Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (3 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
tommy271
Forumer storico
Cutting links to the state may be the solution for banks that can lead to growth
Lenders need to clean up their balance sheets to regain investor confidence, draw fresh capital
By Dimtiris Kontogiannis - Kathimerini English Edition
The success of the Greek economic policy program in restoring fiscal sustainability and winning over the confidence of investors in capital markets relies on putting the economy back onto a growth path. However, the chances of doing so will be small as long as the banking sector cannot delink from the state and its fiscal mess. The latter requires some bold moves.
The argument of equal treatment with Ireland may help Greece get what it wanted all along from its official lenders, namely, the eurozone countries and the International Monetary Fund, in the last few months. That is, the extension of the repayment of the 110-billion-euro financing package which supported the program agreed to with the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF last May.
The Greeks would have liked the extension of the repayment schedule to be presented as a reward for honoring the tough commitments undertaken in the memorandum signed last May. They may get some praise in the official communique of the EU ministers after all but it is clear that they owe much more to Ireland and the prevalence of common sense.
Of course, the country would not be in such a position if it had managed to negotiate a better deal with the so-called «troika» last May as the latter was more keen in anticipating the market reaction to the resulting annual borrowing needs of the country in excess of 70 billion euro in 2014-2015.
It would have required an impressive fiscal consolidation, ample liquidity in global markets and a risk-loving international financial environment to convince global investors to buy Greece's new bonds at reasonable yields in 2011-2012, and to overlook its high public debt-to-GDP ratio and large borrowing needs in coming years.
Although extending the repayment of the remaining official loan makes it easier for the country to refinance its public debt in coming years, the odds are still against it. Standard & Poor's, one of the major credit rating agencies, warned last week against another downgrade of Greece's rating, which is already at junk status, depending on the rules governing the new mechanism for dealing with sovereign crises after 2013 sought by Germany.
Even so Greece's ability to service its public debt in the future depends to a large extent on putting its economy back on a growth trajectory. But the Greek economy is not likely to grow again at satisfactory levels if its banking sector does not function properly and provide credit to creditworthy households and corporations.
Greek government officials and bankers are always quick to point out the strengths of the banking sector, which is not the cause of the country's problems, unlike in Ireland. They say local banks were not exposed to toxic assets such as subprime loans abroad and there was no real estate bubble in Greece. They also point to the Pan-European bank stress tests last summer, where just one bank, ATE Bank, did not pass.
This is true to a large extent as local banks have been victims of the state's sovereign crisis and have been unable to play their intermediary role in a proper way. With capital markets closed for quite some time and deposits depleting by more than 10 percent since the start of the year, they have relied on the ECB's cheap financing to continue funding the economy and roll-over their maturing bonds.
Many analysts say Greek banks will get back to business as usual when the state is able to access the capital markets again. However, this may take some time, most likely years, and banks will not be able to help the economy get back to growth and the to state put its public finances faster in order.
Some therefore suggest that local banks delink from the state as soon as possible to be able to attract much needed capital and finance the economy without relying on the ECB. The only way to do so is to recognize the losses from the Greek government bonds they carry on their books.
With local banks carrying some 35-40 billion euros of Greek bonds at prices well above those found in thin secondary bond markets, this would entail heavy losses for their current shareholders. The latter could either participate in recapitalizing their banks or sell them at a cheap price to foreign peers.
One may say that nobody can force private shareholders to sell their equity stakes and may be right under normal circumstances. However, these are quite unusual circumstances and the case of Ireland has shown how much leverage the ECB has over the state and the banks, since it is their lifeline. Perhaps, Ireland would not have sought financial help if it were not for the insistence of the ECB, as its Justice Minister revealed in an interview.
There is no question that Greek banks will have to clean up their balance sheets to convince investors to trust them again and provide them with fresh capital to be able to provide credit to the local economy.
This requires cutting their major link to the public sector, namely selling all or a great deal of Greek government bonds in their portfolios and recognizing the losses. Some even suggest that they replace some of them with the new AAA rated securities to be issued by the EFSF (European Financial Stability Mechanism), the aid mechanism to be tapped by Ireland. It is not a panacea but it may be a solution to getting the Greek economy back to work.
(Kathimerini.gr)
By Dimtiris Kontogiannis - Kathimerini English Edition
The success of the Greek economic policy program in restoring fiscal sustainability and winning over the confidence of investors in capital markets relies on putting the economy back onto a growth path. However, the chances of doing so will be small as long as the banking sector cannot delink from the state and its fiscal mess. The latter requires some bold moves.
The argument of equal treatment with Ireland may help Greece get what it wanted all along from its official lenders, namely, the eurozone countries and the International Monetary Fund, in the last few months. That is, the extension of the repayment of the 110-billion-euro financing package which supported the program agreed to with the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF last May.
The Greeks would have liked the extension of the repayment schedule to be presented as a reward for honoring the tough commitments undertaken in the memorandum signed last May. They may get some praise in the official communique of the EU ministers after all but it is clear that they owe much more to Ireland and the prevalence of common sense.
Of course, the country would not be in such a position if it had managed to negotiate a better deal with the so-called «troika» last May as the latter was more keen in anticipating the market reaction to the resulting annual borrowing needs of the country in excess of 70 billion euro in 2014-2015.
It would have required an impressive fiscal consolidation, ample liquidity in global markets and a risk-loving international financial environment to convince global investors to buy Greece's new bonds at reasonable yields in 2011-2012, and to overlook its high public debt-to-GDP ratio and large borrowing needs in coming years.
Although extending the repayment of the remaining official loan makes it easier for the country to refinance its public debt in coming years, the odds are still against it. Standard & Poor's, one of the major credit rating agencies, warned last week against another downgrade of Greece's rating, which is already at junk status, depending on the rules governing the new mechanism for dealing with sovereign crises after 2013 sought by Germany.
Even so Greece's ability to service its public debt in the future depends to a large extent on putting its economy back on a growth trajectory. But the Greek economy is not likely to grow again at satisfactory levels if its banking sector does not function properly and provide credit to creditworthy households and corporations.
Greek government officials and bankers are always quick to point out the strengths of the banking sector, which is not the cause of the country's problems, unlike in Ireland. They say local banks were not exposed to toxic assets such as subprime loans abroad and there was no real estate bubble in Greece. They also point to the Pan-European bank stress tests last summer, where just one bank, ATE Bank, did not pass.
This is true to a large extent as local banks have been victims of the state's sovereign crisis and have been unable to play their intermediary role in a proper way. With capital markets closed for quite some time and deposits depleting by more than 10 percent since the start of the year, they have relied on the ECB's cheap financing to continue funding the economy and roll-over their maturing bonds.
Many analysts say Greek banks will get back to business as usual when the state is able to access the capital markets again. However, this may take some time, most likely years, and banks will not be able to help the economy get back to growth and the to state put its public finances faster in order.
Some therefore suggest that local banks delink from the state as soon as possible to be able to attract much needed capital and finance the economy without relying on the ECB. The only way to do so is to recognize the losses from the Greek government bonds they carry on their books.
With local banks carrying some 35-40 billion euros of Greek bonds at prices well above those found in thin secondary bond markets, this would entail heavy losses for their current shareholders. The latter could either participate in recapitalizing their banks or sell them at a cheap price to foreign peers.
One may say that nobody can force private shareholders to sell their equity stakes and may be right under normal circumstances. However, these are quite unusual circumstances and the case of Ireland has shown how much leverage the ECB has over the state and the banks, since it is their lifeline. Perhaps, Ireland would not have sought financial help if it were not for the insistence of the ECB, as its Justice Minister revealed in an interview.
There is no question that Greek banks will have to clean up their balance sheets to convince investors to trust them again and provide them with fresh capital to be able to provide credit to the local economy.
This requires cutting their major link to the public sector, namely selling all or a great deal of Greek government bonds in their portfolios and recognizing the losses. Some even suggest that they replace some of them with the new AAA rated securities to be issued by the EFSF (European Financial Stability Mechanism), the aid mechanism to be tapped by Ireland. It is not a panacea but it may be a solution to getting the Greek economy back to work.
(Kathimerini.gr)
tommy271
Forumer storico
PM to seek backing of ND on key reforms
As the government prepares for another difficult week of meetings with representatives of its international creditors, it has emerged that Prime Minister George Papandreou is planning to propose a plan for cooperation to the leader of the main conservative opposition New Democracy, Antonis Samaras.
Papandreou is due in Brussels tomorrow for talks with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso on Greece’s progress in pushing through much-needed structural reforms ahead of a crucial European Council summit on December 17.
The summit is expected to focus on the creation of a permanent rescue mechanism to support EU member states with burgeoning debt problems such as Greece and Ireland.
In the meantime, the government is expecting visits from the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, tomorrow and from the EU’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn on Thursday.
The officials are expected to meet with several ministers for an update on the government’s progress in streamlining loss-making public companies and boosting revenue from more efficient tax collection – two major reforms the government pledged to its creditors in return for a 110-billion-euro rescue package.
It is these, and other, reforms for which Papandreou aims to win the support of Samaras, sources told Kathimerini. Essentially Papandreou would like the ND leader to back the government’s implementation of reforms it has agreed with its creditors in principle and to discourage public protests and strikes. In return, the premier is reportedly willing to attempt a renegotiation of certain aspects of the agreement between Greece and its creditors known as the “memorandum.”
(Kathimerini.gr)
As the government prepares for another difficult week of meetings with representatives of its international creditors, it has emerged that Prime Minister George Papandreou is planning to propose a plan for cooperation to the leader of the main conservative opposition New Democracy, Antonis Samaras.
Papandreou is due in Brussels tomorrow for talks with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso on Greece’s progress in pushing through much-needed structural reforms ahead of a crucial European Council summit on December 17.
The summit is expected to focus on the creation of a permanent rescue mechanism to support EU member states with burgeoning debt problems such as Greece and Ireland.
In the meantime, the government is expecting visits from the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, tomorrow and from the EU’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn on Thursday.
The officials are expected to meet with several ministers for an update on the government’s progress in streamlining loss-making public companies and boosting revenue from more efficient tax collection – two major reforms the government pledged to its creditors in return for a 110-billion-euro rescue package.
It is these, and other, reforms for which Papandreou aims to win the support of Samaras, sources told Kathimerini. Essentially Papandreou would like the ND leader to back the government’s implementation of reforms it has agreed with its creditors in principle and to discourage public protests and strikes. In return, the premier is reportedly willing to attempt a renegotiation of certain aspects of the agreement between Greece and its creditors known as the “memorandum.”
(Kathimerini.gr)
GiveMeLeverage
& I will remove the world
"Ringraziare" suppongo sia sarcastico...
Se passa questa (ESM creditore privilegiato) per noi è una bella tegola!
tommy271
Forumer storico
"Ringraziare" suppongo sia sarcastico...
Se passa questa (ESM creditore privilegiato) per noi è una bella tegola!
Penso proprio di si.
Del resto, probabilmente, si equiparerà al FMI.
Altri punti rimangono scoperti: il "2013", le clausole sui nuovi o sui vecchi bonds, class action, ecc.
Oggi tra Eurogruppo e domani Ecofin dovremmo sapere un pizzico (non troppo) in più ...
Ringraziare S&P nel senso che stanno facendo pressioni sugli organismi europei per non includere nei salvataggi il debito privato minacciando ulteriori downgrades.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Trade in gold coins on the rise
Pawn shops in downtown Omonia and other parts of Athens have been doing brisk business in the illicit trade of sovereign gold coins, according to research by Kathimerini published yesterday.
The research reveals that hundreds of citizens have been turning to self-proclaimed experts in the small-scale trade of gold and bypassing official banking practices in a bid to acquire gold sovereigns – albeit at a fraction of the legal price – without having to produce proof of income or assets.
While gold sovereigns are sold at around 290 euros at the Bank of Greece and Pireaus Bank – the country’s only two licensed suppliers – small-scale traders offer prices ranging from 8 to 30 euros. Unlike at the banks, however, customers can purchase in excess of 15,000 euros’ worth of gold sovereigns without having to explain the provenance of the money they are investing.
(Kathimerini.gr)
***
Quando tutto crolla ... si torna all'oro
.
Pawn shops in downtown Omonia and other parts of Athens have been doing brisk business in the illicit trade of sovereign gold coins, according to research by Kathimerini published yesterday.
The research reveals that hundreds of citizens have been turning to self-proclaimed experts in the small-scale trade of gold and bypassing official banking practices in a bid to acquire gold sovereigns – albeit at a fraction of the legal price – without having to produce proof of income or assets.
While gold sovereigns are sold at around 290 euros at the Bank of Greece and Pireaus Bank – the country’s only two licensed suppliers – small-scale traders offer prices ranging from 8 to 30 euros. Unlike at the banks, however, customers can purchase in excess of 15,000 euros’ worth of gold sovereigns without having to explain the provenance of the money they are investing.
(Kathimerini.gr)
***
Quando tutto crolla ... si torna all'oro
.
tommy271
Forumer storico
I TITOLI DEI GIORNALI:
The government's crucial meetings with the EC, ECB and IMF troika and six arrests on charges of involvement in a terrorist group, dominated the headlines on Monday in Athens' newspapers.
ADESMEFTOS TYPOS: "Police prevented terrorist attack".
AVRIANI: "Athens in state of siege ahead of 'loanshark chief' Dominique Strauss-Kahn's (IMF managing director) arrival".
ELEFTHEROS: "Theatre of the absurd between prime minister George Papandreou and Interior Minister Yiannis Ragoussis".
ELEFTHEROTYPIA: "Four-point objection to the troika".
ELEFTHEROS TYPOS: "15,000 lay-offs in the Armed Forces".
ESTIA: "Fresh ideas wanted".
ETHNOS: "Police dismantles the 'Revolutionaries' Sect' and 'Conspiracy of the Cells of Fire' terror groups network".
IMERISSIA: "Battle begins on three fronts".
NAFTEMPORIKI: "Pressure for immediate changes in public sector".
TA NEA: "They (terror group) were ready for new attack".
VRADYNI: "Middle Ages in labour and by law".
(ana.gr)
The government's crucial meetings with the EC, ECB and IMF troika and six arrests on charges of involvement in a terrorist group, dominated the headlines on Monday in Athens' newspapers.
ADESMEFTOS TYPOS: "Police prevented terrorist attack".
AVRIANI: "Athens in state of siege ahead of 'loanshark chief' Dominique Strauss-Kahn's (IMF managing director) arrival".
ELEFTHEROS: "Theatre of the absurd between prime minister George Papandreou and Interior Minister Yiannis Ragoussis".
ELEFTHEROTYPIA: "Four-point objection to the troika".
ELEFTHEROS TYPOS: "15,000 lay-offs in the Armed Forces".
ESTIA: "Fresh ideas wanted".
ETHNOS: "Police dismantles the 'Revolutionaries' Sect' and 'Conspiracy of the Cells of Fire' terror groups network".
IMERISSIA: "Battle begins on three fronts".
NAFTEMPORIKI: "Pressure for immediate changes in public sector".
TA NEA: "They (terror group) were ready for new attack".
VRADYNI: "Middle Ages in labour and by law".
(ana.gr)
tommy271
Forumer storico
tommy271
Forumer storico
Eurogruppo, pressioni da Fmi per aumento fondo salvataggio
lunedì 6 dicembre 2010 10:54
BRUXELLES (Reuters) - I ministri delle Finanze della zona euro si incontrano oggi a Bruxelles e dovranno fare i conti con le pressioni per un aumento del fondo di emergenza per salvare i paesi membri in difficoltà rispetto agli attuali 750 miliardi di euro.
Un appello a incrementare la dotazione del fondo arriverà dal Fondo monetario internazionale, in base a un documento ottenuto da Reuters. Il direttore generale del Fondo, Dominique Strauss Kahn, parteciperà infatti oggi alla riunione dei ministri Ecofin e presenterà un rapporto da cui emerge che il fondo dovrebbe essere di dimensioni maggiori e che la Bce dovrebbe incrementare gli acquisti di titoli di Stato.
Secondo una fonte europea sia il rapporto dell'Fmi che la situazione dei mercati verranno discussi ampiamente nella riunione odierna, cui farà seguito domani quella dei 27 ministri finanziari dell'Unione che dovrebbero approvare il pacchetto di aiuti all'Irlanda da 85 miliardi di dollari.
Nei giorni scorsi gli acquisti di titoli di Stato da parte della Bce hanno aiutato a calmare i mercati ma le tensioni legate alla situazione del debito dell'area euro sono lungi dall'essere risolte.
Parlando alla tv austriaca il banchiere centrale Ewald Nowotny ha spiegato che i legami tra i membri dell'euro sono orami così stretti che "un'amputazione" come sarebbe l'espulsione dalla moneta unica dei paesi più deboli avrebbe effetti controproducenti su tutti.
In un intervento sul Financial Times oggi il ministro dell'Economia, Giulio Tremonti, e il premier lussemburghese, Jean Claude Juncker, chiedono l'emissione di titoli del debito europei, "E-bonds", per sancire "l'irreversibilità dell'euro".
Per i due leader la creazione di un'agenzia europea del debito potrebbe avvenire già in dicembre se il progetto ricevesse l'appoggio dell'organismo che rappresenta gli stati membri.
Il rapporto dell'Fmi avverte che la ripresa della zona euro, trainata dalla forza dell'economia tedesca, potrebbe facilmente deragliare a causa delle tensioni sui mercati. Per il Fondo ci sono "forti rischi di rallentamento" associati ai paesi periferici.
Tuttavia il ministro dell'Economia spagnolo, Elena Salgado, ha escluso per il momento un incremento della dotazione del Fondo. Nella sua attuale configurazione il fondo di emergenza ha risorse sufficienti per un eventuale salvataggio del Portogallo mentre non sarebbero abbastanza per aiutare la Spagna, quarta economia europea che richiederebbe aiuti ampiamente superiori a quelli erogati finora per Grecia e Irlanda.
lunedì 6 dicembre 2010 10:54
BRUXELLES (Reuters) - I ministri delle Finanze della zona euro si incontrano oggi a Bruxelles e dovranno fare i conti con le pressioni per un aumento del fondo di emergenza per salvare i paesi membri in difficoltà rispetto agli attuali 750 miliardi di euro.
Un appello a incrementare la dotazione del fondo arriverà dal Fondo monetario internazionale, in base a un documento ottenuto da Reuters. Il direttore generale del Fondo, Dominique Strauss Kahn, parteciperà infatti oggi alla riunione dei ministri Ecofin e presenterà un rapporto da cui emerge che il fondo dovrebbe essere di dimensioni maggiori e che la Bce dovrebbe incrementare gli acquisti di titoli di Stato.
Secondo una fonte europea sia il rapporto dell'Fmi che la situazione dei mercati verranno discussi ampiamente nella riunione odierna, cui farà seguito domani quella dei 27 ministri finanziari dell'Unione che dovrebbero approvare il pacchetto di aiuti all'Irlanda da 85 miliardi di dollari.
Nei giorni scorsi gli acquisti di titoli di Stato da parte della Bce hanno aiutato a calmare i mercati ma le tensioni legate alla situazione del debito dell'area euro sono lungi dall'essere risolte.
Parlando alla tv austriaca il banchiere centrale Ewald Nowotny ha spiegato che i legami tra i membri dell'euro sono orami così stretti che "un'amputazione" come sarebbe l'espulsione dalla moneta unica dei paesi più deboli avrebbe effetti controproducenti su tutti.
In un intervento sul Financial Times oggi il ministro dell'Economia, Giulio Tremonti, e il premier lussemburghese, Jean Claude Juncker, chiedono l'emissione di titoli del debito europei, "E-bonds", per sancire "l'irreversibilità dell'euro".
Per i due leader la creazione di un'agenzia europea del debito potrebbe avvenire già in dicembre se il progetto ricevesse l'appoggio dell'organismo che rappresenta gli stati membri.
Il rapporto dell'Fmi avverte che la ripresa della zona euro, trainata dalla forza dell'economia tedesca, potrebbe facilmente deragliare a causa delle tensioni sui mercati. Per il Fondo ci sono "forti rischi di rallentamento" associati ai paesi periferici.
Tuttavia il ministro dell'Economia spagnolo, Elena Salgado, ha escluso per il momento un incremento della dotazione del Fondo. Nella sua attuale configurazione il fondo di emergenza ha risorse sufficienti per un eventuale salvataggio del Portogallo mentre non sarebbero abbastanza per aiutare la Spagna, quarta economia europea che richiederebbe aiuti ampiamente superiori a quelli erogati finora per Grecia e Irlanda.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Spread/Cds allargano su periferici in vista meeting Ecofin
lunedì 6 dicembre 2010 11:02
LONDRA, 6 dicembre (Reuters) - Il premio chiesto dagli investitori per detenere titoli dei paesi periferici a 10 anni piuttosto che tedeschi è leggermente cresciuto stamane, nell'incertezza per i risultati del meeting dei ministri delle finanze oggi a Bruxelles.
Lo spread di rendimento tra decennali spagnoli e tedeschi si è allargato di 10 punti base a 235 pb, mentre l'analogo italiano si è allargato di 9 pb a 168 pb, secondo dati Trade Web.
Parallelamente è aumentato il costo per assicurarsi dal caso di default (Cds) del debito spagnolo di 11 pb a 310 pb secondo dati Markit. Il Cds a 5 anni della Grecia si è allargato di 18 pb a 905 pb, quello portoghese di 8 pb a 440 pb e quello italiano di 9 pb a 210 pb.
lunedì 6 dicembre 2010 11:02
LONDRA, 6 dicembre (Reuters) - Il premio chiesto dagli investitori per detenere titoli dei paesi periferici a 10 anni piuttosto che tedeschi è leggermente cresciuto stamane, nell'incertezza per i risultati del meeting dei ministri delle finanze oggi a Bruxelles.
Lo spread di rendimento tra decennali spagnoli e tedeschi si è allargato di 10 punti base a 235 pb, mentre l'analogo italiano si è allargato di 9 pb a 168 pb, secondo dati Trade Web.
Parallelamente è aumentato il costo per assicurarsi dal caso di default (Cds) del debito spagnolo di 11 pb a 310 pb secondo dati Markit. Il Cds a 5 anni della Grecia si è allargato di 18 pb a 905 pb, quello portoghese di 8 pb a 440 pb e quello italiano di 9 pb a 210 pb.
- Stato