Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[tommy271]

Questo è chiaro. Non si possono avere certezze se non ad accordi presi.
E' solo che tendo a non fidarmi troppo delle versioni troppo strillate e ripetute, quando poi esistono accenni che restano "di nicchia" e stranamente tardano ad essere "riproposti", almeno citati. Sembra che vengano volutamente omessi. E' chiaro che possono cambiare opinione altre 10 volte.
Fa però piacere vedere che lo stesso ministro delle finanze tedesco (che poi sarà, presumo, la testa pensante e l'addetto ai lavori della linea Merkel) riteneva chiaro quel punto. Potrebbe essere un buon punto di incontro con la linea di dissenso portata avanti da Trichet e Junker, se per i tedeschi quindi non è inammissibile.
E poi non mi torna una cosa: perchè esplicitare quel particolare di fronte alla stampa "domestica", dove semmai tornava comodo, come uditorio, a fini elettorali, al limite omettere il dettaglio? Volendo era un particolare scomodo alle orecchie di un tedesco (che non fosse investito in titoli Greci ). Di fronte alla comunità internazionale, al contratio, sarebbe potuta sembrare una frasetta buttata li, magari senza impegno, tanto per sedare gli animi del dissenso alla linea Franco-Tedesca.
Invece è l'esatto contrario. Il Der Spiegel riporta la cosa in tutte le versioni, nel riassuntino e nella versione Inglese.
Le notizie ribattute e che rimbalzano a livello Internazionale, tutte protese ad ammazzare ora in particolare Irlanda e Portogallo, non se ne curano di quel dettaglio.

Comunque concordo con te sulla storia dei volumi.
Ne sul nostro mercatino,men che meno sul tedesco (so' proprio euroscettici ) ci sono volumi molto rilevanti. Almeno a questi livelli di prezzi
Secondo me se si scende un pochino vedi come torna l'appetito.
Li vogliono ancora più a sconto forse. Io stesso non disdegnerei....

Perchè il buon Schauble se ne è uscito con questa frasetta, trascurata ma di primaria importanza?
E' stato un segnale verso l'interno o verso l'esterno?

Ti posso dire che lo Staff economico di Frau Merkel non è lo stesso di Schauble.
Più di una volta, in primavera, tra i due Staff sono scoppiati attriti.
Poi, fortunatamente, Schauble ha l'ultima parola. Un pò come il nostro Tremonti.
L'unica volta che ho avuto veramente paura sulla Grecia è stato quando hanno portato Schauble in Ospedale, durante la drammatica giornata di Bruxelles quando è stato votato il piano di aiutii.

 

[tommy271]

Greek FinMin: Not considering debt restructuring



Mon Nov 8, 2010 5:03pm EST

(Adds details, quotes)


LONDON Nov 8 (Reuters) - Greece is not considering restructuring its debt, its finance minister said on Monday, adding that regional elections the previous day showed the government has the support needed to push on with fiscal reform.
"We have said very clearly there is no issue of debt restructuring on the table," Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou told reporters following a speech in London.
His comments came after Prime Minister George Papandreou ruled out calling a snap election on Sunday after his party eked out a narrow election victory.

Papandreou's win was seen as a sign that Greece does not want another general vote as it struggles with debt issues.
"The election yesterday showed that we continue to have a clear mandate for reform," Papaconstantinou said.
The spread between 10-year Greek and German government bonds was around 900 basis points on Monday, narrowing from late last week as investors were heartened by the Greek vote results.
Yield spreads between 10-year periphery euro zone bonds and benchmark German debt have blown out in the past week as concerns resurface about fiscal problems in Ireland and Portugal.
Greek yield spreads also expanded last week, before narrowing slightly on Monday.
Papaconstantinou said the widening yield spreads reflected concerns about the euro zone periphery in general, adding that Greece is shielded from market volatility so long as it fulfills its end of the IMF/EU's 110 billion euro rescue deal.

 

[tommy271]

Greek Fin Min Disagrees With Germany On Debt Restructuring Option



(Updates with further comment from Papaconstantinou, comment from U.S. official, details on Greek elections)


LONDON (Dow Jones)--Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou Monday added his voice to the growing chorus of criticism aimed at German proposals to require bond investors to share the pain in future sovereign debt crises.
The German government is pushing for a new mechanism to deal with sovereign debt problems that would come into force in 2014.
It wants clauses to be inserted in new bond offerings from that time that would allow for agreed debt restructurings, so that investors and taxpayers share the burden.
Speaking at the London School of Economics, Papaconstantinou said the suggestion that debt may be restructured in the future could hurt governments struggling to find buyers for their bonds now.
"We need to discuss this very carefully so it doesn't blow up in our faces," he said.
Earlier Monday, a senior U.S. administration official said Germany's position is undermining market confidence in sovereign debt and pushing up prices for governments that face a mountain of debt that needs to be rolled over.
While the official said Berlin's rhetoric indicates Germany believes it is cheaper to allow defaults, the stance is having the opposite effect: making it more expensive for countries that have to roll over their portion of the $4 trillion in debt that has to be refinanced over the next several years.
Last Thursday, Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said the sharp rise in Irish government bond yields over the previous five days was solely because investors had been "spooked" by the German proposal.
Papaconstantinou also said the pursuit of austerity measures across the European Union risks pushing the bloc's economy back into recession.
He said that while his government has to cut its budget deficit, other governments don't face fiscal problems that are as severe. But he said that if bond investors demand that even those governments "step on the brakes," that could "choke off growth."
"I do worry very much that if we all get into a situation where we are forced by the markets to reduce deficits, it will lead to a double dip," he said.
Papaconstantinou added that he was "glad" the U.S. government was continuing to provide stimulus to the economy.
Greece's ruling Socialists survived a key test of their popularity Sunday, winning a narrow victory in local elections that were widely seen as a referendum on the government's harsh, three-year austerity program.
"Despite the hardship, we have not been throw out," Papaconstantinou said. "If national elections were to be held tomorrow, we would win, albeit with a reduced majority."



***
Anche qui, importantissimo, si parla di clausole da inserire sui nuovi bond.

 

[Noloss]

Bond euro in rialzo con periferici sotto pressione

Reuters
- 09/11/2010 08:28:49

LONDRA, 9 novembre (Reuters) -

I titoli di Stato tedeschi hanno aperto in rialzo la seduta, dopo che l'asta del Treasury 3 anni ha registrato una buona domanda e con i mercati periferici che restano sotto pressione.

Ieri gli spread irlandese e portoghese hanno toccato nuovi massimi, con le preoccupazioni che favoriscono la corsa ai titoli rifugio per eccellenza, cioè i Bund.

"Irlanda e Portogallo sono un disastro. L'Irlanda va già così senza asta, quindi cosa fermerà le vendite?" si chiede un trader.

Inizia oggi con le aste olandese ed austriaca la raffica di offerte di nuovi titoli di stato della settimana per un ammontare sui 16-18 miliardi complessivi. L'Olanda offre 2,5-3,5 miliardi della riapertura del suo bond decennale, cedola 3,50%. L'Italia annuncerà a mercato chiuso i quantitativi delle aste a medio-lungo, con la fetta maggiore (sui 4 miliardi) attesa per il nuovo Btp 5 anni, il novembre 2015, mentre più leggero è atteso l'ammontare per il Btp 2026 e il 2034.

 

[tommy271]

Qui trovate un'intervista a Papaconstantinou:

Greek Finance Minister Speaks Out About Countries Printing Money To Boost Their Ailing Economies | Business | Sky News

 

[tommy271]

Greek vote vindicates austerity cuts: finance minister
(AFP)



LONDON — The results of Sunday's local elections prove that Greece understands the government's harsh austerity measures were "necessary," Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said Monday.

"Surprisingly, despite the fact that difficult things were discussed, we were not beaten at last night's elections, we came first," Papaconstantinou said during a seminar at the London School of Economics.
"If national elections took place tomorrow, then we would win," he added.
"Despite the protests, despite all the problems, there is an understanding that what is being done is necessary," the minister continued.

The governing Socialist party suffered a slip in support compared with the 2009 legislative elections, but still finished ahead in seven out of 13 regions and is still in the running for the country's main cities after the first electoral round.
The government's austerity cuts were deemed as crucial in trying to convince international markets of its commitment to deficit reduction as directed by the International Monetary Fund and the countries of the eurozone.

Papaconstantinou said the situation in Greece was "beginning to stabilize" but that it was "the first step on a long road."
According to the minister, "Greek society has to look itself in the mirror and make some very tough decisions."
Papaconstantinou claimed there were "three lessons" to be learnt from the crisis.

"Lesson number one, if you delay things for a very long time, they catch you up; lesson number two, time costs money; lesson number three, you need a permanent mechanism at the European level," he said.

 

[tommy271]

Altra giornata "nera", quella di lunedì, sul fronte dei periferici, ed oggi non si preannuncia meglio: fa eccezione la Grecia che, grazie alla buona affermazione elettorale di Papandreou, riesce a contenere lo spread.
Oggi è attesa l'Asta a tre mesi dei Bot/Greek, il tasso è indicato in rialzo rispetto alla precedente.

L'Irlanda è nel pieno della bufera, continuando a macinare nuovi record storici sul Bund. L'incertezza attorno ai TdS regna sovrana mentre una debole compagine governativa cerca di affrontare la tempesta. Intanto l'opposizione si defila da qualunque tipo di accordo.
Rammento che la maggioranza si regge su appena tre voti di scarto ed un turno elettorale è previsto per il 25 novembre.
Situazione davvero sul filo del rasoio... Olli Rehn si trova intanto a Dublino per "consultazioni" ma ha già fatto sapere di approvare il piano antideficit del Governo.

Anche il Portogallo si trova ad affrontare i venti speculativi che soffiano forte, ma non può fare autonomamente nulla.
Nonostante la buona manovra messa in campo con l'appoggio della minoranza, i margini di contrasto delle spinte speculative sono pressochè ininfluenti.

Intanto Juncker ha stigmatizzato le posizioni in merito ai cambi: " Viene molto criticata la posizione Cinese, ma in altro modo gli Usa adottano la stessa politica. Vedo rischi di creare inflazione e rendere più difficile l'uscita dalla crisi".

Insomma, tutti contro tutti, e il Club Med ci rimette le penne: Spagna e Italia vanno a traino.

Grecia 908 pb. (915)
Irlanda 560 pb. (540)
Portogallo 448 pb. (430)
Spagna 202 pb. (196)
Italia 160 pb. (152)

 

[tommy271]

EURO GOVT-Bunds supported by periphery; Greece to sell bills


LONDON | Tue Nov 9, 2010 2:14am EST



LONDON Nov 9 (Reuters) - German government bonds rose on Tuesday, supported by firm U.S. Treasuries after a sale of 3-year notes drew a good bid, and with peripheral euro zone issuers expected to remain under pressure. The premium investors demand to hold Irish and Portuguese debt hit new highs on Monday as financing worries weighed on peripheral issuers, with Bunds benefiting from the resulting safe-haven flows.
"Ireland and Portugal are a mess. This is already Ireland trading with no supply so what's going to stop the sell-off?" said a trader. "People are trapped, they would sell if they could but as it is, prices are just getting marked wider."
At 0711 GMT, December Bund futures FGBLU0 were 22 ticks higher at 130.73. Two-year bond yields DE2YT=TWEB were 1.2 basis points lower at 0.915 percent, with 10-year yields DE10YT=TWEB down a basis point at 2.374 percent. Greece will auction 300 million euros of 26-week T-bills [ID:nLDE6A408P], after Greek yield spreads also widened sharply last week. The yield on Greece's outstanding 6-month note maturing in March was 5.673 percent <0#GR1803116MT=>.
Austria will also sell 1.1 billion euros of government bonds and the Netherlands up to 3.5 billion of 10-year bonds.
Commerzbank says it expects both countries to complete their 2010 funding on Wednesday and not hold auctions in December.
"Taking also into account that Germany's funding programme had been scaled back twice, this will leave supply out of the core space rather scarce going into year-end," said analyst Benjamin Schroeder, adding this underpinned the bank's view for lower yields in 10-year Bunds towards the year-end.

 

[tommy271]

Greek FinMin: Greece Not Ireland, Banks Under Control

By Market News International || November 8, 2010 at 20:16 GMT



LONDON (MNI) – Greek Finance Minister Giorgios Papaconstantinou
sought to distance his country from troubled Ireland tonight, saying
that Greece “is not Ireland” and stressed that Greece’s banks had not
got ahead of themselves as in Ireland.

“Greece is not Ireland, we don’t have a banking system ahead of
itself, we have a credibility problem with sovereign that became a
funding problem in international markets for our banking system”.

In a speech at the London School of Economics, the minister warned
that Eurostat’s estimate for the budget deficit of Greece in 2009 would
be “substantially” higher compared with that already announced.

Papaconstantinou said that Greece would end this year with the
budget deficit 5.5% percentage points lower than it started but that the
country had only taken the “first steps on a long and difficult road”.

“Where are we at? Well, we’re going to close the year having in
fact closed the deficit by at least five and a haldfpercentage points,
maybe more”.
The economy was “not out of the woods,” he added.

But Greece is winning support from its own voters for the measures
it has had to take and said that he expected that the current government
would win an election with a narrow majority.

He admitted that Greeks did not find the current austerity policies
easy to live up to:
“We’re not a collective society,” he said.
“It doesn’t come naturally,” he continued.

He said that growth and demand would need to come from exports and
investment in order to improve debt reduction dynamics and said that he
expected domestic consumption to be below its recent levels for some
years.

The shipping sector would be key to recovery and it was picking up,
he noted.
He continued – “The finance sector is showing first signs of
life”.

The minister complained that at the moment all EU countries are
“falling over themselves” to please the markets and warned that this
“not necessarilly a healthy situation”.


(Forexlive.com)

 

[tommy271]

China Steps Foot Into European Doorways



China's aim is snapping up assets depressed by the global financial crisis

When Prime Minister Wen Jiabao travels abroad, he goes prepared bearing billions of dollars worth of business deals and a wave of approvable attention from critical foreign investors. The Prime Minister Wen recently toured Greece as a strategic push into Europe. Analysts say Beijing aspires to accomplish not just more business, but also greater influence over the economic policies set in the power corridors of Brussels and Germany.

China's aim is snapping up assets depressed by the global financial crisis and becoming a significant ally of other hard-hit European nations. Such moves could give China a bigger presence in the European chain of distribution and production, while allowing it to build a track record in European to support its position on currency issues and in trade affairs at the World Trade Organization.


(chinainvesting.com)