Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (7 lettori)

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frmaoro

il Fankazzista
Roma - Molto probabilmente chi ha tirato un sospiro di sollievo la scorsa settimana, scommettendo sullo smorzarsi delle preoccupazioni sul problema Piigs, lo ha fatto in modo alquanto prematuro. Torna alta infatti nella giornata di oggi la tensione sui mercati dei titoli di stato europei, con i rendimenti sui bond portoghesi e greci che toccano nuovi livelli record.

Secondo quanto riporta Bloomberg, i rendimenti dei titoli portoghesi a cinque anni sono balzati al 10,46%, mentre i rendimenti dei bond greci a dieci anni sono saliti sopra la soglia del 13% per la prima volta da almeno il 1998, esattamente al massimo del 13,41%.

I rendimenti dei bond greci a due anni sono balzati poi di 92 punti, portando il rialzo totale di questa settimana a 157 punti base; tensione anche nel resto dei paesi periferici, con i rendimenti dei titoli decennali spagnoli cresciuti di 9 punti base, e quelli irlandesi di 13 punti base.

Come se non bastasse, i credit default swap sulla Grecia hanno indicato una probabilità del 60% di un default del paese entro i prossimi cinque anni e hanno toccato il record di sempre a 1.105 punti base, secondo i dati raccolti da Markit. In più Mortz Kraemer, responsabile del team di valutazione dei debiti europei presso S&P ha affermato che i detentori di bond potrebbero assistere a una svalutazione compresa tra il 50% e il 70% sul valore dei propri bond, se la nazione decidesse di ristrutturare i propri debiti.

E il punto è che proprio nella giornata di oggi pesano come un macigno le parole proferite da Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, membro del comitato esecutivo della Bce, che ha affermato che qualsiasi ristrutturazione del debito pubblico di Atene "comporterebbe il fallimento di gran parte del sistema bancario greco".

Pesano in quanto analisti come Greg Venizelos, strategist del credito presso BNP Paribas, a Londra, dichiara a una intervista a Bloomberg, che "la Grecia potrebbe non avere altra alternativa alla ristrutturazione del debito, al fine di tornare su un percorso di debito sostenibile"; e questa necessità del paese, precisa l'analista, "è probabilmente il segreto peggiore che ci è stato nascosto".

Il mercato dei titoli di stato torna così a tremare. Oggi, i rendimenti extra che gli investitori richiedono per detenere un bond portoghese a 10 anni invece che un bund tedesco è balzato a 549 punti base, al record dai tempi dell'introduz
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Germany has not changed stance on Greek debt-official






BERLIN, April 14 | Thu Apr 14, 2011 9:51am EDT



BERLIN, April 14 (Reuters) - Comments made in a newspaper by Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble do not signal Germany's position towards a possible restructuring of Greek debt has changed, a high-ranking government official said on Thursday.
"The minister only described Germany's unchanged position," the official told Reuters, declining to be named.
In an interview with Die Welt newspaper released on Wednesday, Schaeuble said "additional steps" would have to be taken to deal with Greece's huge debt burden if an analysis from the European Central Bank and European Commission in June showed it is unsustainable.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Greek, Portuguese Yields Surge to Record as Schaeuble Raises Restructuring

By Lucy Meakin - Apr 14, 2011 3:40 PM GMT+0200 Thu Apr 14 13:40:39 GMT 2011

April 14 (Bloomberg) --




Greek and Portuguese bonds led a slump in the securities of Europe’s most indebted nations amid mounting investor concern that they may be forced to restructure their debts.
The declines pushed the yields on Greek and Portuguese 10- year bonds to euro-era records after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that Greece may need to renegotiate its debt burden if an audit in June questions its ability to pay creditors. Standard & Poor’s head of European sovereign ratings, Moritz Kraemer, said the risk of such an event has risen. Greek two-year yields climbed the most since January 27.
“Schaeuble’s comments bring the prospect of restructuring back onto the table,” said Peter Chatwell, a fixed-income strategist at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank in London. “It gives the market plenty of time to fret. If we have to wait until June, there’s the prospect of event risk in the future, which leaves the market open to speculation and spread widening.”
The yield on 10-year Greek debt jumped 34 basis points to 13.26 percent as of 2:39 p.m. in London, the highest since 1998 when Bloomberg began collecting the data. The two-year note yield surged as much as 103 basis points to 17.96 percent.
Portuguese 10-year yields added 15 basis points to 8.89 percent, the most since at least 1997, while two-year note yields were 28 basis points higher at 9.33 percent.
Schaeuble told Germany’s Die Welt newspaper that Greece may have to restructure because creditors can’t be forced to take losses until Europe’s permanent rescue system for the euro starts up in mid-2013.
Speaking on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move” S&P’s Kraemer said “I’m not saying restructuring is inevitable, but the risk is more likely. The base case is still that they would not restructure.”



Credit Default Swaps

Such an event could involve imposing losses of between 50 percent and 70 percent on investors, he said.
The cost of insuring Greek government debt rose 42 basis points to a record 1,102, according to CMA prices for credit- default swaps, signaling there’s a 60 percent chance the country will default within five years.
“That Greece may have no other alternative but to restructure in order to get itself back on the sustainable debt path is probably the worst kept secret,” said Greg Venizelos, a credit strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London.
Yields on 10-year Spanish debt jumped nine basis points to 5.32 percent, while the yield on Irish securities of a similar maturity rose 17 basis points to 9.25 percent.



Worst Performing Debt

Benchmark Italian debt also slipped after it sold 6.9 billion euros of bonds maturing in 2016 and 2023, pushing the 10-year yield up three basis points to 4.72 percent.
Portuguese debt is the worst performer this year among the euro-region nations, according to indexes compiled by the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies and Bloomberg. It has handed investors a 10.6 percent loss, while Greek bonds have lost 1.5 percent and German government bonds are 2.7 percent lower. Spanish debt has returned 2.8 percent and Irish securities 0.4 percent.
German bonds gained as investors sought the relative safety of debt issued by Europe’s largest economy, and the nation’s government announces new economic forecasts. The German economy will growth 2.6 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2012, Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle said.
Unemployment will decline below 3 million on average this year, while inflation will average 2.4 percent, falling to 1.9 percent in 2012, the government said in its report released in Berlin today.
The European Central Bank said in its monthly policy statement today that it will monitor upside inflation risks “very closely” after raising interest rates last week for the first time in almost three years.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond slipped four basis points to 3.39 percent, after reaching 3.38 percent, the lowest since April 5. The two-year note yield was three basis points lower at 1.83 percent.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Citi: Greece In Vicious Spiral



Citi said on Thursday that the Greek debt restructuring debate is revived by the lack of significant progress on the fiscal adjustment and structural adjustment program in the country.

It states that further fiscal consolidation plans are very unlikely to restore market confidence in Greece but they also are unlikely to make a significant difference to the fiscal consolidation path.

“The severe economic recession and the lack of improvement in tax revenues suggest Greece may already be in the vicious spiral of too tight fiscal policy and too weak economic performance, where a write-off of part of the debt would be the only possible way out”, said Citi in a report.


(capital.gr)
 
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