Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (18 lettori)

[Grisù]

Non che ci volesse Fitch a capirlo....

Fitch: Greece unlikely to return to markets in FY12
A Fitch official said yesterday in an interview that it is unlikely that Greece will be able to tap the capital markets in FY12, and maybe not even in FY13. The official said that the main concerns for the country are the fiscal adjustment and the return to growth. Note that Eurogroup meets on Friday to discuss, among other things, the progress of Greece's fiscal consolidation program and the government's privatization plan.

Banks: Moody’s places Bulgaria’s ‘Baa3’ rating on review for possible upgrade
The move follows the agency’s view over a strong government balance sheet and ongoing fiscal caution and the high priority of the government on improving institutional strength, among others. Regarding the banking system, Moody’s says that it is wellcapitalized and liquid, despite the relatively high NPLs. Yet, the Greek-owned banks are a source of potential risk. Moody’s said that it will try to evaluate how vulnerable Bulgaria’s macro stability could be to a deepening of the Greek crisis. Recall that all major Greek banks have exposure to Bulgaria.

 

[tommy271]

Greek Sovereign Debt Remains Riskiest In World During 1Q - CMA



LONDON (Dow Jones)--Greece was more likely to default on its debt than any other country in the world during the first quarter, a position it retained for the second consecutive quarter, data-provider CMA said Thursday.
There was a 58% chance of Greece needing to restructure its debt within five years during the first three months of the year, CMA said.
There was no change to the top six riskiest countries, with Greece followed by Venezuela, Ireland, Portugal, Argentina and Ukraine.
Greece has been a focal point of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. According to CMA, its five-year credit default swap rallied 200 basis points in January, but widened back out to a high of 1,100 basis points following rating downgrades by Moody's Investors Service Inc. in early March.
CDS are derivatives that function like a default insurance contract for debt. If a borrower defaults, sellers compensate buyers.
Spain and Hungary moved out of the top 10 countries most likely to default, replaced by Egypt and Lebanon, which were hit by the political unrest.
Conversely, Norway was the country least likely to default on its debt within five years, followed by Sweden, Finland, Switzerland and the Netherlands.
CMA quantified the default probabilities using an industry standard model and its own credit data.



***
Un primato che faremmo volentieri a meno ...

 

[tommy271]

Prosegue il momento positivo alla Borsa di Atene con l'indice ASE a 1550 a + 1,46%. Volumi normali.

Anche i nostri spread continuano a tenere le posizioni, in un trading range stabile ma con qualche connotazione al restringimento. Non mancano le puntate verso l'allargamento, ma rientrano prontamente.
Attualmente a 940 pb., sotto i minimi della giornata di ieri nel periodo di max contrattazione.

 

[g.ln]

La Grecia: troppo piccola per farla fallire!!!

sono cose che gia' sappiamo e sanno TUTTI
NESSUNO , attualmente, puo' toccare i NOSTRI GGB
anche se solo mi allungano la scadenza di 1 giorno, e' DEFAULT
quindi rating immediato a D, il che significa che sei fuori dai mercati
e tralascio tutte le conseguenze sugli altri pigs....

io sinceramente (con questo non voglio incitare nessuno a comprare) non capisco di cosa vi preoccupate
l'europa ha (quasi) messo sul tavolo OTTOCENTOMILIARDI
la grecia ne ha una 30ina l'anno da rimborsare
e' troppo piccola per farla fallire
voi direte, proprio perche' e' piccola, il fallimento non creerebbe grossi danni
invece e' proprio il contrario
se TUTTI, usa, fmi,bce,ue, mettiamoci pure i cinesi e i brasiliani, stanno facendo di tutto per salvare la grecia, e non riescono a salvare uno stato cosi' piccolo, con un debito cosi' insignificante (l'italia solo quest'anno deve rinnovare circa 300MLD, ossia un debito pari a quello intero della grecia che e' distribuito su 30anni), sarebbe la dimostrazione che tutte ste invenzioni, efsf esm non servono a NIENTE, quindi altro che salvare irlanda-portogallo etc etc

Concordo sull'apparente paradosso .
Buona mattinata a tutti gli amici, con i nostri titoli che sotto lo zoccolo duro non ci vanno .
Ciao, Giuseppe

 

[tommy271]

IMF/EU/ECB Extends Deadline For Political Decisions



IMF/EU/ECB have asked for further cost cutting in public enterprises, faster implementation of privatization program and more efficient measures against tax evasion, and expects political decisions until next week.

In the wake of Portugal’s request for a bailout loan, Troika representatives have set a deadline for Greek government until April 15 in order to proceed with political decisions. They also asked to be constantly filled in on any change in the proposed measures and the unsettled yet state deficit.

European Union and European Central Bank representatives are expected to focus in Portugal’s issue. They will be supervised by Servaas Deroose’s team. Deroose, who is well-known in Greece since his statement regarding the €50b privatization program, has been replaced on Wednesday by Jurgen Kruger, as usually requests for rescue loans are already known by institutions and finance ministers.

The immediate departure of the remaining representatives should not be ruled out, according to sources. The prolonged stay was planned to exert pressure on Greek government under the shadow of a possible non-disbursement of the next aid installment. Moreover:

The issue of 2010 and 2011 deficit was not formally on the agenda as the figures are under revision. They expected to be settled by April 26, while an early report of the first quarter deficit will be available on April 10. Provision data show that the revenue problem remains, and the gap reaches €1.5b.

Mid-term package has not been finalized, as Finance Minister’s proposals face strong internal opposition. Troika and Ministry have discussed possible scenarios of measures worth more than €22b, according to sources.

Troika has raised clear objections about revenues issue, which reportedly has been strengthened as a ratio. The government is looking for ways to combat tax evasion and insurance contribution evasion in order to raise more than €10b to avoid implementing further painful measures.

However, Troika expressed doubts, given the unfavorable course of budget execution and requested additional measures in public enterprises. It considers crucial the acceleration of privatization and criticized the fact that no actual movements have been made.

(capital.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Concordo sull'apparente paradosso .
Buona mattinata a tutti gli amici, con i nostri titoli che sotto lo zoccolo duro non ci vanno .
Ciao, Giuseppe

C'è anche da dire che il movimento di restringimento degli spread è ancora lieve sulla Grecia, più importante sul Portogallo e di buona portata sull'Irlanda.
Speriamo di seguirli ...

 

[tommy271]

Greek 2010 deficit topped 10 percent, needs action - source





ATHENS | Thu Apr 7, 2011 10:24am BST



ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece's 2010 budget deficit will be revised to above 10 percent of GDP, requiring corrective measures to stem spillover effects, a source close to the country's international lenders told Reuters on Thursday.
The government's latest official estimate of last year's deficit was 9.4 percent, while its lenders -- the 'troika' of European Commission, IMF and ECB -- saw it at 9.6 percent. The initial target was about 8 percent of GDP.
"It is clearly above 10 percent," the official close to the troika said after Athens discussed the figure with its lenders during an inspection visit this week.
Greece's statistics office ELSTAT sent data to its EU counterpart Eurostat last week, and discussions are ongoing about the exact number, officials said. Eurostat is due to publish its estimate on April 26.
"Whether the final number is 10.2, 10.5 or anywhere close to that, in any case, this will require action because of spillover effects," the official said.
Asked about reports that the deficit could range between 10.4 and 10.7 percent of GDP, the source close to the troika said: "This is exactly where we stand now with ELSTAT, but the (Finance) Ministry believes it can be brought lower."
Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in Italy on Friday that the deficit would be higher than originally estimated but he gave no new estimate.
Without citing sources, Greece's Kathimerini newspaper wrote over the weekend that last year's deficit may be revised to 10.6 percent of GDP.
With its 230 billion euro (201 billion pound) economy in its third straight year of recession, generating revenue growth to further cut the deficit is proving difficult. The economy is expected to contract 3 percent this year after a 4.5 percent slump in 2010.
At the end of 2009, a much bigger revision of the deficit triggered the crisis that brought Greece close to bankruptcy and shook the whole euro zone, spilling over to Ireland and Portugal.
In October 2009, the new Socialist government estimated the 2009 deficit at 12.7 percent of GDP, more than double the previous administration's estimate. It has since been revised to 15.4 percent of GDP.

 

[tommy271]

Greek Stocks Maintain Upward Trend



Portugal’s request for a bailout loan from the European Union is in the centre of attention on Thursday, as the General Index moves upwards to the level of 1,550 units.

Banks top FTSE20 profits, as the performance of Eurobank and Alpha Bank stands out with profits of more than 4%, while banking index, which yesterday put an end to a seven-session downward streak, gains up to 3.25%.

“Yesterday΄s strong ascending reaction was promising, as bid-side interest was spilled over all across the large-cap equities, with trading volume slightly increasing to €115.4m”, says Pegasus Securities in its morning report.

Pegasus expects the market΄s ascending dynamic to continue, “even if it slightly decelerates, gradually bringing the GI towards the region marked by the pass of the simple 200-days moving average (1,550 units)”, it adds.

Portugal΄s decision to seek a bailout is not expected to increase market volatility, as Pegasus regards that it has been long awaited.

Across the board, the General Index is at 1,548.31 units, enhanced by 1.28% on a turnover of €42.5m. A total amount of 77 shares rise, 27 decline and 23 remain unchanged.

Banks soar by 3.06%, at 1275.77 units. Alpha Bank and Eurobank gain 4.36% and 4.26% respectively, while Hellenic Postbank , National Bank and Piraeus Bank rise by 3.01%, 2.93% and 2.92% respectively. Marfin Popular, Geniki Bank and Attica Bank post profits of more than 2%. ATEbank remains unchanged.

(capital.gr)

 

[samantaao]

BERLINO, 7 aprile (Reuters) - Gli otto maggiori istituti di ricerca economica tedeschi si aspettano che il debito sovrano della Grecia venga ristrutturato.

"Per quanto riguarda la Grecia ci sarà una ristrutturazione" ha detto Kai Carstensen, economista senior presso l'Istituto Ifo, in una conferenza stampa.

Il debito sovrano Grecia - ha aggiunto - sta crescendo velocemente. Il pericolo per l'Irlanda e il Portogallo non è così elevato.

Il governo greco ha ripetutamente escluso la possibilità di una ristrutturazione e anche la stessa Banca centrale europea si oppone ad essa.

 

[tommy271]

BERLINO, 7 aprile (Reuters) - Gli otto maggiori istituti di ricerca economica tedeschi si aspettano che il debito sovrano della Grecia venga ristrutturato.

"Per quanto riguarda la Grecia ci sarà una ristrutturazione" ha detto Kai Carstensen, economista senior presso l'Istituto Ifo, in una conferenza stampa.

Il debito sovrano Grecia - ha aggiunto - sta crescendo velocemente. Il pericolo per l'Irlanda e il Portogallo non è così elevato.

Il governo greco ha ripetutamente escluso la possibilità di una ristrutturazione e anche la stessa Banca centrale europea si oppone ad essa.

Quelli dell'IFO è da più di un anno che ripetono le stesse cose, prima dicevano che la Grecia doveva defaultare ... poi hanno corretto il tiro: ora dicono "haircut" o "ristrutturazione".
Sull'ultima parola poi, ci stà dentro tutto ...