S&P's Kraemer: Can't Say Greek Default Probability Negligible
LONDON (MNI) - The probability of a Greek default is not negligible and it is too optimistic to assume the upcoming European Council meeting will be a great leap forward in tackling the peripheral eurozone debt crisis, according to a top Standard and Poor's official.
Moritz Kraemer, Managing Director and Lead Analytical Manager for Sovereign Ratings, Europe, Middle East and Africa at credit ratings agency Standard and Poor's, said the eurozone peripheral countries' problems varied, and he highlighted problems in Greece.
On Greece, Kraemer said "I cannot stand up here and say the probility of default is negligible, I cannot do that and I wouldn't."
He acknowledged the steps taken by the Greek government, but also talked about what would happen in the event of a Greek default.
"We've said publically that we believe that if Greece were to default ... that recovery for Greek bondholders, in our opinion, would come in between 30-50%, so a haircut of more than 50%," he said.
"The contagion would be much worse than we have seen in any Latin area," he added.
Kraemer said there were signs of "EMU fatigue" among member states but "We're not as terminally gloomy as many market participants are."
He said eurozone "policymakers are facing the challenge of addresing this and turning it around, having a credible, unified voice and planning is critical."
Kraemer also said that he did not expect the upcoming meeting of the European Council to come up with a solution that significantly calms the ongoing sovereign debt crisis.
"There is a lot of talk about this upcoming European Council meeting that this will be the great leap forward, but that's hoping too much, focussing on the political reality, that's very unlikely to happen," he said.
He highlighted the differences between the eurozone peripheral states.
"I would say that there's lots of shades of grey here. There is lots of temptation to throw everything into the same basket," Kraemer said.
"The speed at which Ireland has adjusted is very encouraging," Kraemer added.
(imarketnews.com)
***
Altro analista.
Se fosse così semplice, senza nessuna ripercussione, il taglio del 50/70% perchè non è stato fatto sinora?
Sono argomenti molto deboli quelli portati dai "pessimisti", credere che con il default si risolvano i problemi ...