt

By Dimitris Kontogiannis - Kathimerini English Edition




The prospect of early general elections spooked the market in Greek government bonds and stocks, reversing recent gains but did not scare another large local lender, Piraeus Bank, from going ahead with a sizable rights issue to the tune of 800 million euros.


This was yet another sign that Greek banks are bracing for the tougher economic times ahead and preparing for a possible restructuring of public debt as the European Union prepares a new permanent system to handle sovereign debt crises after 2013 where private bondholders will share part of the pain in the form of a bond haircut in a debt restructuring.


Following the example of National Bank of Greece, the country’s largest commercial bank, Piraeus Bank announced its intention last Friday to seek shareholder approval for a 800-million-euro rights issue, underwritten by four large international banks, namely Barclays Capital, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.


There is little doubt that the surging yield spreads of Greek bonds over the German equivalent on the prospect of early general elections raised by Prime Minister George Papandreou last Monday night made it tougher for the Greek bank. It should be noted that the 10-year Greek bond yields 10.6 percent at present, that is, 814 basis points over the similar German bund, compared to some 9.3 percent about 10 days ago.


Nevertheless, it is a positive sign that Piraeus Bank has decided to go ahead with a rights issue and also to seek approval for up to 250 million euros for a convertible bond issue that is not expected to be tapped for at least six months, following the completion of the rights issue.


The country’s fourth largest lender wants to boost its capital adequacy ratios in anticipation of a challenging economic environment marked by a further rise of loans in arrears. Analysts expect nonperforming loans as a percentage of total loans to reach 12 percent and a peak of even higher next year in Greece from an estimated 9.0 percent at the end of June and 7.7 percent at the end of 2009.


National Bank recently completed a share capital increase of 1.8 billion euros and aims to sell a 20 percent stake in its Turkish subsidiary Finansbank in the first quarter of 2011 to further boost its equity capital.
Executives from both Greek banks have communicated to the market that their capital-enhancing exercise is not related to M&A deals but aims at strengthening their capital adequacy ratios and help them obtain greater access on the interbank market.


It is well-known that local banks depend a lot on cheap European Central Bank (ECB) liquidity to fund their assets and would like to gradually disengage and reduce their dependency by tapping the interbank market, where one banks lends to the other for larger sums, even though this is a much more expensive exercise at this point.


Although no Greek banker that we know of would like to admit it in public, boosting a bank’s equity capital is also a precautionary move aimed at shielding it from a haircut on the value of Greek government bonds in the future.

It is estimated that Greek banks own more than 50 billion euros’ worth of Greek government bonds and most have been placed in the held-to-maturity portfolio. This means they do not have to mark to market their bonds on a daily basis, which would have had an impact on their profit-and-loss statement or their equity capital.

Moreover, Greek banks appear to have become more leveraged to local securities at the same time that other European Union banks and institutions are able to unload them onto the ECB, the International Monetary Fund and the other eurozone countries.


If this trend persists, local banks will be more sensitive to developments in the Greek bond market in 2012-2013 than other EU and foreign banks.
This is not good news at a time when Germany is pushing hard for the creation of a permanent mechanism to deal with future sovereign crises where private bondholders will also share the pain in the form of a haircut.


Of course, all bankers hope that Greece will be able to fund its borrowing needs on the markets by that time and there will be no need for the country to enter the permanent mechanism.


However, no one can be sure, especially when the existence of this mechanism itself may scare banks and others away from lending to weak countries, such as Greece, forcing them to sign on to continuing to fund their needs.


In this regard, local banks’ push to strengthen their capital adequacy ratios is a prudent move because it also takes into account the possibility of having to take a modest haircut in Greek government bonds in the next couple of years if German Chancellor Angela Merkel has her way with the new permanent mechanism.


(Kathimerini.gr)

***
Articolo di qualche giorno fa, riproposto perchè "vedeva giusto" ...

 

[tommy271]

Moody’s doesn’t see Greek default


The eurozone economies of Greece, Portugal and Ireland are likely to avoid sovereign bond defaults due to their strong domestic investor base of local banks and pension funds that will buy their governments’ debt even in times of stress, according to ratings agency Moody’s.


The US rating agency says investors should not worry about losses from bond defaults in these three so-called peripheral eurozone economies, considered the weakest in the 16-nation bloc.
Despite rising bond yields in the periphery in the past week because of growing fears over the health of these economies, the agency said an analysis of the 20 sovereign defaults since 1997 suggested they would ride out their problems.


“For a number of reasons, the prospect of a sovereign default in one of the major industrial countries is quite low,” said Daniel McGovern, managing director of Moody’s sovereign risk group.
Critically, this is due to the size and sophistication of these countries’ bond markets, which are relatively deep as they benefit from a strong base of domestic financial institutions.


Meanwhile, the Greek 10-year bond yield surged 17 basis points to 11 percent yesterday, after climbing as high as 11.1 percent, the highest level since September 23.
The Greek-German spread rose 20 bps to 842 bps, the highest since September 28. Irish bonds also fell, driving the extra yield investors demand to hold the securities instead of German debt to a record, on mounting concern the nation will struggle to reduce its budget deficit.
Irish 10-year bonds fell for a sixth consecutive day as Finance Minister Brian Lenihan tries to put together a 2011 budget by early December that will convince investors he can get the country’s finances in order.


(Kathimerini.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Revenues slip on costly delays

Foot-dragging in appointing deputy minister in charge of inflows, tax office heads contributes to missed target

By Prokopis Hatzinikolaou - Kathimerini


Athens’s inability to collect state revenues is becoming one of its economic policy’s weakest points, as income for 2010 looks set to fall short of the annual target by more than 1 billion euros.
The government’s delay in appointing a deputy finance minister to head revenue collection services is believed to have partially contributed to state revenues falling short of the mark.
Even though problems had been spotted at the beginning of the year, nothing was done to improve the situation by the country’s political leaders, who only decided to take action during the recent Cabinet reshuffle. Nine months were lost as the government struggled to collect income.
After September’s reshuffle, Prime Minister George Papandreou gave Deputy Finance Minister Dimitris Kouselas the task of jolting revenue collection back into action.
The drop in budget income is also due to government delays in appointing heads to tax offices for most of 2010.
Recent legislative changes introduced by the ruling Socialists contributed to this delay.
Finance Ministry sources believe that foot-dragging by the government in providing senior staff positions at the tax offices, along with staff cuts implemented as part of state spending cuts, have also resulted in the current backlog of 200,000 yet-to-be-processed tax returns.
At the same time, a number of tax office employees launched go-slow action in order to protest against the government’s decision to slash their benefits.
Additionally, the government failed to reorganize the tax offices during the year, further worsening the problems in these state departments.
A private company submitted a study to the Finance Ministry yesterday as to how it can become more efficient through the reorganization of its operations but it is not clear whether the proposals will be adopted.
Making these problems worse are the poor ties between Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou and the general secretary at the Finance Ministry, Dimitris Georgakopoulos.

(Kathimerini.gr)

 

[Imark]

Continuiamo a seguire day by day con le chiusure di ieri sera...

Intanto un'opinione sull'operato della Merkel: se, grazie ed esclusivamente in virtù delle pressioni dei tedeschi, i politici italiani saranno costretti a ridurre alcune mangiatoie partitiche (ad es. ad abolire le province, a ridimensionare il peso della burocrazia sui cittadini e sulle imprese ecc. ecc.) alla Merkel andrà intestata qualche strada e qualche piazza nelle città di questo paese, visto che da soli, in 70 anni di governi democratici di vari colori, mi pare che non siamo stati capaci di migliorare granché le cose, anzi...

Veniamo a noi. Anche ieri debolezza, con prezzi che esprimono una tendenza all'appiattimento della curva su valori alti (con rendimenti attorno all'11,5%) quanto meno sulla parte intermedia della curva (dal 2013 al 2019)... più oltre, i rendimenti scendono, fino ad assestarsi poco sotto l'8,9% sulla parte lunghissima della curva (2037-2040) rispetto alla quale entrano in gioco aspettative su haircut nella eventuale ipotesi la Grecia fosse costretta a ristrutturare.

Anche su questa parte della curva, tuttavia, ieri è tornata a vedersi volatilità sui prezzi, che hanno accusato un calo nell'ordine del punto e mezzo circa. Più saldi i GGBei, che continuano a tenere su valori leggermente inferiori a quelli del giorno precedente.

il 2013 - 85,15 (BBML) 85,25 (Xtrakter);
il 2014 - 81,55 (BBML) 81,67 (Xtrakter);
il 2015 - 80,60 (BBML) 81,01 (Xtrakter);
il 2016 - 68,16 (BBML) 68,16 (Xtrakter);
il 2017 - 67,36 (BBML) 67,41 (Xtrakter);
il 2018 - 67,00 (BBML) 66,87 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6% 72,40 (BBML) 72,85 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6.5% 74,59 (BBML) 74,58 (Xtrakter);
il 2022 - 71,32 (BBML) 71,36 (Xtrakter);
il 2024 - 62,32 (BBML) 62,44 (Xtrakter);
il 2026 - 64,31 (BBML) 64,26 (Xtrakter);
il 2037 - 55,84 (BBML) 56,00 (Xtrakter);
il 2040 - 55,90 (BBML) 55,93 (Xtrakter);

GGBei 2025 - 52,91 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
GGBei 2030 - 50,03 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter

Ieri...

Il registro resta quello degli ultimi giorni: la curva dei rendimenti fa il picco nel 2013-2014 (siamo oramai attorno al 12% lordo) per poi declinare leggermente fino al 2019 (rendimento attorno all'11,2% lordo) e quindi scendere con inclinazione più accentuata con il 2024 e 2026 già sotto il 10% lordo e giungere ai titoli 2037-2040 (e qui siamo attorno ad un 8,2% lordo) sui quali, ai prezzi correnti (56/100) sembra scommettersi sull'entità di un eventuale taglio piuttosto che in termini di rendimento a scadenza.

Cali di prezzo - nell'ordine mediamente di uno 0,7-0,8% - si sono registrati su tutte le scadenze, tranne sui titoli lunghissimi, che restano stazionari, come anche i GGBei

il 2013 - 84,65 (BBML) 84,61 (Xtrakter);
il 2014 - 80,89 (BBML) 80,97 (Xtrakter);
il 2015 - 80,06 (BBML) 80,15 (Xtrakter);
il 2016 - 67,55 (BBML) 67,67 (Xtrakter);
il 2017 - 66,63 (BBML) 66,83 (Xtrakter);
il 2018 - 66,14 (BBML) 66,30 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6% 71,84 (BBML) 72,14 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6.5% 73,74 (BBML) 74,12 (Xtrakter);
il 2022 - 71,20 (BBML) 71,15 (Xtrakter);
il 2024 - 62,15 (BBML) 62,45 (Xtrakter);
il 2026 - 64,19 (BBML) 64,16 (Xtrakter);
il 2037 - 55,95 (BBML) 56,00 (Xtrakter);
il 2040 - 55,84 (BBML) 55,99 (Xtrakter);

GGBei 2025 - 52,48 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
GGBei 2030 - 49,93 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter

 

[tommy271]

Fewer loans offered, bar shipping


Greek credit expansion slowed in September to 1.2 percent year-on-year from 1.4 percent in August, as the pace at which households and consumers signed up for new loans remained marginally in positive territory, Bank of Greece (BoG) data showed yesterday.


BoG, the country’s central bank, said total outstanding loans at the end of September reached 261.5 billion euros, versus 262.08 billion in August.
“This development exclusively reflects the deceleration in the annual growth rate of credit to individuals and private nonprofit institutions, whereas the annual growth rate of credit to enterprises remains unchanged,” the bank said in a statement.


Households and consumer debt was at 119.1 billion euros at the end of September, growing by an annual pace of 0.1 percent, versus 0.6 percent in August and 1 percent in July.
Enterprises owed 127 billion in September, growing by an annual rate of 2.2 percent, unchanged from the previous month.


Credit provided to shipping, one of the country’s main income earners, was among the few bright spots showing growth.
Outstanding credit in the shipping industry reached 17.7 billion euros, expanding by 8.6 percent in September versus 4.5 percent in August and 4 percent in December last year.


(Kathimerini.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Schaeuble Says Germany Won’t Spare Bondholders

November 03, 2010, 5:27 AM EDT

By Tony Czuczka and Mark Deen
(Adds Economy Minister Bruederle comment in fifth paragraph, updates bonds, euro in sixth.)




Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the euro’s stability depends on making investors pay for future debt crises, brushing aside warnings that Germany’s demands are hurting Europe’s most indebted countries.
Schaeuble’s comments underscore Chancellor Angela Merkel’s push to shield German taxpayers from the risk of bailing out other European countries as she steps up efforts to reshape debt and deficit rules for the euro. EU leaders are due to set “key features” of a permanent debt-crisis mechanism in December after agreeing in principle last week, Schaeuble said.

“Participation of the private sector is a central element of the mechanism,” Schaeuble said in a speech at the Sorbonne University in Paris late yesterday. “I would like to remind those who still have problems with such a crisis resolution mechanism that the currency union was never designed as a model for the enrichment of financial speculators.”

German attempts to put their stamp on the rule overhaul risks alienating European officials including Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, who are concerned that telling bond investors they will have to shoulder a greater part of any future bailout will spook traders at a time when Ireland and Portugal are struggling to cut their budget deficits.
“Germany must support this instrument,” Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle said in an interview today. Otherwise, “markets can speculate with bonds without risk.”

Irish Bonds Fall

Irish bonds fell for a seventh day, sending the 10-year yield to a euro-era record. Greek bonds were little changed after a run of seven straight declines, the longest losing streak since April. The euro was little changed at $1.4033 at 9:56 a.m. Frankfurt time.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told EU leaders last week he’s concerned that talk of a debt restructuring model from 2013 will hurt the bonds of the euro- region’s so-called peripheral nations, according to an EU official familiar with the discussions.

Greece’s attempt to emerge from the crisis is currently “at its most critical point,” Prime Minister George Papandreou said yesterday, according to an e-mailed transcript of a speech. The budget shortfall in 2009 is “expected to reach 15 percent or more,” or at least five times the EU limit.

Bailout Fund

EU leaders on Oct. 29 backed Merkel’s call for a rewrite of European treaties to create the permanent debt-crisis mechanism. The EU now has a window to devise permanent safeguards for “a lastingly strong and stable euro,” after setting up a 110 billion-euro ($154 billion) bailout for Greece and a temporary 750 billion-euro fund to backstop the currency, Schaeuble said.

Merkel, whose year-old governing coalition trails the opposition in polls, is turning her tough stance on euro-area debt and deficit violators into a theme as she faces six state elections next year.

Her aim is to have governments keep the upper hand in what she called “a battle of the politicians against the markets” in May. “We have to think of our population, which justifiably doesn’t want the taxpayer to always assume all the risk,” she said on Oct. 29. Schaeuble warned against setting off “a dangerous social time bomb” of popular dissatisfaction if taxpayers are left to shoulder the burden alone.

‘More Bite’

The proposed EU measures will yield rules with “more bite” to protect the euro, Merkel said yesterday in a speech in Bruges, Belgium. Along with steps to keep EU members from running up excessive debt, a crisis mechanism enshrined in EU treaties is necessary for the longer term, she said.

“Germany’s plans for burden-sharing in the event of a euro-zone default and the re-statement of the no-bailout law present challenges to the debt market,” Steve Barrow, head of research for Group-of-10 currencies at Standard Bank Plc, said in a note. “We suspect that 10-year Greek spread over Germany will scale 1,000 basis points and Ireland 500 basis points, probably before the end of the year.”

The Greek-German yield spread was little changed at 832 basis points as of 8:39 a.m. in London. The yield on Irish 10- year bonds against German bunds, the euro region’s benchmark, gained 10 basis points to 493 basis points, the most since Bloomberg began collecting the data in 1991.

Merkel said on Oct. 29 that she and Trichet differed on the level of risk the rescue mechanism for indebted euro-area countries means for those government’s bonds. “I don’t quite share Jean-Claude Trichet’s concern,” she said.
In Bruges, Merkel said steps to keep EU members from running up excessive debt include sanctions that are brought in quicker and earlier, as well as closer EU-wide coordination on economic policy.

The debt mechanism intended to replace the euro fund when it expires in three years “needs a clear legal basis” in EU treaties, she said.

 

[tommy271]

Athens Stocks Inch Upwards



Greek market posts mild gains on Wednesday.

“The Athens market performed a textbook ascending reaction yesterday, following the significant drop (c.8.2%) that preceded it. In essence, the GI΄s technical behavior was very promising as it retreated merely, only to provide investors with an optimum entry point. As the momentum of foreign markets continues to be bullish, we expect the GI to trade in the same levels today, gradually trying to regain some of the notable ground lost during last week. In this context, we anticipate the Athens market to move in the region of the 1,510 - 1,530 units today, which consist the GI΄s intraday pivot point and 1st resistance level respectively,” Pegasus Securities says in its morning report.

“Local authority (i.e. municipal) elections take place in Greece on Sunday. We see political instability being unlikely but the market could misinterpret any major surprise. We expect some volatility in the short term with international markets affecting the ASE’s course,” Kyprou Securities notes, with Marfin Analysis expecting a session of similar characteristics and relatively thin volumes should be awaited. “Any interest should be directed towards banking sector.”

Across the board, the General Index gains 0.33% at 1,527.8, on a total turnover of 14.84 mil. euro.

(Capital.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Spread/bund in mattinata entro oscillazioni usuali, sempre sui massimi di questi giorni.
I problemi derivano quasi esclusivamente da decisioni politiche.
Il percorso è attentamente moitorato dalla Troika che stilerà, verso metà novembre, il rapporto per dare il via libera alla tranche di dicembre. Al momento non si rilevano difficoltà particolari.

 

[tommy271]

Merkel Debt Plan Provokes Selloff Trichet Foresaw: Euro Credit

November 03, 2010, 7:16 AM EDT

By Paul Dobson

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel is once again provoking a selloff in the bonds of the region’s most indebted nations.
After stalling European Union efforts to rescue Greece in the first four months of this year, Merkel yesterday stepped up her push to make bondholders pay toward any future bailout of a euro nation. Her proposal helped worsen a selloff in the bonds of the bloc’s so-called peripheral nations. The extra yield that investors demand to hold Irish debt over German bunds rose to a record and the spreads on Greek and Portuguese debt widened.

“Merkel wants to reassure voters Germany won’t underwrite the obligations of the rest of Europe,” said Tom Sartain, a fund manager at London-based Schroders Plc, which has $245 billion under management and doesn’t own Greek, Irish or Portuguese debt. “Talk of burden sharing is the opposite of what bond holders want to hear. The price action vindicates our decision not to hold these bonds.”

Traders have dumped Irish and Portuguese bonds since EU leaders on Oct. 29 endorsed Merkel’s push for a permanent debt- crisis mechanism, renewing speculation that those countries may follow Greece in seeking a bailout as they struggle to cut budget deficits.

The premium on Irish 10-year bonds over bunds rose 14 basis points to 497 basis points as of 10:47 a.m. in London. Portugal’s spread widened 5 basis points to 382 basis points. The Greek spread reached 844 basis points yesterday, the most in more than a month.

Trichet Warning

Merkel’s push caused apprehension among some officials even before this week’s selloff. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told EU leaders he’s concerned that talk of a debt restructuring mechanism would hurt the bonds of peripheral euro nations, according to an EU official familiar with the talks.

“I’m not surprised” that the proposal has “moved Greek and Irish spreads,” said Toby Nangle, director of asset allocation at London-based Baring Asset Management, who helps oversee about $46 billion for clients and owned six-month Greek debt until last month. “These are movements toward private- sector burden-sharing and markets tend not to like that.”

EU leaders have yet to agree on the shape of any new mechanism, which would replace the 750 billion-euro ($1.1 trillion) fund set up in May after it expires in 2013. EU leaders set a December deadline for the European Commission to sketch out how it might work, how to treat private bondholders and whether to involve the International Monetary Fund. Spain has already said that provisions to reschedule or cancel some debts would expose its bond to selling pressure.

Debt Reality

“The more you talk about restructuring debt, the harder it is to obtain debt,” Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said in an interview with Dublin-based RTE television yesterday. “That is the reality.”
Merkel’s stance echoes her approach to Greece earlier this year when she initially refused to rush to its aid, sparking speculation about the euro region’s ability to handle the worst crisis in its history. While billionaire George Soros at the time said her strategy risked pushing Greece into a “death circle,” Merkel said the “tough” terms of the country’s eventual bailout vindicated her policy.

The new push comes as her Christian Democrat party loses support to the Social Democrats, with an Oct. 27 Forsa poll putting the opposition 12 percentage points ahead of her CDU- Free Democrat government. The government also faces regional elections from March that involve 25 percent of the population.

Time Bomb?

Leaving taxpayers to shoulder the burden of bailouts may set off “a dangerous social time bomb” of popular dissatisfaction, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in a speech late yesterday. “The currency union was never designed as a model for the enrichment of financial speculators.”

Merkel’s government was the biggest contributor to April’s Greek bailout and would also shoulder the lion’s share of any rescue under the current temporary backstop.

“These things are more about politics than economics,” said Paul Lambert, head of the global macro team at Polar Capital Holdings Plc in London. “It’s clear that for some economies in Europe it’s going to be incredibly difficult to make the fiscal adjustments needed on their own. It’s either going to mean Germany picking up the tab, or countries in Europe being cut loose.”

The German proposals are hurting Portuguese debt even after the nation’s government and biggest opposition party reached an agreement Oct. 29 on next year’s budget. The country’s bonds are the third-worst performing government debt securities this year, down 5.7 percent, according to indexes compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies.

Irish Spread

Only Greece, with a 16 percent decline, and Ireland, with a 6.9 percent drop, fared worse. German bonds earned more than 8.2 percent this year.
The spread on Irish bonds has doubled in the past three months as the government tries to cut its deficit in the face of bank-bailout costs that may reach 50 billion euros. The country’s 10-year bond yesterday yielded 7.56 percent today, the most since 1996.

“The German government is following what the market is telling it,” said Nicola Marinelli, a portfolio manager at Glendevon King Ltd. in London, which oversees $200 million in assts. “The Greek government, and probably the Irish and Portuguese, will need to be bailed out. If you sense that it’s inevitable then it’s better to have something to manage that than complete chaos.”

(Bloomberg)