Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[tommy271]

Greek Banks Post Losses Of 9.6% For Week



The week ended bitterly for the investors, with only one upward meeting and weak trading activity. The General Index recorded cumulative losses of 6.09% for the week, while banks’ losses reached 9.57%.

Medium-term fiscal program remains a “thorn” for the domestic market, as there still pending issues, while political complications lurk in the process of voting in the House.

At the same time, despite the consecutive statements by European officials, the picture of regarding the release of the fifth instalment of the loan to Greece or the possibility of an new aid package to the country is still blur.

The German parliament approved on Friday a possible future aid package to Greece, under the participation of both the International Monetary Fund and the private bondholders. Moreover, the President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy expressed his confidence that the new aid package to Greece will be agreed in late June, while EU representative Amadeu Altafaj Tardio stated that there is no agreement in principle on a new aid to Greece.

Market analysts comment that a change in the short-term trend of the market should not be anticipated, as long as the adoption of specific decisions is still pending, highlighting the importance of these decisions, as the only catalyst to provide a substantial positive impact on the Greek market.

In this context, volatility is expected to continue in the market, particularly in the banking sector, with the risk on the downside.
Across the board, the General Index ended at 1,252.38 units, with losses of 0.81%, after a fluctuation into a margin of 28 units or 2.25%, despite early profits of 1.30%. Approximately 24.19 million units worth €74.07 million (with €21.56 million in pre-agreed trade) were traded on Friday, while a total amount of 70 shares declined, 49 rose and 161 remained unchanged.

Banks closed at session’s low, at 937.47 units, with losses of 2.04%. Only Marfin Popular Bank (+1.61%) and Attica Bank (+1.33%) ended in positive territory, while Piraeus Bank and Proton Bank remained unchanged. On the other hand, ATEbank and Alpha Bank fell by 34.31% and 3.67% respectively.

MIG and Ellaktor topped FTSE20, recording gains of 3.39% and 2.19% respectively. Mytilineos and OPAP moved downwards by 1.63% and 0.87% respectively.

(capital.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Merrill Lynch Still Cautious On Greek Banks



No sign of improvement in the Greek banking sector sees Merrill Lynch, according to a report.

Greek banks recorded better than expected results in the first quarter of 2011, although expectations had been low. Despite this, Merrill Lynch has significantly cut its forecasts because of a weaker volume outlook, and a worse asset quality outlook.

As a result of the lower earnings forecasts and a higher implied probability of a restructuring (looking at CDS spreads), ML has cut price objectives by an average of 25% and maintains a cautious outlook for Greek banks.

Ratings are kept unchanged. Neutral for Alpha Bank and National Bank, Underperform for Eurobank and Piraeus Bank.

Alpha Bank’s target-price is set at €4.2 from €5.2, with Eurobank’s target-price being reduced at €2.7 from €3.8. Target-prices of National Bank and Piraeus Bank have been formed at €5.4 and €1.1 from €7.3 and €1.5 respectively.

Regarding earning per share, Merrill Lynch expects losses of €0.17 for Alpha Bank and Eurobank, €0.54 and €0.05 for National Bank and Piraeus Bank respectively.

Regarding Greek banks’ dependency to European Central Bank, Merrill Lynch believes it would be difficult for Greek banks to materially reduce ECB reliance.

As for risks posed by sovereign exposure, the bank said that at the end of Q1 the large four Greek banks had a total sovereign exposure of €39.7bn, more than 2x their combined NAV.

“Our analysis suggests that a material write-down of the principal would leave the Greek banking system significantly undercapitalised. We don’t think a write-down on the sovereign is a material near term risk, but given significant execution risks in the austerity programme, it cannot be excluded. Until the market is convinced that a write-down scenario is highly unlikely, we don’t see Greek banks re-rating materially”, Merrill Lynch noted.

(capital.gr)

***
Corporate.

 

[tommy271]

Borsa Atene: Aex chiude a -0,8% in scia a borse europee


MILANO (MF-DJ)--L'indice Aex di Atene chiude la seduta in ribasso dello 0,8%, a quota 1252,38 punti, in scia alle principali piazze europee.
Il comparto bancario e' colpito dalle prese di profitto. Ne risentono principalmente National Bank, che cede il 3,1%, e Alpha Bank, con un calo del 3,7%.

 

[Nerone975]

No, le fregature vanno individuate prima acquisendo e soppesando i dati disponibili.
Nel caso della Grecia questi dati davano all'inizio una forte probabilita' di default (dicembre 2009) della quale vi ho tempestivamente avvertito, in seguito la forte probabilita' e' diventata certezza.

Vi state fissando su sto "default", quello è già tecnicamente avvenuto da tempo, solo che i prestiti del FMI e BCE lo hanno evitato praticamente.
Ora si sta cercando di fare in modo che la Grecia realizzi prima possibile un accelerazione delle privatizzazioni e una corposa riduzione delle spese per permettere di avere le basi e tornare sul mercato rifinanziandosi da sola, una insolvenza rovinerebbe l'immagine dell'intera UE e aprirebbe la strada alla speculazione su altri stati. La posta in gioco è molto grande non si lascerà la Grecia al suo destino avrà altri aiuti e presumibilmente anche la partecipazione dei privati in modo "indolore".

 

[tommy271]

Greek Default 'Could Tip' Fragile Bank Funding Market-Fitch

First Published Friday, 10 June 2011 02:55 pm -



By Art Patnaude
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES



LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Fitch Ratings said Friday a Greek default "could tip" the fragile funding market for major European banks, representing a greater risk to the sector than the direct losses that would follow a default from the country.
Speaking at Fitch's global banking conference, managing director Bridget Gandy said concerns about the weaker euro-zone economies are directly related to worries about the ability of large European banks to fund themselves in the open market.
"The funding market is fragile," Gandy said, noting a number of banks are still in a rehabilitation phase. "A default in Greece could tip it."
These "second order risks" stemming from the struggling sovereigns mean the rating outlooks for individual banks are likely to remain either negative or stable for the time being, with little chance of any being moved to positive, she said.
Some major European banks, especially those residing in countries that were hardest hit by the financial crisis, remain reliant on funding from the European Central Bank, indicating the system is still suffering a period of stress.
During the crisis, banks were in part kept solvent with government bailouts that used taxpayers' money. This is something policy makers are trying to avoid happening again.
The evolving regulation attempting to limit government support for banks, however, will also result in lower ratings for weaker European banks, Fitch said.
"As state support erodes, we expect more volatility in bank ratings over the next decade," said Fitch managing director Gerry Rawcliffe at the conference.

 

[tommy271]

Bce diffonde nuovo comunicato su commenti Constancio su Grecia

venerdì 10 giugno 2011 17:57






LONDRA, 10 giugno (Reuters) - La Bce ha emesso un nuovo comunicato del vice-presidente Vitor Constancio per rettificare quello già circolato in giornata, sulla questione del pacchetto di aiuti alla Grecia [ID:nLDE7590R6].
Constancio aveva affermato che nella conferenza stampa di eri il presidente della Bce Trichet aveva solamente escluso l'ipotesi di meccanismi che creino un 'evento creditizio' sulla Grecia.
Il nuovo comunicato di Constancio recita: "Il presidente Trichet ha messo in chiaro che il Consiglio direttivo della Bce esclude tutte le ipotesi che non siano puramente volontarie o che abbiano un elemento d'obbligo, che possano implicare un evento creditizio, o implicare un default o un default sellettivo".
Nel primo comunicato del vice-presidente Bce si leggeva che "il presidente ha escluso molte cose ieri, ma non ha detto di escludere estensioni delle scadenze. Ciò che ha detto è che egli esclude uno schema che possa portare ad un evento creditizio o a un default selettivo".
La Bce sottolinea poi che il suo vice presidente ha ricordato che "qualsiasi cosa succeda, non è una decisione della Bce ma responsabilità dei singoli governi. La Bce applicherà le proprie regole e i propri schemi in riferimento alla solidità delle controparti nelle operazioni di politica monetaria e alla qualità del collaterale accettato in tali operazioni".



***
In italiano.

 

[tommy271]

EURO GOVT-Bunds seen supported by disagreement on Greece






Fri Jun 10, 2011 12:08pm EDT

* Bunds rally on Greek restructuring disagreement
* Peripheral yields rise, including Spain and Italy
* German/periphery spreads seen widening next week



By Marius Zaharia and Kirsten Donovan


LONDON, June 10 (Reuters) - Bunds rallied on Friday as a standoff over what form any restructuring of Greek debt may take continued against the clock, with nerves likely to stretch further next week, keeping upward pressure on peripheral yields.
German lawmakers backed more aid for Greece in a non-binding vote after getting assurances from Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble that private creditors would share the costs of a new rescue package [ID:nLDE7590I5], but the European Central Bank has rejected debt restructuring.[ID:nLDE758146]
The spat is seen continuing next week, with a high risk that consensus is not reached before a June 20 euro zone finance ministers' meeting, which will discuss ways to secure more funding for Greece, a pre-condition for a vital disbursement of the next tranche of its current bailout in July.
"It will be the debate over the precise nature of the Greek bailout which will drive markets next week," said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec.
"If it will be in a form which rating agencies are likely to declare a default then spreads will widen further. Similarly, if there will be no solution acceptable for the ECB the markets will remain nervous. It's possible that you get a flight to safety and the Bund yields fall further below 3 percent."
Bunds have also been supported by a series of downbeat U.S. data which raised worries over the global recovery and swayed investors to trim bets for future interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank beyond that in July signalled on Thursday.
The September futures FGBLU1 were last 68 basis points up on the day at 125.86, while benchmark ten-year yields DE10YT=TWEB were 6 basis points lower at 2.966 percent.



SOMETHING HAS TO GIVE
Greek bond yields were up to 60 bps higher, with the short end of the curve leading the selloff. Reuters calculations from Markit show 5-year credit default swaps reflecting a 74 percent default probability based on a 41 percent recovery rate.
"The market is still ultimately pushing for a restructuring," said Lloyds Bank strategist Eric Wand.
Euro zone sources told Reuters on Thursday the deal would total about 120 billion euros, but analysts have said the plan still represents a liquidity solution to a solvency problem. "With the German government making it clear that bondholders have to share the pain, something has to give," said Gary Jenkins, head of fixed income at Evolution Securities.
"If they are not careful it might be Greece via the worst case scenario, which would be an uncontrolled default."
An "uncontrolled" default would mean the sovereign missing a payment on its debt when due, whereas an orderly restructuring or similar would be agreed by politicians, the IMF and the ECB.
The stronger peripheral states were hurt as well. The Spanish 10-year yield spread over Bunds was 7 basis points wider at 248 bps, approaching the critical 250-255 bps region, which has provided strong resistance in the past.
Similarly, outright 10-year yields ES10YT=TWEB -- which have risen around 20 basis points this week -- at 5.49 percent look set to test the top of their trading range at 5.60 percent.
"Key now will be whether these levels trigger buying interest from range traders or whether we break through, thereby providing a meaningful signal of spreading contagion," said Rabobank rate strategist Richard McGuire.
Investec's Shaw said "the panic trigger" in terms of spread levels was still far away as they were way below the 300 bps hit in November 2010.
With Spain and Italy tapping debt markets next week, which marks a record seven-day issuance schedule so far for 2011, peripheral spreads are likely to remain under pressure.
"Spain could be tricky, a 15-year sale is brave, especially as it's not the most liquid point on most curves any more, but it shows they are not afraid to go for it," WestLB strategist Michael Leister said, adding he expected the auction to be supported by domestic demand and the dealer community.

 

[discipline]

In attesa di qualche nuova sorpresa del venerdì e tanto per farsi un'idea dell'umore da quelle parti.. non è un articolo di giornale né il parere di qualche accademico, ma il greco di prima, circa l'ipotesi di uscita dall'euro.

We don’t expect to switch back to drachma since that would be the best scenario for the people but not for the big German and American companies that are involved in the so called ‘’crisis’’.Switching to drachma should also be followed by declaring the debt as illegal (it is illegal because it has been paid more than 4 times),as you imagine that is not in interest of the big powers because with this debt they manage to get a lot of profits.

The loan agreement that has been signed in 2010 says among others that Greece surrenders its national dominance in case that a loan is not paid in time.Such type of loan agreement of course is illegal and has never been signed by any country in the modern history not even in a war time.

As I told you in the first email ,all this situation is the first test and if it works , there will be others to come soon and first of all the rest Southern European countries. Of course all this is not described by the popular media ,it’s the same thing that happens in Italy with Berlusconi that owns all the media.

The only promising is that people slowly slowly start to wake up and protesting in central squares across the country. Last Sunday in Athens there were more than 500.000 people protesting against the government and the International Monetary Fund.The same thing happens in other southern countries such as Spain.

I really don’t know where all this will end but I don’t thing that will be good for us.By saying us I mean all southern countries.

 

[tommy271]

UPDATE 1-Greek PM rebuffs austerity opponents, vows June vote






Fri Jun 10, 2011 12:32pm EDT

* Papandreou says fresh austerity measures necessary
* EU officials targeting new bailout
* May decide in Sept to cut VAT, corporate taxes - finmin
(Adds start of debate in parliament, quotes)


By Dina Kyriakidou and Harry Papachristou


ATHENS, June 10 (Reuters) - The Greek government defended its new austerity package from attacks in parliament on Friday, saying it was the only way to stave off bankruptcy, and made a new call for opposition parties to back the plan.
Prime Minister George Papandreou's plan almost doubles the belt-tightening measures for 2011 already agreed with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, after the lenders judged that Athens had missed goals outlined under its bailout.
The ruling Socialist party has 156 deputies in the 300-seat house but growing numbers of its members are expressing unease at proposals including cutting spending and raising taxes to reduce the deficit by 6.5 billion euros more this year than first planned.
Papandreou is anxious to pass the plan for more austerity through 2015 despite strikes, mass street protests and dissident voices within his own ruling Socialist party.
"The medicine is not pleasant and the treatment requires devotion and commitment," he told parliament.
"No prime minister of any country wants to go out with a beggar's tray and collect money from other countries ... I certainly don't, but I do it for Greece."
Papandreou is fighting to get not only opposition parties but also his reluctant PASOK party behind the strategy, a condition for receiving more aid from international lenders who threw Greece a 110 billion euro ($160 billion) emergency funding lifeline last year.



PROTESTS AT PARLIAMENT
According to a weekly schedule released by parliament, lawmakers will start debating the midterm plan in the chamber's economic affairs committee on Wednesday.
That will coincide with a nationwide strike by labour unions expected to draw tens of thousands of demonstrators to Syntagma square, parliament's front stoop and the site of two weeks of nightly grassroots protests.
The square is also the convergence point of daily marches by staff in firms earmarked for privatisation who oppose the government's pledge to raise 50 billion euros in the selloff of state-owned companies by 2015.
In a televised address to the nation, Papandreou invited proposals for the plan from opposition parties and called for cooperation to improve Athens' position in talks with Brussels ahead of a June 23-24 EU summit.
"I call on the leadership of all parties to cooperate," he said in a televised announcement. "There are many and important points where we converge. With a national consensus, we can negotiate jointly with our partners."
In a move aimed at reducing resistance by the main opposition New Democracy party to the measures, Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said the government was considering submitting a new tax bill in September cutting VAT and corporate taxes and said he hoped parliament would approve the mid-term plan by the end of June.
The IMF and EU have demanded wider political consensus in Greece before they give the debt-ridden euro zone member more cash. But the main opposition groups have vowed to vote against the new measures, saying they are choking economic growth.
"The mid-term plan is unreliable, unjust and ineffective. It is a de facto confession of the failure of the bailout," New Democracy party spokesman Yannis Michelakis said in a statement.
European officials are still trying to work out a plan which hits private investors for some of the cost of the new funding plan, expected to be worth around an additional 120 billion euros including 30 billion from sales of Greek state assets.
Figures on Thursday showed the economy is in worse shape than initially feared, with gross domestic product tumbling 5.5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter.

 

[Nobody's]

Bce diffonde nuovo comunicato su commenti Constancio su Grecia

venerdì 10 giugno 2011 17:57






LONDRA, 10 giugno (Reuters) - La Bce ha emesso un nuovo comunicato del vice-presidente Vitor Constancio per rettificare quello già circolato in giornata, sulla questione del pacchetto di aiuti alla Grecia [ID:nLDE7590R6].
Constancio aveva affermato che nella conferenza stampa di eri il presidente della Bce Trichet aveva solamente escluso l'ipotesi di meccanismi che creino un 'evento creditizio' sulla Grecia.
Il nuovo comunicato di Constancio recita: "Il presidente Trichet ha messo in chiaro che il Consiglio direttivo della Bce esclude tutte le ipotesi che non siano puramente volontarie o che abbiano un elemento d'obbligo, che possano implicare un evento creditizio, o implicare un default o un default sellettivo".
Nel primo comunicato del vice-presidente Bce si leggeva che "il presidente ha escluso molte cose ieri, ma non ha detto di escludere estensioni delle scadenze. Ciò che ha detto è che egli esclude uno schema che possa portare ad un evento creditizio o a un default selettivo".
La Bce sottolinea poi che il suo vice presidente ha ricordato che "qualsiasi cosa succeda, non è una decisione della Bce ma responsabilità dei singoli governi. La Bce applicherà le proprie regole e i propri schemi in riferimento alla solidità delle controparti nelle operazioni di politica monetaria e alla qualità del collaterale accettato in tali operazioni".



***
In italiano.

Per quel che mi riguarda e difficile interpretarlo positivamente.
Non mi fido.....se fanno come l' hanno congegnato.....per me si va dritti all ' inferno.....pareri......