ferdo
Utente Senior
sì ma nel mentre privatizzano, spremono con le tasse, insomma le riforme avranno qualche effetto ... se no meglio fare haircut del 100%
Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (6 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
sì ma nel mentre privatizzano, spremono con le tasse, insomma le riforme avranno qualche effetto ... se no meglio fare haircut del 100%
AAAA47
Forumer storico
perche' la 26 quando per esempio la 19 o la 18 costano quasi uguale, anzi la 19 ha anche cedola piu' alta..
tommy271
Forumer storico
Concordo con te che il solo mancato pagamento di una cedola equivale al default.
Ora facciamo accademia a tempo perso, poi magari come dice la UE non si farà nulla.
I percorsi possono essere due.
Il primo, operazione di concambio.
Noi cediamo i nostri GGB all'EFSF, questo in cambio ci rende propri titoli con scadenza (ad esempio 2025), al nominale 100 e cedola al 2%.
I titoli rastrellati al prezzo di mercato verranno poi girati alla Grecia con una linea di finanziamento e portati a scadenza dagli stessi ellenici con vantaggio sul debito.
Secondo, gli ellenici si limitano ad allungare i termini di scadenza senza intaccare il rendimento cedolare o tagliando le cedole.
Vantaggi pochi ma prendono fiato ed evitano di "rollare" il debito.
Serve però una ripresa del PIL ed un ritorno all'avanzo primario per la gestione della cassa.
giutrader
Forumer attivo
Ora mi trovi in perfetta sintonia. il floor è al 50%, è quello che ci stà comunicando il mercato ora (vedere le 37/40)
Comandante Gerard
Forumer storico
Ristrutturazione soft?
con tutto il rispetto mi viene da ridere...il mercato non comprende queste sottigliezze, non si fa offuscare dalla terminologia da parruccone...se sarà ristrutturazione gliene fregherà ben poco del taglio del 10% o del 20% o dell'allungamento delle scadenze.
Con un pezzo di europa incapace di onorare i propri debiti le conseguenze non saranno certo "soft"
In effetti la ristrutturazione "soft" non esiste.
O ristrutturi, e quindi è default conclamato, o no.
Per la Grecia un taglietto del 10 e/o un allungamento scadenze mi pare più un allungamento dell'agonia che altro.
Sarà comunque un default dell'Europa dell'euro.
Quel che poi potrà accadere agli altri, irlanda, portogallo ecc.ecc. temo sia già scritto in questo caso.
Se l' Europa, o meglio la Germania, non vuole salvare la Grecia, tanto vale, per la Grecia, ristrutturare sul serio con un taglio del 70%.
tommy271
Forumer storico
EURO GOVT-Bunds slide as outperformance vs U.S. debt unwinds
Tue Apr 19, 2011 4:49am EDT
* Investors book profits as Bunds resume underperformance
* German/U.S. spread narrows, U.S. ratings move shrugged off
* Greek T-bill sale in focus as euro zone debt crisis flares
By William James
LONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - Bund futures slid on Tuesday with traders citing profit-taking on large gains made versus U.S. debt the previous day and expecting German bonds to resume their longer-term underperformance versus Treasuries.
Debt issued by the euro zone's lower-rated issuers was steady in thin early trading with much of the focus on how high yields would rise at a sale of short-dated Greek bills after growing talk of restructuring the country's debt.
Bund futures FGBLc1 were last 36 ticks lower at 122.09, after rising by more than a full point on Monday in the wake of a U.S. credit rating outlook downgrade as investors moved out of Treasuries and into German paper.
"The market seems to want to take some profit after Europe massively outperformed the U.S. yesterday," a trader said.
The contract met technical resistance at 122.60, the 100-day moving average, prompting a sell-off to below the 122.37 level broken on Monday which marks the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of the March to April fall.
Stronger-than-forecast Purchasing Managers' Index data from the euro zone also added to pressure on safe-haven German debt.
A resilient overnight performance in U.S. Treasuries showed investors had largely shrugged off the move from rating agency Standard and Poor's, prompting some analysts to suggest the yield gap between Treasuries and Bunds could narrow further.
The 10-year Bund last yielded around 10 basis points less than its U.S. equivalent US10YT=RR. The spread had widened sharply on Monday session but was seen gradually resuming its longer-term narrowing trend as the European Central Bank tightens monetary policy well ahead of the Federal Reserve.
GREEK TEST
Greece will later face the difficult task of selling T-bills with markets still pricing in a high probability the country will need to restructure its public debt.
"Given the extremely nervous market talk about Greek restructuring, we hesitate to call how such supply will be accepted by the market. At the very least, they will have to pay up relative to the comparatively successful auctions carried out so far this year," said Credit Agricole's head of European interest rate strategy Luca Jellinek.
Bond yields have risen across the euro zone's peripheral states as the talk of a Greek restructuring, notably from German policymakers, has reignited worries over the bloc's debt crisis.
Nevertheless, the auction was expected to be covered, with the high yields appealing to some risk-hungry investors.
"Given where front-end yields are trading... there is fantastic value in this paper for players that can ignore the louder and louder calls for a restructuring of Greek debt," ING rates strategist Padhraic Garvey said in a note.
Greek yields rose further in early trading, though the moves were less extreme than in recent sessions. Ten-year yields GR10YT=TWEB were last up by 8 bps at 14.731 percent, with the bonds trading at 58.718 percent of face value.
Ten-year Spanish bond yields ES10YT=TWEB have risen to around 5.55 percent since late last week, just 20 basis points shy of the euro lifetime high, generating concern that the country was being dragged back into the crosshairs of investors looking for the next bailout candidate.
Spain will issue 10- and 13-year paper on Wednesday in what is increasingly being seen as a big test of whether it can avoid the escalating funding costs that have so far pushed Greece, Ireland and Portugal into requesting financial aid.
Tue Apr 19, 2011 4:49am EDT
* Investors book profits as Bunds resume underperformance
* German/U.S. spread narrows, U.S. ratings move shrugged off
* Greek T-bill sale in focus as euro zone debt crisis flares
By William James
LONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - Bund futures slid on Tuesday with traders citing profit-taking on large gains made versus U.S. debt the previous day and expecting German bonds to resume their longer-term underperformance versus Treasuries.
Debt issued by the euro zone's lower-rated issuers was steady in thin early trading with much of the focus on how high yields would rise at a sale of short-dated Greek bills after growing talk of restructuring the country's debt.
Bund futures FGBLc1 were last 36 ticks lower at 122.09, after rising by more than a full point on Monday in the wake of a U.S. credit rating outlook downgrade as investors moved out of Treasuries and into German paper.
"The market seems to want to take some profit after Europe massively outperformed the U.S. yesterday," a trader said.
The contract met technical resistance at 122.60, the 100-day moving average, prompting a sell-off to below the 122.37 level broken on Monday which marks the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of the March to April fall.
Stronger-than-forecast Purchasing Managers' Index data from the euro zone also added to pressure on safe-haven German debt.
A resilient overnight performance in U.S. Treasuries showed investors had largely shrugged off the move from rating agency Standard and Poor's, prompting some analysts to suggest the yield gap between Treasuries and Bunds could narrow further.
The 10-year Bund last yielded around 10 basis points less than its U.S. equivalent US10YT=RR. The spread had widened sharply on Monday session but was seen gradually resuming its longer-term narrowing trend as the European Central Bank tightens monetary policy well ahead of the Federal Reserve.
GREEK TEST
Greece will later face the difficult task of selling T-bills with markets still pricing in a high probability the country will need to restructure its public debt.
"Given the extremely nervous market talk about Greek restructuring, we hesitate to call how such supply will be accepted by the market. At the very least, they will have to pay up relative to the comparatively successful auctions carried out so far this year," said Credit Agricole's head of European interest rate strategy Luca Jellinek.
Bond yields have risen across the euro zone's peripheral states as the talk of a Greek restructuring, notably from German policymakers, has reignited worries over the bloc's debt crisis.
Nevertheless, the auction was expected to be covered, with the high yields appealing to some risk-hungry investors.
"Given where front-end yields are trading... there is fantastic value in this paper for players that can ignore the louder and louder calls for a restructuring of Greek debt," ING rates strategist Padhraic Garvey said in a note.
Greek yields rose further in early trading, though the moves were less extreme than in recent sessions. Ten-year yields GR10YT=TWEB were last up by 8 bps at 14.731 percent, with the bonds trading at 58.718 percent of face value.
Ten-year Spanish bond yields ES10YT=TWEB have risen to around 5.55 percent since late last week, just 20 basis points shy of the euro lifetime high, generating concern that the country was being dragged back into the crosshairs of investors looking for the next bailout candidate.
Spain will issue 10- and 13-year paper on Wednesday in what is increasingly being seen as a big test of whether it can avoid the escalating funding costs that have so far pushed Greece, Ireland and Portugal into requesting financial aid.
Tobia
Forumer storico
sì ma nel mentre privatizzano, spremono con le tasse, insomma le riforme avranno qualche effetto ... se no meglio fare haircut del 100%
macchè, il vero problema, sarò semplicistico, è solo quello di produrre debito a costi accettabili, cosa che a mio avviso in caso di qualsivoglia ristrutturazione sarà impossibile: è la benzina per far muovere il paese che costa troppo, del motore frega niente a nessuno, c'è chi ha quello della WW, chi quello della prinz, è nella natura delle cose
IL MARATONETA
Forumer storico
la prima ipotesi potrebbe essere anche proposta su base volontaria: sarebbero molti ad aderire: anche se la cedola venisse ridotta al 2% e la scadenza allungata di alcuni anni, recupererebbero un nominale di 100.
- Stato