Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (12 lettori)

[IL MARATONETA]

credo che tutti oramai siamo dei quasi-esperti di economia
neanche nelle scuole c'è tutto questo interesse come il nostro...

il vero problema penso, adesso che mi sono aggiornato, non sarà la Grecia che tutto sommato è una goccia nel mare ma la Spagna...

vedrete che dopo il Portogallo ben sistemato cominceranno a "corteggiarla",
speriamo siano solo sospetti ma da sempre sul forum ci dicevamo che non è necessariamente la Grecia che deve aprire la falla per far colare a picco il traghetto... quindi attenzione alla Grecia ma non è l'unica da osservare!

Noloss, io non ho le nozioni nè l'autorevolezza di tommy, ma credo che la spagna si stia tirando fuori dal pantano dei PIGS; questo posso affermarlo in quanto come investitore in "obles" ho seguito in questi mesi le vicende spagnole e posso dirti che il differenziale dello spread tra bund e obles si è ridotto in maniera notevole, scendendo da oltre 220 punti base ai 173 di venerdi. Penso anche, che se il portogallo ricorrerà, come sembra, agli aiuti finanziari, per sostenere il proprio debito, la spagna ne avrà un beneficio notevole in quanto gran parte del debito portoghese è in mano a banche spagnole.

 

[IL MARATONETA]

Mi iscrivo anch'io al gruppo dei moderatamente positivi (o dei poveri illusi, come dice Gaudente ).

Mi figuro i seguenti scenari con le relative probabilità (molto a braccio):
1. debito regolarmente onorato : 30%
2. rinegoziazione volontaria del debito : 30%
3. singolo default con recovery rate > 50% : 20%
4. default o serie di default con recovery rate finale < 50% : 20%

Il tutto riferito ai prossimi 15 anni, visto che ho le ggbei 2025.
Come CDP mi verrebbe tra il 40% e il 70% (a seconda che si consideri anche la rinegoziazione volontaria default, come fanno certe agenzie di rating, o meno, personalmente non la considero tale).
Il CDP stimato dal mercato è del 57% sui prossimi 5 anni, quindi direi che le mie personali probabilità sono ottimistiche ma non del tutto fuori mercato.

Moltiplicando i gain/loss dei 4 scenari per le rispettive probabilità esce un numero positivo, quindi ritengo le ggbei siano ancora un buon affare...

Per contro, ci sono alcune news negative:
1. il deficit greco 2010 più alto rispetto alle proiezioni;
2. la ricapitalizzazione in atto delle banche europee, che renderà più praticabili soluzioni con taglio del nominale e relativi write-off.


Buona Grecia a tutti!

Grazie give.., per la risposta; interessanti anche le percentuali che hai dato, relatimente agli scenari futuri. Il debito onorato, al primo posto nel tuo elenco con la percentuale del 30%, giustamente ti colloca nel gruppo dei moderatamente positivi che a questo punto raggiunge i ragionevolmente positivi.

 

[tommy271]

Schaeuble:To Find Solution If Greece Fails To Gain Mkt-Access



GODOLLO, Hungary (MNI)- If Greece is unable to partially finance its needs in the financial markets as of mid-2012, as planned, its European partners will find a solution, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Saturday.
Speaking at a press conference following a meeting of European finance ministers and central bankers here, Schaeuble reiterated that Portugal's decision to ask for financial aid from the EU and the IMF is welcome and should help ensure financial stability in the Eurozone. But he was not willing to make any specific projections about the size and terms of a Portuguese bailout package.
Asked about potential solutions should Greece fail to regain market access by mid-2012, Schaeuble said the issue will be discussed at the latest in June when the next review of the Greek program is due.
Schaeuble acknowledged that Greece's upcoming refinancing needs are "significant" but said any problem that emerges could be tackled with "reasonable cooperation." European authorities will "closely monitor" whether the stretched out repayment period will be sufficient and will "draw the necessary consequences."
However, Schaeuble said that speculating about problems that have not occurred yet would not be helpful in the current circumstances.
As regards the terms for the Irish bailout program, Schaeuble said it was up to the "Irish authorities -- similar to Greece -- to make proposals on what [Ireland] will be willing to do for its part." Without such proposals, a change in terms would unlikely be forthcoming, he said.
Schaeuble was not ready to discuss the upcoming program for Portugal, noting that preparations were only beginning. However, he welcomed the decision by the Portuguese authorities to seek aid, saying it would help ringfence the debt troubles in the common currency area.
"We are on a good path towards stabilizing the euro, and financial markets share that view," he said. "All the numbers suggest that contagion risks have receded."

 

[Baro]

Se posso anch'io esprimermi credo di sentirmi moderatamente positivo

 

[tommy271]

Germany Warns About Greek Debt, Defying Efforts to Snuff Out the Crisis

By James G. Neuger and Rainer Buergin - Apr 11, 2011 1:01 AM GMT+0200 Sun Apr 10 23:01:00 GMT 2011

April 7 (Bloomberg) --




Germany warned that deficit-scarred Greece might need more financial relief, reviving European debt concerns just as Portugal seeks an 80 billion-euro ($116 billion) aid package.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said it is unclear whether Greece, the root of the year-old debt crisis, will need another cut in its bailout rate or a further extension of repayment terms to return to fiscal health.
“We, also the Greek government and the Greek colleague, can’t say for good today whether that’s enough,” Schaeuble told reporters after an April 9 meeting of European finance officials in Godollo, Hungary. “Whether that is enough and how this continues will have to be monitored closely.”
Germany’s doubts conflicted with official assertions that Greece is on the right track, defying efforts to put an end to the crisis that threatened the survival of the euro, postwar Europe’s signature economic achievement. Last week’s increase in European Central Bank interest rates for the first time in almost three years throws a further cloud over weaker economies.
Bond investors are charging Greece 938 basis points more than Germany to borrow for 10 years. The spread for Ireland, the second country to obtain aid, is 577 basis points. Portugal, aiming for a relief plan by mid-May, pays an extra 518 basis points.
Officials including ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet dismissed suggestions that Greece might not be able to repay its debt, saying budget cuts, tax increases and 50 billion euros in asset sales will bandage its economy.


‘Solid Plan’

“We do exclude restructuring,” European Union Economic and Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn said. “We have a solid plan. It is based on a very careful analysis of debt sustainability.”
The Greek government predicts that the clampdown on spending will shrink the economy by 3 percent in 2011, the third straight contraction. EU forecasts show debt peaking at 159.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2012, the year Greece is supposed to return to the markets for financing.
Greece might need more time to pay back debts to bondholders, in a “rescheduling” that would not be classified as a default, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Secretary-General Angel Gurria said.
“The adjustment program of a country like Greece is a very painful program, and if a rescheduling of the payments is something which is required in order to make those difficult policies work, then that is what should be done,” Gurria told Bloomberg Television.


Lower Greek Rates

Euro-area ministers confirmed plans to loosen Greece’s economic noose, lengthening the maturities on its 110 billion- euro aid package to 7 1/2 years from 3 years and cutting the average lending rate by 1 percentage point to around 3.5 percent.
“For Greece to put its fiscal problems behind it, and to create a positive environment for growth, it still needs to do a lot of hard work,” David Mackie, chief European economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London, said in a research note.
Ireland has made less progress in winning a cut in the 5.8 percent rate on its 67.5 billion euros in loans, facing pressure from Germany and France to first lift its 12.5 percent corporate tax rate, about half the EU average.
“There’s no question of any concession on the corporate tax rate being made by Ireland,” Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan said. “We’ll explore alternatives.”


Portuguese Politics

Portugal’s aid negotiations, set to start tomorrow, collide with a campaign for early elections that were triggered after the opposition on March 23 balked at proposals for additional savings of 4.5 percent of GDP over three years.
“Discussing deeply unpopular measures ahead of elections will not be easy,” Gilles Moec, a London-based economist at Deutsche Bank AG, said in a research note. “Some volatile newsflow is likely to emerge in the next few days from Lisbon.”
In addition to budget cuts and the sale of state assets, Portugal will be pressed to lessen regulations that have helped keep its annual economic growth rate below 1 percent for the past decade, one of Europe’s worst records.
The EU set a mid-May deadline to arrange a three-year lending program. Rehn called the 80-billion-euro aid estimate “very, very preliminary.”
As with the first two bailouts, two-thirds of the loans would come from the EU and one-third from the International Monetary Fund. The Washington-based global lender is “prepared to move expeditiously,” Managing Director Dominique Strauss- Kahn said on April 8.


The Bill

“I never write a check before I see the bill,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said. “Work has to be done quickly.”
Politics in the bill-paying countries will also play a role, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s popularity suffering and polls showing a surge in support for a euro-skeptic party in Finland’s April 17 elections.
Finnish Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen, a candidate for prime minister, said Portugal must enact deficit cuts that go beyond the measures rejected last month in parliament.
“The package must be really strict because otherwise it doesn’t make any sense,” Katainen said in Godollo. “The package must be harder and more comprehensive than the one the parliament voted against.”
Finance chiefs sent a more positive message on Spain, praising its austerity measures and cleanup of savings bank debt. In a sign of confidence in Spain’s financial management, Spain’s bond spread has been compressed to 178 basis points from 283 basis points on Nov. 30.
“I do not see any risk of contagion,” Spanish Finance Minister Elena Salgado said. “We are totally out of this.”



(Bloomberg)


***
Per Angel Gurria dell'OCSE, possibile un riscadenziamento dei bond.

 

[tommy271]

Several EMU Fin Mins Favor Greek Debt Restructuring: Press



BERLIN (MNI) - Several finance ministers of Eurozone member states argued at a telephone conference on April 2 for a restructuring of Greece's sovereign debt, German weekly Der Spiegel reported over the weekend, citing no sources for its claim.
ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet, who also took part in the telephone conference, fiercely opposed a restructuring, arguing that it could prompt a confidence crisis for the whole Eurozone, the magazine wrote. "I'm not willing to talk about this," Trichet told the finance ministers according to Der Spiegel.
Moreover, a Greek debt restructuring could threaten some banks which hold a large amount of Greek government bonds, Trichet asserted, according to the magazine.
Der Spiegel wrote that German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and fellow Eurozone finance ministers are getting increasingly angry about Trichet's stubborn refusal to countenance a restructuring of Greece's debt. They argue that it is highly unlikely that Greece will be able to turn to the markets for funding next year, the magazine reported.
The only alternative to a restructuring of Greek debt would be additional financial aid for Greece from its Eurozone peers, Der Spiegel wrote. Yet, Schaeuble already told Trichet that Germany has no real intention to top up its aid for Greece, according to the magazine.
Other Eurozone governments are also unwilling to hand out additional financial aid to Greece, Der Spiegel reported. According to the magazine, the finance ministers agreed that they cannot force Greece to restructure its debt, but that nobody can prevent the Greek government from starting negotiations with its creditors about a restructuring either.
Last week, Greek parliamentary president Philippos Petsalnikos said in Berlin that Greece had no plans to restructure its debt and was committed to fulfilling its financial obligations.
"I can categorically rule out that there will be a restructuring or a haircut," Petsalnikos told the European affairs committee of the German parliament. "We are committed to sticking to our commitments towards our creditors," he stressed.
"We will continue on our path to reduce the deficit," the Greek politician vowed. "This way we will be able to get out of our bad situation. We are determined to win this bet."
A restructuring of the Greek debt would be negative not only for Greece but for the whole of the Eurozone, Petsalnikos warned. "That is why we're not discussing a restructuring...We will repay our debt," he reaffirmed. He later stressed that Greece is discussing a debt restructuring "neither openly nor internally."



***
Dibattito acceso tra Trichet, Schaeuble e greci.

 

[tommy271]

Economic policy, privatizations at center of activity

A week of crucial meetings for PM Papandreou and his team

The government is set for a busy week, during which it is expected to present finalized plans of its economic policy between 2012 and 2015 and for its privatization program.
However, this will take place against a backdrop of considerable upheaval within the ruling PASOK party.
A number of Socialist MPs have already voiced their concern about the direction of the government’s economic policy and have suggested that Greece needs to renegotiate the terms of its emergency loan agreement with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund before taking any more measures.
Prime Minister George Papandreou will begin his week by attending on Monday the presentation at the Development Ministry of the government’s plans to allow entrepreneurs to set up companies within 24 hours.
It is likely that later in the day, the Cabinet will be briefed by Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou about the plan for the 2012-2015 period. The issue of privatizations is also likely to be on the agenda.
On Tuesday, European Council president Herman Van Rompuy will visit Athens and it is possible that the Greek government might make public some of its privatization plans with the aim of raising 50 billion euros by 2015.
On Wednesday, Papandreou is set to chair a meeting of PASOK’s parliamentary group, when he is likely to try and quell any rebellion within the Socialist party and urge MPs to pull together.
On Thursday or Friday, the Cabinet is due to meet again to finalize the details of the 2012-2015 plan and to agree on measures designed to boost growth.






ekathimerini.com , Monday April 11, 2011 (06:12)

 

[tommy271]

Restructuring? It's child's play

By Nick Malkoutzis




Anyone who is a parent or has looked after a small child will be familiar with the dreaded moment when a toddler tells you, “I didn’t do anything.” Once you hear these words, it’s a sure bet that you will find food on the floor, toys smashed to pieces or crayon scrawls on the wall. But it’s not just kids that employ these naively transparent methods, politicians are pretty adept at using them too.
It was, therefore, pretty easy to see through the government’s spin doctors this week as they insisted that the issue of debt restructuring did not come up at all during a meeting in Athens between Prime Minister George Papandreou and renowned financier George Soros. Visiting George did not mention the subject even once, government sources told journalists.
The claims sounded absurd and appeared even more so when it was revealed that Soros had discussed exactly this issue in an interview with Kathimerini. For what it’s worth, the financial guru said that if Greece needs to restructure its debt, it should do so in a much milder form than just asking its investors to accept a “haircut,” or a reduction on their returns. Instead, he proposed that the principal should remain unchanged and that the government should negotiate a lower interest rate and an extension to the notes’ maturities.
Soros’s opinions are among a host that have been heard on the issue of debt restructuring this week. The Greek government, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund have all being trying to put out the fires that have been lit by reports, particularly in the German media, quoting unnamed sources who claim that talks have already begun behind the scenes about how Athens can ease its debt burden by asking investors to take a hit.
“We support the Greek government in its decision not to restructure its debt,” said IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn in response to an article in German magazine Der Spiegel. It is noticeable that Strauss-Kahn’s response does not rule out the possibility of debt restructuring but simply expresses support for the official line of the Greek government, which is that the issue is not up for discussion at all.
However, with Greek debt expected to hit 153 percent of gross domestic product -- or 345 billion euros -- by the end of the year, the numbers appear to betray the belief that the restructuring bullet can be dodged. “Given the slow progress of reforms, default seems inevitable,” Dimitri Vayanos, a professor of finance at the London School of Economics, told Kathimerini English Edition. “So some form of debt restructuring will have to take place sooner or later.
“Restructuring should be orderly, negotiated in close collaboration with the EU and the IMF and accompanied by a commitment by Greece for further reforms,” he added. “Ideally, restructuring should be done in a couple of years, once public finances have improved and the Greek economy can better stand on its feet. But if reforms continue at their disappointingly slow pace, the EU-IMF support might cease, and Greece might be forced into an early restructuring.”
Debt restructuring as soon as possible is what some people would like to see and what some experts are advising. The respected Brussels-based think tank Bruegel is one of those that has already advised that Greece should cut its losses and organize an orderly retreat. A paper it produced in February recommended that restructuring happen “sooner rather than later.”
Bruegel argues that any hopes of avoiding restructuring are pie in the sky. Its calculations point to an annual primary surplus of 8.4 percent of GDP being needed so that Greece can reduce its public debt to 60 percent of GDP, as agreed in the terms of its eurozone membership, by 2034. Since the fall of the military dictatorship in 1974, Greece has only produced a continuous primary surplus between 1994 and 2002 and even then the highest rate was just 4.3 percent of GDP.
In Bruegel’s view, a delay in restructuring would mean bondholders would have to accept a bigger haircut in the future and that Greece would be unable to return to the markets in 2013 as investors would be pricing in the cost a default. “It would be a very sad end to the first decade of the euro area, but if something is not sustainable and you try to muddle through then the outcome could be worse for everyone involved, including the Greek government, the Greek people, Greek banks and creditors,” Zsolt Darvas, one of the report’s authors, told Kathimerini English Edition in February.
Bruegel believes that the spillover on other European countries and financial institutions of an organized haircut would have “a manageable impact on banks in the rest of the euro area.” Eurozone banks hold about 50 billion euros in Greek debt but domestic lenders are far more exposed to the potential side effects of restructuring as they possess about 70 billion euros. This is why restructuring has to be properly thought through and planned.
“Some Greek banks hold significant quantities of Greek government bonds, partly because of political pressure, and hence are vulnerable to a restructuring,” said Vayanos. “Careful consideration should be given to these banks’ solvency, and some external funds (EU/IMF) might need to be used to preserve the health of the banking system.
“The bigger issue, however, is to maintain the long-term health of the banking system, and this requires reducing political interference in banks,” he added. “The current moves of appointing a government representative in each bank go precisely in the wrong direction. Banks need regulation, but not in the form of covert political interference.”
It seems that the frantic debate over restructuring is overshadowing a number of big issues, as Strauss-Kahn suggested earlier this week. “Debt restructuring would not solve the key problem Greece faces, which is its lack of competitiveness,” he said. “Greece cannot escape the fact that it needs to become more competitive.”
The view among many economists is that while restructuring could set Greece on the path to recovery, it will not be enough on its own to lead the country on its journey. “Strauss-Kahn is absolutely right,” said Vayanos. “Greece’s economy is dysfunctional because of its poor management and lack of reform over the past 30 years. The high level of debt is one manifestation of dysfunctionality, but not the cause.
“The cause is a lack of market-friendly reforms that can make the economy competitive. Such reforms should aim at providing a stable institutional framework that promotes competition, investment and entrepreneurship. This requires abolishing many existing regulations and enforcing more vigorously the few that matter. Additionally, competitiveness requires long-term investment in education and infrastructure, which can be productive only if performance is evaluated and rewarded.”
It is clear that much more onerous tasks await the government than organizing a debt restructuring. However, the discussion about these reforms will have to wait. In the meantime, we are going to have to endure the government’s attempt to manage the media debate over whether haircuts are on the way. But for most of us it is obvious that it is just empty talk, that the options have run out. The toddler is pleading his innocence but the writing is already on the wall.






ekathimerini.com , Wednesday April 6, 2011 (22:32)

***
Il parere di un commentatore del Kathimerini.

 

[Grisù]

I sondaggi attualmente aggiungono poco alla discussione poichè dimenticate di aggiungere le principali variabili dei prossimi anni ovvero assetto politico greco e nuovo presidente della Bce.
Nel breve, sino al 2012, dubito ci saranno ristrutturazioni. In seguito, gli scenari saranno molteplici ed equiprobabili allo stato attuale.

 

[tommy271]

German Two-Year Yield Reaches 28-Month High Amid Greek Warnings

April 11, 2011, 2:44 AM EDT

By Lucy Meakin
April 11 (Bloomberg) -- German two-year note yields reached the highest since December 2008 as the nation warned that deficit-scarred Greece might need more financial relief, reviving European debt concerns just as Portugal seeks an 80 billion-euro ($116 billion) aid package.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said it is unclear whether Greece will need another cut in its bailout rate or extension of repayment terms. He spoke after a meeting of European Union finance ministers and central bank chiefs on April 9.
The yield on the two-year note gained two basis points to 1.92 percent as of 7:40 a.m. in London, after reaching 1.93 percent, the highest since Dec. 17, 2008. The 1.5 percent security maturing March 2013 fell 0.03, or 0.3 euros per 1,000- euro ($1,429) face amount, to 99.21. The benchmark 10-year bund yield was little changed at 3.48 percent.
France plans to auction 7.5 billion euros of 84-, 175- and 357-day Treasury bills today, while Germany is scheduled to sell 5 billion euros of 6-month bills.
The bonds of the euro-region’s most-indebted nations were little changed, with the Irish 10-year yield at 9.24 percent and the equivalent-maturity Greek yield at 12.86 percent. Spanish 10-year yields were also little changed, at 5.26 percent.