German Voter Disapproval of Greek Bailout Muddles Aid Talks: Euro Credit
By Matthew Brown and Emma Charlton - Feb 22, 2011 1:00 AM GMT+0100 Tue Feb 22 00:00:01 GMT 2011
German Chancellor
Angela Merkel’s resolve to defend the euro is being tested after her party suffered one its worst defeats since World War II in the first of seven state elections this year.
Merkel’s
Christian Democratic Union lost power in Hamburg for the first time in a decade in a Feb. 20 vote. A European Union summit on March 24-25 to thrash out a permanent rescue facility to address the debt crisis that prompted Greece and Ireland to seek bailouts is sandwiched between polls that may echo what Merkel called “a stinging defeat.”
“We are in a ‘muddling through’ scenario,” said
Steven Major, global head of fixed-income research at HSBC Holdings Plc in London. “Come the end of March, things could come to a bit of a head. The negotiations can get knocked off course.”
Germany wants stiffer sanctions against nations whose budget deficits top 3 percent of gross domestic product in exchange for cheaper rescue loans. Merkel’s coalition partner, the Free Democratic Party, opposes increasing the scope of the European Financial Stability Facility rescue fund. The opposition Social Democrats, winners in Hamburg, have called for joint euro-area bonds and a bigger EFSF.
Failure to reach an agreement next month risks ending a period of faith in euro-region governments that has driven down yields in Spain and Greece relative to German bunds. The Greek- German 10-year yield spread has narrowed 100 basis points this year to reach 852. The equivalent Spanish spread is at 217 basis points after reaching 298 basis points on Nov. 30.
Fading Power
The loss in Hamburg further erodes the CDU’s representation in the parliament’s upper house after losing control of the chamber in May, a result Merkel blamed on voter anger over bailing out
Greece. The CDU coalition, with partners the FDP and the
Christian Social Union, holds a majority of the 622 seats that make up the lower house, the Bundestag.
The coalition will need opposition support to pass legislation creating the European Stability Mechanism, which will provide a permanent replacement to the EFSF when it expires in 2013, according to a parliamentary report published on Feb. 14. A two-thirds majority will be needed because its risks breaching constitutional budget rules, according to the report, which was commissioned by the FDP.
Investors began to drive yields higher this month after
Portugal’s warning that delays in overhauling the rescue fund threatened to incite market turmoil, and Greece joined
Italy in objecting to specific debt-reduction targets proposed by Germany.
Demanding Answers
“The German government is quite aware that financial markets are expecting some consistent and comprehensive answers as to where
Europe will go in the future,” said Marius Daheim, a senior fixed-income strategist at
Bayerische Landesbank in Munich, Germany’s second-largest state-owned lender. “To disappoint these market expectations by following domestically orientated policies would send a very, very negative signal to financial markets and could even spark off a further round of peripheral turmoil,”
Merkel’s party took 21.9 percent in the election on Feb. 20, its worst result in the port city since the first postwar vote in 1946 and half its score in 2008, preliminary results showed. The
Social Democrats, the main national opposition party, took 48.3 percent, enough to end the CDU’s 10-year rule in Hamburg and form a majority government without need of a coalition partner.
A state ballot in Saxony-Anhalt on March 20 will be followed by votes in Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden- Wuerttemberg, the southwestern state ruled by Merkel’s party for more than half a century.
“It’s always difficult for the current administration to maintain its popularity during these tests and it’s even more difficult given the backdrop because of the reality that the German’s are backstopping the efforts to rescue monetary union,” said
Padhraic Garvey, head of developed-market debt at ING Groep in Amsterdam. “What she says publicly and what goes on behind the scenes can be two quite different things.”
(Bloomberg)
***
Ora vedremo come si comporterà la Frau ...