Rottweiler
Forumer storico
Messaggio molto negativo da parte di Schaeuble:
UPDATE 1-Germany acknowledges Greece may need to restructure deb | Reuters
UPDATE 1-Germany acknowledges Greece may need to restructure deb | Reuters
Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (35 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
IL MARATONETA
Forumer storico
e tu rottweiler, che parere hai, da investitore, in merito alla situazione dei ggb?
Rottweiler
Forumer storico
Ciao,
non saprei come classificarmi, se dovessi utilizzare una delle categorie da te indicate.
Posso solo dire che , da investitore che deve rischiare i propri soldi, i TdS greci sono troppo rischiosi per me. A metà marzo ero entrato nel 2014 per una serie di ragioni che avevo elencato. Una di queste era l'imminente ufficializzazione dell'EMS (24-25 marzo). Un'ora dopo la diffusione dell'indiscrezione che rimandava tale approvazione, sono uscito.
giub
New Membro
Contrary To Previous Lies, Greece May Not Be Able To Access Capital Markets After All; Likely To See 50% Creditor Haircuts
Following the just completed teleprompted preaching of concentrated, yet inverse, truthiness, we find that yet another bankrupt country has in fact been lying about its economic prospects. Following the recent stunning disclosure out of Portugal that contrary to constat promises to the contrary the country was in fact, broke, now we get another admission, this time from a country already bankrupt. Per the FT: "Greece needs time to convince international investors about its reform programme and may not be able to return to financial markets next year as planned, its finance minister has admitted. Greece’s budget plans are fully funded this year but Athens will have to raise between €25bn-€30bn on financial markets in 2012 – a step that would mark the first stage of its international rehabilitation. But Mr Papaconstantinou suggested that goal was in doubt and the timetable would not become clearer until an EU-IMF agreement had been struck for Portugal, the latest victim in the eurozone debt crisis. “A judgment cannot be made before the summer and before Portugal closes its deal,” he said." So now it is trendy for one broke country to bash another broke country? In retrospect Greece should have a right of first refusal of bailout funding: after all it first (was forced to) disclose its bankruptcy. Surely there should be some brownie points for that. But all this may well be moot: Germany is now openly saying the need for a Greek restructuring is coming. Which means that senior creditor haircuts (supposedly up to 50%) are imminent.
From Reuters:
Following the just completed teleprompted preaching of concentrated, yet inverse, truthiness, we find that yet another bankrupt country has in fact been lying about its economic prospects. Following the recent stunning disclosure out of Portugal that contrary to constat promises to the contrary the country was in fact, broke, now we get another admission, this time from a country already bankrupt. Per the FT: "Greece needs time to convince international investors about its reform programme and may not be able to return to financial markets next year as planned, its finance minister has admitted. Greece’s budget plans are fully funded this year but Athens will have to raise between €25bn-€30bn on financial markets in 2012 – a step that would mark the first stage of its international rehabilitation. But Mr Papaconstantinou suggested that goal was in doubt and the timetable would not become clearer until an EU-IMF agreement had been struck for Portugal, the latest victim in the eurozone debt crisis. “A judgment cannot be made before the summer and before Portugal closes its deal,” he said." So now it is trendy for one broke country to bash another broke country? In retrospect Greece should have a right of first refusal of bailout funding: after all it first (was forced to) disclose its bankruptcy. Surely there should be some brownie points for that. But all this may well be moot: Germany is now openly saying the need for a Greek restructuring is coming. Which means that senior creditor haircuts (supposedly up to 50%) are imminent.
From Reuters:
Germany acknowledged for the first time on Wednesday that Greece may need to restructure its debt but said such a step could only be pursued before 2013 if it were done on a voluntary basis.
In an interview with Die Welt newspaper, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Wednesday "additional steps" would have to be taken to deal with Greece's huge debt burden if an analysis from the European Central Bank and European Commission in June showed it is unsustainable.
When asked by the daily how Greece, or other countries like Portugal, would ever be able to eliminate their "mountains of debt", Schaeuble said:
"In June we will get a progress report. I'm expecting a detailed analysis on the debt sustainability of Greece, that will be done in consultation with the Commission and the ECB. If this report concludes that there are doubts about the debt sustainability of Greece, something must be done about it."
Uh, doubts? In an interview with Die Welt newspaper, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Wednesday "additional steps" would have to be taken to deal with Greece's huge debt burden if an analysis from the European Central Bank and European Commission in June showed it is unsustainable.
When asked by the daily how Greece, or other countries like Portugal, would ever be able to eliminate their "mountains of debt", Schaeuble said:
"In June we will get a progress report. I'm expecting a detailed analysis on the debt sustainability of Greece, that will be done in consultation with the Commission and the ECB. If this report concludes that there are doubts about the debt sustainability of Greece, something must be done about it."
Schaeuble made clear, however, that any restructuring would have to happen on a voluntary basis if done before 2013, when new rules go into effect that envision private creditors shouldering losses in the event debt relief is provided to stricken euro zone states
"Until then a restructuring could only take place on a voluntary basis," Schaeuble said.
Yes, bankers are just lining up to be forced to disclose that their holdings of Greek debt, market at par plus, need to be haircut by over half. "Until then a restructuring could only take place on a voluntary basis," Schaeuble said.
Earlier on Wednesday, German weekly Die Zeit reported that EU experts have estimated that Greece must wipe away 40-50 percent of its debt load through a restructuring in order to return to a sustainable economic path
The newspaper, citing EU sources, said no decision had been taken on whether to pursue a restructuring of Greek debt, but various options were under consideration, including "less radical" solutions like a voluntary extension of maturities.
Which means a viable "fresh start" position will require at least a 100% haircut. And so what - by now each European bank should have been able to access the Fed's discount window and buy enough Netflix to make up for any possible losses associated with a complete wipe out of not only Greece but every single other insolvent European country. Which would be pretty much all of them.The newspaper, citing EU sources, said no decision had been taken on whether to pursue a restructuring of Greek debt, but various options were under consideration, including "less radical" solutions like a voluntary extension of maturities.
IL MARATONETA
Forumer storico
aggiornamento indagine statistica
32 forumisti hanno risposto, ad oggi, al sondaggio. Non siamo riusciti, per il momento, ad interecettare il parere di uno dei mitici, dio del buy, cannoniere nella penelope, sempre alla ricerca dell'isola del tesoro. Per rispetto, e per tutto quello che ha dato e per come ha operato nel forum, ritengo opportuno inserirlo nel gruppo dei ragionevolmente positivi, subito dopo il nostro capitano tommy.
n. 11 ragionevolmente positivi: tommy, frmaoro, giutrader, noloss, maratoneta, ficodindia, fabriziof, edesmo, discepolo, grandemago, lupolupo;
n. 13 moderatamente positivi: methos, ferdo, pyrinos, give, baro, andersen, lup, ivone, abulico, dierre, tobia, arwell, sparviero;
n. 4 gruppo di centro o degli equidistanti: grisù, frank, the last, giub;
n. 2 moderatamente negativi: gerard, fullofmoney;
n. 3 ragionevolmente negativi: gaudente, russiabond, cumulate;
ricordo a chi ci segue di far presente la propria opinione, anche se non possessore di titoli ggb.
Anche chi ha espresso il proprio parere, e dovesse aver cambiato parere, in seguito all'evolversi degli eventi, è pregato di farlo presente; infatti prese di posizione differenti, possono indicare il deteriorarsi o affermare la sicurezza di un investimento.
ps. dio del buy
, illuminaci....
32 forumisti hanno risposto, ad oggi, al sondaggio. Non siamo riusciti, per il momento, ad interecettare il parere di uno dei mitici, dio del buy, cannoniere nella penelope, sempre alla ricerca dell'isola del tesoro. Per rispetto, e per tutto quello che ha dato e per come ha operato nel forum, ritengo opportuno inserirlo nel gruppo dei ragionevolmente positivi, subito dopo il nostro capitano tommy.
n. 11 ragionevolmente positivi: tommy, frmaoro, giutrader, noloss, maratoneta, ficodindia, fabriziof, edesmo, discepolo, grandemago, lupolupo;
n. 13 moderatamente positivi: methos, ferdo, pyrinos, give, baro, andersen, lup, ivone, abulico, dierre, tobia, arwell, sparviero;
n. 4 gruppo di centro o degli equidistanti: grisù, frank, the last, giub;
n. 2 moderatamente negativi: gerard, fullofmoney;
n. 3 ragionevolmente negativi: gaudente, russiabond, cumulate;
ricordo a chi ci segue di far presente la propria opinione, anche se non possessore di titoli ggb.
Anche chi ha espresso il proprio parere, e dovesse aver cambiato parere, in seguito all'evolversi degli eventi, è pregato di farlo presente; infatti prese di posizione differenti, possono indicare il deteriorarsi o affermare la sicurezza di un investimento.
ps. dio del buy
, illuminaci....
giub
New Membro
Greece denies it is heading towards default on bailout debt
Almost a year after Greece received the biggest bailout in history, demands are growing for a debt restructuring
Helena Smith Athens guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 13 April 2011 20.11 BST
Greece has strongly denied it is heading for a sovereign default amid growing speculation that its debt load has become unsustainable, almost a year after it was granted the biggest bailout in history.
Rebuffing reports that the country's burgeoning €340bn (£3101) debt pile – predicted to reach 158% of GDP by 2012 – is at imminent risk of becoming unmanageable, the Greek finance minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou ruled out the prospect of a restructure, saying Athens was "on course" to putting its economy on track.
"We [the government] do not agree with the debt restructure idea. We can create new job positions and focus on investments instead. We will not be changing course," he said on Wednesday. "When you are in the depth of recession, you don't necessarily see the light. You think things will continue to be black forever."
Eleven months after agreeing €110bn in rescue loans from the EU and IMF, George Papandreou's socialist government insists the financial lifeline will be enough to get through the country's worst economic crisis since the second world war. A restructuring, say officials, would not only be bad for banks and pension funds holding Greek debt, and make it impossible for the country to return to capital markets, but would be catastrophic for the eurozone where it could have a contagious effect. Not since the 1950s has a western state been forced to restructure its debt.
But Greece's worsening recession and galloping unemployment rates – the result, mostly, of unprecedented fiscal measures implemented in return for the bailout – and the spectre of yet more austerity policies has ensured that Greeks are now willing to throw national pride to the winds in favour of a default.
With the vast majority complaining of little gain for the financial pain they have had to endure – the average family has seen its disposable income drop by up to 40% as a result of rises in tax and pay and pension cuts – most now support the idea of a debt restructure.
MPs in Papandreou's restive Pasok party have grown increasingly vocal about the need for a restructure. "It's better to have a restructuring now, not necessarily haircuts but perhaps a repayment extension since the situation is going nowhere," said the veteran socialist MP Vasso Papandreou who heads parliament's economic affairs committee. "We keep taking measures as if we are in a vicious cycle."
Before yet more spending cuts his government is expected to announce on Friday, Papandreou is gathering his parliamentary group in an emergency session with an appeal to stay the course. The measures, which could include taxing fizzy drinks to help redress fiscal shortfalls, face a tumultuous vote in Athens' 300-seat parliament next month.
The ratings agency Standard and Poor's rejected the notion that long-overdue structural reforms would lead to growth, predicting that Greece had a "one-third chance" of restructuring its debt.
Almost a year after Greece received the biggest bailout in history, demands are growing for a debt restructuring
Helena Smith Athens guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 13 April 2011 20.11 BST
Greece has strongly denied it is heading for a sovereign default amid growing speculation that its debt load has become unsustainable, almost a year after it was granted the biggest bailout in history.
Rebuffing reports that the country's burgeoning €340bn (£3101) debt pile – predicted to reach 158% of GDP by 2012 – is at imminent risk of becoming unmanageable, the Greek finance minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou ruled out the prospect of a restructure, saying Athens was "on course" to putting its economy on track.
"We [the government] do not agree with the debt restructure idea. We can create new job positions and focus on investments instead. We will not be changing course," he said on Wednesday. "When you are in the depth of recession, you don't necessarily see the light. You think things will continue to be black forever."
Eleven months after agreeing €110bn in rescue loans from the EU and IMF, George Papandreou's socialist government insists the financial lifeline will be enough to get through the country's worst economic crisis since the second world war. A restructuring, say officials, would not only be bad for banks and pension funds holding Greek debt, and make it impossible for the country to return to capital markets, but would be catastrophic for the eurozone where it could have a contagious effect. Not since the 1950s has a western state been forced to restructure its debt.
But Greece's worsening recession and galloping unemployment rates – the result, mostly, of unprecedented fiscal measures implemented in return for the bailout – and the spectre of yet more austerity policies has ensured that Greeks are now willing to throw national pride to the winds in favour of a default.
With the vast majority complaining of little gain for the financial pain they have had to endure – the average family has seen its disposable income drop by up to 40% as a result of rises in tax and pay and pension cuts – most now support the idea of a debt restructure.
MPs in Papandreou's restive Pasok party have grown increasingly vocal about the need for a restructure. "It's better to have a restructuring now, not necessarily haircuts but perhaps a repayment extension since the situation is going nowhere," said the veteran socialist MP Vasso Papandreou who heads parliament's economic affairs committee. "We keep taking measures as if we are in a vicious cycle."
Before yet more spending cuts his government is expected to announce on Friday, Papandreou is gathering his parliamentary group in an emergency session with an appeal to stay the course. The measures, which could include taxing fizzy drinks to help redress fiscal shortfalls, face a tumultuous vote in Athens' 300-seat parliament next month.
The ratings agency Standard and Poor's rejected the notion that long-overdue structural reforms would lead to growth, predicting that Greece had a "one-third chance" of restructuring its debt.
IL MARATONETA
Forumer storico
grazie rottweiler; il tuo parere, da quasi esterno, è estremamente interessante, in quanto espresso senza interessi in gioco; penso che la tua decisione, di uscire, sia stata frutto di un ragionamento sensato, in base alla cifra investita e considerando il prezzo di carico; seguici ancora, perchè con le tue caratteristiche, potresti trovare in seguito, nuove opportunità. Per quello che hai espresso, per il momento, potresti inserirti nel gruppo dei ragionevolmente pessimisti.
general gain
Nuovo forumer
Sto accumulando sulla Grecia...scadenze fino al 2025..
A questi prezzi il rischio di grosse perdite in conto capitale è ridotto...
e punto soprattutto sul fatto che le riforme fatte con l'acqua alla gola siano "vere" riforme che nel medio periodo potranno dare buoni risultati...e se l'economia greca riprende a crescere il debito non sarà un problema gestirlo...
A questi prezzi il rischio di grosse perdite in conto capitale è ridotto...
e punto soprattutto sul fatto che le riforme fatte con l'acqua alla gola siano "vere" riforme che nel medio periodo potranno dare buoni risultati...e se l'economia greca riprende a crescere il debito non sarà un problema gestirlo...
IL MARATONETA
Forumer storico
Un saluto sincero, noloss, non vorrei ripetermi ma stamani ho evidenziato degli elementi che in questo momento non ci stanno aiutando, il rinvio del piano strutturale 2012-2015, la litigiosità dentro al governo, il rinvio del piano privatizzazioni, lo sforamento del deficit di bilancio 2010 che ancora non è stato comunicato ufficialmente. Per il momento prendiamo atto, che in seguito agli ultimi eventi, dal gruppo degli irriducibili, ragionevolmente ottimisti, ti sposti nel gruppo dei moderatamente ottimisti.Siamo sicuri? A voler fare ampio uso di dietrologia... di gente che rema contro ne abbiamo a bizzeffe. In tale schiera annovero anche tutto il chiacchiericcio mediatico dei vari blogger sulla ristrutturazione "certa e necessaria" con haircut tra il 50% e 70%.
Ma anche noi dobbiamo dirci la verità: se non saltano fuori dei numeri positivi non vi sarà un dubbio sulla volonta ma solo una sicura ineluttabile apocalisse... a meno che arrivino i nostri della UE a salvarci...
Possiamo solo ribadire il concetto, finché non succede possiamo sperare. Io rimango positivo (moderatamente) ma solo con la convinzione che, per adesso, non vi siano tutte le condizioni favorevoli per la messa in atto della tragedia.
Intanto il mercato vende. Non c'è panico. Ve ne siete accorti, spero. Ma vende! Non hanno intenzione di vendere a prezzi stracciati finché la gente pensa di acquistare oro da rivendere a 100- poi quando il denaro cala, beh la lettera può scendere di livello a cercare i nuovi giocatori. Sì giocatori, perché oramai la Grecia è solo una scommessa, niente di più...
E pensare che io ero un semplice risparmiatore...
- Stato