tommy271
Forumer storico
Qui trovate l'intervista di Schauble in inglese:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,727801,00.html
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,727801,00.html
Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (4 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
tommy271
Forumer storico
Bond euro in rialzo, intertono calo su dato occupazione Usa
lunedì 8 novembre 2010 08:43
LONDRA, 8 novembre (Reuters) - I titoli di stato tedeschi
hanno aperto in rialzo stamane con un rimbalzo dopo il calo di
venerdì guidato da un dato sull'occupazione Usa migliore delle
attese.
"Stiamo semplicemente avanzando un po' dopo i dati di
venerdì... abbiamo notizie belle e brutte dalla parte della zona
euro a più alto rendimento" ha detto un dealer di Londra.
Potrebbe registrare un rimbalzo anche il debito greco dopo
l'esito positivo per il partito socialista alle elezioni locali.
Il primo ministro greco George Papandreou ha escluso di
indire elezioni anticipate dopo che il suo partito ha ottenuto
l'appoggio della maggior parte delle regioni, nelle elezioni
locali, indicando la possibilità andare avanti nel suo programma
di austerità concordato col Fmi. Le prime stime indicano il
partito socialista, il Pasok, in vantaggio in sette regioni su
13, con il centro-destra alla guida nelle restanti, sebbene il
confronto in alcune aree sia stato molto serrato lasciando
spazio a un probabile ballottaggio domenica prossima.
Qualche problema potrebbe invece arrivare dalla Spagna.
"Alcuni dicono che i problemi della Spagna stanno
peggiorando, quindi non è detto che le cose saranno più facili
per i periferici oggi" ha detto il dealer.
lunedì 8 novembre 2010 08:43
LONDRA, 8 novembre (Reuters) - I titoli di stato tedeschi
hanno aperto in rialzo stamane con un rimbalzo dopo il calo di
venerdì guidato da un dato sull'occupazione Usa migliore delle
attese.
"Stiamo semplicemente avanzando un po' dopo i dati di
venerdì... abbiamo notizie belle e brutte dalla parte della zona
euro a più alto rendimento" ha detto un dealer di Londra.
Potrebbe registrare un rimbalzo anche il debito greco dopo
l'esito positivo per il partito socialista alle elezioni locali.
Il primo ministro greco George Papandreou ha escluso di
indire elezioni anticipate dopo che il suo partito ha ottenuto
l'appoggio della maggior parte delle regioni, nelle elezioni
locali, indicando la possibilità andare avanti nel suo programma
di austerità concordato col Fmi. Le prime stime indicano il
partito socialista, il Pasok, in vantaggio in sette regioni su
13, con il centro-destra alla guida nelle restanti, sebbene il
confronto in alcune aree sia stato molto serrato lasciando
spazio a un probabile ballottaggio domenica prossima.
Qualche problema potrebbe invece arrivare dalla Spagna.
"Alcuni dicono che i problemi della Spagna stanno
peggiorando, quindi non è detto che le cose saranno più facili
per i periferici oggi" ha detto il dealer.
tommy271
Forumer storico
10-Year Greek/German Yield Spread 31 BPs Tighter At 873 BPs
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The extra premium investors demand to hold Greek 10-year sovereign bonds over the benchmark German bund fell Monday, after the country's ruling Socialists won local elections in a majority of Greece's 13 electoral regions.
At 0905 GMT, the yield spread between Greek 10-year sovereign bonds and 10-year bunds had fallen to 873 basis points, down from 904 basis points at 0807 GMT.
The result "might help to calm markets a touch as it reduces the prospect of a snap general election," Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income research at Evolution Securities, said in a note.
The polls were also widely seen as a referendum on the government's harsh, three-year austerity program.
***
Prima inversione di tendenza ... incrociamo le dita.
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The extra premium investors demand to hold Greek 10-year sovereign bonds over the benchmark German bund fell Monday, after the country's ruling Socialists won local elections in a majority of Greece's 13 electoral regions.
At 0905 GMT, the yield spread between Greek 10-year sovereign bonds and 10-year bunds had fallen to 873 basis points, down from 904 basis points at 0807 GMT.
The result "might help to calm markets a touch as it reduces the prospect of a snap general election," Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income research at Evolution Securities, said in a note.
The polls were also widely seen as a referendum on the government's harsh, three-year austerity program.
***
Prima inversione di tendenza ... incrociamo le dita.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Attention turns to second round of local gov't elections next Sunday
ANA-MPA/With attention now focused on next Sunday's second-round local administration elections, the political parties have begun a flurry of deliberations, after failure to elect regional authority leaders in 12 of the country's 13 regions and mayors in 221 of Greece's 325 municipalities.
As at 8:00 a.m. Monday, the only Region that had elected a regional authority leader in the first round of elections yesterday (Sunday) is that of the Southern Aegean, with the ruling PASOK-backed candidate Ioannis Mahairidis amassing 50.72 percent against main opposition New Democracy (ND) backed candidate Haralambos Kokkinos with 31.15 percent.
According to early results on Monday morning, PASOK appeared to remain the top political power, while ND has limited its percentage difference with PASOK and the Communist Party of Greece (KKE) has improved its showing.
In the remaining 12 Regions, PASOK-backed candidates or candidates backed by a collaboration between PASOK and other parties were leading in six Regions, including Attica (wider Athens area), where Yiannis Sgouros will face if off in the second round with ND-backed Vassilis Kikilias. Candidates backed by ND and/or other parties were leading in the other six Regions.
The big winner of the election, however, was abstention, which stood above 40 percent average.
Winners also did not emerge in many of the country's major cities and the result will be decided in next Sunday's repeat election, with ND-backed incumbent mayor Nikitas Kaklamanis leading in Athens with 35.03 percent against PASOK-backed George Kaminis with 28.54 percent; PASOK-backed Yiannis Michas leading with 30.46 percent over ND-backed Vassilis Michaloliakos with 23.02 percent in Piraeus, and ND-backed Costas Gioulekas with 38.67 percent leading over PASOK-backed Ioannis Boutaris with 32.95 percent in Thessaloniki.
(ana.gr)
ANA-MPA/With attention now focused on next Sunday's second-round local administration elections, the political parties have begun a flurry of deliberations, after failure to elect regional authority leaders in 12 of the country's 13 regions and mayors in 221 of Greece's 325 municipalities.
As at 8:00 a.m. Monday, the only Region that had elected a regional authority leader in the first round of elections yesterday (Sunday) is that of the Southern Aegean, with the ruling PASOK-backed candidate Ioannis Mahairidis amassing 50.72 percent against main opposition New Democracy (ND) backed candidate Haralambos Kokkinos with 31.15 percent.
According to early results on Monday morning, PASOK appeared to remain the top political power, while ND has limited its percentage difference with PASOK and the Communist Party of Greece (KKE) has improved its showing.
In the remaining 12 Regions, PASOK-backed candidates or candidates backed by a collaboration between PASOK and other parties were leading in six Regions, including Attica (wider Athens area), where Yiannis Sgouros will face if off in the second round with ND-backed Vassilis Kikilias. Candidates backed by ND and/or other parties were leading in the other six Regions.
The big winner of the election, however, was abstention, which stood above 40 percent average.
Winners also did not emerge in many of the country's major cities and the result will be decided in next Sunday's repeat election, with ND-backed incumbent mayor Nikitas Kaklamanis leading in Athens with 35.03 percent against PASOK-backed George Kaminis with 28.54 percent; PASOK-backed Yiannis Michas leading with 30.46 percent over ND-backed Vassilis Michaloliakos with 23.02 percent in Piraeus, and ND-backed Costas Gioulekas with 38.67 percent leading over PASOK-backed Ioannis Boutaris with 32.95 percent in Thessaloniki.
(ana.gr)
tommy271
Forumer storico
'PASOK deeply wounded'
ANA-MPA/Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS) leader George Karatzaferis said in the early hours of Monday that ruling PASOK remains the first political force in the country, but deeply wounded, while main opposition New Democracy (ND) had failed to reach the "defeat percentages of 2009" (general elections), commenting on early results from Sunday's local administration elections throughout Greece.
Karatzaferis further opined that his own party had maintained its strength or increased its showing in certain Regions, and indirectly called on ND for collaboration with LAOS in the immediate future.
He said that wherever LAOS had collaborated with ND in Sunday's election, the jointly-backed candidates had come out in first place.
Now it was time to look even beyond the second round of local government elections this coming Sunday, and reiterated his call for an ecumenical government.
(ana.gr)
ANA-MPA/Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS) leader George Karatzaferis said in the early hours of Monday that ruling PASOK remains the first political force in the country, but deeply wounded, while main opposition New Democracy (ND) had failed to reach the "defeat percentages of 2009" (general elections), commenting on early results from Sunday's local administration elections throughout Greece.
Karatzaferis further opined that his own party had maintained its strength or increased its showing in certain Regions, and indirectly called on ND for collaboration with LAOS in the immediate future.
He said that wherever LAOS had collaborated with ND in Sunday's election, the jointly-backed candidates had come out in first place.
Now it was time to look even beyond the second round of local government elections this coming Sunday, and reiterated his call for an ecumenical government.
(ana.gr)
tommy271
Forumer storico
Euro-Zone CDS Mostly Wider
By Mark Brown
Credit default swaps written on peripheral euro-zone sovereign borrowers were mostly wider early Monday, although the cost of insuring Greek sovereign debt fell after the ruling Socialists won local elections in a majority of Greece’s 13 electoral regions.
Greece’s five-year sovereign CDS were five basis points tighter at 855 to 865 basis points, according to one trading desk. But Ireland’s five-year sovereign CDS widened 17.5 basis points to 605 to 615 basis points, Portugal was 9.5 basis points wider at 457 to 467 basis points, and Spain was 7.5 basis points wider at 257 to 262 basis points.
The moves in CDS mirrored those in the cash market, where the yield spread between Greek 10-year bonds and the benchmark German bund fell, but yield spreads between Irish, Portuguese and Spanish 10-year bonds and bunds all rose.
Peripheral euro-zone sovereign bond markets were volatile last week, on continuing worries about the ability of some governments to pass deficit-cutting budgets, and on the impact that these will have on their economies and on sovereign finances. CDS are derivatives that function like a default insurance contract for debt. If a borrower defaults, the protection seller compensates the buyer. Buyers may be protecting investments, or making bearish bets against borrowers.
(dal Blog del Wall Street Journal)
***
Anche sui CDS una prima inversione di tendenza.
By Mark Brown
Credit default swaps written on peripheral euro-zone sovereign borrowers were mostly wider early Monday, although the cost of insuring Greek sovereign debt fell after the ruling Socialists won local elections in a majority of Greece’s 13 electoral regions.
Greece’s five-year sovereign CDS were five basis points tighter at 855 to 865 basis points, according to one trading desk. But Ireland’s five-year sovereign CDS widened 17.5 basis points to 605 to 615 basis points, Portugal was 9.5 basis points wider at 457 to 467 basis points, and Spain was 7.5 basis points wider at 257 to 262 basis points.
The moves in CDS mirrored those in the cash market, where the yield spread between Greek 10-year bonds and the benchmark German bund fell, but yield spreads between Irish, Portuguese and Spanish 10-year bonds and bunds all rose.
Peripheral euro-zone sovereign bond markets were volatile last week, on continuing worries about the ability of some governments to pass deficit-cutting budgets, and on the impact that these will have on their economies and on sovereign finances. CDS are derivatives that function like a default insurance contract for debt. If a borrower defaults, the protection seller compensates the buyer. Buyers may be protecting investments, or making bearish bets against borrowers.
(dal Blog del Wall Street Journal)
***
Anche sui CDS una prima inversione di tendenza.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Su Spread e CDS si tratta di auspicati rimbalzi che potranno trovare conferma domani all'asta trimestrale dei Bot/Greek.
Rammento però che la campagna elettorale termina domenica con i ballottaggi.
Il meccanismo è simile al nostro, vincerà chi arriverà primo.
La Borsa di Atene tiene ancora sulla buona apertura. Ora a 1545 a +2,49. Buoni volumi a circa 45 MLN.
Rammento però che la campagna elettorale termina domenica con i ballottaggi.
Il meccanismo è simile al nostro, vincerà chi arriverà primo.
La Borsa di Atene tiene ancora sulla buona apertura. Ora a 1545 a +2,49. Buoni volumi a circa 45 MLN.
bosmeld
Forumer storico
questo é il problema.
ancora non c'é la certezza della vittoria, se perdono i ballottaggi, i tds potrebbero prendere ancora una botta...
tommy271
Forumer storico
Sappiamo che il Pasok è rimasto ancora il primo partito, sappiamo che ai ballottaggi arrivano i primi due contendenti (in questo caso destra e sinistra), credo che difficilmente l'opposizione di sinistra al Pasok voterà un candidato della destra. Al limite si asterrà.
La partita grossa si gioca in Attica dove vota il 40% degli aventi diritto.
Anche qui Pasok Vs ND: al terzo posto è arrivato un dissidente esplulso dal Pasok.
Il suo elettorato chi credi voterà?
Comunque d'accordo con te: probabilità di alta volatilità... per chi fa trading stretto può giocare sui rimbalzi.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Greece dodges bullet, but sovereign jitters remain
Portugal, Ireland remain in spotlight
By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) — A strong showing by Greece’s ruling Panhellenic Socialist Movement party, or PASOK, in local elections helped calm nervous European debt markets on Monday, but fears over Portugal and Ireland mean more turmoil is likely to follow, strategists said.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou late Sunday said the local election results, which saw his PASOK party holding its ground, amounted to an endorsement of the government’s controversial deficit cuts. Papandreou last week had said that a setback for his party in the local contests could lead him to dissolve parliament and call a snap general election.
“In our view, political stability through 2013 is [crucial] for the success of the fiscal and structural-adjustment program,” said Antonio Garcia Pascual, economist at Barclays Capital. “Therefore, we consider Papandreou’s decision” positive for the success of the 110 billion euro ($154.5 billion) Greek rescue plan put in place last spring by the International Monetary Fund and the European Union.
Greek, Portuguese and Irish government bonds were hammered last week, with the yield premium demanded by investors to hold Irish debt over benchmark German bunds hitting record levels.
“A new sovereign bond crisis is upon us,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y., in a note to clients. “Defaults on sovereign debts of Greece and Ireland — and a potential failure of the banking sector in Ireland are widely expected. The consequence would likely be another financial crisis on the same scale as the Lehman Brothers failure.”
While Greece is effectively out of the credit markets after tapping the rescue package, rising Irish and Portuguese borrowing costs have fueled speculation that one or both nations may eventually be forced to tap the €750 billion rescue mechanism put in place by the EU and IMF in June.
The yield on 10-year Greek government bonds fell by around 30 basis points, or 0.3 percentage point, to 11% on Monday morning, strategists said, but noted that trade in Greek debt remains very thin. The move brought the yield premium demanded by investors to hold 10-year Greek debt over German bunds down to around 8.6 percentage points.
The yield on 10-year Portuguese bonds, meanwhile, was little changed at 6.34%, around 3.96 percentage points above Germany. The 10-year Irish yield stood near 7.47%, falling slightly and bringing the yield premium versus Germany down to around 5.07 percentage points after hitting a record level last week.
“The focus is now switching to Portugal and Ireland,” said Elwin de Groot, fixed-income strategist at Rabobank in Utrecht, Netherlands.
Uncertainty over the ability of Portugal’s minority government to meet its deficit-reduction goals has contributed to pressure on the nation’s bonds, despite passage last week of additional spending cuts. Irish debt sold off sharply last week.
Sovereign-debt yields rose sharply last week, with Ireland under particular pressure after additional deficit-reduction measures appeared to fail to assure investors the government can meet its deficit-reduction targets as it wrestles with the rising cost of bailing out the nation’s banking sector.
Worries deepening austerity measures could cripple an economic recovery have contributed to the pressure on bonds, economists said.
“The current tension on Ireland will not likely leave the market in the short term; Portugal might also suffer as in the past it has been exposed to spillovers from Ireland,” said Elia Lattuga, fixed-income strategist at UniCredit Bank in Milan.
“Greece remains very volatile, it might be profitable to trade on momentum but the risk of a swing in market mood is quite high,” Lattuga said. “On the contrary, as tensions on [the] periphery persist, core countries are likely to attract good demand.”
Uncertainty over the shape of the European rescue package amid calls by Germany for an orderly restructuring mechanism in the event of future Greek-style crises has also contributed to uncertainty, de Groot said.
Volatility and wide yield spreads are likely to remain a feature of the market in the near term, de Groot said.
The longer-term view depends on whether or not an investor believes European authorities will allow a default.
“If you believe the political will exists [to prevent defaults] then the yield levels are obviously attractive,” he said.
William L. Watts is a reporter for MarketWatch in London.
Greece dodges bullet, but sovereign jitters remain - MarketWatch
Portugal, Ireland remain in spotlight
By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) — A strong showing by Greece’s ruling Panhellenic Socialist Movement party, or PASOK, in local elections helped calm nervous European debt markets on Monday, but fears over Portugal and Ireland mean more turmoil is likely to follow, strategists said.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou late Sunday said the local election results, which saw his PASOK party holding its ground, amounted to an endorsement of the government’s controversial deficit cuts. Papandreou last week had said that a setback for his party in the local contests could lead him to dissolve parliament and call a snap general election.
“In our view, political stability through 2013 is [crucial] for the success of the fiscal and structural-adjustment program,” said Antonio Garcia Pascual, economist at Barclays Capital. “Therefore, we consider Papandreou’s decision” positive for the success of the 110 billion euro ($154.5 billion) Greek rescue plan put in place last spring by the International Monetary Fund and the European Union.
Greek, Portuguese and Irish government bonds were hammered last week, with the yield premium demanded by investors to hold Irish debt over benchmark German bunds hitting record levels.
“A new sovereign bond crisis is upon us,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y., in a note to clients. “Defaults on sovereign debts of Greece and Ireland — and a potential failure of the banking sector in Ireland are widely expected. The consequence would likely be another financial crisis on the same scale as the Lehman Brothers failure.”
While Greece is effectively out of the credit markets after tapping the rescue package, rising Irish and Portuguese borrowing costs have fueled speculation that one or both nations may eventually be forced to tap the €750 billion rescue mechanism put in place by the EU and IMF in June.
The yield on 10-year Greek government bonds fell by around 30 basis points, or 0.3 percentage point, to 11% on Monday morning, strategists said, but noted that trade in Greek debt remains very thin. The move brought the yield premium demanded by investors to hold 10-year Greek debt over German bunds down to around 8.6 percentage points.
The yield on 10-year Portuguese bonds, meanwhile, was little changed at 6.34%, around 3.96 percentage points above Germany. The 10-year Irish yield stood near 7.47%, falling slightly and bringing the yield premium versus Germany down to around 5.07 percentage points after hitting a record level last week.
“The focus is now switching to Portugal and Ireland,” said Elwin de Groot, fixed-income strategist at Rabobank in Utrecht, Netherlands.
Uncertainty over the ability of Portugal’s minority government to meet its deficit-reduction goals has contributed to pressure on the nation’s bonds, despite passage last week of additional spending cuts. Irish debt sold off sharply last week.
Sovereign-debt yields rose sharply last week, with Ireland under particular pressure after additional deficit-reduction measures appeared to fail to assure investors the government can meet its deficit-reduction targets as it wrestles with the rising cost of bailing out the nation’s banking sector.
Worries deepening austerity measures could cripple an economic recovery have contributed to the pressure on bonds, economists said.
“The current tension on Ireland will not likely leave the market in the short term; Portugal might also suffer as in the past it has been exposed to spillovers from Ireland,” said Elia Lattuga, fixed-income strategist at UniCredit Bank in Milan.
“Greece remains very volatile, it might be profitable to trade on momentum but the risk of a swing in market mood is quite high,” Lattuga said. “On the contrary, as tensions on [the] periphery persist, core countries are likely to attract good demand.”
Uncertainty over the shape of the European rescue package amid calls by Germany for an orderly restructuring mechanism in the event of future Greek-style crises has also contributed to uncertainty, de Groot said.
Volatility and wide yield spreads are likely to remain a feature of the market in the near term, de Groot said.
The longer-term view depends on whether or not an investor believes European authorities will allow a default.
“If you believe the political will exists [to prevent defaults] then the yield levels are obviously attractive,” he said.
William L. Watts is a reporter for MarketWatch in London.
Greece dodges bullet, but sovereign jitters remain - MarketWatch
- Stato