Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[tommy271]

GDP Decreased By 6.6% In Q4 2010



The Hellenic Statistical Authority announced that the Domestic Product by component in the 4th quarter of 2010 decreased by 6.6% in comparison with the 4th quarter of 2009, according to available not seasonally adjusted data.

Total final consumption expenditure recorded a decrease of 6.7% in comparison with the 4th quarter of 2009. General government consumption decreased by 1.9%, while private consumption recorded a decrease of 8.6%.

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) decreased by 7.6% in comparison with the 4th quarter of 2009.

Exports increased by 12.8% in comparison with the 4th quarter of 2009, while imports decreased by 3.2%. As a result of these changes, the external trade deficit decreased by 27.8%, partially offsetting the effect of the decline in other GDP components.

It should be noted that the comparison of quarterly data between the years 2000-2008 on the one hand and 2009-2010 on the other should be treated with caution, due to the different calculation method of quarterly General Government data. Namely, quarterly estimations for the years 2009-2010 are made with data mainly from direct sources, while for the period 2000-2008 estimations were made by allocating the annual results in the quarters.

The data published here are provisional and could be revised on the basis of ongoing work carried out by ELSTAT.

Due to the break in the time series of quarterly General Government data and the availability of data for only two years (2009-2010) following the new calculation method, the implementation of the existing method for the seasonal adjustment of the data does not provide satisfactory results. ELSTAT is in the process of addressing this issue in consultation with Eurostat.


(capital.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Greek Stocks Fluctuate Ιn Low Turnover



Athens Stocks moves in a fluctuating mood within a narrow margin on Friday, as the General Index trades in a moderate turnover.

The domestic market focuses on the criteria of bank stress tests, which were published by the European Banking Authority. The haircuts applied to Greek bonds include 5.2% for two-year debt, 12.6% for five-year and 17.1% for 10-year.

Meanwhile, the decision of the UN Security Council on military action against the forces of Gaddafi in Libya causes concern in the exchanges and nervousness in the oil market.

The price of brent, which recorded a 3.9% increase yesterday, maintains an upward trend on Friday, reaching $116 per barrel, while Credit Suisse reviewed its assessment of the average brent price by 25% to $105.8 from $85.

Analysts comment that this development triggers worldwide uncertainty, while the interest is still centered in the nuclear crisis in Japan. G-7 authorities agreed to act in concert and cooperate to counter a sharp rise in the yen.

Analysts estimate that the Greek market cannot differentiate its course from foreign indices due to the intensified nervousness.

Across the board, the General Index is at 1,611.26, down 0.57% in a turnover of EUR 36mn. A total amount of 44 shares rise, 64 decline and 43 remain unchanged.

Banks decline by 0.86%, at 1391.56 units. Attica Bank and Alpha Bank rise by 0.94% and 0.19% respectively, while Marfin Popular Bank, National Bank and Bank of Cyprus decline by 2.13%, 1.57% and 1.46%.


(capital.gr)


***
Un primo tentativo di calcolo per gli effetti di un ipotetico "haircut".

 

[AAAA47]

quindi per gli stress test che verranno fatti alle banche nelle prox settimane, si considera nello scenario peggiore, una perdita del 17% per i 10 anni (che quindi verranno contabilizzati a 83 negli stress test
giusto?

 

[tommy271]

quindi per gli stress test che verranno fatti alle banche nelle prox settimane, si considera nello scenario peggiore, una perdita del 17% per i 10 anni (che quindi verranno contabilizzati a 83 negli stress test
giusto?

Questo è quanto dice il sito "capital.gr"
E' una prima base di calcolo matematico.
Quanto poi sia realistica o meno non sono in grado di dirlo.
I precedenti "stress test" sono stati buttati via in malo modo ... forse questi andranno un pò meglio.

 

[AAAA47]

Questo è quanto dice il sito "capital.gr"
E' una prima base di calcolo matematico.
Quanto poi sia realistica o meno non sono in grado di dirlo.
I precedenti "stress test" sono stati buttati via in malo modo ... forse questi andranno un pò meglio.

beh, se sono i valori ufficiali, quelli saranno uguali per tutte le banche europee
per i decennali italiani si stima una perdita(haircut) del 13% circa

BANCHE - Comunicati i criteri per gli stress test

Websim - 18/03/2011 09:34:32



FATTO
L'EBA (European Banking Authority) ha comunicato i criteri dei prossimi stress test i cui risultati saranno pubblicati entro fine giugno.


La verifica sulla capacità degli istituti di credito di restare in piedi in caso di forti stress si basa sulle seguenti simulazioni:

1) calo del Pil dello 0,5% per il 2011 e dello 0,2% per il 2012: non ci sono variazioni importante rispetto allo stress test dell'anno scorso.

2) shock sui tassi a breve pari a 200 punti base da 125 punti base dell'anno scorso.

3) Una perdita in conto capitale (Haircut) sui titoli governativi pari al 13% sul decennale italiano da 7,4% dell'anno scorso, il provvedimento però si applica solo sulle obbligazioni detenute nel trading book limitando cosi l'impatto negativo dell'haircut, molto più pesante nella precedente verifica.

4) La soglia di capitale per lo stress test sembra essere stata fissata intorno al 5% di Core tier1 ovvero il 6% di Tier1 ratio.

EFFETTO
A prima vista i criteri dei nuovi stress test non ci sembrano seriamente più severi di quelli dell'anno scorso.

Ricordiamo che le nostre raccomandazioni sulle principali banche italiane sono le seguenti. Unicredit (UCG.MI) è INTERESSANTE con target price a 2,4 euro. Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP.MI) è NEUTRALE con target price a 2,7 euro.

 

[tommy271]

Se calcolano un taglio del decennale italiano al 13%, rispetto ad uno greco al 17%, abbiamo già capito quale impatto possano avere questi dati rispetto ad un "haircut" effettivo.

 

[tommy271]

European Banking Authority Gives Details Of Stress Tests



The European Banking Authority published on Friday some of the parameters for this year΄s stress tests on the European Union΄s largest banks, according to Dow Jones Newswires.

The baseline scenario, devised by the European Central Bank, reflects official expectations of what is actually likely to happen. The adverse scenarios, which envision a combination of negative shocks, assume the following deviations from the baseline over a two-year period:

Sovereign bonds -but only those held in the trading books of the participating banks- will be subjected to a range of markdowns relative to their price at the end of 2010, while the European Banking Authority stresses that these prices were already sharply marked down as a result of last year΄s turmoil in sovereign debt markets.

The range of haircuts varies according to the sovereign issuer and the maturity of the bonds affected, while they are benchmarked against German sovereign debt, which is marked down by 2.1%, 3.5% and 6.2% in the case of five-, 10- and 15-year debt, respectively.

The haircuts applied to Greek bonds include 5.2% for two-year debt, 12.6% for five-year and 17.1% for 10-year.

For Ireland, they are 5.2% for two-year bonds, 12.6% for five-year and 19.1% for 10-year.

For Portugal, they are 5.5% for two-year, 11.6% for five-year and 19.8% for 10-year debt.

(capital.gr)

***
...Azzo, il taglio è maggiore sui bond decennali Portoghesi e Irlandesi .

 

[charlie84]

Spread in lieve restringimento, ora a 923 pb

 

[frmaoro]

comprare prima che sia troppo tardi

 

[EDESMO]

comprare prima che sia troppo tardi

ovunque ti leggo, sempre coerente !