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Analysis: Greek debt shadow looms over European banks
(Reuters) - A Greek debt restructuring might only cost a handful of French and German banks a few hundred millions euros each, but could undermine this summer's health check of European lenders.
BNP Paribas, Dexia, Societe Generale and Commerzbank are among the biggest holders of Greek bonds, each with 3 billion euros ($4.3 billion) or more.
Pressure is growing on Athens to deal with its mountain of debt and financial markets are betting some form of restructuring is on the cards. A German government adviser said it was unavoidable.
"It might cause pain to individual banks but the system can withstand what could potentially happen in Greece," said Ajay Rawal, senior director for financial industry advisory services at restructuring advisor Alvarez & Marsal.
"What will be more difficult is the uncertainty it would bring ... where does it lead to and where's next? Everyone's very wary of what precedents it might set."
Greece's debt load of 325 billion euros is nearly double the level regarded as sustainable and about half needs to be written off, economists estimate. That could see "haircuts" on the value of holdings of between 20 and 50 percent, analysts reckon.
What will happen is far from clear, however. Many EU officials maintain a restructuring is not on the agenda, especially before 2013, ruling out the threat of sharp haircuts in the short term.
A voluntary rollover of outstanding debt, extending repayment maturities or a mild restructuring are possible and would be less painful.
INCREASED DEFAULTS
"Extensions are potentially the least damaging for the banks," said Nick Firoozye, head of EMEA rates strategy at Nomura. "They don't lower the debt ratio, they're not necessarily that great for Greece but as a first stage they help to smooth the debt profile."
But they could be costly, forcing banks to mark-to-market all their Greek bond positions. Trading book assets have already been marked down and loan provisions have typically been bumped up, but banking book assets are not adjusted for market swings.
About two-thirds of Greek government debt is held overseas, with a big slug in the hands of European banks.
Banks also hold private sector bonds and loans to private firms and the fear is a restructuring will drive defaults up.
French banks are most exposed, even after reducing their holdings in the last year. They had 19.8 billion euros of government bonds and 42.1 billion euros of loans to the private sector, excluding other banks, at the end of September, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
A one-third haircut could cost BNP Paribas 1.6 billion euros on its 5 billion euro of Greek government bonds, and cost SocGen and Franco-Belgian Dexia about 1 billion euros each on their sovereign holdings. A 50 percent write-down would wipe off 12 percent of BNP's expected earnings this year, and 22 percent at SocGen, analysts at RBS estimated.
Analysis: Greek debt shadow looms over European banks | Reuters
Analysis: Greek debt shadow looms over European banks
(Reuters) - A Greek debt restructuring might only cost a handful of French and German banks a few hundred millions euros each, but could undermine this summer's health check of European lenders.
BNP Paribas, Dexia, Societe Generale and Commerzbank are among the biggest holders of Greek bonds, each with 3 billion euros ($4.3 billion) or more.
Pressure is growing on Athens to deal with its mountain of debt and financial markets are betting some form of restructuring is on the cards. A German government adviser said it was unavoidable.
"It might cause pain to individual banks but the system can withstand what could potentially happen in Greece," said Ajay Rawal, senior director for financial industry advisory services at restructuring advisor Alvarez & Marsal.
"What will be more difficult is the uncertainty it would bring ... where does it lead to and where's next? Everyone's very wary of what precedents it might set."
Greece's debt load of 325 billion euros is nearly double the level regarded as sustainable and about half needs to be written off, economists estimate. That could see "haircuts" on the value of holdings of between 20 and 50 percent, analysts reckon.
What will happen is far from clear, however. Many EU officials maintain a restructuring is not on the agenda, especially before 2013, ruling out the threat of sharp haircuts in the short term.
A voluntary rollover of outstanding debt, extending repayment maturities or a mild restructuring are possible and would be less painful.
INCREASED DEFAULTS
"Extensions are potentially the least damaging for the banks," said Nick Firoozye, head of EMEA rates strategy at Nomura. "They don't lower the debt ratio, they're not necessarily that great for Greece but as a first stage they help to smooth the debt profile."
But they could be costly, forcing banks to mark-to-market all their Greek bond positions. Trading book assets have already been marked down and loan provisions have typically been bumped up, but banking book assets are not adjusted for market swings.
About two-thirds of Greek government debt is held overseas, with a big slug in the hands of European banks.
Banks also hold private sector bonds and loans to private firms and the fear is a restructuring will drive defaults up.
French banks are most exposed, even after reducing their holdings in the last year. They had 19.8 billion euros of government bonds and 42.1 billion euros of loans to the private sector, excluding other banks, at the end of September, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
A one-third haircut could cost BNP Paribas 1.6 billion euros on its 5 billion euro of Greek government bonds, and cost SocGen and Franco-Belgian Dexia about 1 billion euros each on their sovereign holdings. A 50 percent write-down would wipe off 12 percent of BNP's expected earnings this year, and 22 percent at SocGen, analysts at RBS estimated.
Analysis: Greek debt shadow looms over European banks | Reuters
una serena e soprattutto spensierata Pasqua.
.
divertimento per questi giorni di vacanza
eek
)
Mi piacerebbe che l'iniziale gruppo dei cinque coraggiosi (frmaoro, g.ln, ferdo, discipline e dierre) si ricomponesse nel gruppo dei ragionevolmente positivi!
