Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (4 lettori)

[tommy271]

Irish, Greek Government Notes Slump on Concern EU Struggling to End Crisis

By Lukanyo Mnyanda and Keith Jenkins - Mar 22, 2011 2:47 PM GMT+0100 Tue Mar 22 13:47:34 GMT 2011

Irish and Greek two-year notes sank, leading the securities of Europe’s most indebted nations lower, on concern European Union leaders are struggling to find an immediate solution to the region’s fiscal crisis.
The losses left Irish two-year notes yielding more than those that mature in 10 years, while Greek two-year yields jumped by the most since March 9. EU finance chiefs settled yesterday on how to enable a permanent rescue fund to lend 500 billion euros ($712 billion) as of 2013, while remaining divided over how to get the current stopgap fund to its full capacity.
“They haven’t really reached an agreement on the current mechanism,” said Elwin de Groot, a senior market economist at Rabobank Groep in Utrecht, the Netherlands. “It’s small steps at a time. There’s still a lot of uncertainty.”
The yield on the Irish two-year note surged 88 basis points to 10.13 percent as of 1:41 p.m. in London, after reaching 10.18 percent, the most since 2003, when Bloomberg began collecting the data. That pushed the shorter-dated security’s yield to 24 basis points above the 10-year bond. Greece’s two-year yield advanced 41 basis points to 14.85 percent, after climbing to 14.91 percent.
The cost of insuring against an Irish default with credit default swaps rose 33 basis points to 620 basis points.
German bonds fell after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet repeated yesterday that he may raise interests rates as soon as next month.
The 10-year bund yield rose four basis points to 3.27 percent, while the yield on the two-year note was little changed at 1.73 percent.
German government bonds have handed investors a loss of 0.5 percent since the end of February, compared with a return of 0.5 percent for Treasuries, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Irish debt lost 1.5 percent, the indexes show.

 

[tommy271]

Greek FinMin Doesn΄t Rule Out Additional Measures



Greek Finance Minister Giorgos Papakonstantinou didn’t rule out the possibility of additional measures on both expenditure and revenue in order to cover the gap in budget execution.

In a briefing on the results of Eurogroup’s meeting, Papakonstantinou tried to justify the failure of 2011 budget, admitting the revenue shortfall in the Jan-Feb period, but stated that it is offset by the corresponding spending cuts.

However, if the problem persists, Greek government should adopt €1.7bn measures.

Asked about the Hellenic Telecommunications Organization (OTE), Papakonstantinou neither confirmed nor ruled out a further sale of state’s stake, but added that he is in constant talks with Deutsche Telekom.

Regarding to utilization of state property, the Finance Minister said that property worth €8bn has been found in the portfolios of non-listed state enterprises, while the privatization program will be discussed on Wednesday.

Papakonstantinou stated that no list of property will be announced on Wednesday, as the initial step regards the registration of the property, while he didn’t rule out developments in Elliniko area even by the summer 2011.

The Minister spoke of the need of the privatization program, as it will help Greece reduce its debt by €20bn and interest by €1bn annually, while he stated the need for ATEbank’s restructure

Additionally, Giorgos Papakonstantinou expressed his optimism for a positive agreement in the European Summit. Borrowing needs for Greece will be €66bn in 2012, he noted. €24bn will come from the EFSF, €25bn from the primary market and the rest from privatizations, stock flow adjustment and treasury bills.

As for the €24bn medium-term package of measures, the minister indicated that it will be finalized by April 1. IMF/EU/ECB representatives are expected to arrive in Athens in early April to discuss with the Greek government on the measures, which will be approved by the cabinet until mid April.


(capital.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Pomeriggio negativo per i nostri GGB.
Lo spread sul decennale sta allargando, ora a 935 pb.
Negativo anche il tratto breve della curva (come da post precedente).

 

[StockExchange]

mi pare di capire che l'ESM, che sara' operativo dal 2013, potra' comprare i bond dai paesi in difficolta' direttamente in asta
per esempio la grecia nel 2013 potrebbe emettere un decennale al 6%, e lo vende all'ESM

Adesso pero' la bce continua a dire che non vuole piu' comprare sul secondario
e l'EFSF attuale non puo' farlo
Quindi non escludo che la bce, fino al 2013, possa mantenere (=essere obbligata) l'impegno di intervenire sul secondario, quando veramente necessario, comprando qualche altro miliardo di bond greci, per poi definitivamente terminare i suoi "aiuti" appena entrera' in funzione l'ESM

Per me tutte queste cose significano che non hanno nessuna intenzione di far fallire nessuno
ma, come detto prima, se volete che la merkel vi dia la garanzia del rimborso a 100, nero su bianco...beh........magari chiedetele pure che vi porti cornetto e cappuccino tutte le mattine!

Il problema è che neanche un interesse del 6% è sostenibile sul lungo periodo.
Il Portogallo è allarmato e ritiene insostenibili interessi proprio di quest'ordine di grandezza.
Tutti gli stati Europei, anche quelli non AAA e a crescita più debole (compreso il nostro) hanno potuto rendere gestibile i loro debiti, spesso enormi (vedi sempre il nostro paese) nell'ambito di una moneta unica e stabile (quindi niente trucchetto della svalutazione, sia per svalutare il debito che per competere sul mercato con i vicini di casa) grazie ai tassi bassi con cui si potevano indebitare, per una impropria quasi-condivisione del merito di credito data dall'appartenenza all'UE, ma era un presupposto da mercato del debito in bolla come tutti i mercati finanziari, nato dal paradigma che non c'è nulla di più sicuro di un titolo di Stato, specie se di paesi evoluti come quelli dell'area Euro. Un po' come la buffonata che tuttora il Safe Heaven dovrebbe essere il Treasury americano (che se non estendono il loro limite costituzionale all'indebitamento massimo, sono già tecnicamente in default). Dopo la grande crisi del 2008-2009 nella quale siamo ancora impantanati, i mercati hanno finalmente prezzato il rischio in modo più attento un po' in tutti gli assets.
Adesso lo spread che paga la Grecia è esattamente quello che meritano i suoi conti pubblici.
Si ironizza spesso sul fatto che sembra assurdo che sia in cima alla lista dei paesi a rischio insieme al Venezuela. Ma non ci trovo nulla di strano. Il Venezuela paga l'incertezza che suscita il suo regime politico (a mettere soldi li devi continuare a sperare che Chavez si alzi sempre dal letto la mattina col piede giusto), ma finanzariamente e come risorse economiche sta di gran lunga meglio e anche se la situazione è in graduale deterioramento, non parte dalla voragine da cui parte la Grecia. La Grecia sta dimostrando buona volontà politica (ma la situazione potrebbe rovesciarsi se dalla piazza montasse un malcontento alla fine incontenibile e magari persino cavalcato da altre forze politiche) e continuando a sperare in una qualche fideiussione europea ci si può illudere che politicamente sia un assetto preferibile, dal lato creditore, a quello Venezuelano (per altro cinicamente mi viene da sottolineare come è più facile adottare cure da cavallo all'economia in regimi autoritari, sempre ammesso che si facciano scelte efficaci, piuttosto che nella concertazione democratica delle parti), ma se guardiamo le finanze pubbliche Greche senza la speranza che mamma Europa accorra e ci rimetta lei qualche cosa...
Bhe...l'è dura...
Quello per cui si sta arrovellando l'Europa, per ora con poca efficacia, è di non sapere come far tornare sui mercati i Piigs a interessi massimo del 4,5% - 5% (e intendo pure per le scadenze molto lontane della curva).
L'unica è di comprare sul primario con i fondi dell'ESFM titoli emessi dai pigs a tassi non di mercato (cioè che non remunerano minimamente il rischio) per molti anni a venire, rifinanziandosi col merito di credito AAA grazie al fatto che la faccia ce la mettono i primi della classe dell'area Euro.
Sarebbe solo interessante capire se potesse calare questa voglia punitiva verso l'incauto investitore (o avido speculatore...) dei titoli di questi paesi, che poi in definitiva è voglia di rappresaglia proprio verso quei paesi stessi, che vengono considerati finanziariamente indisciplinati. Ed è il solito argomento di non far fare le spese al contribuente per i danni della finanza, profitti privati e perdite socializzate. Un po' come la diatriba tra Wall Street e Main Street. Li si sa che alla fine ha vinto nuovamente Wall Street e l'uccello padulo è finito per volare basso sempre con l'usato passo. Qui in Europa il problema è più complesso perché le perdite non verrebbero solo socializzate ma anche comunitarizzate e molti stati non ne vogliono sapere di pagare le voragini altrui. E in primis la Germania, l'azonista di maggioranza dell'Europa, si è data una politica di rigore nei confronti dei propri contribuenti, anche per i propri casini interni con le sue LandesBank, figuriamoci per i casini Greci, Irlandesi & co.

 

[tommy271]

Greek Jan-Feb State Budget Deficit Widens To Revised 9.1%



ATHENS (Dow Jones)--Greece's state budget deficit widened a revised 9.1% in the first two months of the year to EUR1.024 billion, in-line with previous estimates at the start of the month which showed tax collections continue to flag and were only partly offset by efforts to restrain government spending.
In its previous estimate from earlier this month, the government said the deficit for January and February was up 9.0%.
According to the finance ministry, net ordinary budget revenue for the two-month period totaled EUR7.95 billion, down 9.1% on the year and compared with an 8.5% increase targeted in the 2011 budget.
Ordinary budget outlays in January and February were up 3.3% on the year to EUR9.32 billion, and against a 6.6% targeted increase.
The state budget reflects only Greece's central government operations and doesn't include general government accounts, which comprise local government and social security fund accounts, an added portion of military spending, as well as some additional national accounts.

 

[tommy271]

La Borsa di atene ha chiuso poco variata a 1611 punti con - 0,18%. Normali volumi di scambio a 90 MLN.

Pesante invece la giornata sui nostri spread che continuano ad allargare: attualmente intorno a 941 pb.
... e dire che ci aspettavamo una buona settimana ...

 

[tommy271]

State Net Revenues Declined By 9.1%



According to the data available for the State Budget execution for the two months January – February 2011, on a fiscal basis, the State Budget deficit is € 55 million lower than the target set in the 2011 Budget for the first two months of the year. The two first months 2011 State Budget deficit amounts at € 1,024 million compared to a € 1,076 million target.

The 2011 State Budget deficit has grown – as expected – by 8.5% compared to the 2010 deficit during the same period, as a result of the non repetition of some measures as well as the higher than projected GDP decline during the last quarter of 2010, which has been recently revised for the whole year by ELSTAT.

Net revenues of the ordinary budget amounted to € 7,950 million and declined by 9.1%, as a result of the lower receipts from vehicle circulation fees by € 393 million on January 2011 (because the due date for payment was not extended into January 2011, as in 2010), as well as the lower revenues from the extraordinary tax on profits of large companies by € 99 million and the reduced withholding personal income tax by € 414 million during the current two months.

Ordinary budget expenditures increased by 3.3%, due to the allocation of an amount of € 351 million to hospitals for the settlement of past debts, while primary expenditures declined by 0.1% and interest expenditures by 1.4%.

Public Investment Budget (P.I.B.) revenues increased by 354.5% and P.I.B. expenditures declined by 67.9%.

Note that Ordinary Budget net revenue is lower than the two months target, by 860 million €s, while P.I.B. revenue increased by € 603 million and consequently the total State Budget revenue shortfall is restricted to € 257 million. Ordinary Budget expenditure increased by € 284 million comparing to the two months target, while P.I.B. expenditures declined by € 595 million.

Also note that the above data correspond only to the execution of the State Budget deficit and thus do not coincide with the General Government deficit based on the ESA95 (€stat’s) definition, which is the benchmark for the assessment of the Economic Policy Programme of Greece.

(capital.gr)

***
Più dettagliato.

 

[tommy271]

Turnover Index In Industry Rose By 13.9%



The Turnover Index in Industry (both domestic and non-domestic market) in January 2011 compared with January 2010 recorded a rise of 13.9%. In January 2010, the annual rate of change of the Turnover Index in Industry was 0.4%, according to Hellenic Statistical Authority.

The average Turnover Index in Industry for the 12-month period from February 2010 to January 2011, as compared to the 12-month period from February 2009 to January 2010, rose by 6.6%. In January 2009, the corresponding average rate of change of the Turnover Index in Industry was -21.1%.

(capital.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Borsa Atene: Ase chiude in calo dello 0,2%, male blue chip


MILANO (MF-DJ)--L'indice Ase chiude in calo dello 0,2% a 1611,21 punti.
Molti investitori si mantengono cauti in vista del vertice Ue di venerdi'. "Nei mercati vige cautela e il range si mantiene tra i 1600 e i 1620 punti", afferma un analista.
In calo i titoli blue chip a causa delle prese di profitto dopo i guadagni di ieri. Nbg cede l'1,7%, Ote lo 0,1% e Coca-Cola Hellenic l'1,3%.
Alpha Bank perde il 3,6% ed Eurobank il 3,7%.

 

[tommy271]

Greek Banks Dragged ASE Down



Net turnover (excluding block trades) stood below €90mn for a second consecutive session, as the General Index ended with marginal losses on Tuesday after a fluctuation within a narrow margin of 18 units.

In a weak session, investors traded with small and selective moves, ahead of the announcement of results of Greek listed companies and the European Union Summit later this week.

Investors maintain a wait-and-see stance, as there are doubts whether the outcome of the EU Summit will be positive for Greece, according to analysts.

They note that the resolutions of the Ecofin meeting yesterday and the extraordinary EU meeting last week were positive, however the nervousness will remain until European leaders formalize their decisions.

“Day-to-day volatility should persist”, said Kyprou Securities in its morning report. European developments, unrest in Libya and Japanese disaster should affect international markets including the Athens Exchange.

“The publishing of 2010FY results of major local banks and potential surprises could possibly disturb a strong correlation of the ASE versus major EU equity markets”, Kyprou added, while Pegasus Securities noted that an increase of the trading volume would be significant, as turnovers below €100mn cannot support a strong upward course.

Across the board, the General Index ended at 1611.21 units, with losses of 0.18%. Approximately 25.78 million units worth €90.98 million were traded on Tuesday, while a total amount of 87 shares declined, 66 rose and 130 remained unchanged.

Banks fell by 1.84%, at 1371.01 units. Bank of Cyprus posted profits of 0.75%, while Eurobank, Alpha Bank and Proton Bank fell by 3.70%, 3.56% and 3.49% respectively. Marfin Popular Bank, Hellenic Postbank and National Bank declined by 2.11%, 1.88% and 1.74% respectively.

(capital.gr)