Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

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Unexpected economic growth in Q1




Greece’s economy expanded in the first quarter of the year providing an unexpected bright spot in the country’s grey economic landscape in a development that will help boost state revenues, according to the government.
However, the European Commision predicted on Friday that Greece’s recession this year will be deeper than it had initially predicted and will send the budget deficit above Greece’s official targets.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, Greece’s 235-billion-euro economy expanded by 0.8 percent in the first three months of the year, after contracting by 2.8 percent in the last quarter of 2010.
It was the first quarterly growth rate seen since the third quarter of 2009.
On an annual basis, ELSTAT said the economy contracted at a 4.8 percent rate on the year, versus economists’ expecations for a decline of between 5.8 percent to seven percent.
The better-than-expected figures were largely the result of strong growth in exports and a relative stabilization in consumer spending, according to economists.
The Finance Ministry said that the recession was showing signs of easing, which should help boost tax collections in the future.
"The recession is becoming significantly shallower,» the ministry said in a statement. «The easing in the recession and the positive rate of growth in the first quarter of the year is also a sign that public revenue will also improve from here on."
The European Commission’s take on Greece was less upbeat as Brussels said in its spring outlook published on Friday that the local economy will shrink 3.5 percent his year, compared with a forecast contraction of 3.0 percent just two months earlier.
The report also said that Greece's budget deficit, excluding planned new austerity measures, would hit 9.5 percent of GDP in 2011, more than two percentage points above the 7.4 percent goal set out in this year's budget.






ekathimerini.com , Friday May 13, 2011 (18:29)
 
Per chi crede nella ristrutturazione del debito greco.

Per chi crede che la ristrutturazione del debito è oramai una cosa certa ho fatto alcuni semplici e forse banali calcoli da cui si possono notare le diverse implicazioni sul livello del debito delle varie percentuali di decurtazione del nominale. Io comunque rimango fiducioso.

Valori in mld di euro e tasso medio sul debito del 5%

% Haircut(0) PIL(220) Debito(330) Entrate(88) Uscite(110) Debito/Pil % (150)
Deficit(22) Deficit/Pil %(10,00)

% Haircut(30) PIL(220) Debito(231) Entrate(88) Uscite(105) Debito/Pil % (105)
Deficit(17) Deficit/Pil %(7,73)

% Haircut(50) PIL(220) Debito(165) Entrate(88) Uscite(102) Debito/Pil % (75)
Deficit(14) Deficit/Pil %(6,36)



% Haircut(70) PIL(220) Debito(99) Entrate(88) Uscite(98) Debito/Pil % (45)
Deficit(10) Deficit/Pil %(4,55)
 
EURO GOVT-Portuguese yields extend falls but Greek woes persist






Fri May 13, 2011 12:24pm EDT

* Two-year Portuguese yields fall as Finland backs bailout
* But uncertainty over new aid for Greece plagues periphery
* Bunds recover on short-covering ahead of weekend
* Italy sells five- and 30-year bonds




By Emelia Sithole-Matarise


LONDON, May 13 (Reuters) - Portuguese two-year government bond yields extended this week's fall after Finland backed a bailout for Lisbon, but lack of clarity over a new rescue package for Greece is expected to keep fringe euro zone debt under pressure.
German Bunds rebounded in late trade as some investors scrambled to cover short positions ahead of the weekend, with some hedge fund selling in Italian and Spanish debt also propping up the euro zone benchmark bonds. Bunds had traded in negative territory for most of the day after strong German and French growth data boosted the appetite for risk.
Portuguese two-year yields PT2YT=TWEB were down 11 bps at 11.44 percent, adding to price gains on Thursday when Finland's True Finns party pulled out of talks to form a government, allaying concerns that the country could veto a rescue plan.
Greek short-dated bond yields GR2YT=TWEBGR5YT=TWEB were 30-70 basis points lower on the day, but the 10-year yield's premium over German Bunds edged out four bps to 1,269 bps.
"You're always going to get a little pullback in spreads because Greece, Ireland and Portugal have been hit quite hard with the spread widening over the past few weeks," a trader said.
"But overall the market still prefers to be short these countries, and the longer the uncertain situation with Greece plays out the more spreads are going to drift wider."
The EU called on Friday for Greece to take additional steps to consolidate public finances this year because it is missing its deficit reduction targets. However, many economists expect some form of extra financing for Greece will be necessary to avoid a debt restructuring.


INVERTED CURVES


Greek, Portuguese and Irish credit default swap curves remain sharply inverted, with Greek one-year CDS around 2,000 bps and five-year CDS at 1,240 bps, according to Markit prices, indicating that the market is expecting a near-term debt default.
Greece is forecast by the European Commission to reach a gross debt burden of over 160 percent of GDP next year and even assuming above trend growth rates, it would still need to generate large primary surpluses for many years before it made inroads into its debt, Markit analyst Gavan Nolan said.
"The markets know this is improbable, hence their reluctance to lend to the country and the current dependence on its EU partners for financing. This situation cannot go on indefinitely, leaving a restructuring of Greece's debt as one of the only viable options," Nolan added.
Euro zone finance ministers meet on Monday although a resolution to the Greek crisis is not anticipated.
"In this context, we see limited disappointment potential left in the near term, while confirmation that a new funding arrangement for Greece is pursued could trigger another spread tightening (for the bailed-out countries)," said Commerzbank rate strategist Marcel Bross.
German Bund futures FGBLM1 settled 12 ticks up at 124.42, having jumped off session lows of 123.82 and with 124.00, the five-day moving average, holding.
"People have been buying on dips in Bunds, and going into the weekend no one wants to be caught short so there's a bit of short-covering... and whilst this uncertainty (over Greece) is still there, the market will be well-supported," another trader said.
Ten-year German yields DE10YT=TWEB were 1.8 basis points lower at 3.077 percent, with two-year yields DE2YT=TWEB unchanged at 1.79 percent.
Earlier, Italy sold 5.2 billion euros of five- and 30-year bonds to decent demand, with the five-year part of the curve relatively cheap compared with other Italian bonds.

The relative cheapness of the five-year bond versus two- and 10-year paper is shown by the barbell, which is at 1 bps versus an average since November of -5 bps, according to Reuters data.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Graphic on Italian 2/5/10 year barbell:
link.reuters.com/qej59r
 
Per chi crede che la ristrutturazione del debito è oramai una cosa certa ho fatto alcuni semplici e forse banali calcoli da cui si possono notare le diverse implicazioni sul livello del debito delle varie percentuali di decurtazione del nominale. Io comunque rimango fiducioso.

Valori in mld di euro e tasso medio sul debito del 5%

% Haircut(0) PIL(220) Debito(330) Entrate(88) Uscite(110) Debito/Pil % (150)
Deficit(22) Deficit/Pil %(10,00)

% Haircut(30) PIL(220) Debito(231) Entrate(88) Uscite(105) Debito/Pil % (105)
Deficit(17) Deficit/Pil %(7,73)

% Haircut(50) PIL(220) Debito(165) Entrate(88) Uscite(102) Debito/Pil % (75)
Deficit(14) Deficit/Pil %(6,36)



% Haircut(70) PIL(220) Debito(99) Entrate(88) Uscite(98) Debito/Pil % (45)
Deficit(10) Deficit/Pil %(4,55)

Un buon colpo d'occhio.
L'haircut risolve il problema debito, ma non il deficit.
 
Per chi crede che la ristrutturazione del debito è oramai una cosa certa ho fatto alcuni semplici e forse banali calcoli da cui si possono notare le diverse implicazioni sul livello del debito delle varie percentuali di decurtazione del nominale. Io comunque rimango fiducioso.

Valori in mld di euro e tasso medio sul debito del 5%

% Haircut(0) PIL(220) Debito(330) Entrate(88) Uscite(110) Debito/Pil % (150)
Deficit(22) Deficit/Pil %(10,00)

% Haircut(30) PIL(220) Debito(231) Entrate(88) Uscite(105) Debito/Pil % (105)
Deficit(17) Deficit/Pil %(7,73)

% Haircut(50) PIL(220) Debito(165) Entrate(88) Uscite(102) Debito/Pil % (75)
Deficit(14) Deficit/Pil %(6,36)



% Haircut(70) PIL(220) Debito(99) Entrate(88) Uscite(98) Debito/Pil % (45)

Deficit(10) Deficit/Pil %(4,55)


Molto interessante grazie.
 
Spagna ha acquisito credibilità, Grecia rispetti piano - Trichet

venerdì 13 maggio 2011 17:44




MADRID, 13 maggio (Reuters) - Il presidente delle Bce Jean-Claude Trichet ha ribadito che la Grecia deve portare a compimento il piano di correzione di conti e non deve essere presa in considerazione alcuna ipotesi di ristrutturazione del debito.
"La Grecia ha fornito un piano, un piano approvato dalla comunità internazionale. Stiamo premendo sui greci perchè proseguano nell'attuazione del piano, che non prevede una ristrutturazione" ha detto Trichet.
Trichet, che ha risposto in inglese a domande poste in spagnolo, ha detto che la Spagna si è guadagnata la credibilità dei mercati attraverso la messa a punto di un piano di riforme, ma deve continuare sulla strada dell'austerity fiscale.
 
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