Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (2 lettori)

[IL MARATONETA]

Ottima ricetta Tommy ma aggiungerei che i prestiti servono trentennali
e per rientrare dall'indebitamento (previsto tra qualche anno al 150% del pil) servono incassi, quindi privatizzazioni per la cifra più o meno indicata dagli osservatori bce

 

[tommy271]

Euro’s survival is in China’s interest


Bank of China’s Chairman Xiao Gang has likened the saving of the beleaguered eurozone to the saving of globalisation.
Writing in response to the increasing calls within France and Germany for the return of the franc and Deutschmark, Chairman Gang stated that the future of the single currency was bound tightly not just to the European Union but to globalisation.
The chairman added that the euro was one of the greatest achievements of globalisation over the last few decades.
He went on to say that the euro has been successful in many areas during its 12 year existence and welcomed the eurozone’s dedication to liberal democratic governance and a cross-border free market.
Chairman Gang described the eurozone as supporting the subscribing economies by reducing foreign exchange fluctuations and allowing free flow of talent and wealth.
However, he warned that the only way to avoid the splitting of the eurozone was through strong political leadership.
Describing the eurozone and China as one another’s most important trading partners and close strategic partners, Chairman Gang stated that the euro’s survival was in China’s interest.
In recent times the eurozone has had to bail out two member states (Greece and Ireland), and speculation continues that further bailouts may be necessary this year.


(bankingtimes.co.uk)

 

[tommy271]

The thin red line


By Jens Bastian*




Last Friday, the troika (the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank) presented its overall assessment of Greece during its third quarter evaluation. The main conclusion was that the Growth and Stability Program continues to make progress toward its various fiscal, revenue generating and structural reform objectives.

However, they note that major reforms still need to be designed and implemented to build the critical mass necessary to firmly anchor fiscal sustainability and economic recovery in Greece. But, for the first time, a public controversy has erupted between the troika and the government of George Papandreou over what that means specifically. During last Friday’s press conference, members of the IMF, EU and ECB suggested that Greece recalibrate its assets. What does that mean in practice?

In contrast to past quarterly reviews, the troika focused on the asset side of Greece. What does the state own, how is it valued and what could be done with some of these assets? They did so in order to move away from the focus on the country’s debt dynamics and persistent restructuring discussions across Europe. Obviously the troika now has a rough estimate of what assets are being held by the Greek state relative to its public debt.

In their estimate, the volume is equivalent to roughly 300-billion-euros worth of assets, from which approximately 100 billion euros come from land and real estate valuations. In practical terms, they suggested that the government should aim to raise 50 billion euros from the privatization of state assets (including land and real estate) by 2015. This target is well above the original 3-billion-euro objective set out by the Papandreou government when it presented its privatization program back in mid-2010.

Putting a figure on asset sales and attaching a timetable during which this could be achieved was the first time that the troika provided a numerical recommendation to the government as regards privatization and revenue increases through asset sales.

The reaction from the Papandreou government was quick and sharp. «We do not take orders from the troika» (Papandreou) and «meddling in domestic economic affairs» (government spokesperson Giorgos Petalotis) were two of the official, and angry, reactions. Papandreou placed a call to Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the managing director of the IMF, underlining the urgency of the matter and his irritation at this kind of public intervention from the troika.

The sensitivity of the subject should not be underestimated in Washington, Brussels or Frankfurt. People in Greece do not have short memories. You will recall the arrogant suggestions by some German parliamentarians from the governing coalition in Berlin in mid-2010 that Greece should sell islands.

So, for the first time there is a manifest public disagreement with and government disapproval of the troika’s proposals. But this should not come as a surprise. As the implementation of the agreement with the troika moves into its next phase, i.e. from a focus on expenditure cuts to revenue increases and structural reforms, the issues on the agenda are going to become much more delicate, creating disagreements and possibly outright refusal among the parties and constituencies involved.

Just look at neighboring Romania and its fraught relationship with the IMF. Or the manner in which Prime Minister Viktor Orban from Hungary is currently challenging the policies and recommendations of the IMF.
In practical terms, it is not realistic to achieve asset sales in the range of 50 billion euros by 2015.
Given the circumstances in Greece, the sale of land and real estate would be difficult to move ahead with because the central government does not yet have a fully operational and transparent property registration system, or cadastre.

Moreover, as the Vatopedi Monastery scandal has shown, asset sales (or swaps) involving land/real estate are subject to very controversial valuations and the influence of middlemen. It would be rather precarious to embark on a sustained sale of real estate assets now when the full implications of the Vatopedi scandal are still unknown.

I would also want to ask what the sales proceeds would be used for? Do you use them in order to invest in the real economy, infrastructure, higher education, innovation or green technology? Or do you use the additional revenue toward buying Greek public debt at depressed prices and thus bring down debt dynamics? In short, toward what end do you want to use the additional revenue? Here the troika has kept silent. But these questions need to be answered.

Finally, I think that the troika/Papandreou disagreement is also a sign of the former pressing the latter to come up with a flagship achievement that can really catch the imagination of international capital markets and reassure observers that Greece is on a sustainable reform path.

Put otherwise, can the government come up with another Cosco/Chinese FDI project? Or do you deliver a major reform, e.g. regarding combating tax evasion, which sends a clear signal to market participants that Greece is capable of executing when the going gets tough? This public controversy is as much about the substance of going forward in terms of policy making as it is about shaping Greece’s narrative for market participants.

In my view, Papandreou and Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou would like to move forward. They are modernizers in their own right. In particular Papandreou, whose mission is essentially to undo most of his father's achievements, including nationalizations.

But these issues have to be prepared inside the governing PASOK party and communicated accordingly with a coherent message to the wider public. Here the government was caught off guard by the specific proposals of the troika. It points to a lack of internal message discipline between troika and government modernizers as well as understanding where the “thin red line” is drawn.

* Jens Bastian is a visiting fellow for the political economy of Southeast Europe at St Antony’s College, Oxford, UK, and a senior economic research fellow at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP) in Athens.


ekathimerini.com , Tuesday February 15, 2011 (20:50)

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Opinioni.

 

[tommy271]

Ottima ricetta Tommy ma aggiungerei che i prestiti servono trentennali
e per rientrare dall'indebitamento (previsto tra qualche anno al 150% del pil) servono incassi, quindi privatizzazioni per la cifra più o meno indicata dagli osservatori bce

Per i prestiti della troika è sufficiente una diluizione decennale. Forse a trentanni con ulteriori prestiti necessari per effettuare il buy-back.

Per rientrare dal deficit/Pil è necessaria un'azione combinata tra buy-back, investimenti dall'estero e privatizzazioni.
Le proiezioni al 150% del PIL potranno ridursi efficacemente con gli strumenti sopra indicati.

Le polemiche intorno ai 50 MLD che potrebbero arrivare dalle privatizzazioni hanno innestato una polemica politica.
La troika ha sbagliato ad inserire la nota, in maniera pubblica, durante la recente visita dando modo di aizzare ulteriormente la polemica nei confronti di Papandreou.
L'esecutivo ellenico ha ben chiara la strategia da seguire.

 

[tommy271]

Intanto gli spread, abbandonati a se stessi, veleggiano verso l'alto. Ora a 873 pb.
La Borsa si mantiene neutrale con gli indici, in escursione percentuale, sopra e sotto lo zero.

 

[IL MARATONETA]

Intanto gli spread, abbandonati a se stessi, veleggiano verso l'alto. Ora a 873 pb.
La Borsa si mantiene neutrale con gli indici, in escursione percentuale, sopra e sotto lo zero.

Mi aspetto che a questi prezzi la BCE ricominci ad acquistare titoli GGB, per incrementare l'importo del buy-back

 

[tommy271]

Mi aspetto che a questi prezzi la BCE ricominci ad acquistare titoli GGB, per incrementare l'importo del buy-back

Ho un paio di amici dalle tue parti... per migliorare l'efficacia del buy-back meglio lasciare che lo spread allarghi.

 

[IL MARATONETA]

Per i prestiti della troika è sufficiente una diluizione decennale. Forse a trentanni con ulteriori prestiti necessari per effettuare il buy-back.

Per rientrare dal deficit/Pil è necessaria un'azione combinata tra buy-back, investimenti dall'estero e privatizzazioni.
Le proiezioni al 150% del PIL potranno ridursi efficacemente con gli strumenti sopra indicati.

Le polemiche intorno ai 50 MLD che potrebbero arrivare dalle privatizzazioni hanno innestato una polemica politica.
La troika ha sbagliato ad inserire la nota, in maniera pubblica, durante la recente visita dando modo di aizzare ulteriormente la polemica nei confronti di Papandreou.
L'esecutivo ellenico ha ben chiara la strategia da seguire.

Tommy è essenziale che i mercati abbiano sul tavolo della BCE una risposta definitiva e non un ulteriore tappabuchi....

 

[IL MARATONETA]

Ho un paio di amici dalle tue parti... per migliorare l'efficacia del buy-back meglio lasciare che lo spread allarghi.

Dsiderio esaudito

 

[tommy271]

Euro left to meet in Athens, right in Helsinki
(AFP)



STRASBOURG, France — European Socialist leaders will meet in Athens on March 4 to plan for a summit of divided eurozone leaders, a party source said Wednesday, on the same day conservatives will gather in Helsinki.
A spokesman for Greek socialist MPs in the European Parliament, Antonis Kokidakis, said the talks, running into March 5, were "long planned" and would draw national party leaders, with Socialist prime ministers attending "depending on diaries."
Greece's George Papandreou, Portugal's Jose Socrates and Spain's Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero have each enacted fierce austerity cuts to national budgets under pressure from European Union partners, triggering a wave of protests and strikes.
Conservative heads of government will be in Helsinki on March 4 to plot their response to Europe's debt crisis, amid growing criticism that the EU is acting too slowly in the run-up to a March 11 eurozone summit and a crunch March 24-5 summit of all EU leaders.
The latter date is the self-imposed deadline for the EU to take firm decisions on the size, shape and scope of a permanent rescue mechanism in response to the debt crisis that saw bailouts for Greece and Ireland in 2010.
Germany, backed by France, wants eurozone countries to follow roughly the same economic policies, thereby reducing the risks of another crisis and boosting growth, before boosting bailout resources.
Economists say Portugal and ultimately also Spain are at risk of needing help.
But the plan has been criticised by some states who want to keep power on key issues such as tax levels, wage hikes and pensions, in domestic hands.
The EU is struggling to complete the "comprehensive package" of reforms it wants to present to ease markets, with Hungary's finance minister saying just one of 11 key disagreements were resolved at talks in Brussels this week among counterparts.
While an "agreement in principle" to stock a future, permanent rescue fund with half a billion euros in "effective lending capacity" was reached among eurozone ministers on Monday, a north-south EU divide has emerged on whether to beef up the existing fund until its expiry at the end of 2012.
Germany, the Netherlands and Finland lead hawks worried that Greece, Portugal and Ireland -- which is expected to flip to the right in February 25 elections brought on by its bailout -- need to do more in exchange for promises of further financial assistance.
EU president Herman Van Rompuy is charged with piloting the package past the internal divisions and sceptical media and market comment.
He said Wednesday in a statement "I will also test my own ideas" during consultations with national leaders.


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Le due grandi forze politiche europee in pista con due meeting alternativi.