giub
New Membro
è l'onda auspicabile...ma come dice anche lui, i tedeschi non sono su quell'onda...
PS:Carlo Pelanda Professore di Politica ed Economia internazionale nell'Università della Georgia, Athens, Usa
Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (3 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
è l'onda auspicabile...ma come dice anche lui, i tedeschi non sono su quell'onda...
PS:Carlo Pelanda Professore di Politica ed Economia internazionale nell'Università della Georgia, Athens, Usa
tommy271
Forumer storico
Droutsas at EU-Gulf Cooperation Council meeting
Any reform, in order to be viable, must come from the Arab countries themselves, whereas the EU will provide every possible support in that direction, on the basis of mutual respect, Greek foreign minister Dimitris Droutsas said on Wednesday, addressing the 21st EU-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) ministerial meeting taking place in Abu Dhabi (UAE), co-chaired by EU High Representative Catherine Ashton and UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
Items on the Ministerial’s agenda include EU-GCC relations and matters of common interest pertaining to the wider region.
"The EU cannot, and does not want to dictate any model of reforms," Droutsas stressed.
Speaking on behalf of the EU, in light of the recent regional developments, Droutsas stressed the shared view by the two organisations concerning the major challenges such as preserving regional security and stability, combating terrorism, and the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
(ana.gr)
***
Politica estera.
Any reform, in order to be viable, must come from the Arab countries themselves, whereas the EU will provide every possible support in that direction, on the basis of mutual respect, Greek foreign minister Dimitris Droutsas said on Wednesday, addressing the 21st EU-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) ministerial meeting taking place in Abu Dhabi (UAE), co-chaired by EU High Representative Catherine Ashton and UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
Items on the Ministerial’s agenda include EU-GCC relations and matters of common interest pertaining to the wider region.
"The EU cannot, and does not want to dictate any model of reforms," Droutsas stressed.
Speaking on behalf of the EU, in light of the recent regional developments, Droutsas stressed the shared view by the two organisations concerning the major challenges such as preserving regional security and stability, combating terrorism, and the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
(ana.gr)
***
Politica estera.
giub
New Membro
Condivido l'interesse per l'individuazione di un numero indice rappresentativo del costo/rischio.
Si potrebbe utilizzare il VAN che scaturirebbe dalle diverse ipotesi. Infatti una ristrutturazione che non tocchi il nominale ma allunghi e contemporaneamente dando cedole bassissime comporterebbe "danni" superiori ad un haircut del 30%. Si pensi al 2045 0,1% dato in cambio del 2040 4,1%
tommy271
Forumer storico
Deputy PM denies Turkish faux pas
Pangalos to sue over reports accusing him of denigrating Greeks on visit to Turkey
Deputy Prime Minister Theodoros Pangalos called on Wednesday for New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras to fire his party’s spokesman Yiannis Michelakis as a war of words over comments the government official is alleged to have made in Turkey escalated.
Pangalos also said he would sue the Eleftheros Typos newspaper over its report, which labeled him a “liar” and accused him of denigrating Greeks during a recent visit to Turkey.
The newspaper published a transcript of the conversation that Pangalos had following a visit to Ecumenical Patriarch Vartholomaios.
A journalist from Turkey’s Hurriyet newspaper was among the group and he recorded what the deputy prime minister said. A link to the recording was placed on Eleftheros Typos’s website.
The controversy over Pangalos’s comments arose after reports that he said Greeks were paying the price for being lazy while the Turks worked hard and their economy benefited.
New Democracy labeled Pangalos, known for being outspoken, as “out of control.”
However, Pangalos denies agreeing to any interview with a journalist from Hurriyet, suggesting he intended his comments to be off the record.
In fact, in the recording the deputy prime minister can be heard saying that “there are lot of decent and hardworking people” in Greece. He did, however, admit that there were problems with the public sector. “We have been trying to avoid breaking into it and its practices for years,” he said. “It was a comfortable way to live but also a lazy way to live and now we have to face it.”
Sources said that Prime Minister George Papandreou has privately backed Pangalos but has expressed concern about the ongoing public battle he is having with Michelakis, who used to work at Eleftheros Typos.
ekathimerini.com , Wednesday April 20, 2011 (22:58)
***
Diatribe.
Pangalos to sue over reports accusing him of denigrating Greeks on visit to Turkey
Pangalos also said he would sue the Eleftheros Typos newspaper over its report, which labeled him a “liar” and accused him of denigrating Greeks during a recent visit to Turkey.
The newspaper published a transcript of the conversation that Pangalos had following a visit to Ecumenical Patriarch Vartholomaios.
A journalist from Turkey’s Hurriyet newspaper was among the group and he recorded what the deputy prime minister said. A link to the recording was placed on Eleftheros Typos’s website.
The controversy over Pangalos’s comments arose after reports that he said Greeks were paying the price for being lazy while the Turks worked hard and their economy benefited.
New Democracy labeled Pangalos, known for being outspoken, as “out of control.”
However, Pangalos denies agreeing to any interview with a journalist from Hurriyet, suggesting he intended his comments to be off the record.
In fact, in the recording the deputy prime minister can be heard saying that “there are lot of decent and hardworking people” in Greece. He did, however, admit that there were problems with the public sector. “We have been trying to avoid breaking into it and its practices for years,” he said. “It was a comfortable way to live but also a lazy way to live and now we have to face it.”
Sources said that Prime Minister George Papandreou has privately backed Pangalos but has expressed concern about the ongoing public battle he is having with Michelakis, who used to work at Eleftheros Typos.
ekathimerini.com , Wednesday April 20, 2011 (22:58)
***
Diatribe.
Baro
Umile contadino
Ammettiamo che allunghino le scadenze e taglino le cedole, il valore dei titoli rimarrebbe a questi livelli o si apprezzerebbe ? Chi comprerebbe un trentennale con una cedola che non copre nemmeno l'inflazione?
giub
New Membro
Questa, sotto diverse sfumature, è anche la mia posizione e quella di Tommy.
La soluzione distressed sembra al momento quella più convincente.
Il problema è a questo punto quantificarla.
Perchè tra un 19 6.5% e un 2024 0,5% c'è una enorme differenza (ipotizzando allungamento di 5 anni e taglio cedola ma mantenimento del nominale)
tommy271
Forumer storico
Forse "volo troppo in alto", ma teniamo conto del fatto che ogni tentativo di ridurre il debito comporta un maggior livello di sostenibilità del debito.
Quindi un apprezzamento, in linea teorica, dei TdS.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Bond euro aprono in calo su atteso rialzo Borse, focus su Grecia
giovedì 21 aprile 2011 08:49
LONDRA, 21 aprile (Reuters) - Apertura in calo per i futures
Bund in vista di una seduta di segno positivo - la terza
consecutiva - per le borse europee, sostenute come Wall Street
dai forti dati trimestrali delle aziende americane.
Ma le speculazioni su una ristrutturazione del debito greco
- che hanno spinto a nuovi record il rendimento sui governativi
di Atene, Lisbona e Dublino - contribuiscono a limitare la
flessione dei Bund, in una seduta che sarà comunque
caratterizzata da volumi sottili, in vista del lungo weekend
pasquale.
"Finchè a prevalere è l'incertezza i Bund manterranno un
sostengo di base, nonostante un effetto di segno contrario più
ampio derivante dal rally delle borse" commenta lo strategist di
Commerzbank Cristopher Rieger.
Sul primario, oggi focus sulle aste francesi, con 8,5
miliardi sulle scadenze 2013, 2015 e 2016, più altri 2 miliardi
di indicizzati al 2019, 2022 e 2040.
"Sono bond prezzati in maniera ragionevole sulla curva
domestica, in particvolare il 5 anni, dovrebbero quindi trovare
una buona domanda, l'unico rischio è che l'interesse sia un po'
distratto dall'arrivo della festività" commenta Orlando Green di
Credit Agricole.
giovedì 21 aprile 2011 08:49
LONDRA, 21 aprile (Reuters) - Apertura in calo per i futures
Bund in vista di una seduta di segno positivo - la terza
consecutiva - per le borse europee, sostenute come Wall Street
dai forti dati trimestrali delle aziende americane.
Ma le speculazioni su una ristrutturazione del debito greco
- che hanno spinto a nuovi record il rendimento sui governativi
di Atene, Lisbona e Dublino - contribuiscono a limitare la
flessione dei Bund, in una seduta che sarà comunque
caratterizzata da volumi sottili, in vista del lungo weekend
pasquale.
"Finchè a prevalere è l'incertezza i Bund manterranno un
sostengo di base, nonostante un effetto di segno contrario più
ampio derivante dal rally delle borse" commenta lo strategist di
Commerzbank Cristopher Rieger.
Sul primario, oggi focus sulle aste francesi, con 8,5
miliardi sulle scadenze 2013, 2015 e 2016, più altri 2 miliardi
di indicizzati al 2019, 2022 e 2040.
"Sono bond prezzati in maniera ragionevole sulla curva
domestica, in particvolare il 5 anni, dovrebbero quindi trovare
una buona domanda, l'unico rischio è che l'interesse sia un po'
distratto dall'arrivo della festività" commenta Orlando Green di
Credit Agricole.
giub
New Membro
Il discorso infatti è tutto qui. Certamente avresti un apprezzamento derivante dal cambio di rating (da un junk ad un AAA), dall'altro una forte perdita in quanto, come giustamente dici, avere un trentennale al 0,1% e come avere uno zc...
E tanto per fare un esempio...un BEI 2026 (quindi AAA) quota 49, il EBRD 48 quota 14,3....
Ultima modifica:
tommy271
Forumer storico
Greek debt restructuring might only cost a handful of French,German banks a few hundred millions euros each
http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php...hl=it&q=greece&as_qdr=h&as_drrb=q&cf=all&tt=0 http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php...hl=it&q=greece&as_qdr=h&as_drrb=q&cf=all&tt=0 http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php...hl=it&q=greece&as_qdr=h&as_drrb=q&cf=all&tt=0
Steve Slater and Lionel Laurent LONDON/PARIS - 21.04.2011
A Greek debt restructuring might only cost a handful of French and German banks a few hundred millions euros each, but could undermine this summer's health check of European lenders.
BNP Paribas, Dexia, Societe Generale and Commerzbank are among the biggest holders of Greek bonds, each with 3 billion euros ($4.3 billion) or more.
Pressure is growing on Athens to deal with its mountain of debt and financial markets are betting some form of restructuring is on the cards. A German government adviser said it was unavoidable.
"It might cause pain to individual banks but the system can withstand what could potentially happen in Greece," said Ajay Rawal, senior director for financial industry advisory services at restructuring advisor Alvarez & Marsal.
"What will be more difficult is the uncertainty it would bring ... where does it lead to and where's next? Everyone's very wary of what precedents it might set."
Greece's debt load of 325 billion euros is nearly double the level regarded as sustainable and about half needs to be written off, economists estimate. That could see "haircuts" on the value of holdings of between 20 and 50 percent, analysts reckon.
What will happen is far from clear, however. Many EU officials maintain a restructuring is not on the agenda, especially before 2013, ruling out the threat of sharp haircuts in the short term.
A voluntary rollover of outstanding debt, extending repayment maturities or a mild restructuring are possible and would be less painful.
INCREASED DEFAULTS
"Extensions are potentially the least damaging for the banks," said Nick Firoozye, head of EMEA rates strategy at Nomura. "They don't lower the debt ratio, they're not necessarily that great for Greece but as a first stage they help to smooth the debt profile."
But they could be costly, forcing banks to mark-to-market all their Greek bond positions. Trading book assets have already been marked down and loan provisions have typically been bumped up, but banking book assets are not adjusted for market swings.
About two-thirds of Greek government debt is held overseas, with a big slug in the hands of European banks.
Banks also hold private sector bonds and loans to private firms and the fear is a restructuring will drive defaults up.
French banks are most exposed, even after reducing their holdings in the last year. They had 19.8 billion euros of government bonds and 42.1 billion euros of loans to the private sector, excluding other banks, at the end of September, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
A one-third haircut could cost BNP Paribas 1.6 billion euros on its 5 billion euro of Greek government bonds, and cost SocGen and Franco-Belgian Dexia about 1 billion euros each on their sovereign holdings. A 50 percent write-down would wipe off 12 percent of BNP's expected earnings this year, and 22 percent at SocGen, analysts at RBS estimated.
Credit Agricole had modest exposure of near 600 million euros, but has over 20 billion euros of loans to the country, as it owns Greek bank Emporiki.
BIG WORRY
German lenders held 26.3 billion euros of government bonds at the end of September and had 10 billion euros of exposure to the private sector.
The big worry is the precedent a Greek default would set.
"The aftershock depends a little bit on whether a restructuring is considered to be a heavy touch -- then it will potentially have large-scale contagion effects," Firoozye said.
European banks' exposure to Greece was 154 billion euros at the end of September, easily surpassed by their exposure to other trouble spots like Ireland (565 billion euros of loans, led by German and British banks); Portugal (216 billion euros); and Spain (727 billion euros).
If Greece restructures, "such a U-turn could go down negatively with markets and could unsettle progress in Ireland, Portugal and Spain," said Deutsche Bank analyst Mark Wall.
"The willingness of private investors to recapitalize euro area banks -- both periphery and core -- could decline, reinforcing contagion," Wall said in a note.
With European banks potentially needing to raise over 40 billion euros this year, that would be a worry.
It could also be a blow to this year's "stress test" of 90 banks across Europe.
The test has already been criticized for repeating last year's flaw -- that it will not apply a haircut to sovereign debt held in banking books. That's because the EU has said it's inconceivable that one of its member states would default or have to restructure.
If Greece can't avoid such a scenario, analysts said, the test's credibility could be fatally hit -- undermining the objective of the test to restore investor confidence in banks.
Source Reuters - Balkans.com.
***
Pareri.
http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php...hl=it&q=greece&as_qdr=h&as_drrb=q&cf=all&tt=0 http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php...hl=it&q=greece&as_qdr=h&as_drrb=q&cf=all&tt=0 http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php...hl=it&q=greece&as_qdr=h&as_drrb=q&cf=all&tt=0
Steve Slater and Lionel Laurent LONDON/PARIS - 21.04.2011
A Greek debt restructuring might only cost a handful of French and German banks a few hundred millions euros each, but could undermine this summer's health check of European lenders.
BNP Paribas, Dexia, Societe Generale and Commerzbank are among the biggest holders of Greek bonds, each with 3 billion euros ($4.3 billion) or more.
Pressure is growing on Athens to deal with its mountain of debt and financial markets are betting some form of restructuring is on the cards. A German government adviser said it was unavoidable.
"It might cause pain to individual banks but the system can withstand what could potentially happen in Greece," said Ajay Rawal, senior director for financial industry advisory services at restructuring advisor Alvarez & Marsal.
"What will be more difficult is the uncertainty it would bring ... where does it lead to and where's next? Everyone's very wary of what precedents it might set."
Greece's debt load of 325 billion euros is nearly double the level regarded as sustainable and about half needs to be written off, economists estimate. That could see "haircuts" on the value of holdings of between 20 and 50 percent, analysts reckon.
What will happen is far from clear, however. Many EU officials maintain a restructuring is not on the agenda, especially before 2013, ruling out the threat of sharp haircuts in the short term.
A voluntary rollover of outstanding debt, extending repayment maturities or a mild restructuring are possible and would be less painful.
INCREASED DEFAULTS
"Extensions are potentially the least damaging for the banks," said Nick Firoozye, head of EMEA rates strategy at Nomura. "They don't lower the debt ratio, they're not necessarily that great for Greece but as a first stage they help to smooth the debt profile."
But they could be costly, forcing banks to mark-to-market all their Greek bond positions. Trading book assets have already been marked down and loan provisions have typically been bumped up, but banking book assets are not adjusted for market swings.
About two-thirds of Greek government debt is held overseas, with a big slug in the hands of European banks.
Banks also hold private sector bonds and loans to private firms and the fear is a restructuring will drive defaults up.
French banks are most exposed, even after reducing their holdings in the last year. They had 19.8 billion euros of government bonds and 42.1 billion euros of loans to the private sector, excluding other banks, at the end of September, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
A one-third haircut could cost BNP Paribas 1.6 billion euros on its 5 billion euro of Greek government bonds, and cost SocGen and Franco-Belgian Dexia about 1 billion euros each on their sovereign holdings. A 50 percent write-down would wipe off 12 percent of BNP's expected earnings this year, and 22 percent at SocGen, analysts at RBS estimated.
Credit Agricole had modest exposure of near 600 million euros, but has over 20 billion euros of loans to the country, as it owns Greek bank Emporiki.
BIG WORRY
German lenders held 26.3 billion euros of government bonds at the end of September and had 10 billion euros of exposure to the private sector.
The big worry is the precedent a Greek default would set.
"The aftershock depends a little bit on whether a restructuring is considered to be a heavy touch -- then it will potentially have large-scale contagion effects," Firoozye said.
European banks' exposure to Greece was 154 billion euros at the end of September, easily surpassed by their exposure to other trouble spots like Ireland (565 billion euros of loans, led by German and British banks); Portugal (216 billion euros); and Spain (727 billion euros).
If Greece restructures, "such a U-turn could go down negatively with markets and could unsettle progress in Ireland, Portugal and Spain," said Deutsche Bank analyst Mark Wall.
"The willingness of private investors to recapitalize euro area banks -- both periphery and core -- could decline, reinforcing contagion," Wall said in a note.
With European banks potentially needing to raise over 40 billion euros this year, that would be a worry.
It could also be a blow to this year's "stress test" of 90 banks across Europe.
The test has already been criticized for repeating last year's flaw -- that it will not apply a haircut to sovereign debt held in banking books. That's because the EU has said it's inconceivable that one of its member states would default or have to restructure.
If Greece can't avoid such a scenario, analysts said, the test's credibility could be fatally hit -- undermining the objective of the test to restore investor confidence in banks.
Source Reuters - Balkans.com.
***
Pareri.
- Stato